Maxwell playoff projections after Week 9
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons and teams with 100 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.
Class AAAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colquitt County | 1-AAAAAA | 8-0 | 99.03 | 860,703 | 835,346 | 667,417 | 454,586 | 1.20 |
| Grayson | 8-AAAAAA | 8-0 | 94.51 | 880,757 | 762,368 | 467,161 | 239,945 | 3.17 |
| Roswell | 5-AAAAAA | 7-0 | 93.31 | 697,215 | 614,372 | 341,119 | 161,315 | 5.20 |
| Archer | 8-AAAAAA | 6-1 | 88.70 | 615,973 | 405,280 | 144,368 | 55,613 | 16.98 |
| Mill Creek | 7-AAAAAA | 7-0 | 84.26 | 883,524 | 367,529 | 118,139 | 34,134 | 28.30 |
| Camden County | 1-AAAAAA | 8-0 | 82.43 | 310,440 | 241,719 | 88,868 | 20,115 | 48.71 |
| Peachtree Ridge | 7-AAAAAA | 5-2 | 81.32 | 790,529 | 226,806 | 61,648 | 14,529 | 67.83 |
| McEachern | 4-AAAAAA | 6-1 | 81.23 | 329,595 | 174,204 | 46,513 | 10,798 | 91.61 |
| Walton | 5-AAAAAA | 7-1 | 76.28 | 100,421 | 80,083 | 21,958 | 3,468 | 287.35 |
| Norcross | 7-AAAAAA | 7-0 | 74.28 | 635,197 | 106,896 | 18,574 | 2,540 | 392.70 |
| Lowndes | 1-AAAAAA | 5-3 | 77.69 | 108,093 | 52,195 | 11,052 | 2,022 | 493.56 |
| Newton | 2-AAAAAA | 6-1 | 69.43 | 363,285 | 42,685 | 5,622 | 492 | 2,031.52 |
| Parkview | 8-AAAAAA | 5-2 | 69.69 | 17,714 | 9,816 | 1,457 | 154 | 6,492.51 |
Class AAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephenson | 6-Div A-AAAAA | 6-1 | 78.05 | 701,656 | 600,288 | 485,843 | 318,048 | 2.14 |
| Mays | 6-Div B-AAAAA | 7-0 | 76.68 | 627,590 | 522,088 | 408,980 | 242,734 | 3.12 |
| Northside (Warner Robins) | 2-AAAAA | 7-0 | 75.61 | 468,345 | 379,716 | 279,265 | 164,618 | 5.07 |
| Northgate | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 7-0 | 67.49 | 647,077 | 374,803 | 149,172 | 59,332 | 15.85 |
| Coffee | 3-AAAAA | 7-1 | 66.37 | 510,034 | 316,487 | 110,525 | 42,037 | 22.79 |
| Allatoona | 5-AAAAA | 7-1 | 65.72 | 585,526 | 184,628 | 94,358 | 33,587 | 28.77 |
| Creekside | 6-Div B-AAAAA | 6-2 | 68.01 | 395,256 | 237,608 | 77,975 | 32,460 | 29.81 |
| Stockbridge | 4-Div B-AAAAA | 7-0 | 62.86 | 482,021 | 221,661 | 65,888 | 19,733 | 49.68 |
| Lanier | 8-AAAAA | 7-0 | 63.18 | 445,611 | 198,420 | 56,469 | 17,574 | 55.90 |
| Jones County | 2-AAAAA | 6-1 | 64.72 | 173,693 | 103,243 | 50,590 | 16,714 | 58.83 |
| Glynn Academy | 3-AAAAA | 5-2 | 63.32 | 266,407 | 138,698 | 42,143 | 12,648 | 78.06 |
| East Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 6-1 | 61.28 | 457,297 | 111,177 | 41,103 | 11,428 | 86.50 |
| Houston County | 2-AAAAA | 6-1 | 61.35 | 258,491 | 115,770 | 28,534 | 7,483 | 132.64 |
| Starr's Mill | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 7-0 | 58.97 | 296,102 | 76,283 | 19,286 | 4,498 | 221.32 |
| Carver (Columbus) | 1-AAAAA | 6-1 | 56.80 | 303,032 | 52,671 | 20,560 | 3,984 | 250.00 |
| Ware County | 3-AAAAA | 5-2 | 62.39 | 62,895 | 32,012 | 11,026 | 3,171 | 314.36 |
