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Atlanta high school sports news from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Maxwell Week 12 summary: Colquitt County faces field (and history)

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the player roster or coaching staff.

Interesting results:

- Colquitt County is rated just shy of two touchdowns and a field goal better than their nearest competitor, Grayson.  While the playoffs have yet to start and the Parkers are, at best, only two-thirds of the way through the season, they’ve dominated Class AAAAAAA to the point where the computer gives them a 74.6% chance to walk away with the title (assuming Tift County as the At-Large seed).

But perhaps more interesting than if they are the best team in the state is whether they are the best Packer team in history.  At this point -- not quite.  Coach Rush Propst’s 2015 version is rated slightly higher (104.89 vs 104.60) as is Jim Hughes’ 1994 outfit (104.69 vs 104.60).  But a strong showing over the next five games could easily make this year’s team the best to ever emerge from Moultrie.

- Similarly, Lee County, nearly *three* touchdowns and a field goal better than Class AAAAAA #2 Creekview and an 83.5% favorite to win it all, has probably secured their highest rating ever regardless of what happens in the playoffs.  They are rated over five points better than their 2005 incarnation, a 10-2 squad in one of the toughest regions in the state and featuring Class AAAA Offensive Player of the Year D’Vontrey Richardson.

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Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.14%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,928 of 2,062 total games including 0 tie(s) (93.50%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.65 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. 

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.33

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Colquitt County10-0104.601Lee County10-088.54
2Grayson8-287.672Creekview10-065.11
3Parkview10-084.233Valdosta6-463.93
4Hillgrove10-081.814Northside (Warner Robins)5-562.16
5Lowndes7-375.065Sequoyah8-258.70
6Marietta5-574.596Allatoona7-358.22
7North Gwinnett8-274.197Harrison8-257.07
8Archer8-274.158Coffee7-354.09
9Tift County6-474.029Johns Creek9-154.03
10McEachern7-373.4010Dacula8-251.80
11Camden County7-373.1911Glynn Academy6-449.40
12Milton8-270.8512Creekside7-345.91
13Walton9-169.8213Douglas County8-245.56
14Roswell9-168.7914Centennial7-345.53
15Westlake8-265.0115Dalton6-444.17
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Rome10-084.251Mary Persons10-082.39
2Warner Robins9-178.772Cartersville10-074.43
3Dutchtown10-076.403Blessed Trinity10-072.90
4Stockbridge9-166.674St. Pius X9-165.10
5Buford8-265.245Troup9-164.55
6Jones County8-264.566Marist8-262.88
7Kell8-259.047Upson-Lee7-355.56
8Wayne County10-058.378Pickens10-053.93
9Veterans8-256.839Sandy Creek7-352.65
10Carrollton8-255.7910Flowery Branch8-252.34
11Bainbridge5-554.0111Cedartown5-549.91
12Ware County7-352.1812Howard6-449.47
13East Paulding6-450.1713Cairo8-249.22
14Locust Grove5-548.2614Baldwin5-548.56
15Banneker9-148.0415Burke County7-347.37
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove9-172.131Rockmart10-066.34
2Peach County8-267.322Dublin9-163.63
3Calhoun10-064.623Dodge County9-158.65
4Monroe Area10-061.234Hapeville Charter9-157.40
5Greater Atlanta Christian8-255.685Brooks County8-257.38
6Crisp County7-351.966Fitzgerald7-355.26
7Benedictine9-151.787Washington County8-253.40
8Dawson County9-151.618Heard County8-250.55
9Westminster (Atlanta)6-449.929Callaway8-250.27
10Pierce County10-049.7310Thomasville6-450.26
11Pace Academy6-447.9411Rabun County9-149.50
12Westside (Macon)7-347.4412Bremen8-246.69
13Lovett5-547.1513Swainsboro8-245.68
