Sports

Maxwell Round 2 Summary: Bracket Busters grab spotlight in top two classifications

By Todd Holcomb
Nov 25, 2014

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Round 2:

- Nine of the 56 remaining teams would qualify as "Bracket Busters" according to Maxwell. A bracket buster would be any team that would have less than a 50% probability of surviving to this point if the tournament were to be replayed again. Of the nine, six are in Class AAAAAA and Class AAAAA. This includes the state's top bracket buster, Newton, who opened the playoffs with their first postseason victory in nearly 30 years with an upset of the state's most successful program, Valdosta. If Newton were to face Valdosta and Central Gwinnett again, Maxwell estimates they would have a 15.3% chance of defeating them both.

- However, bracket busters are not necessarily weaker teams who have pulled off big upsets. Included in the group are Tucker, Archer, Jones County, West Laurens, and Pace Academy. Each would be favored over the competition they've already defeated, but the chances of them winning all of the contests again falls below 50%. This is indicative of a good team surviving a tough draw.

- Below are the nine bracket busters by class (Class AAA and Class A do not have any bracket busters to date):

AAAAAA
Team Prob
Newton 15.3%
Tucker 41.2%
Archer 48.4%
AAAAA
Team Prob
Glynn Academy 23.9%
Mays 31.1%
Jones County 38.9%
AAAA
Team Prob
West Laurens 49.1%
AA
Team Prob
Heard County 23.7%
Pace Academy 28.7%

- Washington County was unseated again as the top team in Class AAA, this time by Blessed Trinity. The last team to hold the number one spot in the Maxwell ratings aside from Washington County was Peach County, who held it for one week before being upset in the first round of the playoffs by Appling County. In Class AA, Greater Atlanta Christian has moved past Vidalia into number one. However Vidalia has a prime opportunity to reclaim the top spot this Friday when the two face off in perhaps the best quarterfinals matchup across all classifications.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.10%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,979 of 2,192 total games including 4 ties (90.37%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.89 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 0.78

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 12-0 104.77 1 Allatoona 12-0 83.15
2 Tucker 10-2 87.72 2 Northside (Warner Robins) 11-1 74.22
3 Grayson 10-2 86.52 3 Ware County 11-1 73.80
4 Archer 9-3 84.80 4 Mays 10-2 73.22
5 Dacula 10-2 84.79 5 Houston County 10-2 69.71
6 Lee County 8-3 81.25 6 Coffee 10-2 69.17
7 Milton 11-1 80.82 7 Jones County 10-2 66.62
8 McEachern 9-3 80.37 8 Creekside 9-3 66.59
9 Mill Creek 7-4 80.26 9 Stockbridge 10-2 65.57
10 Valdosta 9-2 79.23 10 South Paulding 8-3 65.45
11 North Gwinnett 8-3 77.70 11 Dalton 9-3 65.13
12 Tift County 7-4 77.47 12 Kell 11-1 64.60
13 Lowndes 6-4 76.69 13 Gainesville 10-2 63.11
14 Peachtree Ridge 7-4 76.08 14 Alexander 8-3 62.66
15 Hillgrove 9-3 75.12 15 Glynn Academy 9-3 62.37
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 12-0 91.07 1 Blessed Trinity 12-0 81.07
2 Marist 11-1 73.39 2 Washington County 12-0 77.79
3 Cartersville 11-1 71.74 3 Jefferson 12-0 77.11
4 Sandy Creek 11-1 71.10 4 Calhoun 12-0 75.89
5 Woodward Academy 10-2 70.04 5 Westminster (Atlanta) 11-1 71.19
6 St. Pius X 10-2 67.36 6 Hart County 11-1 67.72
7 North Oconee 9-3 64.38 7 Peach County 10-1 61.31
8 Griffin 11-1 62.70 8 Elbert County 9-3 60.73
9 Mary Persons 9-3 62.25 9 Central (Carrollton) 11-1 59.69
10 Whitewater 7-4 61.21 10 Cook 9-3 57.60
11 West Laurens 9-3 58.65 11 Pierce County 10-2 57.10
12 Cairo 9-3 58.19 12 Cedar Grove 9-3 56.89
13 Columbia 7-4 55.51 13 Westside (Macon) 9-2 55.96
14 Stephens County 8-4 54.40 14 Dodge County 9-3 55.81
15 Baldwin 7-5 52.17 15 Adairsville 10-2 55.76
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 12-0 75.32 1 Mount Paran Christian 11-0 63.91
2 Vidalia 12-0 74.26 2 Marion County 11-0 57.47
3 Benedictine 10-2 68.69 3 Irwin County 9-1-1 53.40
4 Lovett 9-3 64.65 4 Calvary Day 11-0 53.01
5 Fitzgerald 11-1 62.79 5 Hawkinsville 10-1 52.37
6 Brooks County 9-3 55.85 6 Aquinas 11-0 50.64
7 Thomasville 6-5 53.61 7 Savannah Christian 10-1 49.88
8 Macon County 9-3 51.29 8 Eagle's Landing Christian 5-6 47.58
9 Lamar County 8-3-1 45.66 9 Mount Pisgah Christian 8-3 46.66
10 Pace Academy 7-5 42.20 10 Charlton County 10-1 46.39
11 Rabun County 9-3 42.00 11 Landmark Christian 8-3 43.27
12 Bowdon 8-3 40.82 12 Dooly County 8-3 42.89
13 Bacon County 6-5 40.42 13 Tattnall Square 10-1 42.64
14 Jefferson County 8-4 39.12 14 Pacelli 7-4 41.53
15 Model 9-3 38.24 15 Mount Zion (Carroll) 8-3 39.68