| Dalton | 7-Div A-AAAAA | 6-2 | 56.23 | 197,966 | 74,278 | 14,078 | 2,570 | 388.11 |
| Alexander | 5-AAAAA | 6-1 | 55.87 | 162,898 | 40,063 | 7,870 | 1,448 | 689.61 |
| South Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 5-2 | 56.30 | 109,884 | 26,650 | 5,530 | 1,041 | 959.61 |
| Effingham County | 3-AAAAA | 6-2 | 58.06 | 56,159 | 21,991 | 4,891 | 999 | 1,000.00 |
| Loganville | 8-AAAAA | 7-1 | 53.92 | 128,125 | 39,393 | 6,226 | 947 | 1,054.97 |
| Carver (Atlanta) | 6-Div B-AAAAA | 5-2 | 55.21 | 98,587 | 29,549 | 4,307 | 760 | 1,314.79 |
| South Effingham | 3-AAAAA | 6-1 | 56.08 | 56,791 | 20,176 | 3,959 | 681 | 1,467.43 |
| Woodland (Stockbridge) | 4-Div B-AAAAA | 6-1 | 52.60 | 131,236 | 23,407 | 3,288 | 451 | 2,216.29 |
| Kell | 7-Div B-AAAAA | 5-2 | 53.55 | 35,378 | 10,235 | 1,426 | 227 | 4,404.29 |
| Paulding County | 5-AAAAA | 5-2 | 52.03 | 62,070 | 9,504 | 1,495 | 197 | 5,075.14 |
| Cambridge | 7-Div B-AAAAA | 6-1 | 51.21 | 48,268 | 13,069 | 1,676 | 185 | 5,404.41 |
| Drew | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 5-2 | 52.73 | 51,779 | 5,954 | 1,027 | 143 | 6,992.01 |
| Creekview | 7-Div A-AAAAA | 5-3 | 53.46 | 13,123 | 3,924 | 789 | 123 | 8,129.08 |
Class AAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | 8-AAAA | 6-1 | 72.48 | 844,123 | 706,450 | 510,264 | 335,185 | 1.98 |
| Cartersville | 7-AAAA | 7-0 | 69.51 | 858,644 | 673,452 | 451,545 | 241,794 | 3.14 |
| Woodward Academy | 5-AAAA | 7-0 | 66.79 | 689,466 | 512,719 | 245,105 | 121,295 | 7.24 |
| Sandy Creek | 5-AAAA | 6-1 | 67.28 | 671,161 | 480,011 | 238,278 | 119,562 | 7.36 |
| Bainbridge | 1-Div B-AAAA | 8-0 | 65.36 | 517,374 | 369,939 | 179,155 | 78,135 | 11.80 |
| St. Pius X | 6-AAAA | 5-2 | 59.01 | 676,568 | 252,560 | 89,465 | 26,778 | 36.34 |
| Thomson | 3-AAAA | 6-1 | 59.27 | 635,686 | 185,218 | 76,588 | 24,840 | 39.26 |
| Jonesboro | 4-Div B-AAAA | 7-1 | 59.20 | 434,619 | 145,935 | 55,101 | 16,854 | 58.33 |
| Mary Persons | 2-AAAA | 7-0 | 57.67 | 394,513 | 138,670 | 40,614 | 11,504 | 85.93 |
| Marist | 6-AAAA | 6-2 | 56.00 | 524,844 | 153,637 | 35,003 | 9,233 | 107.31 |
| Locust Grove | 4-Div A-AAAA | 7-0 | 55.38 | 255,173 | 89,720 | 29,870 | 7,026 | 141.33 |
| Burke County | 3-AAAA | 6-2 | 52.14 | 220,354 | 43,795 | 9,237 | 1,803 | 553.63 |
| Liberty County | 3-AAAA | 5-3 | 50.90 | 131,772 | 38,787 | 8,440 | 1,399 | 713.80 |
| Carrollton | 5-AAAA | 4-3 | 49.95 | 210,141 | 45,435 | 7,697 | 1,135 | 880.06 |
| Spalding | 4-Div B-AAAA | 6-1 | 51.85 | 76,949 | 29,651 | 4,857 | 940 | 1,062.83 |
| Worth County | 1-Div B-AAAA | 4-3 | 52.30 | 53,709 | 16,904 | 4,005 | 773 | 1,292.66 |
| West Laurens | 2-AAAA | 6-2 | 48.07 | 94,758 | 18,785 | 2,810 | 372 | 2,687.17 |
| Cairo | 1-Div A-AAAA | 3-3 | 48.54 | 65,762 | 18,704 | 2,462 | 346 | 2,889.17 |
| Veterans | 2-AAAA | 4-3 | 46.54 | 107,896 | 17,083 | 2,321 | 267 | 3,744.32 |
| Eastside | 4-Div A-AAAA | 5-2 | 48.56 | 29,605 | 8,476 | 1,080 | 162 | 6,171.84 |
