Enrollment dip hurts University System of Georgia

-$20.15 million — decrease caused by a drop in enrollment.

$20.6 million — increase in health care costs because of effects of the Affordable Care Act.

$3.23 million — increase for graduate medical education toward a goal of 400 residency slots statewide.

*NOTE: State funding represents only a portion of the system’s massive overall general operating budget, which for the current year totals $6.3 billion. However, both it and tuition most directly affect college costs for students in Georgia. Other sources of dedicated revenue that feed into the overall budget include sponsored funding such as grants and a special institutional fee.

SOURCE: University System of Georgia

Fall 2012 semester enrollment

Institution … Fall 2012 enrollment … Fall 2011 enrollment … % change

Georgia Health Sciences University 3,029 … 2,948 … 2.7%

Georgia Tech 21,558 … 20,941 … 2.9%

Georgia State University 32,087 … 32,022 … 0.2%

University of Georgia 34,518 … 34,816 … -0.9%

Georgia Southern 20,574 … 20,212 … 1.8%

Valdosta State 12,515 … 13,089 … -4.4%

Albany State 4,275 … 4,663 … -8.3%

Armstrong Atlantic 7,439 … 7,493 … -0.7%

Augusta State 6,528 … 6,741 … -3.2%

Clayton State 7,140 … 6,860 … 4.1%

Columbus State 8,239 … 8,307 … -0.8%

Fort Valley State 3,568 … 3,896 … -8.4%

Georgia College & State 6,444 … 6,636 … -2.9%

Georgia Southwestern 2,973 … 3,046 … -2.4%

Kennesaw State 24,604 … 24,175 … 1.8%

North Georgia 6,413 … 6,067 … 5.7%

Savannah State 4,582 … 4,552 … 0.7%

Southern Polytechnic 6,202 … 5,799 … 6.9%

University of West Georgia 11,769 … 11,646 … 1.1%

Abraham Baldwin 3,233 … 3,250 … -0.5%

Atlanta Metropolitan 2,871 … 2,782 … 3.2%

Coastal Georgia 3,156 … 3,474 … -9.2%

Dalton State 5,047 … 5,485 … -8.0%

Darton State 6,396 … 6,097 … 4.9%

East Georgia 2,944 … 3,435 … -14.3%

Gainesville 8,659 … 8,569 … 1.1%

Georgia Gwinnett 9,397 … 7,742 … 21.4%

Georgia Highlands 5,533 … 5,530 … 0.1%

Georgia Perimeter 23,619 … 26,996 … -12.5%

Gordon State 4,171 … 4,664 … -10.6%

Macon State 5,780 … 5,702 … 1.4%

Middle Georgia 3,104 … 3,424 … -9.3%

South Georgia 2,226 … 2,270 … -1.9%

Bainbridge College 2,939 … 3,734 … -21.3%

Waycross College 833 … 964 … -13.6%

University System total 314,365 … 318,027 … -1.2%

SOURCE: University System of Georgia

The University System of Georgia for more than a decade has banked on a steady increase in students to help soften the blow of repeated tuition hikes and state budget cuts.

But no more.

Enrollment during the 2012-13 academic year dropped by more than 3,660 students across Georgia, a fact acknowledged in a $1.93 billion budget request approved Wednesday by the state Board of Regents. The decline in overall credit hours translates to a $20.15 million decrease in what the regents are allowed to request in state funding.

That means institutions could see see fewer state funds on campus next year, which may in turn affect class availability, class sizes and support services like student advising. However, it may not automatically result in a tuition increase because of pressures on the system to not price students out of a higher education.

Enrollment is important because the state ties how it funds the system to how many students enrolled during a certain period in its 31 institutions. Fewer students means fewer dollars, even as the overall state budget picture has turned rosy enough for Gov. Nathan Deal to signal he will end six years of recession-related budget reductions.

The drop immediately forces the university system to take a hard look at what it does. Those discussions have begun, including an ongoing examination of “degree productivity” (the number of students earning degrees) that will result next year in a review of low-performing degree programs systemwide.

“With all of this, we have to think about a ‘new normal,’” said John Brown, system vice chancellor for fiscal affairs. “I don’t think this can be treated as just another budget cut. We’re going to have to talk about what students we’re serving, what programs we have.”

Enrollment has dropped only two other times since 1978; it last fell in the late 1990s when the system changed its academic calendar from three quarters a year to two semesters.

The system recovered quickly then, but not now.

Early estimates for this fall show another enrollment drop of an additional 5,300 students, bringing the system total to about 309,000. Last fall, 314,365 students enrolled in the system, a 1.2 percent drop from the 318,027 in fall 2011. Up until that point, the system had gained about 100,000 students over the previous decade, although the rate of increase had slowed toward the end.

It’s not just a Georgia problem. Nationally, total college enrollment fell about 2.3 percent last year over 2011, according to Census Bureau estimates. One of the biggest shifts seems to be among older students. Still, it is unclear whether the drop represents a trend because it includes one year’s worth of data.

Enrollment at 11 schools in Georgia’s university system, including three of the system’s four premier research institutions, remained flat or ticked up slightly.

Twenty others saw declines during the 2012-13 academic year, with some double-digit drops at so-called “access” colleges that serve older students, emphasize two-year programs, and have less rigorous entrance requirements.

“I think one of the reasons the research universities haven’t seen the same kind of decrease is because traditionally our students are right out of high school,” Georgia Tech President Bud Peterson said. “That offsets a little bit of the decrease. But I think as the economy starts to improve we’re seeing a decrease in the number of older students that are going back to school because they can now maybe get some jobs that they couldn’t get before.”

Brown said about half of the enrollment drop can be attributed to a relatively new admissions policy that started last year rejecting students who need too much remedial help in English or math. The system adopted the policy because students who need extensive remedial lessons often struggle and are less likely to graduate.

Officials also have blamed the effects of the weak economy and changes to financial aid programs, such as the federal Pell Grant and Georgia’s HOPE Scholarship that reduced award payouts for some recipients.

Before the recession, which started at the end of 2007, state funding covered nearly 75 percent of college costs in Georgia, with 25 percent coming from tuition. It’s now less than a 50-50 split, with students picking up 52 percent of the tab. The system also absorbed about $1.4 billion in reductions over the past six years because of the recession’s effect on Georgia’s economy.

The system’s total state funding currently is about $1.88 billion. The reason the system’s total state budget request for fiscal year 2015 shows an increase is because, despite the enrollment drop, other costs have increased, including for health care.

Confirmation of the effect of the system’s enrollment dip comes five months after the regents approved yet another round of tuition hikes, albeit at 2.5 percent for most campuses — one of the smallest in nearly a decade. Other years, including fiscal years 2004, 2008 and 2011, saw double-digit increases in what the system charged students. On the most prestigious campuses, tuition at the University of Georgia and Georgia Tech has jumped by more than 65 percent since fall 2008.

One bright spot for the future is that the state will change how it funds the system starting in fiscal year 2016 (beginning July 1, 2015). The state plans to untie enrollment from the system’s funding formula. It instead will focus on so-called performance outcomes such as graduation and student retention rates.

That’s good news for the university system, which over the past five years saw an increase of 9,000 in the number of degrees it awards annually. In 2012, that count stood at 56,845.