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

### = Active playoff team; # = Eliminated playoff team

Rank Team Playoffs Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County ### 1-AAAAAA 12-0 104.77 70.08 5 [5]
2 [1] Buford ### 8-AAAA 12-0 91.07 43.05 150 [29]
3 [2] Tucker ### 2-AAAAAA 10-2 87.72 49.67 85 [50]
4 [3] Grayson # 8-AAAAAA 10-2 86.52 69.13 9 [9]
5 [4] Archer ### 8-AAAAAA 9-3 84.80 69.14 8 [8]
6 [5] Dacula # 8-AAAAAA 10-2 84.79 69.95 6 [6]
7 [1] Allatoona ### 5-AAAAA 12-0 83.15 55.33 59 [10]
8 [6] Lee County # 1-AAAAAA 8-3 81.25 67.15 14 [14]
9 [1] Blessed Trinity ### 4-Div B-AAA 12-0 81.07 44.16 133 [3]
10 [7] Milton ### 5-AAAAAA 11-1 80.82 61.30 30 [30]
11 [8] McEachern ### 4-AAAAAA 9-3 80.37 67.92 12 [12]
12 [9] Mill Creek # 7-AAAAAA 7-4 80.26 66.85 16 [16]
13 [10] Valdosta # 1-AAAAAA 9-2 79.23 64.97 23 [23]
14 [2] Washington County ### 3-AAA 12-0 77.79 34.42 247 [27]
15 [11] North Gwinnett # 7-AAAAAA 8-3 77.70 66.31 18 [18]
16 [12] Tift County # 1-AAAAAA 7-4 77.47 65.83 21 [21]
17 [3] Jefferson ### 8-AAA 12-0 77.11 39.82 192 [11]
18 [13] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 6-4 76.69 72.28 2 [2]
19 [14] Peachtree Ridge # 7-AAAAAA 7-4 76.08 68.12 11 [11]
20 [4] Calhoun ### 6-AAA 12-0 75.89 27.97 322 [48]
21 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian ### 6-AA 12-0 75.32 40.16 186 [8]
22 [15] Hillgrove ### 4-AAAAAA 9-3 75.12 62.14 27 [27]
23 [16] Etowah ### 5-AAAAAA 10-2 74.81 58.49 38 [38]
24 [2] Vidalia ### 2-AA 12-0 74.26 30.21 298 [28]
25 [2] Northside (Warner Robins) ### 2-AAAAA 11-1 74.22 51.31 76 [19]
26 [17] Hughes # 3-AAAAAA 9-3 73.88 61.82 29 [29]
27 [3] Ware County # 3-AAAAA 11-1 73.80 48.59 99 [35]
28 [2] Marist ### 6-AAAA 11-1 73.39 44.90 123 [21]
29 [18] Lovejoy # 2-AAAAAA 7-4 73.31 64.02 25 [25]
30 [4] Mays ### 6-Div B-AAAAA 10-2 73.22 54.07 64 [12]
31 [19] Westlake # 3-AAAAAA 9-2 72.08 51.74 72 [49]
32 [20] Norcross # 7-AAAAAA 7-4 71.86 68.37 10 [10]
33 [3] Cartersville ### 7-AAAA 11-1 71.74 41.99 162 [33]
35 [21] Newton ### 2-AAAAAA 7-3 71.19 56.30 47 [42]
34 [5] Westminster (Atlanta) ### 4-Div B-AAA 11-1 71.19 42.62 156 [5]
36 [4] Sandy Creek ### 5-AAAA 11-1 71.10 52.57 68 [6]
37 [22] Central Gwinnett # 8-AAAAAA 7-5 71.09 67.34 13 [13]
38 [23] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 5-5 71.08 69.56 7 [7]
39 [24] North Cobb # 4-AAAAAA 7-4 70.82 65.43 22 [22]
40 [5] Woodward Academy ### 5-AAAA 10-2 70.04 50.82 77 [8]
41 [5] Houston County ### 2-AAAAA 10-2 69.71 48.80 95 [31]
42 [6] Coffee # 3-AAAAA 10-2 69.17 48.13 103 [36]
43 [3] Benedictine ### 2-AA 10-2 68.69 37.58 216 [14]
44 [6] Hart County ### 8-AAA 11-1 67.72 37.36 217 [17]
45 [25] Roswell # 5-AAAAAA 8-4 67.60 60.46 34 [34]
46 [6] St. Pius X ### 6-AAAA 10-2 67.36 44.42 131 [23]
47 [26] Alpharetta # 6-AAAAAA 10-2 66.68 43.80 140 [53]
48 [7] Jones County ### 2-AAAAA 10-2 66.62 50.76 79 [21]
49 [8] Creekside # 6-Div B-AAAAA 9-3 66.59 55.97 51 [7]
50 [9] Stockbridge ### 4-Div B-AAAAA 10-2 65.57 45.66 115 [43]
51 [10] South Paulding # 5-AAAAA 8-3 65.45 56.07 49 [5]
52 [11] Dalton # 7-Div A-AAAAA 9-3 65.13 46.60 111 [41]
53 [4] Lovett ### 6-AA 9-3 64.65 43.90 137 [3]
54 [12] Kell # 7-Div B-AAAAA 11-1 64.60 47.31 107 [38]
55 [27] Cherokee # 5-AAAAAA 7-4 64.53 56.26 48 [43]
56 [7] North Oconee ### 8-AAAA 9-3 64.38 48.12 104 [15]
57 [28] East Coweta # 3-AAAAAA 8-3 64.22 54.24 63 [48]
58 [29] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 5-5 64.12 66.03 19 [19]
59 [30] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 4-6 64.04 66.83 17 [17]
60 [1] Mount Paran Christian ### 6-Div A-A 11-0 63.91 29.41 310 [21]
61 [13] Gainesville ### 8-AAAAA 10-2 63.11 43.86 138 [54]
62 [5] Fitzgerald ### 1-AA 11-1 62.79 41.96 163 [4]
63 [8] Griffin # 4-Div B-AAAA 11-1 62.70 33.21 267 [57]
64 [14] Alexander # 5-AAAAA 8-3 62.66 55.73 53 [8]
65 [15] Glynn Academy ### 3-AAAAA 9-3 62.37 51.57 74 [18]
66 [9] Mary Persons # 2-AAAA 9-3 62.25 48.94 90 [11]
67 [7] Peach County # 2-AAA 10-1 61.31 32.20 279 [36]
68 [10] Whitewater # 5-AAAA 7-4 61.21 53.27 67 [5]
69 [16] Stephenson # 6-Div A-AAAAA 8-4 61.08 46.94 109 [40]
70 [8] Elbert County ### 8-AAA 9-3 60.73 44.94 121 [1]
71 [31] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 6-4 60.52 55.45 55 [45]
72 [17] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 6-4 60.48 50.70 80 [22]
73 [32] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 3-7 60.44 67.01 15 [15]
74 [9] Central (Carrollton) # 5-AAA 11-1 59.69 33.31 265 [30]
75 [18] Hiram 5-AAAAA 6-4 59.62 52.53 69 [15]
76 [33] Walton 5-AAAAAA 5-5 59.52 60.66 33 [33]
77 [19] New Manchester # 5-AAAAA 6-5 59.03 56.51 45 [3]
78 [20] Lanier # 8-AAAAA 10-1 58.99 41.74 165 [66]
79 [21] Harris County # 1-AAAAA 9-3 58.79 43.68 141 [56]
80 [11] West Laurens ### 2-AAAA 9-3 58.65 49.38 89 [10]
81 [34] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 3-7 58.46 70.34 4 [4]
