Sports

Maxwell Quarterfinal Summary: Parity defines the postseason

By Loren Maxwell
Nov 27, 2017

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Benedictine and Manchester became the latest favorites to fall, joining Lowndes and Cartersville as teams that were once pegged to take home the title but are no longer playing. They also leave their respective brackets wide open as parity has come to define the last two rounds after favorites dominated Round One.

- Eagle's Landing Christian is the only remaining heavy favorite, although Buford, Marist, and Greater Atlanta Christian have just slightly better than a 50% chance of winning out.

- Two great matchups this weekend as Buford takes on Rome in a rematch of last year's Class AAAAA title game and Colquitt County visits Brookwood in an effort to avenge a mid-season loss and advance to the title game for the third time in four years.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.08%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,067 of 2,246 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.03%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.87 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.04

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Lowndes 11-1 89.63 1 Lee County 12-1 76.25
2 North Gwinnett 12-1 87.84 2 Tucker 12-1 74.59
3 Grayson 10-2 85.66 3 Coffee 9-3 74.56
4 Brookwood 11-2 85.37 4 Glynn Academy 9-3 72.00
5 Colquitt County 10-3 83.99 5 Mays 11-2 68.49
6 Archer 12-1 83.49 6 Brunswick 7-3 67.06
7 Tift County 11-2 83.32 7 Northside (Warner Robins) 8-4 67.05
8 Walton 11-1 82.95 8 Allatoona 9-4 61.87
9 McEachern 10-3 81.07 9 Valdosta 4-7 61.67
10 Parkview 9-4 75.76 10 Harrison 9-4 61.51
11 Hillgrove 8-4 74.89 11 Alpharetta 11-2 60.51
12 Mill Creek 8-4 74.24 12 Richmond Hill 7-3 60.38
13 Milton 9-3 72.78 13 Douglas County 10-2 58.50
14 South Forsyth 10-1 72.69 14 Effingham County 5-6 58.04
15 Norcross 5-6 70.01 15 Dacula 7-5 57.12
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 11-1 89.88 1 Marist 13-0 79.13
2 Rome 13-0 81.94 2 Cartersville 11-1 78.90
3 Warner Robins 13-0 76.40 3 Blessed Trinity 11-2 74.39
4 Stockbridge 12-1 76.20 4 Burke County 12-1 66.99
5 Jones County 11-2 68.59 5 Cedartown 10-2 63.04
6 Wayne County 9-2 63.14 6 Mary Persons 11-2 62.48
7 Starr's Mill 11-2 61.53 7 Ridgeland 11-1 61.63
8 Eagle's Landing 7-5 61.24 8 Thomson 10-2 61.60
9 Carver (Atlanta) 12-1 60.07 9 St. Pius X 8-5 61.49
10 Dutchtown 7-4 58.84 10 Jefferson 10-3 58.96
11 Carrollton 10-3 57.22 11 Troup 9-3 58.78
12 Bainbridge 8-4 57.08 12 Woodward Academy 11-2 53.73
13 Ware County 5-6 56.46 13 Americus-Sumter 9-3 52.59
14 Flowery Branch 9-3 55.57 14 White County 7-4 50.21
15 Griffin 9-2 52.41 15 Sandy Creek 5-5 48.98
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 12-1 80.59 1 Rabun County 13-0 83.22
2 Cedar Grove 13-0 72.95 2 Hapeville Charter 12-1 81.78
3 Peach County 12-1 72.07 3 Benedictine 12-1 75.78
4 Calhoun 12-1 63.36 4 Brooks County 11-1 67.09
5 Lovett 7-5 53.62 5 Screven County 11-1 66.73
6 Crisp County 9-2 53.56 6 Heard County 12-1 63.70
7 Jenkins 12-1 50.02 7 Thomasville 12-1 62.19
8 Westminster (Atlanta) 7-6 48.24 8 Dodge County 10-1 56.73
9 Pace Academy 5-5 47.72 9 Toombs County 10-2 56.56
10 Pike County 9-4 46.78 10 Callaway 11-2 54.22
11 Monroe Area 10-2 46.07 11 Jefferson County 10-2 52.85
12 Liberty County 9-4 45.55 12 Fitzgerald 4-7 48.91
13 Dawson County 8-4 43.94 13 Vidalia 5-5 47.71
14 Westside (Macon) 8-4 43.48 14 Rockmart 9-3 47.60
15 Bremen 9-2 42.53 15 Swainsboro 6-4 45.40
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Irwin County 11-1 52.00 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 12-0 72.76
