Sports

Maxwell Week 4 Projections

By Loren Maxwell
Sept 8, 2016

Each game is listed showing the game rate, favorite, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, the projected margin, and the opponent.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Sep 8

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
53.12 AAAAA Griffin 77.8% 13 Upson-Lee AAAA
39.80 AAAAA Harris County 66.4% 7 Shaw AAAA
35.18 AA Callaway 92.2% 25 Columbus AAAA

Sep 9

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
87.74 AAAAAAA Roswell 66.0% 7 Colquitt County AAAAAAA
86.16 AAAAAAA Mill Creek 74.1% 11 Archer AAAAAAA
76.46 AAAAAAA Norcross 54.5% 2 North Gwinnett AAAAAAA
73.26 AAAAAA Mays 53.1% 2 Hughes AAAAAA
72.56 AAAA Cartersville 80.5% 14 Westlake AAAAAAA
72.48 AAAAAAA Camden County 58.9% 4 Glynn Academy AAAAAA
71.83 AAAAAA Valdosta 80.9% 15 Tift County AAAAAAA
67.03 AAAAAAA South Gwinnett 78.3% 13 South Forsyth AAAAAAA
64.79 AAAAAA Northside (Warner Robins) 74.1% 11 Lanier AAAAAA
64.74 AAAAAAA Peachtree Ridge 77.1% 12 Newton AAAAAAA
64.12 AAAAA Kell 67.4% 7 Rome AAAAA
64.03 AAAA St. Pius X 53.3% 2 Marist AAAA
63.78 AAAA Blessed Trinity 75.1% 11 Creekview AAAAAA
63.61 AAAAA Ware County 74.2% 11 Grady AAAAA
62.93 AAAAAAA Etowah 64.9% 6 Newnan AAAAAAA
62.52 AAAA Thomson 68.8% 8 Pace Academy AAA
62.27 AAAAAAA Lowndes 83.4% 16 Shiloh AAAAAAA
60.73 AAAAAAA Central Gwinnett 63.7% 6 Collins Hill AAAAAAA
60.56 AAAAAAA Hillgrove 76.5% 12 West Forsyth AAAAAAA
59.57 AAAAAA Northgate 72.9% 10 Douglas County AAAAAA
56.91 AAAAA Jones County 70.7% 9 Locust Grove AAAAA
56.70 AAAAAAA Lambert 62.8% 5 Cherokee AAAAAAA
56.22 A - Private Eagle's Landing Christian 69.0% 8 Hart County AAA
56.15 AAAAAA Alpharetta 73.5% 10 Centennial AAAAAA
55.81 AAAAAA Lovejoy 68.3% 8 Spalding AAAA
55.68 AAAAAA Stephenson 70.3% 9 Southwest DeKalb AAAAA
55.06 AAAAA Bainbridge 68.2% 8 Cairo AAAA
53.62 AAAAAA Alexander 83.7% 16 South Paulding AAAAAA
53.32 AAAAA Thomas County Central 68.6% 8 Monroe AAA
52.83 AA Vidalia 60.4% 5 West Laurens AAAA
52.34 AAAAA Hiram 59.0% 4 Paulding County AAAAA
50.41 AAAAA Stockbridge 93.0% 26 Dutchtown AAAAA
50.40 AA Fitzgerald 85.2% 18 Macon County A - Public
50.36 AAAA Woodward Academy 87.9% 20 Riverwood AAAAA
50.31 AAAAAA Brunswick 70.3% 9 Wayne County AAAAA
48.26 AAAAAAA Marietta 61.1% 5 Pebblebrook AAAAAAA
48.15 AAAAAAA East Coweta 90.1% 22 LaGrange AAAA
48.09 AAAA Burke County 78.9% 13 Lakeside (Evans) AAAAAA
47.54 AAAAAA Houston County 92.6% 25 Veterans AAAAA
47.22 AAAA Northwest Whitfield 52.2% 1 Model AA
46.82 AAA Pierce County 57.9% 3 Richmond Hill AAAAAA
46.41 AAAA Eastside 73.1% 10 Loganville AAAAA
45.99 AA Dodge County 69.4% 8 Appling County AAA
45.73 AAAA Stephens County 52.7% 1 Flowery Branch AAAAA
45.38 AAA Liberty County 73.3% 10 Jenkins AAA
44.26 AAAAA East Paulding 83.3% 16 Villa Rica AAAAA
44.17 A - Private Aquinas 62.6% 5 Calvary Day A - Private
44.09 AAAAAAA Woodstock 78.2% 13 Kennesaw Mountain AAAAAAA
43.66 AAAAAA Creekside 93.0% 26 New Manchester AAAAAA
43.50 AAA North Hall 57.5% 3 Pickens AAAA
42.72 AAAAAA Mundy's Mill 74.3% 11 Fayette County AAAAA
