Weekend Predictions: Falcons open season with loss to Buccaneers
Georgia, Georgia Tech and Weekend Predictions all started the 2025 season with victories. My performance was the most impressive of the three. Colorado and Marshall are weaker foes than my creeping self-doubts.
I’m a winner again. My picks against the spread in Week 1 were 6-5. Not that I’m bragging about barely clearing the break-even bar. The Falcons might boast if they pull that off for the first time in eight years. It depends on if the rest of the NFC South finally is terrible enough for them to finish on top.
Georgia is hosting Austin Peay this weekend. Tech welcomes Gardner-Webb. No picks by me because there’s no consensus point spreads for games featuring Power 4 versus Football Championship Subdivision teams. If either game is interesting, then something went terribly wrong for one of the home teams.
Buccaneers (-1½) at Falcons
The Buccaneers are the anti-Falcons. Everything always works out for them somehow. They stumbled into Tom Brady, who somehow wasn’t washed up. They signed Baker Mayfield, who somehow was good. They lost twice to the Falcons in 2024 yet somehow made the playoffs.
I still have visions of the Falcons lighting up the Bucs for 550 and 394 yards. But that was with peak Kirk Cousins; now it’s neophyte Michael Penix Jr. Tampa Bay’s injury report includes its best defensive lineman (Vita Vea), best offensive lineman (Tristan Wirfs) and No. 2 wide receiver (Chris Godwin Jr.). I’m still picking the Bucs to cover.
Kennesaw State (+35½) at Indiana
All it took was one great season out of 126 for Indiana to get the benefit of the doubt. This line seems inflated. The Hoosiers beat Old Dominion by only 13 points while gaining 502 yards and forcing three turnovers. My instincts were right about KSU (undervalued) at Wake Forest (overrated) in Week 1. The Owls deserve more respect from the market after that very good defensive effort. I’m backing them to cover again.
Memphis (-13½) at Georgia State
Florida State’s win over Alabama jolted my memory of Mike Norvell being a good coach not long ago. Norvell won big at Memphis before going to Tallahassee. Successor Ryan Silverfield has the Tigers once again scoring a lot of points and winning a lot of games. The Panthers couldn’t stop Ole Miss in Week 1. I don’t see them doing much better this week. I’m taking the road favorite.
Other college games of interest
Troy (-33½) at No. 8 Clemson
After LSU won at Clemson in Week 1, coach Dabo Swinney gave the visitors a grade of 65 and his team a 58. LSU coach Brian Kelly took exception, noting that his Tigers dominated in the second half. I’m siding with Swinney. A passing grade isn’t necessary to beat Clemson in Death Valley anymore. The Tigers tend to follow offensive clunkers with big numbers. I like them to cover.
No. 11 Illinois (-2½) at Duke
The Blue Devils were tied at halftime with FCS opponent Elon last weekend before rolling to a 45-17 victory. “What we almost always talk about at halftime no matter what the score is, we said it’s 0-0,” Duke coach Manny Diaz told reporters. No wonder his guys were fired up. This line seems right. I usually lean home ‘dog in such cases. Duke is my pick.
No. 15 Michigan (+5½) at No. 18 Oklahoma
Cheating is worth it for marquee programs that draw big TV audiences. That’s why a $30 million fine is the harshest penalty Michigan received from the NCAA for its sign-stealing scandal. Small price to pay for a national championship. Oklahoma play caller Ben Arbuckle helped former three-star QB John Mateer become a star at Washington State, then brought Arbuckle to Norman with him. I’ll take the Sooners and give the points.
No. 20 Ole Miss (-9½) at Kentucky
Since the start of the 2020 season, only Georgia (37-4) and Alabama (36-6) have more SEC wins than Ole Miss (25-16). Bad losses hold Lane Kiffin’s program back. Last year, it was a defeat to Kentucky that essentially kept the Rebels out of the playoff. “The game being at 11 a.m. made it worse because the game was over around 2 p.m. and you can’t go to sleep yet,” Kiffin told 247Sports, reminding everyone that he’s 50 years old now. Revenge is one thing Kiffin does consistently well. Ole Miss covers.
Other NFL games of interest
Cardinals (-6½) at Saints
Nola.com’s Matthew Paras writes that new Saints coach Kellen Moore “doesn’t have to be” like Sean Payton. Good to know that being insufferable isn’t a prerequisite for the job. General manager Mickey Loomis still has his job after botching the post-Payton years. His increasingly desperate search for a competent QB after Drew Brees retired landed on Spencer Rattler. I like the Cardinals to cover.
Panthers (+3½) at Jaguars
The headline at Panthers.com reads: “How Bryce Young got his smile back.” I thought I’d missed the news of him getting traded. It turns out Young is “creating his own joy” while playing QB for one of the few franchises more miserable than the Falcons. The Jags might be OK if Trevor Lawrence’s spirits aren’t crushed by a terrible organization. I’m banking on Lawrence playing well enough for Jacksonville to cover.
Vikings (-1½) at Bears
The Vikings won more games with Sam Darnold (14) in 2024 than they did in any of the five years with Cousins as starter (at one-fifth the cap hit). Minnesota decided to let Darnold walk in free agency and turn to J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie season with a knee injury. I have more belief in McCarthy playing a calm game than Bears QB Caleb Williams. Vikings are the pick.
Ravens (-1½) at Bills
Falcons fans can watch Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and wonder what might have been if Arthur Blank cared more about winning than labor costs. Jackson’s career-best season in 2024 ended with another bitter playoff loss to the Bills, who also beat him in 2021. I don’t see him getting payback this time. I’m siding with the home ‘dog.
Last week: 6-5. Season: 6-5.
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