2 Clinch County 10-2 50.88 2 Athens Academy 12-0 56.94
3 Emanuel County Institute 11-1 46.59 3 Mount Paran Christian 11-1 49.02
4 Manchester 11-1 45.41 4 Prince Avenue Christian 11-1 44.58
5 Macon County 8-4 43.77 5 Wesleyan 8-3 43.20
6 Mount Zion (Carroll) 10-2 40.82 6 Calvary Day 10-3 42.29
7 Charlton County 9-3 37.74 7 Stratford Academy 10-2 40.39
8 Lincoln County 7-5 35.12 8 Mount Pisgah Christian 8-3 36.38
9 Dooly County 5-7 33.00 9 Savannah Country Day 10-3 35.57
10 Marion County 9-3 32.86 10 Darlington 8-5 35.02
11 Commerce 8-3 30.96 11 Aquinas 7-4 33.57
12 Washington-Wilkes 7-5 30.94 12 Whitefield Academy 8-4 29.98
13 Schley County 8-4 30.08 13 Savannah Christian 6-5 29.53
14 Taylor County 8-3 29.82 14 First Presbyterian 8-4 28.94
15 Mitchell County 10-2 29.51 15 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 7-5 27.92

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Buford 8 - AAAAA 11-1 89.88 43.47 132
2 [1] Lowndes 1 - AAAAAAA 11-1 89.63 62.34 19
3 [2] North Gwinnett 6 - AAAAAAA 12-1 87.84 63.86 15
4 [3] Grayson 8 - AAAAAAA 10-2 85.66 66.00 12
5 [4] Brookwood 7 - AAAAAAA 11-2 85.37 64.37 14
6 [5] Colquitt County 1 - AAAAAAA 10-3 83.99 73.06 1
7 [6] Archer 8 - AAAAAAA 12-1 83.49 63.39 18
8 [7] Tift County 1 - AAAAAAA 11-2 83.32 66.23 11
9 [1] Rabun County 8 - AA 13-0 83.22 26.57 303
10 [8] Walton 4 - AAAAAAA 11-1 82.95 60.37 26
11 [2] Rome 7 - AAAAA 13-0 81.94 44.96 116
12 [2] Hapeville Charter 6 - AA 12-1 81.78 35.30 218
13 [9] McEachern 3 - AAAAAAA 10-3 81.07 66.38 10
14 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 - AAA 12-1 80.59 37.67 188
15 [1] Marist 7 - AAAA 13-0 79.13 49.91 76
16 [2] Cartersville 5 - AAAA 11-1 78.90 52.07 59
17 [3] Warner Robins 1 - AAAAA 13-0 76.40 50.87 68
18 [1] Lee County 1 - AAAAAA 12-1 76.25 53.79 47
19 [4] Stockbridge 4 - AAAAA 12-1 76.20 52.12 58
20 [3] Benedictine 2 - AA 12-1 75.78 46.27 103
21 [10] Parkview 7 - AAAAAAA 9-4 75.76 61.03 23
22 [11] Hillgrove 3 - AAAAAAA 8-4 74.89 67.05 9
23 [2] Tucker 4 - AAAAAA 12-1 74.59 40.40 164
24 [3] Coffee 1 - AAAAAA 9-3 74.56 63.64 16
25 [3] Blessed Trinity 7 - AAAA 11-2 74.39 53.69 48
26 [12] Mill Creek 6 - AAAAAAA 8-4 74.24 61.82 21
27 [2] Cedar Grove 5 - AAA 13-0 72.95 35.86 207
28 [13] Milton 5 - AAAAAAA 9-3 72.78 58.04 32
29 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5 - A 12-0 72.76 29.27 279
30 [14] South Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 10-1 72.69 52.82 52
31 [3] Peach County 4 - AAA 12-1 72.07 36.54 201
32 [4] Glynn Academy 2 - AAAAAA 9-3 72.00 61.19 22
33 [15] Norcross 7 - AAAAAAA 5-6 70.01 68.48 5
34 [16] North Paulding 3 - AAAAAAA 8-3 69.61 56.84 35
35 [17] Mountain View 6 - AAAAAAA 9-3 69.22 44.27 126
36 [5] Jones County 4 - AAAAA 11-2 68.59 51.04 66
37 [5] Mays 5 - AAAAAA 11-2 68.49 48.16 87
38 [18] Newton 8 - AAAAAAA 7-4 68.03 54.64 38
39 [4] Brooks County 1 - AA 11-1 67.09 44.07 129
40 [6] Brunswick 2 - AAAAAA 7-3 67.06 53.81 46
41 [7] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 - AAAAAA 8-4 67.05 58.61 30
42 [4] Burke County 3 - AAAA 12-1 66.99 40.47 162
43 [19] Marietta 3 - AAAAAAA 8-5 66.92 63.40 17
44 [5] Screven County 4 - AA 11-1 66.73 27.01 298
45 [20] Woodstock 4 - AAAAAAA 7-5 64.22 59.81 28
46 [6] Heard County 5 - AA 12-1 63.70 33.39 242
47 [21] North Cobb 3 - AAAAAAA 6-5 63.37 62.11 20
48 [4] Calhoun 6 - AAA 12-1 63.36 34.48 225
49 [6] Wayne County 2 - AAAAA 9-2 63.14 45.74 108
50 [5] Cedartown 5 - AAAA 10-2 63.04 44.44 122
51 [22] West Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 7-4 62.79 58.12 31
52 [6] Mary Persons 2 - AAAA 11-2 62.48 41.18 152
53 [7] Thomasville 1 - AA 12-1 62.19 38.90 181
54 [8] Allatoona 6 - AAAAAA 9-4 61.87 53.02 51
55 [9] Valdosta 1 - AAAAAA 4-7 61.67 68.49 4