82 [22] Carver (Atlanta) # 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-3 58.42 48.62 97 [33]
83 [12] Cairo # 1-Div A-AAAA 9-3 58.19 46.18 112 [17]
84 [23] Warner Robins # 2-AAAAA 6-5 57.62 53.51 65 [13]
85 [10] Cook # 1-Div A-AAA 9-3 57.60 37.97 213 [15]
86 [2] Marion County ### 4-A 11-0 57.47 28.44 319 [26]
87 [35] North Paulding # 4-AAAAAA 4-7 57.23 65.85 20 [20]
88 [36] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-5 57.20 58.70 37 [37]
89 [11] Pierce County ### 1-Div A-AAA 10-2 57.10 38.17 211 [14]
90 [12] Cedar Grove # 4-Div A-AAA 9-3 56.89 36.25 228 [20]
91 [37] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 2-8 56.66 71.25 3 [3]
92 [24] Mundy's Mill # 4-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 56.62 47.90 105 [37]
93 [25] Drew # 4-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 56.15 47.16 108 [39]
94 [13] Westside (Macon) # 2-AAA 9-2 55.96 35.50 236 [23]
95 [6] Brooks County ### 1-AA 9-3 55.85 41.05 177 [6]
96 [14] Dodge County # 1-Div A-AAA 9-3 55.81 41.42 171 [7]
97 [26] Carver (Columbus) # 1-AAAAA 8-3 55.80 41.41 172 [67]
98 [15] Adairsville # 6-AAA 10-2 55.76 22.63 377 [66]
99 [38] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 4-6 55.71 59.12 35 [35]
100 [13] Columbia # 6-AAAA 7-4 55.51 44.88 124 [22]
101 [27] Sequoyah # 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-6 55.50 55.40 57 [9]
102 [39] Douglas County # 3-AAAAAA 5-6 55.39 57.16 44 [41]
103 [28] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 4-6 54.88 56.01 50 [6]
104 [14] Stephens County # 8-AAAA 8-4 54.40 43.97 136 [25]
105 [40] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 3-7 54.03 62.33 26 [26]
106 [29] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 53.71 44.71 127 [50]
107 [7] Thomasville # 1-AA 6-5 53.61 52.31 70 [1]
108 [30] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 5-5 53.59 53.29 66 [14]
109 [41] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 4-6 53.45 58.12 39 [39]
110 [3] Irwin County ### 2-A 9-1-1 53.40 33.28 266 [9]
111 [4] Calvary Day ### 3-Div A-A 11-0 53.01 23.30 371 [45]
112 [31] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 5-5 52.96 54.40 61 [11]
113 [5] Hawkinsville ### 4-A 10-1 52.37 30.91 294 [13]
114 [15] Baldwin # 2-AAAA 7-5 52.17 48.44 100 [14]
115 [16] Wayne County # 3-AAAA 6-6 51.74 48.86 91 [12]
116 [17] Carrollton 5-AAAA 4-6 51.70 55.45 56 [3]
117 [32] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 51.43 49.59 87 [27]
118 [8] Macon County # 4-AA 9-3 51.29 36.26 227 [16]
119 [18] Fayette County # 5-AAAA 4-7 51.05 55.47 54 [2]
120 [16] Appling County # 1-Div A-AAA 8-4 51.02 43.28 147 [4]
121 [19] Worth County # 1-Div B-AAAA 6-4 50.89 46.00 113 [18]
122 [6] Aquinas ### 7-Div B-A 11-0 50.64 25.17 350 [36]
123 [33] Brunswick # 3-AAAAA 6-5 50.38 48.82 94 [29]
124 [34] Creekview # 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-5 50.34 49.47 88 [28]
125 [35] Starr's Mill # 4-Div A-AAAAA 6-5 50.34 48.60 98 [34]
126 [42] Lambert # 6-AAAAAA 7-4 50.11 41.74 166 [57]
127 [36] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 49.98 38.51 209 [80]
128 [7] Savannah Christian ### 3-Div A-A 10-1 49.88 22.23 379 [51]
129 [43] Rockdale County # 2-AAAAAA 5-6 49.86 57.53 41 [40]
130 [44] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 4-6 49.82 54.40 60 [46]
131 [20] Burke County # 3-AAAA 7-5 49.67 43.47 143 [27]
132 [37] Evans 2-AAAAA 5-5 49.46 49.84 84 [25]
133 [38] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 49.30 48.72 96 [32]
134 [45] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-7 49.03 60.84 32 [32]
135 [21] Troup 5-AAAA 3-7 48.87 55.35 58 [4]
136 [46] Northview # 6-AAAAAA 7-4 48.78 39.18 198 [62]
137 [22] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 48.73 41.63 168 [34]
138 [23] Pickens # 7-AAAA 8-3 48.57 36.39 223 [45]
139 [47] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 3-7 48.12 55.93 52 [44]
140 [17] Laney # 3-AAA 7-4 48.00 31.79 283 [38]
141 [8] Eagle's Landing Christian ### 5-A 5-6 47.58 48.43 101 [1]
142 [39] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 47.51 38.90 204 [77]
143 [40] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 46.99 41.32 174 [68]
144 [24] Westover # 1-Div B-AAAA 6-5 46.82 43.09 148 [28]
145 [9] Mount Pisgah Christian ### 6-Div B-A 8-3 46.66 33.50 262 [8]
146 [18] Callaway # 5-AAA 7-5 46.60 39.51 195 [12]
147 [41] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 4-5-1 46.51 50.31 81 [23]
148 [25] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 7-3 46.50 37.13 220 [44]
149 [10] Charlton County ### 2-A 10-1 46.39 29.22 313 [24]
150 [42] Winder-Barrow # 8-AAAAA 6-5 46.31 45.56 117 [45]
151 [26] Bainbridge # 1-Div B-AAAA 6-5 46.28 43.56 142 [26]
152 [43] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 45.90 40.25 183 [72]
153 [48] Pope 5-AAAAAA 2-8 45.85 61.17 31 [31]
154 [9] Lamar County # 4-AA 8-3-1 45.66 33.32 264 [23]
155 [27] Veterans # 2-AAAA 3-8 45.63 57.23 43 [1]
