Polls suggest different trajectories for Georgia’s top races

Today’s newsletter highlights:

• Georgia’s tax collections fell nearly 7% in June, but caveats abound.
• Millennial and Gen Z lawmakers from 34 states join forces at a conference this week.
• President Donald Trump could spend some time this afternoon signing legislation into law.

Contrasting contests

Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff (left) and Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins (Arvin Temkar/AJC)

Two new surveys suggest Georgia’s marquee statewide races are following different trajectories.

A Wick Research poll released Wednesday shows the governor’s race is essentially deadlocked, with Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms both at around 43%. But in the Senate contest, Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff holds a 47-43 advantage over Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins. At least 10% of voters are undecided in both.

A separate Fox News poll released last week points in the same general direction on the Senate race, giving Ossoff a wider 56-43 lead over Collins. But it differs sharply in the governor’s contest, putting Bottoms with a 52-47 edge over Jackson.

It’s too early to read much into polls, particularly at a time when all four campaigns are using the post-runoff stretch to prepare for the coming blitz. But Ossoff’s early edge is no surprise, and Collins isn’t sweating it.

“We’ve just begun to compare resumes. It’s as easy as that,” he said on Fox News. “The choice in this race couldn’t be more crystal clear.”

Things to know

Students walk through the University of Georgia campus. (Miguel Martinez/AJC 2025)

Good morning! Here are three things to know for today:

• A federal judge’s decision to block a subpoena seeking the identities of thousands of Fulton County’s 2020 election workers is the latest in a string of defeats for the U.S. Department of Justice, Caleb Groves reports.
• The University of Georgia is reviewing its African American studies major because of low enrollment, Jason Armesto reports.
• Former Georgia Supreme Court Chief Justice Harold Melton is joining the Georgia State University College of Law, Rosie Manins reports.

Budget watch

Georgia’s new fiscal year began July 1. (Photo illustration by Broly Su/AJC)

Georgia’s tax collections were down nearly 7% in June compared to last year. But caveats abound.

First, Georgia didn’t collect gas taxes for the first three days of June after Gov. Brian Kemp extended a suspension amid surging prices caused by the war in Iran. If you take away those numbers, Georgia’s June revenues fell less than 1% compared to last year.

Second, Georgia’s income tax collections — its single largest source of revenue — were down 6.7% compared to last year. Much of that decrease is because of a surge in tax refunds, which were up nearly 71% compared to last year.

Third, sales tax collections were up 8% compared to last year, bringing in an extra $126.6 million.

Georgia’s new fiscal year began July 1. Georgia ended the 2026 fiscal year with revenues of $33.75 billion, an increase of 0.4% compared to last year.

Generation bridge

State House Rep. Dar’shun Kendrick, D-Lithonia, stands inside the state Capitol. (Arvin Temkar/AJC 2023)

Millennial and Gen Z lawmakers from 34 states are joining forces this week for a conference focused on “building bridges across political and ideological divides.”

Seven Georgia House members are attending:

• Akbar Ali, D-Lawrenceville.
• Imani Barnes, D-Tucker.
• Bryce Berry, D-Atlanta.
• Dar’shun Kendrick, D-Lithonia.
• Martin Momtahan, R-Dallas.
• Jordan Ridley, R-Chatsworth.
• Steven Sainz, R-St. Marys.

Barnes, Kendrick and Sainz all have featured speaking slots. The conference runs through Saturday and features a hands-on “lab” with representatives from TikTok and OpenAI to discuss using social media and artificial intelligence for constituent outreach, policy research and staffing.

Listen up

AJC reporter Riley Bunch interviews Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens last year. (Miguel Martinez/AJC)

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast the AJC’s Riley Bunch and Tamar Hallerman join the show to talk about new laws taking effect this year and how the state is still dealing with the political fallout from the 2020 presidential election.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Clock is ticking

President Donald Trump signs a presidential memo to the Environmental Protection Agency in the Oval Office of the White House last month. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)

Trump’s schedule for Thursday indicates he will spend some time this afternoon signing legislation into law.

We’ll know soon whether that includes the bipartisan housing bill that has been in limbo ever since the president’s 11th hour decision to cancel an event at the Capitol to celebrate it becoming law. Instead, Trump said he was withdrawing support in protest of the Senate’s failure to pass a law overhauling elections that includes requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote and restricts the use of voting by mail.

Trump has until Friday to either sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act into law, veto it or allow it to become law without his signature. Trump was noncommittal when asked Wednesday what he planned to do.

“I’ll make a decision,” he said. “Not that I dislike it, I dislike the fact that people aren’t voting for voter ID with a picture. How could you not vote for vote ID?”

Today in Washington

• Trump has no public events on his schedule.
• The House and Senate are out this week.

Try again

A house in the Hog Hammock community on Sapelo Island, seen here in 2024. (Justin Taylor for the AJC)

Sometimes in politics, it’s a lot easier to stop something than it is to start something. That’s what’s happening in McIntosh County.

The Gullah Geechee on Sapelo Island got so angry at the county commission’s rules for what could be built there that they convinced voters to overturn the rules. But since then, local officials have struggled to figure out what the rules should be at all.

The McIntosh County Planning and Zoning Commission’s latest attempt failed earlier this week. Our friends at The Current reported the proposal would have capped house sizes at 1,800 square feet. But with allowable roof height of 35 feet, homes could be larger. The previous law that voters rejected would have allowed two-story homes of 3,000 square feet.