How Keisha Lance Bottoms is making inroads in rural Georgia

Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms beat six opponents in the May Democratic primary for governor, winning 56% of the vote and avoiding a runoff.

But to win in November, she will need to make gains outside of the core metro Atlanta counties where previous Democratic nominees have fallen short.

Bottoms’ primary results are a strong starting point. She was the leading vote-getter in 158 out of Georgia’s 159 counties and performed better in some areas outside of metro Atlanta than she did in the state as a whole.

“A lot of our members feel hopeful in a way they haven’t felt in a while,” said Courtney Bruder, chair of the Cherokee County Democrats.

But cutting into Republican margins in rural Georgia enough to win the state will be much harder — something Democrat Stacey Abrams wasn’t able to accomplish in the last two election cycles.

Abrams, a former state representative and founder of the voting rights organization Fair Fight Action, ran for governor in 2018 and 2022 but lost to Gov. Brian Kemp both times.

In both elections, Abrams beat Kemp in counties with populations greater than 50,000. But in Georgia counties with smaller, more rural populations, Kemp took an overwhelming percentage of the vote, beating Abrams roughly four to one. Even a modest improvement among voters outside of the larger, more urban areas of the state could have swung either election for Democrats.

In this year’s primary, Bottoms outperformed her Democratic opponents in rural and suburban counties. Bottoms posted strong numbers in rural counties such as Coffee, Lee, Thomas, Tift and Ware — places where Democrats have historically struggled in statewide general elections.

Riding the high from her primary performance in rural Georgia, Bottoms launched her post-primary campaign in Albany — and has drawn large crowds in her visits to nearly a dozen counties that were won by President Donald Trump in the last three elections.

Democrats in these exurban, conservative counties are mobilizing aggressively and they’ve been rewarded with more attention from the Bottoms’ campaign.

“I think (Bottoms) stands a better chance of getting more votes (in Cherokee County) than Stacey Abrams did,” Bruder said.

Bruder added that Cherokee, one of the largest Republican counties in the state, has Democratic candidates contesting every state House and Senate seat for the first time in years. She thinks voter enthusiasm from those races will help Bottoms chip away at Republican margins.

Forsyth County, another Republican stronghold, is also seeing more activity from Democrats.

“If you think of Georgia as a battleground state, Forsyth is the front line of that battle,” said Kannan Udayarajan, chair of Forsyth County Democrats. “Cutting into Republican margins is already happening, regardless of the candidate.”

County Democratic chairs believe frustration with Republican leadership is fueling Democratic enthusiasm, citing the closure of rural hospitals, the state’s decision not to expand Medicaid and the rising costs of living. Democrats hope to capitalize on that frustration with a robust voter turnout effort.

“I do believe we will see a big turnout,” said Joshua Wilkerson, chair of Appling County Democrats. “We’re in a wave where a lot of people are excited about a change, and I think the way to keep that up is we continue to have more boots on the ground and more hands on deck.”

While political strategists agree that tallying up the vote in rural Georgia is vital to a Bottoms win, they warn she cannot win without an overwhelming vote in metro Atlanta.

Bottoms is running in tandem with U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff. Here, she engages in conversation with an attendee at their joint rally on June 27 in Savannah. (Sarah Peacock for the AJC)

While she received more than 70% of the vote in some rural counties, her victory was 8 points smaller on her home turf, Fulton County, than her statewide margin. Republican strategist Steven Lawson described that as “alarming.”

“The concerning thing for her in the general election is that one of the counties that she did the worst in is the most populous county in the state,” he said. And it’s in Fulton where voters know her best, he said.

Lawson said Republicans view Bottoms’ tenure as Atlanta’s mayor as her biggest roadblock in getting suburban Atlanta voters to support her, voters that he says are starting to connect with Republican nominee Rick Jackson’s message.

“She performed really well — better than Abrams — outside of metro Atlanta, but she’s going to have to take care of home first,” Democratic strategist Fred Hicks said. “Get the city, get Fulton County and get metro Atlanta.”

Hicks thinks Bottoms’ campaign is in better shape compared with Abrams. She’s running in tandem with U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, has the endorsement from her primary opponent Jason Esteves and is growing rapport with Black male voters. Bottoms is talking directly to Black men “more than Stacey Abrams ever did,” according to Hicks.

Bottoms needs to run an aggressive, visible and statewide campaign that does not take any Democratic voter for granted, he said.