14North Hall8-245.6614Vidalia9-142.67
15Jefferson8-244.4915Early County6-439.24
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Irwin County10-070.851Athens Academy10-052.71
2Clinch County9-159.342Eagle's Landing Christian9-149.77
3Pelham10-050.843Prince Avenue Christian9-148.40
4Marion County10-044.584George Walton Academy8-242.19
5Mount Zion (Carroll)9-142.565Savannah Christian9-140.33
6Charlton County7-336.926North Cobb Christian9-138.25
7Commerce8-236.897Fellowship Christian9-133.57
8Schley County8-232.888Darlington8-233.18
9Mitchell County8-232.119Hebron Christian Academy5-532.99
10Turner County6-428.6510Calvary Day9-131.71
11Trion7-328.0011Wesleyan6-429.69
12Wilcox County5-526.5812Christian Heritage7-328.65
13Emanuel County Institute6-424.5213Mount Paran Christian7-328.33
14Dooly County6-423.4814Mount Vernon Presbyterian7-326.23
15Greene County8-223.2815Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)7-324.94

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating SchStr Rank
1 [1]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA10-0104.6069.321 [1]
2 [1]Lee County1 - AAAAAA10-088.5442.6971 [9]
3 [2]Grayson8 - AAAAAAA8-287.6749.6130 [23]
4 [1]Rome7 - AAAAA10-084.2537.40117 [23]
5 [3]Parkview7 - AAAAAAA10-084.2350.3227 [20]
6 [1]Mary Persons2 - AAAA10-082.3942.9170 [11]
7 [4]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA10-081.8153.7214 [10]
8 [2]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA9-178.7753.9712 [1]
9 [3]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA10-076.4041.9376 [15]
10 [5]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA7-375.0661.075 [4]
11 [6]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA5-574.5967.162 [2]
12 [2]Cartersville5 - AAAA10-074.4340.2692 [19]
13 [7]North Gwinnett6 - AAAAAAA8-274.1946.9842 [29]
14 [8]Archer8 - AAAAAAA8-274.1551.6719 [13]
15 [9]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA6-474.0265.393 [3]
16 [10]McEachern3 - AAAAAAA7-373.4060.396 [5]
17 [11]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA7-373.1956.469 [6]
18 [3]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAA10-072.9041.3982 [13]
19 [1]Cedar Grove5 - AAA9-172.1324.52243 [30]
20 [12]Milton5 - AAAAAAA8-270.8551.4921 [15]
21 [1]Irwin County2 - A10-070.8529.42191 [3]
22 [13]Walton4 - AAAAAAA9-169.8249.1131 [24]
23 [14]Roswell4 - AAAAAAA9-168.7947.8438 [27]
24 [2]Peach County4 - AAA8-267.3238.88107 [4]
25 [4]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA9-166.6732.73164 [31]
26 [1]Rockmart7 - AA10-066.3419.88283 [23]
27 [5]Buford8 - AAAAA8-265.2435.69131 [27]
28 [2]Creekview6 - AAAAAA10-065.1137.54116 [19]
29 [4]St. Pius X8 - AAAA9-165.1039.49104 [22]
30 [15]Westlake2 - AAAAAAA8-265.0146.3845 [31]
31 [3]Calhoun6 - AAA10-064.6219.99281 [40]
32 [6]Jones County4 - AAAAA8-264.5646.1147 [6]
33 [5]Troup5 - AAAA9-164.5544.2057 [6]
34 [3]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA6-463.9361.204 [1]
35 [2]Dublin3 - AA9-163.6334.01151 [11]
36 [16]Mill Creek6 - AAAAAAA7-362.9150.4726 [19]
37 [6]Marist7 - AAAA8-262.8843.1669 [10]
38 [4]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA5-562.1657.388 [3]
39 [17]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA7-362.0549.6529 [22]
40 [4]Monroe Area8 - AAA10-061.2326.15225 [26]
41 [2]Clinch County2 - A9-159.3429.51188 [2]
42 [7]Kell7 - AAAAA8-259.0438.54109 [20]
43 [5]Sequoyah6 - AAAAAA8-258.7039.46105 [15]
44 [3]Dodge County3 - AA9-158.6539.26106 [6]
45 [8]Wayne County2 - AAAAA10-058.3735.59132 [28]
46 [6]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA7-358.2245.8549 [6]
47 [18]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA6-458.0153.9513 [9]
48 [19]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA6-457.5449.7128 [21]
49 [4]Hapeville Charter6 - AA9-157.4017.17314 [34]
50 [5]Brooks County1 - AA8-257.3844.7552 [2]
