The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results after Week Four:
- Grayson is 3-0 against the tenth toughest schedule in the state, Ware County is 3-0 against the fourth toughest schedule in Class AAAAA, Buford is 3-0 against the fourth toughest schedule in Class AAAA, and Greater Atlanta Christian is 3-0 against the seventh toughest schedule in Class AA. Blessed Trinity, Calhoun, Washington County, and Westminster (Atlanta) are all 3-0 against schedules that rated among the toughest eight in Class AAA.
- Meanwhile, McEachern earned its first win against the state's toughest schedule with a victory over Peachtree Ridge. Archer drops to 0-3 against the state's second toughest schedule to date, but is favored in six of their last seven regular season games.
- Although Colquitt County is clearly on top, Class AAAAAA is generally characterized by parity. There is roughly a 14-point difference separating #2 Camden County and #22 Archer, which can be overcome by one key turnaround play in a game.
- Region 1-AAAAAA is still marching on history with the ratings showing an 83.2% chance of defeating their last seven non-region opponents to finish the season 29-0. The closest game left, and perhaps the one to watch for anyone following the streak, is Lowndes' matchup against Newton this Friday. Still, the ratings show Lowndes as a 28-point favorite with a 94.4% chance of winning.
- The region ratings have been expanded for this week. Each region's record against outside competition and the schedule strength against their outside competition is shown. Region 8-AAAAAA is 7-11 against the toughest schedule.
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 34.70%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 575 of 608 total games including 4 ties (94.90%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.61 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
Home Advantage: 0.17
By Class
All-Class
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition. Each region's record is its record against outside competition while the region's schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against its outside opponents.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
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