156 [49] South Forsyth # 6-AAAAAA 6-5 45.51 41.46 170 [58]
157 [44] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 6-4 45.50 45.45 118 [46]
158 [50] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 6-4 45.49 40.53 181 [61]
159 [19] West Hall # 7-AAA 9-2 45.44 27.21 329 [51]
160 [28] Gilmer # 7-AAAA 8-3 45.43 35.55 234 [49]
161 [29] White County # 8-AAAA 6-5 45.28 44.10 135 [24]
162 [45] Salem # 8-AAAAA 6-5 45.26 43.82 139 [55]
163 [20] Oconee County # 8-AAA 8-4 44.98 36.48 222 [19]
164 [46] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 5-5 44.11 43.03 151 [60]
165 [30] Grady 6-AAAA 5-5 43.57 41.18 176 [35]
166 [47] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 43.39 37.66 215 [81]
167 [11] Landmark Christian # 5-A 8-3 43.27 30.87 295 [14]
168 [12] Dooly County ### 4-A 8-3 42.89 31.17 289 [12]
169 [48] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 42.88 40.00 189 [73]
170 [49] LaGrange # 1-AAAAA 5-6 42.85 44.28 132 [52]
171 [13] Tattnall Square ### 7-Div A-A 10-1 42.64 20.85 384 [53]
172 [31] Eagle's Landing # 4-Div A-AAAA 8-3 42.62 34.54 246 [54]
173 [51] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-10 42.60 64.94 24 [24]
174 [10] Pace Academy ### 6-AA 7-5 42.20 38.65 208 [13]
175 [50] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 42.03 43.39 145 [58]
176 [11] Rabun County # 8-AA 9-3 42.00 27.71 326 [35]
177 [51] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 41.99 44.85 125 [48]
178 [21] Ringgold # 6-AAA 8-3 41.86 26.22 340 [54]
179 [52] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 4-6 41.70 45.37 120 [47]
180 [52] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-10 41.64 72.92 1 [1]
181 [14] Pacelli # 4-A 7-4 41.53 33.72 259 [6]
182 [32] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 41.48 35.66 233 [48]
184 [22] Jackson # 2-AAA 7-4 41.45 33.97 255 [29]
183 [33] Eastside # 4-Div A-AAAA 7-5 41.45 38.82 205 [40]
185 [23] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-4 41.38 32.63 272 [32]
186 [12] Bowdon # 5-AA 8-3 40.82 28.40 320 [33]
187 [53] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 40.51 39.78 193 [75]
188 [54] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-6 40.47 44.12 134 [53]
189 [13] Bacon County # 2-AA 6-5 40.42 35.34 237 [17]
190 [34] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-6 40.03 46.80 110 [16]
191 [15] Mount Zion (Carroll) ### 6-Div A-A 8-3 39.68 24.53 357 [38]
192 [35] Locust Grove # 4-Div A-AAAA 8-3 39.60 32.36 275 [60]
193 [55] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 39.53 50.03 82 [24]
194 [36] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 6-4 39.34 33.10 269 [59]
195 [14] Jefferson County # 3-AA 8-4 39.12 29.58 308 [30]
196 [16] Commerce ### 8-A 9-2 38.98 18.82 393 [57]
197 [24] Maynard Jackson # 4-Div A-AAA 7-4 38.89 34.99 244 [26]
198 [37] Lithonia # 6-AAAA 6-5 38.35 36.38 224 [46]
199 [15] Model # 7-AA 9-3 38.24 27.09 330 [37]
200 [38] Madison County 8-AAAA 5-5 38.23 38.11 212 [42]
201 [56] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 5-5 37.96 38.93 201 [76]
202 [17] Prince Avenue Christian ### 8-A 9-2 37.64 14.94 407 [66]
203 [39] Howard 2-AAAA 3-6-1 37.61 42.99 153 [30]
204 [57] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-7 37.58 45.64 116 [44]
205 [16] Wesleyan # 6-AA 6-5 37.47 34.04 254 [19]
206 [40] Thomson # 3-AAAA 4-7 37.38 42.18 160 [32]
207 [18] Clinch County # 2-A 6-5 37.30 33.95 256 [5]
208 [17] Bleckley County # 4-AA 5-6 37.27 40.20 184 [7]
209 [18] Early County 1-AA 3-6-1 37.25 41.68 167 [5]
210 [25] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 4-6 37.23 40.19 185 [9]
211 [19] Berrien # 1-AA 4-7 37.15 48.23 102 [2]
214 [21] Darlington # 7-AA 9-2 37.12 22.76 376 [47]
212 [58] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 37.12 40.34 182 [71]
213 [20] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 5-5 37.12 39.20 197 [9]
215 [53] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-5 37.10 41.34 173 [59]
216 [26] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 36.76 35.76 232 [22]
217 [59] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 3-7 36.64 50.78 78 [20]
218 [19] Emanuel County Institute # 3-Div B-A 8-3 35.86 23.24 372 [46]
219 [22] Heard County ### 5-AA 7-5 35.57 31.05 292 [26]
220 [23] Union County # 8-AA 9-2 35.39 19.62 391 [52]
221 [41] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-5 35.32 35.08 241 [51]
222 [24] Coosa # 7-AA 8-4 35.17 26.80 334 [40]
223 [42] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 4-6 34.84 39.90 191 [37]
224 [20] Stratford Academy # 7-Div A-A 6-5 34.72 29.73 305 [18]
225 [60] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 3-7 34.71 43.02 152 [61]
226 [25] Screven County # 3-AA 10-2 34.66 24.12 360 [45]
227 [61] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 34.66 41.78 164 [65]
228 [43] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-7 34.62 48.84 92 [13]
