Sports

Maxwell Playoff Projections: Finals

By Loren Maxwell
Dec 8, 2015

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Markov Chain analysis of the 2015 playoffs. The analysis represents 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Colquitt County R 1, #1 14-0 101.59 78.58 4.64 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 644,282 0.55
Roswell R 5, #1 14-0 95.65 82.36 4.36 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 355,718 1.81

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Allatoona R 5, #1 13-1 75.31 63.15 4.58 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 579,812 0.72
Glynn Academy R 3, #2 12-2 72.09 65.19 4.42 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 420,188 1.38

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Buford R 8, #1 13-1 81.33 61.57 4.58 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 582,246 0.72
Cartersville R 7, #1 14-0 78.01 60.21 4.42 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 417,754 1.39

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Blessed Trinity R 4, #1 13-0-1 69.41 49.23 4.83 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 834,795 0.20
Westminster (Atlanta) R 4, #3 10-4 53.21 49.98 4.17 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 165,205 5.05

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Fitzgerald R 1, #2 13-1 63.44 47.97 4.68 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 684,386 0.46
Pace Academy R 6, #4 12-2 55.70 49.30 4.32 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 315,614 2.17

Class A - Public

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Clinch County 5 12-1 46.21 29.75 3.51 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 510,249 0.96
Irwin County 3 10-2-1 44.14 34.30 3.49 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 489,751 1.04

Class A - Private

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Eagle's Landing Christian 4 10-3 59.78 42.30 3.74 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 743,073 0.35
Aquinas 3 12-1 47.50 39.43 3.26 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 256,927 2.89

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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