51 [7]Harrison6 - AAAAAA8-257.0737.15120 [21]
52 [9]Veterans1 - AAAAA8-256.8346.1048 [7]
53 [20]West Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA5-556.8048.6434 [26]
54 [10]Carrollton7 - AAAAA8-255.7937.92114 [22]
55 [5]Greater Atlanta Christian7 - AAA8-255.6828.42205 [22]
56 [7]Upson-Lee2 - AAAA7-355.5648.7333 [1]
57 [6]Fitzgerald1 - AA7-355.2642.0875 [3]
58 [21]Brookwood7 - AAAAAAA7-354.8739.82100 [41]
59 [8]Coffee1 - AAAAAA7-354.0940.1693 [12]
60 [9]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA9-154.0325.40232 [52]
61 [11]Bainbridge1 - AAAAA5-554.0151.9818 [3]
62 [8]Pickens6 - AAAA10-053.9314.26345 [52]
63 [7]Washington County3 - AA8-253.4036.87122 [7]
64 [22]Mountain View6 - AAAAAAA7-353.0643.7264 [36]
65 [1]Athens Academy8 - A10-052.7125.47230 [2]
66 [9]Sandy Creek5 - AAAA7-352.6539.59103 [21]
67 [10]Flowery Branch7 - AAAA8-252.3432.92162 [29]
68 [12]Ware County2 - AAAAA7-352.1843.2068 [12]
69 [6]Crisp County1 - AAA7-351.9639.72101 [3]
70 [10]Dacula8 - AAAAAA8-251.8035.35137 [26]
71 [7]Benedictine3 - AAA9-151.7814.02348 [50]
72 [8]Dawson County7 - AAA9-151.6120.09278 [39]
73 [3]Pelham1 - A10-050.84-4.69417 [48]
74 [8]Heard County5 - AA8-250.5528.36206 [16]
75 [9]Callaway5 - AA8-250.2718.06306 [33]
76 [10]Thomasville1 - AA6-450.2647.7340 [1]
77 [13]East Paulding7 - AAAAA6-450.1744.4655 [9]
78 [23]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA6-450.0944.3956 [33]
79 [9]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA6-449.9242.4773 [1]
80 [11]Cedartown5 - AAAA5-549.9144.0359 [7]
81 [2]Eagle's Landing Christian5 - A9-149.7718.15303 [15]
82 [10]Pierce County2 - AAA10-049.738.76380 [54]
83 [11]Rabun County8 - AA9-149.5018.97293 [26]
84 [12]Howard2 - AAAA6-449.4744.6253 [5]
85 [11]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA6-449.4040.0897 [13]
86 [13]Cairo1 - AAAA8-249.2230.40182 [30]
87 [24]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA3-748.8255.6811 [8]
88 [14]Baldwin3 - AAAA5-548.5648.2136 [2]
89 [3]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A9-148.4021.46265 [7]
90 [14]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA5-548.2651.0823 [4]
91 [15]Banneker6 - AAAAA9-148.0420.04280 [48]
92 [11]Pace Academy5 - AAA6-447.9434.50145 [7]
93 [25]South Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA5-547.7148.8832 [25]
94 [26]Cherokee4 - AAAAAAA5-547.7051.1222 [16]
95 [12]Westside (Macon)4 - AAA7-347.4433.20159 [10]
96 [15]Burke County3 - AAAA7-347.3735.97130 [26]
97 [13]Lovett5 - AAA5-547.1542.3374 [2]
98 [16]Ridgeland6 - AAAA7-346.8926.88216 [37]
99 [12]Bremen5 - AA8-246.6917.04316 [35]
100 [17]Perry2 - AAAA6-446.2043.7065 [9]
101 [27]Etowah4 - AAAAAAA4-645.9150.8524 [17]
102 [12]Creekside5 - AAAAAA7-345.9137.09121 [22]
103 [13]Swainsboro2 - AA8-245.6827.89208 [17]
104 [14]North Hall7 - AAA8-245.6617.40312 [44]
105 [13]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA8-245.5632.82163 [36]
106 [14]Centennial7 - AAAAAA7-345.5331.99170 [40]
107 [18]Eastside4 - AAAA10-045.4916.31324 [51]
108 [19]West Laurens2 - AAAA5-545.2643.9960 [8]
109 [20]North Oconee8 - AAAA8-245.1429.90184 [31]
110 [28]Kennesaw Mountain3 - AAAAAAA4-644.8252.5916 [12]
111 [4]Marion County4 - A10-044.5813.63353 [19]
112 [15]Jefferson8 - AAA8-244.4926.94214 [24]
113 [29]Wheeler2 - AAAAAAA6-444.2441.8578 [38]
114 [21]Carver (Columbus)1 - AAAA9-144.2026.30224 [39]
115 [15]Dalton6 - AAAAAA6-444.1736.36127 [24]
116 [30]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA4-644.0846.9841 [29]
117 [22]Chapel Hill5 - AAAA6-444.0841.0385 [15]
118 [31]Collins Hill6 - AAAAAAA3-744.0356.0010 [7]
119 [16]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAAA7-343.7133.25156 [30]
120 [17]Thomas County Central1 - AAAAA5-543.5143.7563 [11]
121 [16]Appling County2 - AAA6-442.8633.21157 [9]
122 [14]Vidalia2 - AA9-142.6718.65296 [27]
