Republican Jason Dickerson easily defeated Democrat Debra Shigley in a state Senate race last month, winning 61% of the vote in the conservative-leaning district covering portions of Fulton and Cherokee counties.
But the win doubled as a warning for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms. Shigley improved 9 percentage points in the suburban Atlanta district over how Democrats did there in November, an impressive gain that has worried some within the GOP.
“Republicans having to play defense in a ‘safe’ district is a sure sign that they’ll continue struggling to defend their toxic agenda all the way through 2026,” Charlie Bailey, chair of the Democratic Party of Georgia, said in a statement.
Five Democrats came close to winning seats in the state House of Representatives last year. Democrats only need to flip nine seats to win control of the chamber for the first time since 2004.
There are 180 seats in the Georgia House, and Republicans hold 100 of them. They also have 32 out of 56 seats in the Senate. Every seat is up for reelection in 2026, but only a handful are considered competitive.
Here are the districts that voters could flip to Democrats next year — ones that Republicans, who control both legislative chambers, say they are confident to preserve.
House District 105 (Dacula and Buford)
Incumbent: Republican Sandy Donatucci
2024 margin: 80 votes
Why she could win: Since her narrow win, Donatucci has been appointed to lead a committee studying ways to improve health access. She has also supported cityhood for Mulberry in Gwinnett County, which falls largely in her district.
Why she could lose: The former House member who represented the district, Democrat Farooq Mughal, has announced plans to run again for his old seat. The razor-thin margin suggests the election will be a toss-up.
House District 99 (Duluth, Suwannee, Sugar Hill)
Incumbent: Republican Matt Reeves
2024 Margin: 2 percentage points
Why he could win: Reeves talks regularly with the district’s large Asian population. After the Hyundai raid, which upset many Korean Americans, Reeves met with leaders in the district to discuss what’s next and how he could address guest workers. And, as voters keep affordability top of mind, Reeves is overseeing a committee to study car, health and home insurance rates.
Why he could lose: Reeves could face a rematch against his Democratic opponent, Michelle Kang, who is Korean. Having already run against him once, Kang could adjust her approach. Her campaign focuses on kitchen-table issues like child care and the high rents and property taxes in the district.
House District 53 (Buckhead, Roswell, Sandy Springs)
Incumbent: Republican Deborah Silcox
2024 Margin: 4 percentage points
Why she could win: In a swing district, Silcox has focused her attention on nuts-and-bolts legislation rather than politicized, red-meat bills that play to the GOP base. She has also bucked her party on key issues. She was one of just two House Republicans to vote against the “religious liberty” bill that some viewed as discriminatory. And she has prioritized concerns related to the large Jewish community in her district, supporting legislation to prevent disruptions at houses of worship.
Why she could lose: Silcox lost her seat once before, back in 2020, although the district lines have been slightly reshaped since then to better protect her. Her chances of keeping that seat may depend on who from the Democratic side steps up to run against her.
Senate District 48 (Johns Creek, Sugar Hill and parts of Forsyth County)
Incumbent: Republican Shawn Still
2024 Margin: 7 percentage points
Why he could win: Despite a well-funded candidate who made Still’s indictment in the 2020 election interference case the focus of his campaign, Still came out on top in November. Now, many legal observers believe the charges against Still (and the other GOP electors who are defendants in the case) likely will be dropped. In the Legislature, Still has focused on bipartisan issues like protecting children from harmful online content.
Why he could lose: Democrats have been eyeing Forsyth County as an opportunity to make gains, bringing in national figures to campaign for the Kamala Harris presidential campaign last year. Democrat Nathan Hombroek, an executive with a data analytics company, is running for the seat in 2026.
House District 48 (Johns Creek, Peachtree Corners, Roswell)
Incumbent: Republican Scott Hilton
2024 Margin: 10 percentage points
Why he could win: Hilton performed the best among the competitive districts in metro Atlanta, due in part to both his dogged door-knocking and name recognition in the community. He’s just outside the margin Shigley grew for Democrats.
Why he could lose: Although there are rumors Hilton may run for a statewide office, he has said he’s likely to run for reelection in his North Atlanta district. If he decides otherwise, a Democrat may have a better chance in an open competition.
Republican pickups
Although the opposing political party typically picks up seats during midterm elections, it’s not a guarantee. Several Democrats also had close races last year, and Republicans are hoping to retake more of those swing districts.
“We see a lot of great pickup opportunities for Republicans,” said Carmen Bergman, the executive director of the Georgia House Republicans. “We’re on the offense.”
In the Georgia House those include Democrats Mack Jackson of Sandersville, who won by just 45 votes last year, and Tangie Herring of Macon, who won her race by less than 1 percentage point. Both Jackson and Herring supported Republican-led priorities this year, which could court swing voters.
Patty Marie Stinson from Butler and Floyd Griffin from Milledgeville also won close races.
Finally, Jasmine Clark won reelection last year by 8 percentage points over her Republican competitor. But Clark has announced plans to challenge U.S. Rep. David Scott for his seat in Congress, leaving that Lilburn-centered state House race wide open.
Staff reporter Tamar Hallerman and presentation specialist Isaac Sabetai contributed to this report.
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