A seven-month, $220 million surge of spending on behalf of mainstream Republican candidates has yielded a primary battle dominated by Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, two candidates reviled by most of the party’s leading donors.
Now, as they approach a pivotal and expensive stage of the campaign, the two insurgent candidates — who have won the first three contests — appear to be in the best position financially to compete in the 12 states that will vote on Super Tuesday, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission on Saturday.
Cruz is the best financed candidate in the Republican race, beginning February with $13.6 million in cash on hand. Trump, a billionaire, has raised millions of dollars from small donors and lent himself millions more, including nearly $5 million in January, a month in which he paid out more than $11.5 million, the most sustained spending of his presidential bid so far.
A rebuke to traditional donor class
The outcome is a rebuke to the party’s traditional donor class, which poured record-breaking amounts of money into the race last spring and summer in the hopes of grooming a nominee with broad national appeal and a chance at winning over more Hispanic and other nonwhite voters. Instead, the candidates backed most lavishly by wealthy establishment-leaning Republican donors burned through much of the cash they accumulated last year, beginning the month deeply depleted. Those remaining in the race Sunday, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, had less than $7 million in cash between them.
Jeb Bush, who entered the race last summer with more money behind him than every other Republican candidate combined, ended his campaign Saturday with just $2.9 million in the bank and a fourth-place finish in South Carolina, a state the Bush family once considered a political stronghold.
Much of the donor class’ money was spent on a shootout among their favored candidates.
Negative advertising
Groups backing Bush, Rubio, Kasich and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey devoted almost three-quarters of the money they spent on negative advertising to attacking each other’s candidates rather than either Trump or Cruz, according to FEC data. The outside group aligned with Bush, Right to Rise, spent an astonishing $34 million in January alone, with little impact on Bush’s own fortunes.
“The establishment GOP is lying to itself. This election at its core is a rejection of their globalist economic agenda and failed immigration policies — and of rule by the donor class,” said Laura Ingraham, a conservative talk-radio host and political activist. “Millions want the party to go in a more populist direction.”
That proposition will be tested in the coming weeks, as Republican donors begin to organize more strategically against Trump.
The anti-Trumpers
Our Principles PAC, a group devoted to highlighting Trump’s past support for Democratic positions like universal health care, higher taxes and abortion rights, is now spending significantly to persuade Republicans that Trump is not a reliable conservative.
On Saturday, FEC filings revealed that Marlene Ricketts, a prominent Republican donor who previously supported the campaign of Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, provided the group with $3 million in January. Richard Uihlein, a wealthy Chicago-area businessman and conservative patron, also contributed to the group.
Katie Packer, a Republican strategist overseeing Our Principles, said that the group’s ads had helped reduce Trump’s margin of victory in South Carolina. “Our hope is that the field will winnow and conservatives will coalesce behind a candidate that believes in conservative principles and can unite the party,” Packer said. “We intend to keep the heat on in Nevada and the March 1 states and as long as it takes for that to occur.”
Smaller bankrolls
Kasich had just $1.4 million on hand at the end of January — virtually dry against the scale of modern presidential campaigns — while Rubio had $5 million, though both campaigns were expected to capitalize on strong showings in the first two contests. After spending tens of millions of dollars between them, the super PAC backing Kasich reported only $2.4 million in cash on hand, while the group backing Rubio had $5.6 million.
Clinton and Sanders
The disparity between traditional and insurgent candidates was echoed to some extent on the Democratic side, where Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont out-raised Hillary Clinton in January by almost $6.5 million — the first reporting period in which his campaign has taken in more money. Virtually all of that money has come from donors giving small checks.
But Sanders also spent heavily to win in New Hampshire and fight Clinton to a virtual tie in Iowa, dropping $35 million in January, reports filed late Saturday showed. He ended the month with less than half as much cash on hand as Clinton. A super PAC backing Clinton, Priorities USA Action, also continues to stockpile cash, reporting $45 million in cash on hand at the end of last month. The group took in almost $10 million in January, including $3.5 million from James H. Simons, a retired hedge fund founder from New York.
'Parting of the Red Sea'
Both Kasich and Rubio are now hoping to take advantage of Bush’s decision to quit the race, leaving them to divvy up his remaining large donors. Both of them have been heavily dependent on donors making large contributions: Kasich raised just 17 percent of his contributions from donors giving $200 or less in January, and Rubio 19 percent.
“South Carolina is the political equivalent of the parting of the Red Sea,” said Theresa Kostrzewa, a Bush fundraiser in North Carolina, who predicted most of Bush’s supporters would flow to Rubio. “Republicans: This is your sign from God.”
Jeff Sadowsky, a spokesman for the pro-Rubio group, Conservative Solutions PAC, said Saturday that he expected the race to “go on for quite some time.” The group is planning to begin what Sadowsky described as a “multistate multimillion dollar advertising effort” on Tuesday.
Kasich strategy bypasses Nevada
Kasich’s chief strategist, John Weaver, told reporters Saturday that Kasich’s fundraising had increased “dramatically” since his second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary, but did not specify by how much. And Kasich faces perhaps the biggest challenge. He is bypassing this week’s Republican caucus in Nevada, and he is counting on strong performances in Michigan, whose primary is March 8, and his home state of Ohio, which votes on March 15. He is not likely to have another attention-grabbing finish before those contests.
“We’re confident we’re going to get enough to run the kind of campaign we need,” Weaver said after results came in Saturday. “The days of us being outspent 10-to-1 are over because of what happened tonight.”
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