Maxwell Playoff Projections: Quarterfinals
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Markov Chain analysis of the 2015 playoffs. The analysis represents 1,000,000 iterations.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
Class AAAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson | R 8, #1 | 12-0 | 98.55 | 79.83 | 3.97 | 1,000,000 | 961,728 | 624,017 | 383,331 | 1.61 |
| Colquitt County | R 1, #1 | 12-0 | 95.70 | 80.02 | 3.83 | 1,000,000 | 942,079 | 598,898 | 288,251 | 2.47 |
| Roswell | R 5, #1 | 12-0 | 93.24 | 83.03 | 3.49 | 1,000,000 | 943,053 | 369,638 | 179,650 | 4.57 |
| Archer | R 8, #2 | 11-1 | 92.74 | 87.48 | 2.87 | 1,000,000 | 550,576 | 228,905 | 93,840 | 9.66 |
| Mill Creek | R 7, #1 | 12-0 | 89.00 | 84.76 | 2.67 | 1,000,000 | 449,424 | 166,556 | 54,189 | 17.45 |
| South Forsyth | R 6, #1 | 11-1 | 67.81 | 85.95 | 2.06 | 1,000,000 | 57,921 | 5,641 | 327 | 3,061.39 |
| Westlake | R 3, #1 | 10-2 | 66.31 | 86.95 | 2.04 | 1,000,000 | 38,272 | 3,440 | 218 | 4,575.68 |
| Collins Hill | R 7, #3 | 7-5 | 66.88 | 86.33 | 2.06 | 1,000,000 | 56,947 | 2,906 | 194 | 5,140.94 |
Class AAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northgate | R 4, #2 | 11-1 | 75.14 | 62.55 | 3.64 | 1,000,000 | 832,298 | 497,801 | 307,037 | 2.26 |
| Stockbridge | R 4, #1 | 12-0 | 73.71 | 60.28 | 3.43 | 1,000,000 | 682,438 | 485,404 | 263,451 | 2.80 |
| Houston County | R 2, #1 | 11-1 | 69.90 | 65.45 | 2.89 | 1,000,000 | 523,483 | 248,015 | 121,973 | 7.20 |
| Allatoona | R 5, #1 | 11-1 | 68.96 | 64.49 | 2.79 | 1,000,000 | 476,517 | 215,473 | 101,065 | 8.89 |
| Ware County | R 3, #3 | 10-2 | 67.52 | 66.22 | 2.92 | 1,000,000 | 616,330 | 219,602 | 86,689 | 10.54 |
| Glynn Academy | R 3, #2 | 10-2 | 67.77 | 66.02 | 2.57 | 1,000,000 | 317,562 | 183,232 | 73,393 | 12.63 |
| Drew | R 4, #4 | 9-3 | 64.49 | 64.44 | 2.53 | 1,000,000 | 383,670 | 111,761 | 36,586 | 26.33 |
| Kell | R 7, #2 | 9-3 | 59.12 | 66.71 | 2.22 | 1,000,000 | 167,702 | 38,711 | 9,805 | 100.99 |
Class AAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodward Academy | R 5, #1 | 12-0 | 75.99 | 58.56 | 3.79 | 1,000,000 | 845,796 | 561,651 | 387,445 | 1.58 |
| Cartersville | R 7, #1 | 12-0 | 70.29 | 58.69 | 3.44 | 1,000,000 | 773,468 | 465,889 | 202,352 | 3.94 |
| Buford | R 8, #1 | 11-1 | 71.48 | 60.00 | 3.30 | 1,000,000 | 760,605 | 341,518 | 201,198 | 3.97 |
| Bainbridge | R 1, #1 | 12-0 | 68.35 | 62.37 | 3.15 | 1,000,000 | 671,284 | 346,684 | 135,109 | 6.40 |
| St. Pius X | R 6, #1 | 10-2 | 61.21 | 61.55 | 2.47 | 1,000,000 | 328,716 | 116,213 | 28,480 | 34.11 |
| Thomson | R 3, #1 | 11-1 | 59.92 | 62.18 | 2.31 | 1,000,000 | 239,395 | 53,149 | 16,987 | 57.87 |
| Marist | R 6, #2 | 10-2 | 60.68 | 63.91 | 2.21 | 1,000,000 | 154,204 | 43,682 | 14,666 | 67.19 |
| Jonesboro | R 4, #1 | 11-1 | 58.01 | 62.27 | 2.31 | 1,000,000 | 226,532 | 71,214 | 13,764 | 71.66 |
Class AAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blessed Trinity | R 4, #1 | 11-0-1 | 69.29 | 52.38 | 3.91 | 1,000,000 | 978,731 | 537,074 | 389,759 | 1.57 |
| Calhoun | R 6, #1 | 12-0 | 69.08 | 51.18 | 3.66 | 1,000,000 | 886,552 | 447,740 | 323,154 | 2.09 |
| Cedar Grove | R 4, #2 | 10-1-1 | 62.72 | 49.49 | 3.83 | 1,000,000 | 874,572 | 707,669 | 247,891 | 3.03 |
