Georgia Republicans are trying to hold onto power. Trump isn’t helping.

On any given day, Georgia’s politics still feel a little more red than blue. A Democrat has not won a governor’s race since 1998, and Republicans have dominated statewide offices for more than two decades. Most counties outside of metro areas are Republican top-to-bottom, too, even in positions that are otherwise nonpartisan.

Apart from the uphill race to defeat Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, the 2026 elections still seem like Republicans’ to lose. But President Donald Trump isn’t making it easy.

The AJC’s latest poll shows exactly what Republicans are up against as they try to get their message out to voters while competing with the roller coaster news cycles dominated by the president.

Although 60% of likely Republican voters in the poll said they still “strongly approve” of how Trump is handling his job, that’s down 9 points from 69% last October.

Many of those Republicans now “somewhat approve” of the president, while the Republicans who “somewhat” or “strongly” disapprove are both slightly up. Meanwhile, likely Democratic primary voters are more unified than ever, with 95% of them saying they strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump. That’s up from October.

Even small fluctuations in how voters feel about the president can have big impacts in a close election — even one when Trump isn’t on the ballot — because voters never make political decisions in a vacuum.

During the two weeks before the AJC poll was in the field, for example, the war in Iran raged as the president threatened to end “an entire civilization” if the country did not surrender.

A ceasefire was struck, but the president’s threats brought worldwide pushback, including from Pope Leo XIV, whom Trump later lambasted as “weak on crime.” The president then posted an image of himself as a Christ-like figure, which he later said was meant to portray him as a doctor. Was he supposed to be Jesus or a doctor? Everyone had an opinion.

Trump-related news dominated while the AJC poll was in the field, too. As Iran refused to allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump posted an image renaming it the “Strait of Trump.”

Gas and oil prices spiked. Stocks surged. Millions nationally — and 350,000 in Georgia — dropped off Obamacare. Trump’s labor secretary resigned. Shots rang out at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in another apparent attempt to assassinate Trump. All in one week. Are you exhausted? Everybody else is.

The 2026 warning signs for Republicans in Georgia started last year when Democrats not only won two Public Service Commission races for the first time in decades, but they ran away with them by 25 points.

Next, Democrat Eric Gisler picked up a surprise special election for a state House seat outside of Athens in an otherwise safe Trump district. U.S. Rep. Clay Fuller won the race to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s open House seat, but every county in the district trended more Democratic in the process.

Even as local Republicans in Georgia have been pushing economic issues and cost-of-living fixes, the president has continued to focus on things like the war in Iran, a potential takeover of Cuba, building his new ballroom, and nearly anything else other than bringing down gas prices and people’s bills.

Even though Georgia is already more than a week into early voting, the president called on Republicans to call a special session to redraw congressional lines after a U.S. Supreme Court decision that drastically weakened the Voting Rights Act.

“If they have to vote twice, so be it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Several Republicans in Georgia, including U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter and Rick Jackson, jumped on the bandwagon. And internal fight among GOP activists has broken out in the process.

Speaking of early voting, Georgians have already broken turnout records for a midterm election, with ballots jumping 28% over the same point in 2022. Among those who voted, Democrats outpaced Republicans by about 30,000 votes or nearly 30%.

It doesn’t mean Democrats will win Georgia in November. But it does mean, like the PSC races, the Athens House race and the 14th District contest, that they’ve got the wind at their backs.