56 [7] Ridgeland 6 - AAAA 11-1 61.63 33.57 238
57 [23] Lassiter 4 - AAAAAAA 6-4 61.63 55.78 37
58 [8] Thomson 3 - AAAA 10-2 61.60 37.08 197
59 [7] Starr's Mill 3 - AAAAA 11-2 61.53 46.36 102
60 [10] Harrison 6 - AAAAAA 9-4 61.51 52.23 57
61 [9] St. Pius X 8 - AAAA 8-5 61.49 54.53 39
62 [8] Eagle's Landing 4 - AAAAA 7-5 61.24 54.27 41
63 [24] Etowah 4 - AAAAAAA 5-6 60.84 60.92 24
64 [11] Alpharetta 7 - AAAAAA 11-2 60.51 41.42 148
65 [12] Richmond Hill 2 - AAAAAA 7-3 60.38 49.02 81
66 [9] Carver (Atlanta) 6 - AAAAA 12-1 60.07 35.78 209
67 [10] Jefferson 8 - AAAA 10-3 58.96 45.57 111
68 [10] Dutchtown 4 - AAAAA 7-4 58.84 50.61 72
69 [11] Troup 5 - AAAA 9-3 58.78 38.96 180
70 [25] Collins Hill 6 - AAAAAAA 6-5 58.67 54.04 45
71 [13] Douglas County 5 - AAAAAA 10-2 58.50 42.96 135
72 [14] Effingham County 2 - AAAAAA 5-6 58.04 59.04 29
73 [26] Westlake 2 - AAAAAAA 7-4 57.37 50.83 69
74 [27] Roswell 4 - AAAAAAA 3-8 57.33 68.90 3
75 [11] Carrollton 7 - AAAAA 10-3 57.22 45.57 110
76 [15] Dacula 8 - AAAAAA 7-5 57.12 48.94 82
77 [12] Bainbridge 1 - AAAAA 8-4 57.08 44.89 118
78 [28] Camden County 1 - AAAAAAA 3-7 56.99 72.50 2
79 [2] Athens Academy 8 - A 12-0 56.94 18.51 368
80 [8] Dodge County 3 - AA 10-1 56.73 37.18 194
81 [9] Toombs County 2 - AA 10-2 56.56 36.85 199
82 [13] Ware County 2 - AAAAA 5-6 56.46 60.26 27
83 [16] Evans 3 - AAAAAA 9-3 56.08 38.37 183
84 [14] Flowery Branch 8 - AAAAA 9-3 55.57 41.24 151
85 [10] Callaway 5 - AA 11-2 54.22 34.08 231
86 [17] Sequoyah 6 - AAAAAA 6-5 53.91 49.93 75
87 [12] Woodward Academy 4 - AAAA 11-2 53.73 31.70 260
88 [18] Dalton 6 - AAAAAA 7-4 53.71 47.47 94
89 [5] Lovett 5 - AAA 7-5 53.62 44.32 123
90 [29] South Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAAA 3-8 53.58 67.94 7
91 [30] Central Gwinnett 7 - AAAAAAA 5-5 53.58 56.68 36
92 [6] Crisp County 1 - AAA 9-2 53.56 33.53 240
93 [31] Pebblebrook 2 - AAAAAAA 6-5 53.20 46.78 100
94 [11] Jefferson County 4 - AA 10-2 52.85 26.42 304
95 [19] Hughes 5 - AAAAAA 7-4 52.65 45.44 112
96 [13] Americus-Sumter 1 - AAAA 9-3 52.59 39.62 171
97 [15] Griffin 3 - AAAAA 9-2 52.41 39.68 169
98 [20] Alexander 5 - AAAAAA 6-5 52.37 49.60 78
99 [21] Heritage (Conyers) 3 - AAAAAA 7-5 52.37 47.07 97
100 [32] Meadowcreek 7 - AAAAAAA 7-4 52.15 42.84 136
101 [1] Irwin County 2 - A 11-1 52.00 31.25 263
102 [22] Creekview 6 - AAAAAA 6-4 51.89 46.88 99
103 [23] Centennial 7 - AAAAAA 8-4 51.73 39.84 166
104 [16] Ola 4 - AAAAA 5-5 51.33 51.72 61
105 [2] Clinch County 2 - A 10-2 50.88 28.52 285
106 [17] Kell 7 - AAAAA 5-6 50.49 51.52 64
107 [14] White County 7 - AAAA 7-4 50.21 44.29 124
108 [7] Jenkins 3 - AAA 12-1 50.02 28.62 283
109 [33] Kennesaw Mountain 3 - AAAAAAA 4-6 49.90 56.92 34
110 [34] North Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 5-6 49.63 52.45 55
111 [24] Stephenson 4 - AAAAAA 7-4 49.57 43.21 133
112 [3] Mount Paran Christian 6 - A 11-1 49.02 25.48 313
113 [15] Sandy Creek 5 - AAAA 5-5 48.98 47.85 91
114 [12] Fitzgerald 1 - AA 4-7 48.91 54.07 44
115 [16] West Laurens 2 - AAAA 6-6 48.88 48.91 83
116 [18] Clarke Central 8 - AAAAA 7-4 48.78 39.75 168
117 [8] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 - AAA 7-6 48.24 45.58 109
118 [17] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 - AAAA 9-2 48.16 25.95 308
119 [25] Grovetown 3 - AAAAAA 7-5 47.91 44.58 121
120 [35] East Coweta 2 - AAAAAAA 5-5 47.77 46.26 104
121 [9] Pace Academy 5 - AAA 5-5 47.72 46.14 105
122 [13] Vidalia 2 - AA 5-5 47.71 48.22 85
123 [26] Northgate 5 - AAAAAA 6-4 47.67 44.72 120
124 [36] Campbell 2 - AAAAAAA 4-7 47.65 54.23 42
125 [14] Rockmart 7 - AA 9-3 47.60 21.02 347
126 [18] Cairo 1 - AAAA 8-4 47.59 41.02 153
127 [37] Newnan 2 - AAAAAAA 4-7 47.45 54.13 43
128 [19] East Paulding 7 - AAAAA 4-6 46.97 50.99 67
