The over/under for the NFC championship game moved to 61 points, which is ridiculously ( and historically ) high for an NFL playoff game. The under has got to be the play, right?
But then I look at the sorry shape of Green Bay’s secondary and I think the Falcons might score 40 on their own. I’m only half-kidding. Matt Ryan is going to carve up the Packers if they don’t get healthier on the back line.
Safety Morgan Burnett hurt his thigh against the Cowboys, tried to return but couldn't do it. Rookie Kentrell Brice replaced him and it did not go well at all. The Packers are in desperate need of Quinten Rollins to return from a concussion, which tells you something because, well, he's not so great, either. Here's Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus:
Green Bay came into this season with a very young and inexperienced group of cornerbacks, but they had shown plenty of promise. All of that positivity eroded over the season, with Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins, in particular, suffering monster regressions in year two. . . . Ladarius Gunter has been the best of the group overall on the outside, but he has had his season punctuated by awful games, including last week against Dallas.
I doubt Julio Jones will be 100 percent for Sunday but he doesn’t have to be to run free through that secondary. Maybe the Falcons only score 30 if Burnett plays.
Related headlines
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- After 'loudest ever' Dome, Quinn wants it even louder
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Seriously, you can make a legit case for a lower-scoring game than expected.
One factor is that Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson probably won’t play. Counterpoint: the Packers put 38 on the Giants’ elite defense in spite of Nelson playing just 16 snaps and ran up 34 on the Cowboys’ decent defense with Nelson not playing at all.
Another reason to like the under is that the Falcons have improved on D since the Packers scored 32 on them in October: they rank 21st in weighted defensive DVOA compared to 27th for the full season. The counterpoint to that is what the Saints did to the Falcons in the fourth quarter and this nugget from Monson of Pro Football Focus:
"Against Seattle, the Falcons' top three corners gave up passer ratings of 135.9 (Robert Alford), 118.8 (Jalen Collins) and 118.8 (Brian Poole) when targeted. Collectively, they surrendered 10 receptions for 178 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. . . . . QB Russell Wilson—with the league's worst offensive line in front of him—put up only 225 yards in the game, but Atlanta's cornerbacks were routinely overmatched against the Seahawks' receivers. Green Bay may not have a dramatically better receiving corps, especially with Jordy Nelson less than 100 percent, but they do have Aaron Rodgers and a far better offensive line protecting him. "
Lots of points will be scored in this game. I think the Falcons will score more of them, give up less than expected and control the tempo. Make it 33-27 Falcons, but don't blame me if it goes over.
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