The betting public is backing the Patriots to win by more than a field goal in a high-scoring game but bookmakers are expecting the Falcons to keep it close with the score lower than expected.
Those are the takeaways from the early betting trends on the Super Bowl. The Patriots opened as three-point favorite late Sunday and sportsbooks have held the line at -3 even as most of the public money pours in on the Patriots. Also, the “total” of 58 is the highest in Super Bowl history but oddsmakers haven’t moved the number with bets overwhelmingly in favor of the game going "over" that number of points scored.
“Some may have thought the Pats would be more than a three-point favorite, but the line is still holding steady even though 65% of the money is coming in on them,” Bovada.lv sportsbook manager Kevin Bradley said in an emailed statement. “The total, which is the highest in Super Bowl history at 58, is still seeing 75% of bets on the over. It looks like the book will be rooting for the Falcons and the under.”
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In general, bookmakers try to get equal money on both sides of a line and make profit on the commission, or "juice," for losing bets (typically 10 percent). But they will hold the line if they believe the public is backing the wrong side, and that seems to be the case so far for the Super Bowl. (Also, bookmakers who move the line too far from its opening number after significant money comes in expose themselves to the risk of getting "middled"by bettors who take both sides.)
The Falcons already have defied the odds. Before the season they were 100-to-1 longshots to win the Super Bowl and still were getting 30-to-1 odds after their 4-1 start. Now the Falcons are getting 1.4-to-1 odds to beat the Patriots, according to the VegasInsiders.com consensus line.
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