129 [27] Houston County 1 - AAAAAA 2-8 46.95 64.51 13
130 [10] Pike County 4 - AAA 9-4 46.78 33.01 245
131 [3] Emanuel County Institute 3 - A 11-1 46.59 20.55 351
132 [19] Chapel Hill 5 - AAAA 6-5 46.29 48.16 86
133 [20] Whitewater 3 - AAAAA 7-4 46.26 41.48 146
134 [11] Monroe Area 8 - AAA 10-2 46.07 24.53 323
135 [28] Lanier 8 - AAAAAA 6-5 45.72 45.77 107
136 [21] Paulding County 7 - AAAAA 5-6 45.66 50.79 70
137 [12] Liberty County 2 - AAA 9-4 45.55 34.59 224
138 [4] Manchester 4 - A 11-1 45.41 17.46 379
139 [15] Swainsboro 2 - AA 6-4 45.40 41.51 145
140 [29] Winder-Barrow 8 - AAAAAA 9-3 45.24 36.75 200
141 [22] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 - AAAAA 3-7 45.22 53.47 49
142 [23] Maynard Jackson 6 - AAAAA 9-3 45.13 32.13 257
143 [4] Prince Avenue Christian 8 - A 11-1 44.58 20.00 355
144 [30] Lovejoy 4 - AAAAAA 6-5 44.20 41.44 147
145 [24] Hiram 7 - AAAAA 4-6 44.13 45.25 113
146 [20] Baldwin 3 - AAAA 7-5 44.13 39.76 167
147 [21] West Hall 7 - AAAA 5-6 44.12 47.86 90
148 [25] Villa Rica 7 - AAAAA 5-5 44.09 42.57 139
149 [31] Bradwell Institute 2 - AAAAAA 6-4 43.95 42.74 137
150 [22] Eastside 4 - AAAA 8-3 43.95 30.66 269
151 [13] Dawson County 7 - AAA 8-4 43.94 33.12 244
152 [5] Macon County 4 - A 8-4 43.77 32.40 253
153 [26] Locust Grove 4 - AAAAA 3-7 43.49 53.29 50
154 [14] Westside (Macon) 4 - AAA 8-4 43.48 34.44 226
155 [5] Wesleyan 5 - A 8-3 43.20 28.55 284
156 [27] Arabia Mountain 5 - AAAAA 9-3 43.13 30.75 268
157 [23] Stephens County 8 - AAAA 5-5 43.02 42.72 138
158 [28] Banneker 6 - AAAAA 8-3 43.01 33.79 235
159 [29] Southwest DeKalb 5 - AAAAA 8-4 43.01 33.47 241
160 [24] Northside (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 8-3 42.85 32.08 258
161 [32] Gainesville 8 - AAAAAA 4-7 42.67 50.56 73
162 [25] Oconee County 8 - AAAA 5-6 42.60 43.67 130
163 [16] Bacon County 2 - AA 6-4 42.54 37.88 187
164 [15] Bremen 6 - AAA 9-2 42.53 25.65 312
165 [6] Calvary Day 3 - A 10-3 42.29 24.62 322
166 [17] Jeff Davis 2 - AA 5-5 41.95 39.00 178
167 [38] Lambert 5 - AAAAAAA 3-7 41.92 52.64 53
168 [18] Pepperell 7 - AA 8-4 41.78 27.07 297
169 [33] Tri-Cities 5 - AAAAAA 3-7 41.49 47.09 96
170 [16] Cook 1 - AAA 6-6 41.23 41.82 142
171 [26] Spalding 2 - AAAA 4-6 40.94 45.04 115
172 [6] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 - A 10-2 40.82 22.41 337
173 [19] Elbert County 8 - AA 9-3 40.52 20.96 348
174 [7] Stratford Academy 7 - A 10-2 40.39 22.96 334
175 [20] Washington County 3 - AA 4-7 40.03 47.52 92
176 [30] New Hampstead 2 - AAAAA 5-5 40.01 40.84 157
177 [21] Dublin 3 - AA 7-5 39.79 33.55 239
178 [39] Peachtree Ridge 6 - AAAAAAA 2-8 39.74 67.21 8
179 [27] Howard 2 - AAAA 6-5 39.51 37.34 192
180 [28] Perry 2 - AAAA 5-5 39.09 39.00 179
181 [17] Morgan County 8 - AAA 9-2 38.98 22.19 339
182 [34] Chattahoochee 7 - AAAAAA 7-4 38.90 36.03 206
183 [31] South Effingham 2 - AAAAA 1-10 38.29 57.83 33
184 [35] Cambridge 7 - AAAAAA 4-6 38.09 40.66 158
185 [29] Hardaway 1 - AAAA 4-6 37.90 40.88 156
186 [7] Charlton County 2 - A 9-3 37.74 25.79 311
187 [32] McIntosh 3 - AAAAA 6-5 37.69 34.13 229
188 [36] River Ridge 6 - AAAAAA 4-6 37.69 43.63 131
189 [22] Southwest 3 - AA 5-5 37.68 38.20 185
190 [30] Upson-Lee 2 - AAAA 4-6 37.60 40.43 163
191 [23] Bleckley County 3 - AA 6-4 37.54 27.76 293
192 [37] New Manchester 5 - AAAAAA 3-7 37.46 48.11 88
193 [33] Harris County 1 - AAAAA 5-6 37.45 39.64 170
194 [34] Cedar Shoals 8 - AAAAA 6-5 37.19 35.65 213
195 [38] Greenbrier 3 - AAAAAA 6-4 37.05 29.91 275
196 [35] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 - AAAAA 3-7 36.80 46.45 101
197 [31] Northwest Whitfield 6 - AAAA 6-5 36.69 32.27 254
198 [18] East Hall 7 - AAA 7-5 36.52 29.71 277
