- Although Colquitt County's rating continues to fall with each loss, the Packers have managed to stubbornly cling to a top 5 ranking in Class AAAAAAA. While a portion of Colquitt's staying power is a result of one of the toughest schedules in the state, their ranking also highlights the lack of depth in the new smaller classification.  So far, Roswell, Mill Creek, and Grayson are bunched at the top while McEachern plays the dark horse.  According to the season simulator, there is a 91.8% chance one of these four teams will finish as the state champion. After that, Colquitt County tops a second tier of four closely rated teams that includes Archer, Norcross, and Lowndes. The is a 7.1% chance the state champion will be from this group. The other 40 teams in AAAAAAA have about a 1.1% chance.

- Region 1-AAAAAA (Coffee, Houston County, Lee County, Northside of Warner Robins, and Valdosta) has moved to the top of the region ratings for all classifications.  The region is currently 17-1 against outside competition, including victories against Class AAAAAAA teams.  The playoff simulator says there is a 65.3% chance one of these teams will be crowned champion, an 81.2% at least one of these teams will play for the championship, and a 26.4% chance that two region teams will be in the finals. It also gives the region about a 3.5% chance of having all four slots in the semifinals.

- Meanwhile, 1-AAAAAA (Camden County, Colquitt County, Lowndes, and Tift County) has fallen from its favored status.  For the first time this season, the playoff simulator gives another region greater odds of capturing the Class AAAAAAA At-Large bid:

25.10%    4 - AAAAAAA

23.70%    1 - AAAAAAA

15.80%    5 - AAAAAAA

12.70%    3 - AAAAAAA

11.40%    8 - AAAAAAA

4.50%    7 - AAAAAAA

4.00%    6 - AAAAAAA

2.80%    2 - AAAAAAA

By team:

13.1%    1 - AAAAAAA    Tift County

7.4%    5 - AAAAAAA    North Forsyth

7.0%    4 - AAAAAAA    Lassiter

6.0%    3 - AAAAAAA    North Paulding

5.9%    4 - AAAAAAA    Walton

5.6%    8 - AAAAAAA    Newton

4.9%    1 - AAAAAAA    Camden County

4.5%    1 - AAAAAAA    Lowndes

4.4%    8 - AAAAAAA    South Gwinnett

4.4%    4 - AAAAAAA    Etowah

4.3%    4 - AAAAAAA    Woodstock

3.9%    7 - AAAAAAA    Lakeside (Atlanta)

3.6%    4 - AAAAAAA    Cherokee

3.4%    3 - AAAAAAA    North Cobb

3.4%    5 - AAAAAAA    Milton

In the modal bracket, Region 5-AAAAAAA's North Forsyth is awarded the At-Large bid since Tift County finishes third in the Region 1-AAAAAAA modal standings.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 34.41%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 574 of 616 total games including 5 tie(s) (93.59%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.88 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 0.20

By Class

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.