An Unsettled GOP Race
In recent days, I have been looking at polls about the Republican race for the White House through a slightly different lens, trying to focus on those who are undecided and those who might still change their minds.
Think about it - the volatility of this GOP race has been pretty stunning so far.
Michele Bachmann went up and down. Rick Perry went up and down. Herman Cain was way down and went way up.
About the only constant has been the fairly consistent level of support for Mitt Romney and the lackluster support for Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum.
So when four new polls came out yesterday from CNN and Time Magazine focused on January's "Big Four" states - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida - there were some interesting tidbits.
The basic results showed Mitt Romney ahead in all four states, with Herman Cain in second place; that's not surprising, as recent polls have had Romney and Cain neck and neck in key states.
In all four of these polls, the percentage of those with "No opinion" or "None" of the named major candidates was just below that of Cain's second place standing - in other words, there are a lot of undecided voters.
- Florida had 21% those surveyed pick "No opinion" or "None"
- Iowa undecided/no opinion was at 14%
- New Hampshire was at 19%
- South Carolina had 15% undecided of those polled So, that's still a pretty good chunk of people who aren't thrilled with the GOP field as yet. But then came the really interesting piece of data. After indicating which candidate would draw their vote, those surveyed in the CNN/Time poll were asked: "Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?" The answers showed the intense volatility that could still rock this GOP race in the next few months.
- In Florida, 50% of those surveyed say they might change their mind
- Iowa was the highest of the four states at 62% - and Iowa votes first
- Even with Mitt Romney's big lead, New Hampshire voters were at 48% "might change mind"
- And in South Carolina, 56% of those surveyed were still open to changing their mind With just over two months to go, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain are definitely the top two in the GOP race, with one or the other ahead, depending on the poll. But with so many undecided, and the chance of so many voters changing their minds, this GOP race could go anywhere by January.