199 [8] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 - A 8-3 36.38 23.51 329
200 [32] Pickens 6 - AAAA 5-6 36.33 39.01 177
201 [19] Southeast Bulloch 3 - AAA 6-5 36.04 30.48 270
202 [36] Union Grove 4 - AAAAA 3-7 35.91 50.34 74
203 [37] Statesboro 2 - AAAAA 2-7 35.77 47.24 95
204 [40] Wheeler 2 - AAAAAAA 2-8 35.67 51.96 60
205 [39] South Cobb 6 - AAAAAA 2-8 35.63 49.22 80
206 [9] Savannah Country Day 3 - A 10-3 35.57 20.82 349
207 [40] Pope 7 - AAAAAA 4-7 35.55 44.08 128
208 [24] Douglass 6 - AA 7-4 35.38 24.70 320
209 [8] Lincoln County 7 - A 7-5 35.12 27.91 289
210 [38] Morrow 3 - AAAAA 5-5 35.11 37.11 196
211 [10] Darlington 6 - A 8-5 35.02 28.24 286
212 [39] Thomas County Central 1 - AAAAA 3-8 34.92 51.65 63
213 [41] Drew 4 - AAAAAA 4-7 34.77 44.18 127
214 [42] Lakeside (Evans) 3 - AAAAAA 2-9 34.58 52.58 54
215 [41] Shiloh 8 - AAAAAAA 1-9 34.47 68.15 6
216 [33] Chestatee 7 - AAAA 4-6 33.86 41.32 150
217 [11] Aquinas 7 - A 7-4 33.57 25.01 316
218 [40] North Springs 6 - AAAAA 6-5 33.03 28.90 281
219 [34] Madison County 8 - AAAA 4-7 33.01 40.58 160
220 [9] Dooly County 4 - A 5-7 33.00 33.99 232
221 [35] Carver (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 3-8 32.89 40.14 165
222 [10] Marion County 4 - A 9-3 32.86 20.51 352
223 [25] Spencer 5 - AA 5-6 32.72 36.46 203
224 [43] Sprayberry 6 - AAAAAA 2-8 32.57 47.86 89
225 [44] Jonesboro 4 - AAAAAA 3-7 32.51 44.85 119
226 [26] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 - AA 6-6 32.46 34.27 227
227 [41] Fayette County 3 - AAAAA 3-7 32.36 41.73 143
228 [42] Hampton 4 - AAAAA 1-9 32.30 51.68 62
229 [36] Central (Carrollton) 5 - AAAA 3-7 31.70 47.00 98
230 [45] Alcovy 3 - AAAAAA 3-7 31.67 39.11 176
231 [20] Pierce County 2 - AAA 5-6 31.67 35.32 217
232 [46] Johns Creek 7 - AAAAAA 3-7 31.65 40.65 159
233 [21] North Hall 7 - AAA 4-7 31.39 38.55 182
234 [47] Habersham Central 8 - AAAAAA 2-8 31.17 39.40 173
235 [11] Commerce 8 - A 8-3 30.96 17.72 376
236 [12] Washington-Wilkes 7 - A 7-5 30.94 27.66 294
237 [22] North Murray 6 - AAA 7-4 30.83 21.58 341
238 [48] M.L. King 4 - AAAAAA 4-6 30.54 35.34 216
239 [23] Hart County 8 - AAA 3-8 30.52 40.94 155
240 [27] Berrien 1 - AA 4-7 30.40 42.21 141
241 [28] Coosa 7 - AA 7-4 30.24 19.79 359
242 [24] Adairsville 6 - AAA 6-5 30.08 27.94 288
243 [13] Schley County 4 - A 8-4 30.08 20.24 354
244 [43] Loganville 8 - AAAAA 2-8 30.08 44.27 125
245 [25] Jackson 4 - AAA 5-6 30.05 33.87 233
246 [37] Salem 4 - AAAA 6-5 30.00 25.89 309
247 [12] Whitefield Academy 6 - A 8-4 29.98 24.50 324
248 [29] Northeast 3 - AA 5-4 29.83 26.94 299
249 [14] Taylor County 4 - A 8-3 29.82 7.01 400
250 [44] Columbia 5 - AAAAA 5-6 29.81 32.15 256
251 [42] Rockdale County 8 - AAAAAAA 1-9 29.55 51.09 65
252 [13] Savannah Christian 3 - A 6-5 29.53 28.23 287
253 [15] Mitchell County 1 - A 10-2 29.51 4.01 404
254 [38] Richmond Academy 3 - AAAA 5-6 29.50 36.38 205
255 [16] Trion 6 - A 7-4 29.27 19.33 362
256 [39] Southeast Whitfield 6 - AAAA 7-3 29.09 11.47 396
257 [14] First Presbyterian 7 - A 8-4 28.94 19.26 365
258 [43] Duluth 6 - AAAAAAA 3-7 28.71 45.95 106
259 [17] Telfair County 2 - A 4-7 28.40 32.41 252
260 [15] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 - A 7-5 27.92 26.40 305
261 [26] Monroe 1 - AAA 3-7 27.84 36.98 198
262 [40] Westover 1 - AAAA 4-6 27.72 32.19 255
263 [44] Forsyth Central 5 - AAAAAAA 0-10 27.71 50.78 71
264 [45] Veterans 1 - AAAAA 2-8 27.67 42.54 140
265 [27] Tattnall County 2 - AAA 4-6 27.60 30.38 271
266 [30] South Atlanta 6 - AA 5-6 27.60 31.51 261
267 [28] Ringgold 6 - AAA 5-5 27.45 23.96 326
268 [29] Towers 5 - AAA 4-6 27.17 34.59 223
269 [49] Northview 7 - AAAAAA 2-8 27.01 39.13 175
270 [41] North Oconee 8 - AAAA 1-9 27.00 45.18 114
