I'm a fan of Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, the proprietary efficiency metric developed by Football Outsiders. It's a great tool for objectively evaluating and comparing teams. Lots of NFL teams use similar methodology internally to measure efficiency.
So it's significant that the Falcons are No. 1 in the latest DVOA update (and for only the second time in 27 years), slightly ahead of the Cowboys. The Falcons were No. 5 last week, before their victory against the Cardinals. That fine effort was enough to dramatically improve the Falcons' standing with DVOA.
Writes FO’s Aaron Schatz:
“Our new No. 1 team is the Atlanta Falcons, thanks to a strong offensive performance against a very good Arizona defense. (That's the part of the Cardinals that hasn't imploded this season.) The Falcons are better than conventional wisdom says they are, in part because they have played the second-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.”
The softening of that schedule is one reason why, before the Cardinals game, I believed the Falcons were positioned to finish strong. Since then cornerback Desmond Trufant's season-ending surgery is a reason to believe they may falter —he's very good , his position is thin and the Falcons rank just 24th in defensive DVOA. (It will be easier, I think, to maintain the improved pass rush without Adrian Clayborn for a month).
Losing those players is a tough blow for the Falcons. I wasn't sold on them as the NFC's bestbefore those injuries but, for weeks, I've believed the Falcons to be legit . And I still think they have have a chance because their offense really is tough to stop.
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I suspected the lackluster effort against Philly's tough D (No. 3 defensive DVOA) was an outlier rather than the start of a decline; the beat down of Arizona confirmed it. The Falcons have been at least effective, and sometimes great, against other stout defenses: Seahawks (No. 4 defensive DVOA), Carolina (No. 10), Denver (No. 2), San Diego (No. 9) Tampa Bay (No. 12). Those teams haven’t faced many opponents who could move the ball like on them like the Falcons.
Schatz notes that DVOA is not impressed with the Falcons in a historical context: "In the 27-year history of DVOA, there had never been a No. 1 team after Week 12 with DVOA below 30%. The 2010 Steelers were the lowest, at 30.9% DVOA. The Falcons are nine percentage points behind that."
That shouldn't surprise anyone who's watched a lot of NFL football this season. It also doesn't matter. These Falcons only have to be good enough to contend this year. The numbers says they are and, though I'm not quite so high on them as DVOA, I say they are too.
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