The question of Georgia's best football coach will always be a matter of opinion, but GHSF Daily wondered if the issue could be addressed in objective, numeric way. So we asked the resident computer football expert, Loren Maxwell, to give it a try.
We told Maxwell, the creator of the Maxwell Ratings, that we were looking for coaches that didn't just win games, but exceeded the level that history would predict.
For example, in 2014, rookie head coach Justin Rogers is 5-2 at Jones County, a school that hasn't won a playoff game in 13 years. That's a sign of a coach making a difference.
Which coaches have done that most consistently? Can it be measured?
Maxwell gave it a shot, tinkered with a few models over several days and finally settled on one that balanced the accomplishments of those winning where winning hasn't been easy, but also those building on already successful programs.
The study encompassed 99,254 games and 3,320 coaches at 614 schools using data from the Georgia High School Football Historians Association back through the 1948 season.
Maxwell's first list ranks coaches based on the number of victories that each has won above what would've been expected given the history of the school (or schools) at which the coach has worked.
By this measure, Rich McWhorter of Charlton County stands out. McWhorter's record is 256-62-2. Note that Charlton County, while it did have success in the 1970s, won only 25 games in the decade before McWhorter's arrival.
The model also rewards coaches that inherited successful programs and took them to another level. Alan Chadwick of Marist has been worth 97.21 extra victories for Marist over the past 30 season, according to the model. But Marist would've been pretty good (more like 231-156 instead of 328-59) without a coach as good as Chadwick, according to Maxwell.
Maxwell's model also identifies coaches that might not be household names to many high school fans, such as Mike Parris, now at Loganville.
Maxwell explained: "Although the model is more complicated than this, basically Mike Parris' record is 167-85-0, or 66.3 percent, while the schools he coached at are 835-1,153-39, or 42.2 percent, without his record included. Think of doing that comparison over and over ad infinitum for every coach against every team while taking into account the classification and the home advantage. That's basically how the model works."
Best active coaches (career value):
107.73 - Rich McWhorter
97.21 - Alan Chadwick
93.07 - Jeff Herron
84.74 - Dwight Hochstetler
74.27 - Bruce Miller
73.68 - Ed Dudley
70.73 - Ed Pilcher
70.72 - Hal Lamb
70.19 - Randy McPherson
69.41 - Mike Earwood
67.44 - Mark R. Stroud
65.93 - Mike Parris
62.75 - Bob Sphire
61.94 - Jess Simpson
58.44 - Paul Standard
58.25 - Mickey Conn
57.81 - Keith Maloof
56.16 - Robby Pruitt
54.79 - Steve Pardue
50.10 - Gerry Romberg
49.07 - Chip Walker
47.89 - Mark Crews
44.55 - Sid Fritts
44.34 - Franklin Stephens
44.09 - Bill Ballard
Now, what about coaches that are doing great work, but over shorter periods? A coach such as Ware County's Franklin Stephens, who has taken three schools to No. 1 rankings over a short career?
For that, Maxwell assigned an average-impact per game to each coach. The best coach in Georgia, per game, is North Gwinnett's Bob Sphire, according to Maxwell's model. Sphire grades out at 0.59 - meaning he is winning 5.9 games per 10 above what he should not win, based on the history of his program.
North Gwinnett's total record without Sphire is 183-254-9, or 42 percent. With Sphire, North Gwinnett has been 96-17-0, or 85 percent. North has never won more than nine games without him and never less than 10 games with him. North has made the playoffs five times in the 45 years before him and eight times in the eight years with him (not counting 2014).
This list requires a minimum of 50 games coached in Georgia.
Best active coaches (per-season value):
0.59 - Bob Sphire
0.45 - Randy McPherson
0.44 - Rush Propst
0.43 - Jess Simpson
0.43 - Franklin Stephens
0.41 - Chip Walker
0.40 - Mike Swaney
0.39 - John Reid
0.38 - Kyle Hockman
0.36 - Paul Standard
0.36 - Jonathan Gess
0.36 - Kevin Kinsler
0.36 - Mickey Conn
0.36 - Rich McWhorter
0.35 - Rocky Hidalgo
0.32 - Jep Irwin
0.32 - Ken Cofer
0.32 - Jeff Herron
0.32 - Tim Hardy
0.32 - Robby Pruitt
0.31 - Hal Lamb
0.31 - Mark Crews
0.30 - Sheddrick Risper
0.30 - Bill Ballard
0.29 - Derek Cook
0.29 - Donald Chumley
What about the best coach of all-time? Here is Maxwell's top 25 for total wins over average for a career.
Best coaches all-time (career value):
219.78 - Larry Campbell
166.27 - Robert Davis
145.26 - T. McFerrin
136.83 - Billy Henderson
134.41 - Nick Hyder
131.43 - Bill Chappell
123.86 - Jim Hughes
120.00 - Wayman Creel
117.65 - Dan Pitts
107.73 - Rich McWhorter
102.04 - Graham Hixon
97.28 - Cecil Flowe
97.21 - Alan Chadwick
94.36 - John Hill
93.07 - Jeff Herron
91.66 - Conrad Nix
90.25 - Wright Bazemore
87.86 - Danny Cronic
86.39 - Gene Brodie
85.56 - Buck Godfrey
85.44 - Michael Gunn
84.74 - Dwight Hochstetler
84.51 - Charlie Winslette
84.41 - Jimmy Dorsey
83.57 - Rodney Walker
Produced by Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.
About the Author