271 [16] Fellowship Christian 6 - A 7-5 26.78 19.85 358
272 [17] Tattnall Square 7 - A 7-4 26.70 17.30 380
273 [18] Turner County 2 - A 6-5 26.46 26.61 302
274 [31] Harlem 4 - AA 7-4 26.35 17.11 384
275 [46] Decatur 6 - AAAAA 4-6 26.08 32.58 250
276 [42] Columbus 1 - AAAA 3-7 26.04 37.13 195
277 [32] Metter 2 - AA 3-7 25.84 40.51 161
278 [19] Jenkins County 3 - A 8-4 25.74 17.99 371
279 [33] Temple 5 - AA 6-5 25.51 19.90 357
280 [30] Jackson County 8 - AAA 5-6 25.42 30.85 265
281 [31] Appling County 2 - AAA 3-6 25.28 35.47 215
282 [47] Riverwood 6 - AAAAA 2-8 25.27 37.56 190
283 [18] Our Lady of Mercy 5 - A 6-5 25.02 26.13 307
284 [45] Cherokee 4 - AAAAAAA 0-10 25.00 60.53 25
285 [48] Lithonia 5 - AAAAA 3-7 24.29 34.93 221
286 [50] North Atlanta 7 - AAAAAA 3-7 24.06 33.71 237
287 [32] Savannah 3 - AAA 6-5 23.81 21.45 342
288 [49] Miller Grove 5 - AAAAA 5-6 23.80 25.09 314
289 [33] Sonoraville 6 - AAA 4-6 23.66 27.86 290
290 [50] Grady 6 - AAAAA 2-7 23.42 35.76 210
291 [34] Windsor Forest 3 - AAA 7-4 23.30 17.15 382
292 [51] Dunwoody 7 - AAAAAA 3-7 22.80 32.86 247
293 [52] South Paulding 5 - AAAAAA 1-9 22.43 49.57 79
294 [34] Jordan 5 - AA 2-8 22.09 35.86 208
295 [19] George Walton Academy 8 - A 7-4 22.01 15.94 390
296 [35] Union County 7 - AAA 6-4 22.01 23.33 331
297 [20] Montgomery County 3 - A 6-5 21.88 17.82 373
298 [35] Chattooga 7 - AA 4-7 21.80 30.78 267
299 [51] Riverdale 3 - AAAAA 1-9 21.68 39.57 172
300 [52] Cass 7 - AAAAA 0-10 21.55 44.89 117
301 [43] North Clayton 4 - AAAA 4-7 21.53 30.12 274
302 [20] Mount de Sales 7 - A 6-5 21.49 17.92 372
303 [36] Beach 3 - AAA 5-4 21.39 17.76 374
304 [21] Pelham 1 - A 9-3 21.20 3.53 407
305 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 - A 6-5 20.80 15.69 391
306 [36] Washington 6 - AA 3-7 20.74 32.72 249
307 [22] Walker 6 - A 5-6 20.71 25.07 315
308 [53] Walnut Grove 8 - AAAAA 2-8 20.67 41.00 154
309 [37] Redan 5 - AAA 3-7 20.63 38.11 186
310 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 - AAAAAAA 2-8 20.42 49.84 77
311 [53] Mundy's Mill 4 - AAAAAA 2-8 20.24 37.32 193
312 [37] Therrell 6 - AA 3-7 20.18 31.97 259
313 [23] Strong Rock Christian 5 - A 5-6 20.15 23.22 332
314 [38] Central (Macon) 4 - AAA 2-7 20.12 35.14 219
315 [44] Hephzibah 3 - AAAA 4-6 19.84 24.17 325
316 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 - AAAAAA 1-9 19.38 41.37 149
317 [38] Glenn Hills 4 - AA 5-5 19.36 21.92 340
318 [39] Dougherty 1 - AAA 2-9 19.24 32.85 248
319 [45] LaGrange 5 - AAAA 0-10 18.63 52.28 56
320 [22] McIntosh County Academy 3 - A 3-6 18.13 24.78 318
321 [24] Brookstone 4 - A 5-6 17.89 19.27 363
322 [39] Early County 1 - AA 2-8 17.82 43.09 134
323 [40] Franklin County 8 - AAA 2-8 17.66 35.01 220
324 [40] Lamar County 5 - AA 1-9 17.26 37.59 189
325 [46] Henry County 4 - AAAA 3-7 17.12 30.91 264
326 [55] Creekside 5 - AAAAAA 0-10 16.41 47.51 93
327 [54] Lithia Springs 6 - AAAAA 1-9 16.37 37.55 191
328 [23] Claxton 3 - A 3-7 16.14 25.85 310
329 [41] Butler 4 - AA 4-7 15.58 24.63 321
330 [42] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 - AA 2-7 15.35 27.85 291
331 [41] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 - AAA 5-5 15.12 15.40 392
332 [43] Laney 4 - AA 3-7 14.55 33.25 243
333 [56] Apalachee 8 - AAAAAA 1-9 14.25 38.29 184
334 [25] Holy Innocents 5 - A 3-7 14.19 27.20 295
335 [47] Shaw 1 - AAAA 1-9 14.04 35.75 211
336 [24] Chattahoochee County 1 - A 7-4 13.83 3.11 408
337 [26] North Cobb Christian 6 - A 4-6 13.61 19.27 364
338 [44] Banks County 8 - AA 5-6 13.30 17.23 381
339 [47] Discovery 6 - AAAAAAA 1-9 13.05 48.25 84
340 [57] Forest Park 4 - AAAAAA† 2-8 12.33 32.91 246
341 [25] Towns County 8 - A 5-6 12.29 19.36 361
342 [42] Brantley County 2 - AAA 1-8 11.72 29.22 280
