On Tuesday evening, from high above the field in the Truist Park press box, a Braves pitching icon watched Spencer Strider get pummeled.
Hall of Famer Tom Glavine, who helped call the game for FanDuel Sports Network, believes Strider will pitch effectively after returning from his second surgery to repair damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. It just may not happen soon.
“I think he will get there,” Glavine told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution in the broadcast booth before Wednesday’s Braves-Diamondbacks game. “But it’s going to take a little time. … The biggest thing he can do for himself right now is be patient, give himself some grace.”
Tuesday’s start was Strider’s fourth of the season and third since he returned from the injured list with a hamstring strain. In two of them, he’s given the Braves a fair shot at winning.
But Tuesday’s game, in which he threw five innings and gave up five runs — including three home runs — revealed command issues and velocity that continued to be short of what he routinely hit before the elbow injury in April 2024.
Most notably, his four-seam fastball velocity average has averaged 95 mph, down from his 2023 average of 97 mph and 98 in 2022.
“I don’t know if he will (regain his velocity) or not,” Glavine said. “I hope he does. But right now he’s not.”
The difference has been costly. Two of Tuesday’s home runs were on 95 mph fastballs over the heart of the plate. Before the injury, when his command and fastball were better, Strider generally avoided such damage.
In his dominant 2023 season, when he set the Braves’ single-season strikeout record for the modern era, he threw 640 four-seam fastballs at his average speed (97 mph) or better that batters swung at, according to Statcast. One of every 58 swings generated a barrel contact.
Thus far, he’s thrown 60 at his average (95 mph) or better that prompted swings. One in every 15 has been barreled. As a result, his ERA is 5.68 (for his career, it’s 3.59) and his average exit velocity is among the worst in the league, ranked in the first percentile.
“I think it’s obviously a case like (Strider) said, where the stuff’s not quite the same and maybe some poor location, that 100 mph, you get away with, but — I know it’s strange for me to even say this — at 95, maybe you don’t,” said Glavine, whose own fastball spun with much less pace but was serviceable enough to help him become a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
As a result, Strider has to readjust his strategy.
“I hope he’s able to get back to where he was,” Glavine said. “For now, when you have that in your mind that you can’t do what you’re accustomed to doing, you’ve got to figure out a way to make it work with what you have.”
It won’t be easy. For Strider, his elite fastball served a dual purpose.
“His secondary stuff was so good before because he was able to throw 100 mph and throw strikes at 100 mph,” Glavine said. “So for a hitter to hit 100, they had to cheat, honestly. You start cheating on 100, and you get a slider — not a good swing. Maybe the hitters don’t feel like they have to cheat as much to get to 95, so they can recognize that slider a little bit more or lay off the slider a little bit more.”
To Glavine, the answer is throwing the fastball effectively inside, which makes it harder for hitters to hit secondary pitches. In Strider’s case, that’s primarily his slider.
It falls into the category of “easier said than done.” It takes repetition and, normally, it’s harder for a pitcher to throw inside on his “arm side” — for right-handed pitchers, the inside corner for right-handed batters, and vice versa.
“You’ve got to learn to get comfortable going to that uncomfortable side,” Glavine said.
The two-time Cy Young Award winner and 10-time All-Star was confident Strider could make the adjustment.
“He seems to be really in tune with what he does and what he’s doing,” Glavine said. “I like his mechanics, I like what he does. So I think that, with just a little bit of practice and paying attention to detail, so to speak, I think he can make some vast improvements.”
Strider is nothing if not methodical but also holds himself to high standards. It doesn’t help the situation that the Braves are fighting to stay in the postseason chase.
“I don’t have the ability to be patient, honestly,” Strider said Tuesday after his start. “We’ve got to win games, and when it’s my turn to pitch, I’ve got to give us a chance to win. If I can’t do that, then I don’t know what value I’m providing besides reps.”
Strider is scheduled to pitch Sunday at San Francisco.
“He’s just got to get himself to buy into that, ‘Yes, your stuff is a little diminished at the moment, but it’s still plenty good to get guys out,’” Glavine said. “And he’s got to believe in that.”
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