Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight both released their NFL predictions today. The two sites use different methodologies but neither statistics-based computer model likes the Falcons’ playoff chances very much.
FO ran 25,000 simulations of the season and the average number of victories predicted for Falcons is seven, last in the NFC South. Its forecast, based on its Defense-adjusted Value over Average projections, gives the Falcons a 24.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, the second-worst odds in the NFC behind the 49ers (9.2 percent).
FiverThirtyEight ran 100,000 NFL season simulations using its Elo ratings and its average prediction comes out to 7.2 games. FiveThirtyEight puts the Falcons' playoffs chances at 25 percent but foresees the Falcons finishing ahead of the Saints and Buccaneers and behind the Panthers in the South.
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Humans—or at least odds makers and bettors--don't like the Falcons much more than the computers. The over-under for Falcons season wins at Bovada.lv is 7.5, with the over at +115 odds ($10 to win $11.50) and the under at -145 odds ($14.50 to win $10).
I think the Falcons will be better than last season, in large part because I believe Dan Quinn's defense will make another leap in Year 2 , but put me down for seven victories. The reason for skepticism is what might end up being the toughest schedule in the league.
The Falcons will play six games against opponents rated in the top five by FiveThirtyEight’s formula: at Broncos, at Seahawks, Panthers (twice), Chiefs and Cardinals. They also face the Packers (No. 8) and two opponents rated about equally (at Eagles and at Rams). That’s seven games in which the Falcons almost certainly will be underdogs and two games that figure to be toss-ups.
The Falcons will have to be significantly better to win even half the games on their slate. I don't think it happens.
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