229 [62] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-8 34.58 49.64 86 [26]
230 [26] Washington-Wilkes # 8-AA 7-5 34.55 29.11 315 [31]
231 [63] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 34.48 42.88 154 [62]
232 [64] Loganville 8-AAAAA 4-6 34.47 39.96 190 [74]
233 [27] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 34.34 30.67 296 [45]
234 [65] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 1-9 34.28 56.39 46 [4]
235 [21] Pinecrest Academy # 6-Div B-A 7-4 34.21 30.02 300 [15]
236 [28] Morgan County 8-AAA 4-6 34.14 41.54 169 [6]
237 [44] Southeast Whitfield # 7-AAAA 6-5 34.11 31.10 290 [62]
238 [54] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 2-8 33.99 59.09 36 [36]
239 [45] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 6-4 33.41 29.88 303 [63]
240 [22] Claxton # 3-Div A-A 7-4 33.35 29.65 307 [20]
241 [23] Lincoln County # 7-Div B-A 7-4 33.33 26.67 335 [29]
242 [27] Dublin # 3-AA 6-5 33.25 28.95 317 [32]
243 [46] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 5-5 33.16 34.27 250 [55]
244 [24] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 6-4 33.01 23.91 365 [41]
245 [47] Liberty County # 3-AAAA 4-7 32.57 39.74 194 [38]
246 [66] Shaw 1-AAAAA 4-6 32.48 36.05 229 [82]
247 [25] Schley County 4-A 6-4 32.43 27.85 324 [27]
248 [26] Greenville # 4-A 5-6 32.36 35.98 230 [2]
249 [29] East Hall # 7-AAA 6-5 32.34 31.47 286 [40]
250 [28] Seminole County 1-AA 4-6 32.33 36.36 225 [15]
251 [27] St. Francis # 6-Div B-A 7-4 32.22 23.09 373 [47]
252 [28] Atkinson County # 2-A 6-5 32.20 29.98 302 [17]
253 [29] Pelham 1-AA 4-6 32.07 38.80 206 [12]
254 [30] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 5-5 32.06 31.28 287 [41]
255 [48] Perry 2-AAAA 1-9 31.96 51.32 75 [7]
256 [29] Athens Christian # 8-A 7-4 31.90 17.91 397 [60]
257 [67] Northside (Columbus) # 1-AAAAA 4-7 31.85 38.73 207 [79]
258 [31] Central (Macon) # 2-AAA 5-6 31.56 32.20 278 [37]
259 [30] Swainsboro # 3-AA 5-6 31.32 33.46 263 [22]
260 [68] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-8 31.15 44.45 130 [51]
261 [32] Sonoraville # 6-AAA 6-5 31.06 26.11 341 [55]
262 [30] First Presbyterian # 7-Div A-A 7-4 30.97 26.08 342 [32]
263 [33] Jackson County 8-AAA 2-8 30.92 44.68 128 [2]
264 [34] Westside (Augusta) # 3-AAA 4-6-1 30.77 35.30 239 [24]
265 [55] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 3-7 30.48 42.13 161 [56]
266 [49] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 4-6 30.39 36.28 226 [47]
267 [69] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 29.96 42.44 158 [63]
268 [50] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 29.75 35.00 243 [52]
269 [31] Christian Heritage # 6-Div A-A 5-6 29.59 33.62 261 [7]
270 [31] Monticello # 4-AA 4-7 29.28 32.31 276 [24]
271 [32] Bryan County # 2-AA 5-6 29.21 33.78 257 [20]
272 [35] Lumpkin County # 7-AAA 5-6 29.17 30.92 293 [44]
273 [51] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-7 29.16 40.12 187 [36]
274 [36] Cedartown # 5-AAA 3-8 28.71 40.57 180 [8]
275 [70] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-8 28.54 51.69 73 [17]
276 [32] Brookstone 4-A 4-6 28.32 35.53 235 [3]
277 [33] Telfair County 2-A 6-4 27.94 25.77 344 [33]
278 [71] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-8 27.90 42.21 159 [64]
279 [56] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 3-7 27.80 44.56 129 [52]
280 [34] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 5-5 27.61 22.52 378 [50]
281 [72] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 26.47 41.30 175 [69]
282 [52] North Hall 8-AAAA 2-8 26.43 50.02 83 [9]
283 [33] Bremen # 5-AA 6-5 26.38 26.05 343 [41]
284 [37] Kendrick 2-AAA 5-5 26.04 27.74 325 [49]
285 [38] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 25.95 28.88 318 [47]
286 [35] Calhoun County ### 1-A 8-3 25.74 16.88 401 [64]
287 [73] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 1-9 25.57 43.35 146 [59]
288 [34] Groves 2-AA 6-4 25.45 18.00 396 [53]
289 [36] Wilcox County 2-A 3-7 25.17 35.28 240 [4]
290 [35] Metter 3-AA 4-6 25.08 27.41 328 [36]
291 [57] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-8 25.04 47.88 106 [51]
292 [39] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 24.76 36.54 221 [18]
293 [40] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 24.68 39.01 200 [13]
294 [53] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 1-9 24.16 45.38 119 [19]
295 [74] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 24.08 33.75 258 [85]
296 [41] Banks County 7-AAA 5-5 23.94 23.37 370 [65]
297 [75] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-10 23.93 57.34 42 [2]
298 [36] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 23.85 39.05 199 [10]
299 [37] Jenkins County # 3-Div A-A 7-4 23.74 18.77 394 [58]
300 [37] Greene County # 8-AA 5-6 23.69 24.95 354 [42]
301 [38] Hapeville 6-AA 4-6 23.54 31.92 282 [25]
302 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 23.52 34.98 245 [53]