123 [5]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A9-142.5618.98292 [12]
124 [16]Stephenson4 - AAAAAA9-142.3120.87271 [57]
125 [18]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA6-442.2938.42110 [21]
126 [32]Woodstock4 - AAAAAAA3-742.2351.5820 [14]
127 [17]Mays5 - AAAAAA6-442.2034.17148 [30]
128 [4]George Walton Academy8 - A8-242.1918.84295 [13]
129 [23]Oconee County8 - AAAA6-441.9738.28112 [23]
130 [18]Lanier8 - AAAAAA7-341.7834.58143 [29]
131 [17]Jackson4 - AAA6-441.2234.31147 [8]
132 [33]Forsyth Central5 - AAAAAAA7-341.0028.61203 [48]
133 [19]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA10-040.8617.70310 [52]
134 [20]Harris County1 - AAAAA3-740.7252.3517 [2]
135 [34]Central Gwinnett7 - AAAAAAA4-640.5343.7762 [35]
136 [5]Savannah Christian3 - A9-140.3312.99358 [25]
137 [21]Griffin3 - AAAAA7-339.9326.54219 [37]
138 [15]Early County1 - AA6-439.2440.4989 [5]
139 [19]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA4-539.2343.3467 [8]
140 [35]Newton8 - AAAAAAA4-639.2144.0758 [34]
141 [20]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA6-438.9933.12161 [35]
142 [22]Riverwood6 - AAAAA8-238.8718.28301 [50]
143 [18]Liberty County2 - AAA6-338.6829.79186 [16]
144 [24]Stephens County8 - AAAA5-538.6740.0996 [20]
145 [23]Starr's Mill3 - AAAAA7-338.5625.00234 [40]
146 [25]Thomson3 - AAAA4-638.2941.7479 [12]
147 [16]Jefferson County4 - AA8-238.2616.29325 [39]
148 [6]North Cobb Christian6 - A9-138.2519.52287 [12]
149 [21]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA4-637.8540.2791 [11]
150 [22]Tucker4 - AAAAAA7-337.5926.36223 [49]
151 [24]Union Grove4 - AAAAA6-437.4631.25174 [34]
152 [36]North Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA3-737.2043.3966 [37]
153 [25]Statesboro2 - AAAAA4-637.0941.6680 [16]
154 [26]Richmond Academy3 - AAAA7-336.9829.72187 [32]
155 [37]South Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA4-636.9445.2350 [32]
156 [6]Charlton County2 - A7-336.9226.85217 [7]
157 [7]Commerce8 - A8-236.8917.38313 [15]
158 [23]Alpharetta7 - AAAAAA6-436.8232.22168 [39]
159 [24]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA6-436.7034.07149 [31]
160 [17]Douglass6 - AA9-136.704.49397 [58]
161 [25]Northgate5 - AAAAAA6-436.6134.92140 [28]
162 [26]Houston County1 - AAAAAA2-836.2857.607 [2]
163 [27]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA3-736.1344.8751 [7]
164 [18]Union County8 - AA9-136.126.33386 [57]
165 [26]Villa Rica7 - AAAAA5-536.0537.20118 [24]
166 [27]Hiram7 - AAAAA4-634.7542.5572 [13]
167 [38]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA6-434.7230.44181 [46]
168 [19]Chattooga7 - AA8-234.5916.00328 [42]
169 [27]Columbus1 - AAAA6-434.0228.63201 [35]
170 [28]Loganville8 - AAAAA4-633.9041.9377 [15]
171 [7]Fellowship Christian6 - A9-133.5712.84360 [26]
172 [8]Darlington6 - A8-233.1823.20252 [4]
173 [9]Hebron Christian Academy8 - A5-532.9927.82209 [1]
174 [39]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA1-932.8953.7115 [11]
175 [8]Schley County4 - A8-232.8811.01373 [23]
176 [28]Hughes5 - AAAAAA4-632.7238.05113 [18]
177 [28]Denmark7 - AAAA5-532.5636.58124 [24]
178 [29]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA6-432.4628.89197 [46]
179 [20]Elbert County8 - AA7-332.3513.66352 [49]
180 [9]Mitchell County1 - A8-232.11-2.86413 [45]
181 [10]Calvary Day3 - A9-131.713.06402 [35]
182 [19]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA7-331.6219.43289 [41]
183 [29]White County7 - AAAA3-731.4340.8586 [16]
184 [20]Haralson County6 - AAA8-231.3715.57334 [48]
185 [21]Bleckley County3 - AA4-631.2336.75123 [8]
186 [22]Berrien1 - AA5-531.2335.38135 [9]
187 [40]Lambert5 - AAAAAAA3-730.7740.1394 [39]
188 [30]Pope7 - AAAAAA5-530.7631.09177 [42]
189 [41]Lassiter4 - AAAAAAA1-930.5050.7025 [18]
190 [23]Washington6 - AA7-330.4811.04371 [53]
191 [30]West Hall7 - AAAA3-730.1241.3883 [14]
192 [31]Alexander5 - AAAAAA3-730.0237.16119 [20]