343 [27] St. Francis 6 - A 4-6 11.20 17.60 378
344 [26] Johnson County 3 - A 5-5 11.07 12.94 395
345 [28] Athens Christian 8 - A 4-6 10.96 16.25 388
346 [27] Atkinson County 2 - A 2-8 10.95 32.54 251
347 [28] Wilcox County 2 - A 2-8 10.71 27.81 292
348 [29] Miller County 1 - A 7-4 10.67 -0.87 412
349 [43] Lumpkin County 7 - AAA 1-9 10.62 34.86 222
350 [44] McNair 5 - AAA 3-7 9.75 26.80 300
351 [45] Dade County 7 - AA 4-6 9.73 18.11 370
352 [48] Luella 4 - AAAA 1-9 9.70 33.84 234
353 [46] Bryan County 2 - AA 0-9 8.69 41.64 144
354 [45] Murray County 6 - AAA 3-7 8.57 23.18 333
355 [49] Cross Creek 3 - AAAA 2-8 7.89 31.28 262
356 [30] Wilkinson County 7 - A 3-7 7.83 21.06 346
357 [46] Kendrick 4 - AAA 1-9 7.56 36.49 202
358 [47] Islands 3 - AAA 3-7 7.33 23.34 330
359 [31] Seminole County 1 - A 5-5 5.32 -0.17 411
360 [48] Rutland 4 - AAA 0-9 5.04 35.73 212
361 [49] Worth County 1 - AAA 0-10 4.95 33.79 236
362 [32] Bowdon 6 - A 2-8 3.83 24.88 317
363 [50] Haralson County 6 - AAA 2-8 3.75 26.15 306
364 [51] Fannin County 7 - AAA 2-8 3.66 30.27 273
365 [47] Putnam County 8 - AA 5-5 2.74 6.88 401
366 [48] East Laurens 3 - AA 0-10 2.68 35.64 214
367 [33] Gordon Lee 6 - A 2-8 2.64 14.99 393
368 [29] Riverside Military Academy 8 - A 2-8 2.43 16.81 386
369 [34] Hancock Central 7 - A 2-8 2.25 18.86 367
370 [50] LaFayette 6 - AAAA 3-7 1.82 23.94 327
371 [35] Portal 3 - A 2-8 1.43 21.10 345
372 [36] Hawkinsville 4 - A 2-8 1.07 26.73 301
373 [49] Westside (Augusta) 4 - AA 1-9 0.90 22.22 338
374 [52] Long County 2 - AAA 0-10 0.47 30.28 272
375 [37] Wheeler County 3 - A 4-6 0.44 5.71 403
376 [55] Chamblee 5 - AAAAA 1-9 0.08 29.81 276
377 [50] Social Circle 8 - AA 3-7 -0.02 16.06 389
378 [51] Gordon Central 7 - AA 2-8 -0.36 17.69 377
379 [38] Lanier County 2 - A 1-9 -0.64 28.84 282
380 [30] Christian Heritage 6 - A 2-8 -0.92 19.14 366
381 [31] Lakeview Academy 8 - A 2-8 -1.38 17.13 383
382 [52] Monticello 8 - AA 2-9 -1.73 19.94 356
383 [39] Greene County 7 - A 3-7 -2.18 11.20 397
384 [53] Model 7 - AA 1-9 -2.70 24.76 319
385 [54] Armuchee 7 - AA 1-9 -3.34 18.20 369
386 [53] Stone Mountain 5 - AAA 1-9 -4.02 34.24 228
387 [51] Druid Hills 4 - AAAA 1-9 -4.35 21.36 343
388 [32] Providence Christian 8 - A 1-9 -6.88 20.57 350
389 [55] Josey 4 - AA 1-9 -7.07 23.67 328
390 [33] Landmark Christian 5 - A 0-10 -8.00 30.85 266
391 [40] Treutlen 3 - A 1-9 -8.04 16.38 387
392 [34] King's Ridge Christian 6 - A 2-8 -8.06 17.76 375
393 [41] Greenville 4 - A 2-8 -8.07 21.36 344
394 [48] Berkmar 7 - AAAAAAA 0-10 -9.32 54.52 40
395 [1] Georgia Military College 7 - A† 4-6 -10.64 2.47 409
396 [58] Osborne 6 - AAAAAA† 0-9 -10.91 39.16 174
397 [54] East Jackson 8 - AAA 1-8 -11.92 19.39 360
398 [42] Terrell County 1 - A 3-7 -12.17 3.80 406
399 [43] Calhoun County 1 - A 3-7 -12.49 3.90 405
400 [44] Central (Talbotton) 4 - A 3-7 -13.42 8.59 398
401 [45] Warren County 7 - A 1-9 -13.78 20.50 353
402 [55] Groves 3 - AAA 1-9 -16.77 14.39 394
403 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 - AAAAA 0-10 -17.07 36.43 204
404 [46] Baconton Charter 1 - A 3-7 -17.98 -2.99 415
405 [35] Pinecrest Academy 6 - A 0-10 -20.13 22.61 336
406 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 - AAA 0-10 -20.50 29.47 278
407 [57] Johnson (Savannah) 3 - AAA 0-10 -21.34 27.15 296
408 [47] Randolph-Clay 1 - A 2-8 -21.72 1.10 410
409 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 - AA 1-9 -21.78 6.30 402
410 [52] Gilmer 6 - AAAA 0-10 -22.88 34.11 230
411 [48] Twiggs County 7 - A 0-10 -24.24 22.69 335
412 [57] Clarkston 5 - AAAAA† 1-9 -24.28 17.09 385
413 [49] Crawford County 4 - A 3-7 -25.27 -2.49 414
414 [50] Stewart County 1 - A 1-9 -33.08 -1.56 413
415 [2] Glascock County 7 - A† 3-7 -41.75 -25.76 416