303 [38] Turner County 2-A 4-6 23.11 29.19 314 [25]
304 [42] North Murray 6-AAA 5-5 22.96 19.99 390 [69]
305 [58] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 3-7 22.94 37.31 218 [63]
306 [39] Trion 6-Div A-A 5-5 22.92 23.06 374 [48]
307 [55] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 3-7 22.55 32.02 280 [61]
308 [76] Cedar Shoals # 8-AAAAA 0-10 22.46 44.84 126 [49]
309 [43] Franklin County 7-AAA 4-7 22.46 33.00 270 [31]
310 [44] Pepperell 5-AAA 3-7 22.23 32.57 273 [33]
311 [77] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-9 22.22 52.13 71 [16]
312 [59] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 1-9 22.08 42.56 157 [55]
313 [78] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-10 21.74 48.82 93 [30]
314 [79] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-10 21.69 57.62 40 [1]
315 [40] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-7 21.48 29.24 311 [22]
316 [45] Dawson County 7-AAA 2-8 21.23 31.17 288 [42]
317 [46] Rutland 2-AAA 3-7 21.14 31.08 291 [43]
318 [41] Mitchell County # 1-A 6-5 21.08 18.22 395 [59]
319 [47] Rockmart # 5-AAA 3-8 21.05 34.26 251 [28]
320 [80] Columbus 1-AAAAA 3-7 20.97 34.38 249 [84]
321 [48] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-6 20.80 26.32 337 [52]
322 [42] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 4-6 20.69 23.51 368 [43]
323 [43] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 4-6 20.55 25.28 347 [34]
324 [39] Jeff Davis 2-AA 4-6 20.26 26.83 332 [39]
325 [60] Habersham Central # 6-AAAAAA 1-9 20.05 40.67 179 [60]
326 [40] Chattooga 7-AA 4-7 20.05 24.95 353 [43]
327 [44] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 4-6 19.93 26.35 336 [30]
328 [41] Northeast 4-AA 3-7 19.87 30.46 297 [27]
329 [81] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-8 19.78 40.82 178 [70]
330 [45] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 4-6 19.41 25.22 348 [35]
331 [42] Chattahoochee County # 5-AA 6-5 18.91 16.10 404 [54]
332 [49] Jordan 2-AAA 3-7 18.88 27.49 327 [50]
333 [50] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 18.82 32.48 274 [34]
334 [61] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 2-7 18.44 33.00 271 [64]
335 [46] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-6 18.00 23.45 369 [44]
336 [56] Chestatee 8-AAAA 1-9 17.93 42.76 155 [31]
337 [51] Southwest 2-AAA 3-7 17.82 32.22 277 [35]
338 [62] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-9 17.15 43.06 149 [54]
339 [52] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 16.95 24.54 356 [60]
340 [53] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 16.71 23.95 364 [64]
341 [54] Hephzibah # 3-AAA 6-5 16.70 16.50 402 [70]
342 [57] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-8 16.57 28.98 316 [65]
343 [82] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 16.56 45.99 114 [42]
344 [43] Long County 2-AA 3-7 16.56 28.26 321 [34]
345 [63] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-10 16.54 54.27 62 [47]
346 [58] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 16.23 35.33 238 [50]
347 [59] Redan 6-AAAA 2-8 16.17 37.23 219 [43]
348 [47] George Walton Academy 8-A 5-5 16.07 17.19 398 [61]
349 [48] Portal 3-Div A-A 3-7 15.93 26.31 338 [31]
350 [83] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 15.70 43.41 144 [57]
351 [60] Chamblee 6-AAAA 1-9 14.79 39.33 196 [39]
353 [49] Walker 6-Div A-A 2-8 14.01 29.99 301 [16]
352 [61] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 2-7 14.01 29.87 304 [64]
354 [44] Manchester 5-AA 3-7 13.93 23.74 367 [46]
355 [50] Taylor County 4-A 1-8-1 13.61 31.98 281 [10]
356 [45] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 3-7 13.53 20.60 385 [50]
357 [55] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-8 13.50 40.06 188 [10]
358 [62] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 1-8 13.06 34.14 253 [56]
359 [51] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 5-5 12.96 10.17 410 [69]
360 [63] LaFayette 7-AAAA 2-8 12.88 33.17 268 [58]
361 [52] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 4-6 12.84 23.86 366 [42]
362 [53] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 3-7 12.53 26.83 333 [28]
363 [56] Spencer 2-AAA 1-9 12.44 35.01 242 [25]
364 [46] Dade County 7-AA 2-8 11.96 27.02 331 [38]
365 [54] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-9 11.67 29.23 312 [23]
366 [55] Athens Academy 8-A 4-5 11.63 11.37 409 [68]
367 [57] Butler 3-AAA 3-6 11.43 20.14 389 [68]
368 [58] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 10.89 25.30 346 [57]
369 [56] Terrell County 1-A 3-6 10.71 22.02 380 [52]
370 [47] Gordon Lee 7-AA 3-7 10.63 21.11 383 [49]
371 [57] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 3-7 9.99 22.90 375 [49]
372 [48] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-9 9.69 34.17 252 [18]
373 [59] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 2-8 8.63 29.48 309 [46]