193 [31]Woodward Academy4 - AAAA6-430.0218.86294 [47]
194 [32]Gainesville8 - AAAAAA2-829.8041.4281 [10]
195 [29]New Hampstead2 - AAAAA4-529.8031.95171 [33]
196 [11]Wesleyan5 - A6-429.6924.01248 [3]
197 [32]Salem4 - AAAA7-329.6618.08305 [48]
198 [33]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA2-829.4139.9698 [14]
199 [21]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA9-129.388.42382 [55]
200 [34]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA6-429.3526.05227 [51]
201 [33]Spalding2 - AAAA3-729.2840.4390 [18]
202 [22]North Murray6 - AAA6-429.0322.64257 [35]
203 [34]Westover1 - AAAA4-529.0328.78198 [34]
204 [35]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA3-728.8038.42111 [17]
205 [35]LaGrange5 - AAAA2-828.6646.1246 [4]
206 [10]Turner County2 - A6-428.6524.47244 [9]
207 [12]Christian Heritage6 - A7-328.6519.64285 [11]
208 [30]Arabia Mountain5 - AAAAA6-428.5821.68264 [46]
209 [36]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA2-828.4148.5335 [4]
210 [13]Mount Paran Christian6 - A7-328.3313.81350 [22]
211 [24]Northeast3 - AA4-628.0734.49146 [10]
212 [11]Trion6 - A7-328.0016.34323 [16]
213 [36]Hardaway1 - AAAA5-428.0024.26246 [42]
214 [23]Morgan County8 - AAA5-527.5228.02207 [23]
215 [24]Ringgold6 - AAA5-527.2224.98237 [29]
216 [37]Evans3 - AAAAAA3-727.2032.35167 [38]
217 [25]Hephzibah4 - AA8-227.0910.59375 [54]
218 [31]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA3-727.0839.68102 [19]
219 [38]Greenbrier3 - AAAAAA3-726.9734.02150 [32]
220 [25]Pike County4 - AAA7-326.696.15389 [56]
221 [39]Apalachee8 - AAAAAA3-726.6935.19139 [27]
222 [32]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA2-826.6643.8361 [10]
223 [33]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA6-426.6517.10315 [53]
224 [12]Wilcox County2 - A5-526.5822.95253 [11]
225 [34]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA4-626.5236.30128 [25]
226 [35]Riverdale3 - AAAAA7-326.4818.53297 [49]
227 [40]Northview7 - AAAAAA5-526.2926.93215 [47]
228 [26]Pepperell7 - AA6-426.2820.64272 [20]
229 [14]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A7-326.2315.26337 [18]
230 [37]Central (Carrollton)5 - AAAA2-825.7648.1837 [3]
231 [27]Southwest3 - AA3-725.6040.8187 [4]
232 [36]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA2-825.4740.1095 [18]
233 [26]Central (Macon)4 - AAA3-725.4633.17160 [11]
234 [41]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA5-425.2724.61239 [54]
235 [28]Jeff Davis2 - AA7-325.0815.45336 [45]
236 [15]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)5 - A7-324.9415.60333 [17]
237 [27]Hart County8 - AAA4-624.8029.05195 [18]
238 [28]Jenkins3 - AAA7-324.7711.03372 [52]
239 [29]Cook1 - AAA3-724.7334.83141 [6]
240 [37]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA5-524.6727.77210 [36]
241 [13]Emanuel County Institute3 - A6-424.5211.57368 [22]
242 [42]Duluth6 - AAAAAAA4-624.3734.51144 [45]
243 [38]Heritage (Ringgold)6 - AAAA5-524.2925.81228 [40]
244 [42]Mundy's Mill4 - AAAAAA6-424.2620.92269 [56]
245 [39]Northside (Columbus)1 - AAAA4-624.2229.44189 [33]
246 [43]Rockdale County8 - AAAAAAA3-724.0735.25138 [44]
247 [43]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA2-823.8236.47126 [23]
248 [44]Peachtree Ridge6 - AAAAAAA1-923.6646.5144 [30]
249 [40]Americus-Sumter1 - AAAA3-723.6034.64142 [27]
250 [14]Dooly County4 - A6-423.4817.96308 [13]
251 [15]Greene County7 - A8-223.288.03383 [28]
252 [44]Heritage (Conyers)3 - AAAAAA3-722.9929.42190 [44]
253 [29]Harlem4 - AA7-322.9011.46369 [52]
254 [45]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA3-722.4533.94152 [33]
255 [16]Mount de Sales7 - A9-122.375.94391 [32]
256 [16]Telfair County2 - A4-622.2325.42231 [8]
257 [41]Northwest Whitfield6 - AAAA6-422.0713.43355 [53]
258 [46]North Atlanta7 - AAAAAA5-522.0223.23251 [55]
259 [17]Riverside Military Academy8 - A5-521.9920.42275 [9]