42.23 AAAAAA Effingham County 76.9% 12 South Effingham AAAAA
41.77 AAA Peach County 83.2% 16 Perry AAAA
41.72 AAAAA Starr's Mill 82.1% 15 Chapel Hill AAAA
41.68 AA Heard County 64.8% 6 Darlington A - Private
41.60 AAA Worth County 58.4% 4 Early County AA
41.46 AAAA Salem 63.3% 6 Miller Grove AAAAA
41.24 AA Lamar County 66.5% 7 Troup AAAA
40.63 AAAAAAA McEachern 99.2% 40 Jonesboro AAAAAA
40.62 AAAAAA Cambridge 75.7% 12 Chattahoochee AAAAAA
40.48 AAA Cedar Grove 89.6% 22 Columbia AAAAA
39.90 AAAA Baldwin 52.3% 1 Washington County AA
39.76 AAAAAA Johns Creek 75.8% 12 Pope AAAAAA
39.36 AAAAA McIntosh 65.1% 6 Luella AAAA
38.83 AA Pepperell 60.5% 5 Cedartown AAAA
38.26 AAAAAA Dalton 95.8% 30 Sonoraville AAA
38.24 A - Private Wesleyan 79.7% 14 Hapeville Charter AA
38.16 AAAAA Statesboro 59.4% 4 Screven County AA
36.71 AAAA Oconee County 86.5% 19 Morgan County AAA
35.57 A - Private Savannah Christian 59.1% 4 Charlton County A - Public
35.37 AAAAAA Lee County 98.2% 37 Americus-Sumter AAAA
35.09 AAAAAA Heritage (Conyers) 70.2% 9 Rockdale County AAAAAAA
33.21 AAA Central (Macon) 69.3% 8 Southwest AA
32.67 AA Benedictine 98.8% 39 Southeast Bulloch AAA
32.66 AAAAA Cedar Shoals 73.9% 11 North Oconee AAAA
31.90 AAAA Madison County 64.4% 6 Lumpkin County AAA
31.89 AAAAAA Habersham Central 62.2% 5 Franklin County AAA
31.76 A - Public McIntosh County Academy 58.4% 4 Bryan County AA
31.26 A - Private First Presbyterian 72.5% 10 Hawkinsville A - Public
30.96 A - Private Athens Christian 53.6% 2 Athens Academy A - Private
30.38 AA B.E.S.T. Academy 56.6% 3 Douglass AA
30.10 AA Jefferson County 93.7% 27 Washington-Wilkes A - Public
29.86 AA Dublin 82.7% 16 Swainsboro AA
29.41 A - Private Landmark Christian 85.7% 18 Brookstone A - Private
29.37 AAAAAAA Lakeside (Atlanta) 60.7% 5 Druid Hills AAAA
29.35 AAAAA Eagle's Landing 85.5% 18 Union Grove AAAAA
28.26 AAAAAA Sprayberry 91.5% 24 Campbell AAAAAAA
27.80 AAAA West Hall 77.8% 13 Jackson County AAA
27.74 AAAA Ridgeland 87.8% 20 Chattooga AA
27.62 AAAA North Clayton 75.5% 11 Maynard Jackson AAAAA
27.00 A - Public Trion 78.4% 13 Bremen AAA
26.62 AA Rabun County 94.1% 27 White County AAAA
26.55 AAA North Murray 67.9% 8 Heritage (Ringgold) AAAA
26.46 AAAA Howard 58.9% 4 Rutland AAA
26.23 AAAAAA North Atlanta 54.5% 2 Dunwoody AAAAAA
25.69 AAAAAAA Forsyth Central 80.1% 14 Meadowcreek AAAAAAA
25.45 AAA Monroe Area 50.5% 1 Walnut Grove AAAAA
25.30 A - Private Fellowship Christian 78.2% 13 Our Lady of Mercy A - Private
25.12 AAAAA Whitewater 92.5% 25 Banneker AAAAA
24.95 A - Public Johnson County 53.5% 2 Wilkinson County A - Public
24.94 AA Washington 61.4% 5 Lithia Springs AAAAA
24.35 AA Bacon County 66.6% 7 Berrien AA
24.08 AA Spencer 83.9% 17 Kendrick AAA
23.45 AAAA Chestatee 55.8% 3 Fannin County AAA
23.26 A - Private Stratford Academy 82.8% 16 Atkinson County A - Public
20.70 A - Private Christian Heritage 65.4% 7 Murray County AAA
20.45 AA Northeast 55.2% 2 Twiggs County A - Public
19.97 AAAAAAA Discovery 53.4% 2 Apalachee AAAAAA
19.80 AAAAAA Bradwell Institute 72.1% 10 Warren County A - Public
