It's unlikely the Falcons will repeat their record-setting offensive numbers in 2017 so they'll have to be better on defense (and have good injury luck) to get back to the Super Bowl. Dan Quinn turned a bad defense into a respectable one in 2015 (dramatic 7.6 percent improvement in defensive Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). The defense regressed a bit in 2016—a 0.4 percent decrease in defensive DVOA—but by the end of the year (with Quinn taking over play calls) you could see signs of the unit getting better .
And the Falcons are well-positioned to be better on defense in 2017, according to Football Outsiders. The advanced statistics site evaluated the young talent of every NFL roster and declared that the Falcons have the fifth-best collection of players younger than 25-years old. You won’t find much of it on offense, where veterans dominate the snaps, but the defense has plenty of youthful talent in Year 3 of Quinn’s overhaul of that unit.
Writes Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders (via ESPN Insider):
"Atlanta would have been the lowest-ranked defense (27th in DVOA) to ever win a Super Bowl, but could not get that final stop against the Patriots. However, young, low-ranked defenses often become much higher-ranked defenses when players hit their prime. This year, the defense will start at least six under-25 players, many of whom are still developing."
The projected under-25 starters on defense are tackle Grady Jarrett, safety Keanu Neal, and linebackers Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell. Rookie pass rusher Takkarist McKinley and rookie linebacker Duke Riley also could end up playing starters’ snaps. (Vic Beasley turned 25 last month). Tight end Austin Hooper appears to be the only sure under-25 offensive starter for the Falcons.
(Click here for details on Kacsmar's methodology.)
Related headlines
It should be noted that Kacsmar's analysis includes Falcons cornerback Jalen Collins, who was suspended 10 games for violating the league's performance-enhancing drugs policy. Nickel back Brian Poole (another under-25 talent) has shown promise but losing Collins hurts the Falcons at a thin position .
However, there’s still plenty of young defensive talent for Quinn to work with. The coach has shown a real talent for identifying the players who fit the style he wants to play and has force-fed inexperienced guys to build a foundation. Quinn will have to do good work with that unit again in 2017 if the Falcons are to be legit contenders again.
About the Author