260 [18]Whitefield Academy6 - A6-321.9511.23370 [30]
261 [38]Carver (Atlanta)6 - AAAAA4-621.8926.44221 [38]
262 [39]Paulding County7 - AAAAA1-921.8646.5843 [5]
263 [42]Madison County8 - AAAA2-821.6636.57125 [25]
264 [45]Shiloh8 - AAAAAAA2-821.4835.51133 [43]
265 [40]Decatur6 - AAAAA5-520.9320.40276 [47]
266 [30]Windsor Forest3 - AAA6-420.4510.57376 [53]
267 [30]Toombs County2 - AA5-520.3319.58286 [25]
268 [31]Franklin County8 - AAA3-720.2729.86185 [15]
269 [31]Metter2 - AA6-420.0716.50322 [38]
270 [41]Ola4 - AAAAA1-919.5944.5454 [8]
271 [32]Adairsville6 - AAA4-619.4724.99236 [28]
272 [32]Spencer5 - AA3-719.3931.23175 [13]
273 [42]Cass7 - AAAAA1-919.2641.2884 [17]
274 [47]Tri-Cities5 - AAAAAA1-919.2535.37136 [25]
275 [43]South Effingham2 - AAAAA2-818.8836.24129 [26]
276 [33]Screven County4 - AA6-418.8014.47344 [48]
277 [48]New Manchester5 - AAAAAA2-818.7233.70153 [34]
278 [34]Coosa7 - AA4-618.4122.27260 [18]
279 [46]Discovery6 - AAAAAAA1-918.1339.9599 [40]
280 [44]Lithonia5 - AAAAA6-418.0613.92349 [54]
281 [19]Holy Innocents5 - A5-517.9814.60341 [19]
282 [33]Monroe1 - AAA5-517.6822.49258 [36]
283 [49]Morrow4 - AAAAAA3-717.6029.15193 [45]
284 [17]Manchester4 - A6-417.408.64381 [27]
285 [20]Aquinas7 - A8-217.215.16393 [33]
286 [35]South Atlanta6 - AA6-417.067.50385 [56]
287 [50]Drew4 - AAAAAA3-716.8526.45220 [48]
288 [45]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA4-616.7925.00235 [40]
289 [18]Macon County4 - A5-516.6914.71340 [17]
290 [51]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA2-816.6532.52165 [37]
291 [43]Shaw1 - AAAA3-716.3827.18213 [36]
292 [34]Sonoraville6 - AAA4-616.0322.86254 [34]
293 [21]Brookstone4 - A6-415.522.87403 [36]
294 [44]Henry County4 - AAAA4-615.3119.89282 [45]
295 [45]LaFayette6 - AAAA5-515.2416.79321 [50]
296 [19]Chattahoochee County1 - A7-315.21-2.55412 [44]
297 [46]Hampton4 - AAAA4-615.1319.48288 [46]
298 [20]Claxton3 - A6-415.0212.76361 [20]
299 [21]Montgomery County3 - A7-314.914.92395 [34]
300 [47]Cross Creek3 - AAAA3-614.7026.61218 [38]
301 [22]Taylor County4 - A5-514.4211.93365 [21]
302 [22]Savannah Country Day3 - A7-314.223.41400 [34]
303 [36]Butler4 - AA5-514.0913.33357 [50]
304 [23]Tattnall Square7 - A6-414.077.57384 [31]
305 [37]Monticello8 - AA5-513.9316.26326 [40]
306 [38]Bacon County2 - AA2-813.8431.17176 [14]
307 [24]St. Francis6 - A5-513.6112.22364 [27]
308 [23]Atkinson County2 - A3-713.4427.23211 [5]
309 [52]Forest Park4 - AAAAAA3-713.3020.07279 [58]
310 [46]North Springs6 - AAAAA3-712.5822.46259 [45]
311 [35]Jackson County8 - AAA3-712.4424.39245 [31]
312 [47]Miller Grove5 - AAAAA3-712.3224.58241 [42]
313 [53]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)4 - AAAAAA2-812.2525.14233 [53]
314 [48]McIntosh3 - AAAAA3-712.2422.81255 [44]
315 [49]Columbia5 - AAAAA2-812.0728.47204 [35]
316 [24]Hancock Central7 - A6-412.066.12390 [31]
317 [54]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAA2-811.2530.57180 [43]
318 [55]M.L. King4 - AAAAAA1-911.2226.12226 [50]
319 [56]River Ridge6 - AAAAAA1-910.8547.8139 [5]
320 [25]Pinecrest Academy6 - A4-610.7514.48343 [20]
321 [26]Stratford Academy7 - A5-510.7411.73366 [28]
322 [36]Tattnall County2 - AAA2-810.2828.76199 [20]
323 [37]Fannin County7 - AAA4-69.0815.22338 [49]
324 [38]Worth County1 - AAA1-98.8735.43134 [5]
325 [25]Jenkins County3 - A5-58.686.17388 [30]
326 [26]Miller County1 - A6-38.60-5.71419 [50]
327 [57]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA0-108.3031.55173 [41]
328 [48]Luella4 - AAAA3-77.9621.34266 [44]
329 [27]Strong Rock Christian5 - A3-77.6622.66256 [5]
330 [39]Glenn Hills4 - AA3-77.4415.72330 [43]
331 [39]Islands3 - AAA3-77.2515.99329 [46]
332 [40]Laney4 - AA4-67.2315.13339 [46]
333 [50]Whitewater3 - AAAAA1-97.1932.06169 [32]
334 [40]Beach3 - AAA4-66.8719.12290 [42]
335 [28]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A3-76.7818.29300 [14]