| Adairsville | R 6, #2 | 11-1 | 50.20 | 52.13 | 2.86 | 1,000,000 | 654,527 | 181,956 | 24,758 | 39.39 |
| Westminster (Atlanta) | R 4, #3 | 8-4 | 45.52 | 53.34 | 2.41 | 1,000,000 | 345,473 | 63,681 | 5,767 | 172.41 |
| Elbert County | R 8, #3 | 10-2 | 50.23 | 57.75 | 2.13 | 1,000,000 | 113,448 | 14,420 | 4,576 | 217.52 |
| Westside (Macon) | R 2, #4 | 9-3 | 45.01 | 52.91 | 2.18 | 1,000,000 | 125,428 | 46,694 | 4,040 | 246.52 |
| Dawson County | R 7, #1 | 9-3 | 31.00 | 55.62 | 2.02 | 1,000,000 | 21,269 | 766 | 56 | 17,871.01 |
Class AA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Atlanta Christian | R 6, #1 | 11-1 | 64.10 | 45.01 | 3.89 | 1,000,000 | 801,548 | 683,894 | 407,083 | 1.46 |
| Benedictine | R 2, #1 | 12-0 | 64.64 | 48.46 | 3.72 | 1,000,000 | 752,315 | 598,967 | 366,647 | 1.73 |
| Rabun County | R 8, #1 | 11-1 | 52.34 | 49.30 | 2.81 | 1,000,000 | 583,705 | 167,314 | 57,871 | 16.28 |
| Fitzgerald | R 1, #2 | 11-1 | 55.24 | 51.01 | 2.44 | 1,000,000 | 247,685 | 139,718 | 56,662 | 16.65 |
| Pace Academy | R 6, #4 | 10-2 | 50.06 | 50.24 | 2.84 | 1,000,000 | 647,028 | 147,418 | 42,600 | 22.47 |
| Brooks County | R 1, #1 | 10-2 | 50.14 | 48.30 | 2.35 | 1,000,000 | 198,452 | 118,038 | 34,289 | 28.16 |
| Jefferson County | R 3, #1 | 10-2 | 48.96 | 51.11 | 2.54 | 1,000,000 | 416,295 | 94,001 | 26,509 | 36.72 |
| Macon County | R 4, #1 | 10-2 | 42.29 | 47.91 | 2.41 | 1,000,000 | 352,972 | 50,650 | 8,339 | 118.91 |
Class A - Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch County | 5 | 10-1 | 44.43 | 29.99 | 2.96 | 1,000,000 | 920,635 | 648,668 | 388,422 | 1.57 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 2 | 10-1 | 39.90 | 33.97 | 2.08 | 1,000,000 | 615,147 | 312,626 | 154,429 | 5.48 |
| Trion | 11 | 8-3 | 39.57 | 36.58 | 2.02 | 1,000,000 | 552,802 | 310,943 | 153,401 | 5.52 |
| Irwin County | 3 | 8-2-1 | 39.16 | 35.17 | 1.78 | 1,000,000 | 447,198 | 223,611 | 106,431 | 8.40 |
| Marion County | 1 | 10-1 | 34.85 | 34.14 | 1.75 | 1,000,000 | 499,000 | 177,858 | 75,106 | 12.31 |
| Commerce | 9 | 8-3 | 36.60 | 37.90 | 1.73 | 1,000,000 | 501,000 | 161,714 | 65,931 | 14.17 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 10 | 8-3 | 33.50 | 36.48 | 1.59 | 1,000,000 | 384,853 | 152,820 | 55,061 | 17.16 |
| Johnson County | 13 | 7-4 | 18.21 | 34.78 | 1.09 | 1,000,000 | 79,365 | 11,761 | 1,220 | 818.67 |
Class A - Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Avenue Christian | 1 | 11-0 | 64.30 | 40.52 | 3.35 | 1,000,000 | 964,084 | 739,832 | 647,920 | 0.54 |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 4 | 8-3 | 55.96 | 49.45 | 2.12 | 1,000,000 | 747,250 | 217,759 | 152,383 | 5.56 |
| Aquinas | 3 | 10-1 | 49.61 | 43.65 | 2.53 | 1,000,000 | 828,069 | 569,796 | 131,667 | 6.59 |
| Pinecrest Academy | 2 | 10-1 | 41.99 | 45.97 | 1.86 | 1,000,000 | 584,191 | 241,927 | 31,434 | 30.81 |
| Mount Paran Christian | 5 | 10-1 | 46.83 | 51.93 | 1.31 | 1,000,000 | 252,750 | 38,690 | 19,252 | 50.94 |
| Stratford Academy | 10 | 8-3 | 36.88 | 46.81 | 1.56 | 1,000,000 | 415,809 | 132,686 | 13,176 | 74.90 |
| Christian Heritage | 11 | 6-5 | 32.18 | 47.63 | 1.23 | 1,000,000 | 171,931 | 55,591 | 3,362 | 296.40 |
| Savannah Christian | 8 | 9-2 | 33.11 | 52.55 | 1.04 | 1,000,000 | 35,916 | 3,719 | 807 | 1,238.21 |