416 [36] Pacelli 4 - A 0-10 -46.19 7.16 399
417 [3] Pataula Charter 1 - A† 2-7 -55.61 -48.63 418
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 - AAAAA† 0-6 -70.09 -29.68 417

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAAA 89.61 79.94
2 8 - AAAAAAA 82.06 59.92
3 3 - AAAAAAA 80.23 67.94
4 6 - AAAAAAA 79.70 54.92
5 7 - AAAAAAA 79.08 56.05
6 1 - AAAAAA 77.01 65.87
7 4 - AAAAAAA 75.88 60.34
8 7 - AAAA 74.46 55.49
9 8 - AAAAA 73.64 38.43
10 5 - AAAAAAA 72.08 55.41
11 4 - AAAAA 71.88 52.30
12 2 - AAAAAA 71.50 60.64
13 5 - AAAA 70.49 50.03
14 7 - AAAAA 69.35 46.72
15 1 - AAAAA 66.14 44.55
16 2 - AA 65.30 43.60
17 8 - AA 64.84 9.00
18 6 - AA 64.10 29.01
19 5 - AAAAAA 64.09 45.09
20 7 - AAA 64.01 29.90
21 6 - AAAAAA 63.52 48.89
22 1 - AA 63.36 46.42
23 5 - AAA 62.26 35.15
24 3 - AAAA 61.35 37.95
25 4 - AAAAAA 60.61 36.36
26 2 - AAAAA 59.41 46.24
27 8 - AAAA 59.29 44.13
28 2 - AAAAAAA 59.25 48.32
29 4 - AAA 59.01 30.73
30 2 - AAAA 57.38 44.17
31 5 - A 57.36 25.88
32 3 - AAAAA 57.01 40.78
33 5 - AA 56.04 33.92
34 3 - AAAAAA 55.89 43.21
35 7 - AAAAAA 54.81 35.93
36 4 - AA 54.73 20.36
37 8 - AAAAAA 54.14 40.40
38 6 - AAAA 53.41 31.85
39 6 - AAAAA 52.55 33.18
40 3 - AA 51.60 36.35
41 1 - AAAA 51.39 35.41
42 6 - AAA 50.32 22.90
6-South - AAA 53.04 32.14
6-North - AAA 28.75 14.77
43 2 - A 49.00 26.98
44 1 - AAA 46.52 29.27
45 8 - A 46.40 17.58
46 4 - AAAA 46.16 23.99
47 6 - A 45.27 18.89
6-Div B - A 41.90 20.57
6-Div A - A 36.89 17.09
48 4 - A 43.94 16.52
4-Div B - A 40.01 23.73
4-Div A - A 36.34 6.21
49 3 - A 43.50 20.19
3-Div A - A 39.18 24.21
3-Div B - A 36.42 15.57
50 8 - AAA 42.43 26.89
51 7 - AA 41.78 16.99
52 5 - AAAAA 41.27 28.42
53 3 - AAA 41.09 17.81
54 7 - A 40.01 18.06
7-Div A - A 35.97 20.35
7-Div B - A 33.14 15.03
55 2 - AAA 39.73 24.13
56 1 - A 23.18 -1.90

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/25 Grovetown North Oconee 14 - 35 19.87 87.9% 0.146
10/13 Carrollton Hiram 14 - 41 14.13 80.4% 0.215
08/25 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe Armuchee 23 - 27 17.42 85.1% 0.229
08/19 Toombs County East Laurens 10 - 8 53.87 99.5% 0.230
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 - 17 15.39 82.3% 0.230
08/25 Centennial Wheeler 38 - 42 17.09 84.7% 0.234
08/18 Pebblebrook South Cobb 7 - 10 16.53 83.9% 0.247
09/15 North Cobb East Coweta 35 - 36 16.64 84.1% 0.256
09/15 Aquinas Mount de Sales 3 - 14 13.12 78.8% 0.266
09/22 St. Pius X Lanier 33 - 36 14.73 81.4% 0.273
09/15 Evans Washington County 48 - 49 15.01 81.8% 0.280
08/25 Elbert County Washington-Wilkes 15 - 33 10.62 74.3% 0.290
10/20 Lee County Valdosta 28 - 31 13.54 79.5% 0.291
10/20 Glynn Academy Richmond Hill 7 - 12 12.66 78.0% 0.296
09/01 First Presbyterian Brookstone 27 - 34 12.09 77.0% 0.297

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
86.49 11/17 North Gwinnett Grayson 35 - 28 3.22 58.0%
85.79 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 51 - 38 5.27 62.9%
85.71 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County 51 - 45 6.68 66.1%
84.80 08/19 North Gwinnett Walton 28 - 31 4.89 62.0%
84.75 12/01 Buford Rome - 6.90 66.6%
84.54 10/13 Grayson Archer 3 - 6 1.14 52.8%
84.53 09/15 Brookwood Colquitt County 42 - 25 2.42 56.0%
84.53 12/01 Brookwood Colquitt County - 2.42 56.0%
84.34 08/19 Brookwood Archer 17 - 25 1.88 54.7%
84.11 08/25 Brookwood Walton 35 - 42 1.39 53.5%
84.11 11/24 Brookwood Tift County 35 - 28 3.09 57.7%
83.73 11/24 Archer Colquitt County 7 - 12 0.54 51.4%
83.58 10/20 Colquitt County Tift County 35 - 38 1.70 54.2%
83.47 11/17 Colquitt County Walton 28 - 21 0.00 50.0%
83.15 11/17 Lowndes McEachern 31 - 36 9.59 72.3%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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