374 [49] Putnam County 4-AA 2-8 8.41 30.13 299 [29]
375 [58] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-8 7.69 31.50 285 [11]
376 [60] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 7.56 22.01 381 [67]
377 [50] East Laurens 3-AA 2-7-1 7.49 20.58 386 [51]
378 [59] Lanier County 2-A 1-9 6.70 29.66 306 [19]
379 [61] Josey 3-AAA 2-8 6.37 24.00 363 [63]
380 [84] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-10 5.84 38.90 202 [78]
381 [62] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 1-9 5.17 37.95 214 [16]
382 [51] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-10 4.67 38.90 203 [11]
383 [52] Crawford County 4-AA† 6-4 4.44 -1.48 417 [57]
384 [60] Lakeview Academy 8-A 3-7 4.24 17.12 399 [62]
385 [63] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 4.15 35.83 231 [21]
386 [61] Miller County 1-A 2-8 4.15 25.09 351 [37]
387 [62] Randolph-Clay 1-A 3-7 3.56 12.98 408 [67]
388 [64] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 3-7 3.39 24.22 359 [61]
389 [65] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-9 2.71 31.70 284 [39]
390 [64] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 1-9 2.41 61.96 28 [28]
391 [63] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 1-9 1.77 24.08 361 [40]
392 [53] Harlem 3-AA 2-8 1.76 24.64 355 [44]
393 [64] Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-8 1.64 18.96 392 [56]
394 [65] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 1-9 1.56 24.45 358 [39]
395 [66] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 2-8 0.81 25.00 352 [59]
396 [67] Murray County 6-AAA 2-8 -0.40 26.29 339 [53]
397 [66] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 5-5 -1.59 -1.20 416 [73]
398 [64] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-9 -1.62 38.46 210 [41]
399 [68] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-9 -3.57 25.51 345 [56]
400 [54] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-8 -3.96 33.68 260 [21]
401 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-10 -5.91 44.91 122 [20]
402 [67] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -5.97 16.93 400 [63]
403 [55] Temple 5-AA 2-8 -6.06 15.99 406 [56]
404 [56] Armuchee 7-AA 1-9 -6.40 21.24 382 [48]
405 [68] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 1-9 -6.41 20.23 388 [55]
406 [69] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 2-8 -9.53 9.76 411 [70]
407 [66] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 2-8 -11.57 7.90 412 [67]
408 [69] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -11.80 25.21 349 [58]
409 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-10 -12.49 27.87 323 [66]
410 [57] Social Circle 8-AA 0-10 -12.62 16.00 405 [55]
411 [70] Baconton 1-A 1-9 -13.70 16.23 403 [65]
412 [71] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-9 -16.92 1.93 414 [72]
413 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 1-4 -21.86 -1.19 415 [68]
414 [72] Stewart County 1-A† 0-10 -22.46 7.74 413 [71]
415 [70] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-10 -23.27 24.04 362 [62]
416 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-10 -23.86 20.45 387 [54]
417 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-10 -25.63 34.40 248 [83]
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 98.51 80.64
2 8 - AAAAAA 87.14 67.59
3 7 - AAAAAA 82.57 62.44
4 2 - AAAAAA 82.46 56.59
5 4 - AAAAAA 78.99 63.67
6 5 - AAAAAA 78.88 61.37
7 5 - AAAA 75.28 58.83
8 5 - AAAAA 74.06 55.79
9 3 - AAAAAA 73.25 53.06
10 2 - AAAAA 72.11 52.14
11 8 - AAA 71.56 46.84
12 3 - AAAAA 69.06 47.32
13 8 - AAAA 66.61 42.55
14 6 - AAAAA 66.26 47.58
6 - Div B - AAAAA 74.73 55.78
6 - Div A - AAAAA 57.48 42.16
15 2 - AAAA 64.52 47.89
16 6 - AA 63.17 37.34
17 6 - AAAA 62.79 39.53
18 2 - AA 62.49 31.15
19 1 - AA 62.26 44.00
20 7 - AAAAA 62.09 43.30
7 - Div A - AAAAA 62.35 43.38
7 - Div B - AAAAA 61.83 43.22
21 4 - AAAAA 61.38 43.85
4 - Div B - AAAAA 62.64 45.60
4 - Div A - AAAAA 60.30 41.98
22 4 - AAA 60.66 32.28
4 - Div B - AAA 73.11 39.15
4 - Div A - AAA 48.63 27.38
23 8 - AAAAA 59.27 40.98
24 7 - AAAA 58.30 37.99
25 6 - AAAAAA 57.85 38.25
26 1 - AAAA 57.44 39.55
1 - Div A - AAAA 58.72 40.40
1 - Div B - AAAA 56.19 38.72
27 1 - AAAAA 56.96 35.91
28 1 - AAA 54.65 30.29
1 - Div A - AAA 62.68 43.81
1 - Div B - AAA 36.80 13.90
29 6 - AAA 54.32 20.76
30 3 - AAA 54.28 22.95
31 4 - A 54.19 34.84
32 2 - AAA 52.95 30.02
33 3 - AAAA 52.70 37.02
34 5 - AAA 52.63 29.18
35 4 - AAAA 50.95 32.50
4 - Div B - AAAA 52.80 31.56
4 - Div A - AAAA 49.60 33.37
36 2 - A 50.11 31.58
37 5 - A 49.35 28.36
38 4 - AA 49.15 32.47
39 6 - A 47.75 29.34
6 - Div A - A 51.37 32.16
6 - Div B - A 45.05 27.28
40 3 - A 45.63 24.17
3 - Div A - A 52.47 32.12
3 - Div B - A 34.50 13.15
41 7 - AAA 43.62 27.45
42 3 - AA 43.05 25.92
43 7 - A 42.43 24.12
7 - Div A - A 43.30 25.61
7 - Div B - A 41.16 21.98
44 8 - AA 41.66 20.92
45 5 - AA 41.27 22.58
46 7 - AA 41.11 21.65
47 8 - A 36.60 14.58
48 1 - A 24.53 8.97