336 [41]Banks County8 - AA4-66.3612.23363 [51]
337 [42]Lamar County5 - AA4-66.2620.59273 [21]
338 [49]Southeast Whitfield6 - AAAA3-76.0021.72263 [43]
339 [41]Brantley County2 - AAA2-85.8725.80229 [27]
340 [50]Chestatee7 - AAAA1-95.3740.7188 [17]
341 [43]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - AA3-75.2530.78179 [15]
342 [27]Bowdon6 - A1-95.1527.21212 [6]
343 [42]East Hall7 - AAA3-74.9329.13194 [17]
344 [44]Gordon Central7 - AA3-74.8717.01318 [37]
345 [51]Grady6 - AAAAA1-94.6624.78238 [41]
346 [28]Gordon Lee6 - A2-84.1024.11247 [10]
347 [29]Johnson County3 - A6-43.12-1.70411 [43]
348 [47]Lakeside (Atlanta)7 - AAAAAAA1-92.8837.56115 [42]
349 [29]Providence Christian8 - A4-62.3514.15347 [21]
350 [30]Washington-Wilkes7 - A3-72.2110.76374 [24]
351 [51]Dougherty1 - AAAA0-82.2133.53154 [28]
352 [45]Model7 - AA2-82.2018.42298 [28]
353 [30]First Presbyterian7 - A3-72.1611.70367 [29]
354 [52]Fayette County3 - AAAAA0-101.0124.53242 [43]
355 [31]Lincoln County7 - A4-60.854.67396 [35]
356 [32]Warren County7 - A5-50.79-1.49410 [42]
357 [43]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA1-90.5823.42249 [32]
358 [46]Putnam County8 - AA3-70.5118.34299 [29]
359 [31]Athens Christian8 - A3-7-0.4120.34277 [10]
360 [47]Therrell6 - AA2-8-1.0519.72284 [24]
361 [33]Towns County8 - A3-7-1.0729.38192 [4]
362 [34]Seminole County1 - A5-5-2.141.09408 [40]
363 [48]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA3-7-2.2428.64200 [47]
364 [48]East Laurens3 - AA1-9-2.9133.21158 [12]
365 [32]King's Ridge Christian6 - A1-9-3.0313.70351 [23]
366 [44]Lumpkin County7 - AAA3-7-3.5313.36356 [51]
367 [35]McIntosh County Academy3 - A1-9-3.5717.66311 [14]
368 [49]Armuchee7 - AA2-8-3.6118.13304 [31]
369 [53]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA2-8-3.7417.87309 [51]
370 [36]Hawkinsville4 - A4-6-4.229.03379 [26]
371 [52]North Clayton4 - AAAA1-9-4.5524.59240 [41]
372 [50]McNair6 - AA3-7-5.1314.51342 [47]
373 [51]Bryan County2 - AA1-8-5.4420.56274 [22]
374 [33]Landmark Christian5 - A2-8-5.5915.67332 [16]
375 [52]Social Circle8 - AA4-6-5.742.58404 [59]
376 [34]Lakeview Academy8 - A1-9-5.7722.17261 [6]
377 [53]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA2-8-6.1017.03317 [36]
378 [54]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA1-9-6.7118.24302 [30]
379 [37]Terrell County1 - A4-6-7.801.40407 [39]
380 [55]Temple5 - AA1-9-8.3122.13262 [19]
381 [45]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA2-8-8.4916.85319 [45]
382 [46]Stone Mountain5 - AAA2-8-8.9831.01178 [14]
383 [38]Lanier County2 - A0-10-9.3530.17183 [1]
384 [56]Jordan5 - AA2-8-9.6116.09327 [41]
385 [57]Dade County7 - AA1-9-9.9718.06307 [33]
386 [39]Greenville4 - A3-7-10.072.11405 [38]
387 [35]Walker6 - A1-9-10.8213.53354 [24]
388 [36]Pacelli4 - A4-6-11.121.89406 [37]
389 [40]Portal3 - A2-8-11.509.67378 [25]
390 [41]Calhoun County1 - A3-7-11.943.60399 [37]
391 [42]Wilkinson County7 - A1-9-12.1014.23346 [18]
392 [47]Long County2 - AAA0-10-12.5631.75172 [13]
393 [54]Chamblee5 - AAAAA0-10-14.8933.40155 [29]
394 [53]Druid Hills4 - AAAA2-8-14.9512.40362 [54]
395 [48]Murray County6 - AAA0-10-14.9720.88270 [38]
396 [49]Redan5 - AAA0-9-15.1032.47166 [12]
397 [50]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA0-10-15.1029.03196 [19]
398 [58]Josey4 - AA0-10-15.1115.47335 [44]
399 [58]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-10-16.3238.64108 [16]
400 [54]Gilmer6 - AAAA0-10-17.7216.80320 [49]
401 [37]Georgia Military College7 - A3-7-17.87-4.28416 [38]
402 [51]Groves3 - AAA1-9-18.1621.01267 [37]
403 [52]Kendrick4 - AAA1-9-18.4223.29250 [33]
404 [43]Treutlen3 - A3-7-21.140.87409 [41]
405 [53]East Jackson8 - AAA1-9-21.2419.00291 [43]
406 [38]Our Lady of Mercy5 - A0-10-21.5420.93268 [8]
407 [54]Rutland4 - AAA0-10-23.4826.36222 [25]
408 [44]Crawford County4 - A3-7-24.03-5.63418 [49]