19.37 A - Public Telfair County 70.1% 9 Toombs County AA
19.31 A - Public Mount Zion (Carroll) 88.4% 20 Coosa AA
19.22 A - Public Mitchell County 60.7% 5 Miller County A - Public
17.90 AAAAAA Osborne 60.5% 5 K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate AA
17.72 AAAA Northside (Columbus) 87.9% 20 Jordan AA
17.07 AAA Tattnall County 81.5% 15 Beach AAA
16.33 AAAAA Cass 94.1% 27 Woodland (Cartersville) AAAAA
15.52 A - Public Greene County 82.8% 16 Monticello AA
14.98 AAA Brantley County 84.1% 17 Jeff Davis AA
14.54 AAAAA Woodland (Stockbridge) 98.4% 37 Hampton AAAAA
13.80 A - Public Seminole County 88.9% 21 Chattahoochee County A - Public
13.27 AA Bleckley County 75.3% 11 Wilcox County A - Public
12.93 A - Private Mount Pisgah Christian 93.7% 27 Walker A - Private
12.56 AAAA Sandy Creek 99.8% 41 Morrow AAAAA
12.55 AAAA Cross Creek 69.7% 9 Westside (Augusta) AA
12.42 A - Private Tattnall Square 74.0% 11 East Laurens AA
11.95 A - Private Savannah Country Day 67.4% 7 Johnson (Savannah) AAA
11.36 AAA Pike County 79.5% 14 Strong Rock Christian A - Private
11.30 A - Public Bowdon 92.1% 24 Greenville A - Public
11.07 AAAAAA Greenbrier 82.6% 16 Harlem AA
10.73 AAAA Richmond Academy 88.6% 21 Josey AA
9.74 A - Public Jenkins County 66.8% 7 Portal A - Public
7.53 AAA East Hall 84.9% 17 Johnson (Gainesville) AAAAA
7.19 A - Private Mount de Sales 75.6% 12 Social Circle AA
7.10 A - Public Marion County 97.3% 34 Pacelli A - Private
6.10 AAAA Mary Persons 99.5% 41 Forest Park AAAAAA
5.87 AAAAAA Evans 98.5% 38 Glenn Hills AA
5.67 AA Metter 91.9% 24 Claxton A - Public
5.18 A - Other Georgia Military College 56.1% 3 Schley County A - Public
5.15 A - Private Whitefield Academy 54.0% 2 King's Ridge Christian A - Private
4.49 A - Private George Walton Academy 87.3% 19 Riverside Military Academy A - Private
3.29 AA Temple 73.4% 10 Armuchee AA
2.38 AAA East Jackson 68.3% 8 Oglethorpe County AA
1.16 A - Private Mount Vernon Presbyterian 83.1% 16 North Cobb Christian A - Private
0.29 A - Private Prince Avenue Christian 99.6% 41 Towns County A - Public
-1.27 AA Butler 78.8% 13 Hephzibah AAAA
-1.89 A - Public Lanier County 67.4% 7 Groves AAA
-2.04 AAA Long County 87.4% 19 Windsor Forest AAA
-2.84 A - Public Wheeler County 63.3% 6 Montgomery County A - Public
-3.42 A - Public Commerce 98.9% 39 Lakeview Academy A - Private
-6.80 A - Public Taylor County 95.9% 31 Central (Talbotton) A - Public
-7.85 AA South Atlanta 90.4% 22 Clarkston AAAAA
-10.78 A - Private Hebron Christian Academy 94.0% 27 Providence Christian A - Private
-11.92 A - Public Gordon Lee 98.0% 36 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe AAA
-13.40 AAAA LaFayette 92.9% 26 Gordon Central AA
-26.24 A - Other Glascock County 69.3% 8 Stewart County A - Public

Sep 10

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
53.70 AAAAAA Dacula 91.8% 24 Arabia Mountain AAAAA
31.82 AAAAAA Alcovy 66.5% 7 Henry County AAAA
22.41 AAAA Westover 89.3% 21 Dougherty AAA
20.63 AA Therrell 72.1% 10 McNair AAA

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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