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
10/10 Mount Pisgah Christian Fellowship Christian 28 - 33 25.19 92.5% 0.135
09/26 Stockbridge Luella 6 - 7 24.33 91.9% 0.161
09/05 Cook Berrien 14 - 21 21.23 89.3% 0.168
08/29 Macon County Americus-Sumter 23 - 28 21.35 89.4% 0.174
09/26 Pickens Ridgeland 28 - 35 18.96 86.9% 0.195
09/26 Central (Macon) Spencer 21 - 27 18.34 86.2% 0.207
08/23 Mount Pisgah Christian Brookstone 34 - 42 17.56 85.3% 0.210
08/22 Athens Christian Strong Rock Christian 7 - 8 19.84 87.9% 0.213
09/26 Westside (Augusta) Butler 27 - 29 18.56 86.5% 0.224
08/22 Fayette County McIntosh 25 - 28 17.35 85.0% 0.235
10/23 Cairo Monroe 14 - 21 15.93 83.1% 0.237
10/24 Hillgrove Harrison 42 - 43 17.14 84.7% 0.249
10/03 Walton Pope 36 - 44 14.45 80.9% 0.255
08/23 Tucker Norcross 29 - 32 15.86 83.0% 0.256
09/05 Westlake Shiloh 7 - 14 14.40 80.8% 0.260

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.02 11/21 Tucker Grayson 26 - 23 1.98 54.9%
86.25 11/21 Colquitt County Dacula 51 - 30 20.76 88.9%
85.64 09/12 Grayson Archer 14 - 10 0.94 52.3%
85.63 10/24 Grayson Dacula 17 - 27 0.95 52.4%
84.78 10/31 Archer Dacula 24 - 10 0.79 52.0%
82.65 11/14 Grayson Mill Creek 24 - 6 5.48 63.4%
82.63 09/05 Buford McEachern 27 - 20 11.48 75.9%
82.56 11/21 Archer Lee County 56 - 13 4.33 60.7%
82.44 11/28 Tucker McEachern - 8.13 69.3%
82.29 10/10 Colquitt County Lee County 58 - 14 24.31 91.9%
82.17 09/05 Dacula Mill Creek 28 - 21 3.75 59.3%
81.82 11/28 Colquitt County Milton - 24.73 92.2%
81.67 08/23 Colquitt County Mill Creek 31 - 14 24.52 92.1%
81.01 10/17 Colquitt County Valdosta 48 - 20 24.76 92.2%
80.05 11/07 Lee County Valdosta 21 - 22 2.80 56.9%

About the Author

Todd Holcomb

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