409 [45]Baconton Charter1 - A3-7-24.19-4.17415 [47]
410 [55]Savannah3 - AAA0-10-26.3315.67331 [47]
411 [56]Towers5 - AAA0-9-26.5128.62202 [21]
412 [59]Oglethorpe County8 - AA0-10-27.129.77377 [55]
413 [46]Stewart County1 - A2-8-31.57-3.91414 [46]
414 [55]Clarkston5 - AAAAA†0-10-32.0912.92359 [55]
415 [47]Twiggs County7 - A0-10-36.696.21387 [29]
416 [48]Wheeler County3 - A1-9-37.945.34392 [32]
417 [1]ACE Charter7 - A†4-6-38.21-21.82420 [1]
418 [49]Central (Talbotton)4 - A0-10-44.384.33398 [36]
419 [50]Randolph-Clay1 - A0-10-57.174.96394 [33]
420 [2]Pataula Charter1 - A†2-7-59.38-43.58422 [3]
421 [3]Glascock County7 - A†1-8-1-64.79-30.57421 [2]
422 [56]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA†0-10-88.513.06401 [56]

† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA95.2379.88
23 - AAAAAAA80.0366.26
31 - AAAAAA78.5860.45
48 - AAAAAAA77.2242.19
57 - AAAAAAA70.7340.97
62 - AAAA70.5449.87
77 - AAAAA70.4241.17
84 - AAAAA70.2744.86
91 - AAAAA69.7953.59
105 - AAAA67.9348.56
114 - AAAAAAA67.2950.27
126 - AAAAAAA66.2842.25
137 - AAAA65.2240.72
146 - AAAAAA63.9142.56
155 - AAAAAAA63.4246.57
165 - AAA61.4932.40
172 - AAAAAAA60.4347.28
182 - A60.3229.79
193 - AA59.9037.87
201 - AA58.1747.01
218 - AAAA57.2442.22
224 - AAA55.9328.80
238 - AAAAA55.7337.14
242 - AAAAA54.2639.22
257 - AAA51.6018.45
268 - AAA50.2325.21
276 - AAA49.7222.99
287 - AA49.7114.14
295 - AA49.6922.08
303 - AAAA49.5838.32
318 - A49.5723.81
 8-Div A - A50.4032.90
 8-Div B - A34.0917.98
322 - AAAAAA48.7338.83
335 - AAAAAA48.6932.81
348 - AAAAAA48.4735.69
357 - AAAAAA48.3428.10
366 - AAAA46.6021.66
371 - AAAA46.1528.04
382 - AAA45.5823.65
396 - AA44.7814.29
406 - A42.7419.25
 6-Div A - A42.0826.92
 6-Div B - A30.7612.85
412 - AA41.9423.31
421 - AAA41.8423.83
436 - AAAAA41.4520.96
448 - AA40.7512.95
455 - A39.9117.60
464 - AAAAAA39.7522.17
473 - AAA39.009.87
483 - AAAAA38.5421.51
494 - AAAA37.5815.81
504 - A35.998.15
 4-Div A - A31.792.83
 4-Div B - A28.4512.17
513 - AAAAAA35.6525.29
521 - A35.64-3.44
533 - A33.868.14
 3-Div A - A34.0114.44
 3-Div B - A19.561.83
544 - AA32.8413.20
555 - AAAAA32.4017.07
567 - A24.744.65
 7-Div B - A20.365.91
 7-Div A - A18.062.88

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/21RoswellWheeler36 - 3723.2291.1%0.173
08/24Cedar ShoalsWinder-Barrow7 - 1415.6382.7%0.241
10/26Mundy's MillForest Park12 - 3612.3077.4%0.249
08/17DecaturLakeside (Atlanta)20 - 2116.7284.2%0.255
10/26CommerceRiverside Military Academy19 - 2016.2483.5%0.262
09/07Tattnall SquareLincoln County28 - 3414.5681.1%0.262
09/28Gordon CentralDade County12 - 1316.1783.4%0.263
09/07SalemAlcovy20 - 2314.3480.8%0.279
09/21Brooks CountyThomas County Central14 - 2412.5477.8%0.279
09/14Mount Zion (Carroll)Christian Heritage22 - 3012.5777.9%0.285
11/02NewtonRockdale County34 - 3513.8079.9%0.298
08/17ChattoogaAdairsville20 - 2113.7979.9%0.298
09/07NewnanGriffin17 - 2611.5076.0%0.299
09/28Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAdairsville12 - 1313.4879.4%0.303
09/21NorthgateSouth Paulding30 - 3511.4675.9%0.316

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.7809/21Colquitt CountyGrayson26 - 1415.5982.6%
80.8509/14Colquitt CountyWarner Robins41 - 1424.4992.1%
77.9109/07GraysonMarietta38 - 3111.7576.4%
77.2309/14ParkviewTift County31 - 288.8770.8%
77.0208/31ParkviewLowndes39 - 2710.5174.1%
76.4310/26HillgroveMarietta48 - 248.5570.2%
75.9910/11GraysonArcher41 - 1414.8581.5%
75.6410/26Colquitt CountyTift County45 - 729.2494.9%
75.4908/17Warner RobinsTift County40 - 296.0864.8%
75.3310/05HillgroveMcEachern31 - 219.7472.6%
75.2211/02Colquitt CountyLowndes40 - 630.8895.6%
74.4010/19LowndesTift County17 - 212.3755.9%
74.2008/18Colquitt CountyMcEachern41 - 731.2095.8%
74.0010/12McEachernMarietta27 - 280.1450.4%
73.8710/26LowndesCamden County28 - 273.2057.9%

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