| Arabia Mountain | 6-AAAA | 4-3 | 43.97 | 106,168 | 10,031 | 1,218 | 130 | 7,691.31 |
| Stephens County | 8-AAAA | 6-1 | 44.21 | 75,148 | 10,499 | 1,371 | 122 | 8,195.72 |
| Wayne County | 3-AAAA | 3-5 | 45.47 | 71,742 | 9,462 | 992 | 107 | 9,344.79 |
Class AAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calhoun | 6-AAA | 7-0 | 70.50 | 940,897 | 877,179 | 635,639 | 453,457 | 1.21 |
| Jefferson | 8-AAA | 8-0 | 65.68 | 695,335 | 630,641 | 542,950 | 239,098 | 3.18 |
| Blessed Trinity | 4-Div B-AAA | 7-0 | 67.03 | 740,569 | 697,769 | 354,215 | 218,862 | 3.57 |
| Cedar Grove | 4-Div A-AAA | 6-1 | 57.39 | 344,556 | 295,232 | 161,020 | 44,590 | 21.43 |
| Central (Carrollton) | 5-AAA | 7-0 | 50.48 | 569,071 | 336,415 | 89,205 | 14,473 | 68.09 |
| Elbert County | 8-AAA | 6-1 | 52.36 | 251,988 | 161,990 | 36,997 | 9,925 | 99.76 |
| Westside (Macon) | 2-AAA | 6-1 | 47.75 | 408,214 | 139,153 | 31,176 | 4,666 | 213.32 |
| Adairsville | 6-AAA | 6-1 | 44.55 | 420,188 | 194,943 | 30,767 | 3,002 | 332.11 |
| Peach County | 2-AAA | 6-2 | 44.90 | 424,842 | 108,199 | 18,458 | 2,323 | 429.48 |
| Jackson | 2-AAA | 5-2 | 42.97 | 424,300 | 152,731 | 24,714 | 2,227 | 448.03 |
| Laney | 3-AAA | 5-2 | 42.21 | 479,028 | 56,988 | 24,377 | 1,874 | 532.62 |
| Pierce County | 1-Div A-AAA | 6-1 | 45.78 | 320,339 | 51,171 | 10,654 | 1,690 | 590.72 |
| Dodge County | 1-Div A-AAA | 7-0 | 45.07 | 233,945 | 44,728 | 8,743 | 1,213 | 823.40 |
| Hart County | 8-AAA | 5-2 | 43.48 | 198,121 | 38,053 | 5,938 | 691 | 1,446.18 |
| Callaway | 5-AAA | 6-1 | 41.17 | 190,093 | 39,181 | 5,329 | 462 | 2,163.50 |
| Cook | 1-Div A-AAA | 6-2 | 43.69 | 55,810 | 20,794 | 3,462 | 349 | 2,864.33 |
| Central (Macon) | 2-AAA | 4-3 | 39.33 | 210,830 | 20,902 | 4,027 | 297 | 3,366.00 |
| Oconee County | 8-AAA | 6-1 | 39.09 | 113,532 | 27,780 | 2,960 | 206 | 4,853.37 |
| Jenkins | 1-Div B-AAA | 5-2 | 39.89 | 74,874 | 23,234 | 2,510 | 157 | 6,368.43 |
| Spencer | 2-AAA | 4-3 | 39.04 | 108,229 | 12,980 | 1,563 | 120 | 8,332.33 |
Class AA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedictine | 2-AA | 7-0 | 68.34 | 868,094 | 745,171 | 653,531 | 452,529 | 1.21 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | 6-AA | 6-1 | 65.06 | 873,830 | 715,814 | 653,750 | 357,747 | 1.80 |
| Fitzgerald | 1-AA | 6-1 | 56.43 | 872,922 | 254,897 | 175,433 | 70,846 | 13.12 |
| Rabun County | 8-AA | 7-1 | 51.81 | 727,030 | 486,946 | 116,329 | 40,643 | 23.60 |
| Brooks County | 1-AA | 6-2 | 49.66 | 787,591 | 208,725 | 135,746 | 32,170 | 30.08 |
| Jefferson County | 3-AA | 5-2 | 47.56 | 646,353 | 303,067 | 53,951 | 14,890 | 66.16 |
| Wesleyan | 6-AA | 7-0 | 47.50 | 244,394 | 113,096 | 44,703 | 9,506 | 104.20 |
| Darlington | 7-AA | 7-0 | 43.24 | 463,494 | 291,976 | 51,613 | 7,405 | 134.04 |
| Macon County | 4-AA | 5-2 | 42.34 | 385,964 | 203,002 | 32,776 | 4,495 | 221.47 |
| Lamar County | 4-AA | 5-2 | 39.78 | 368,439 | 178,359 | 24,023 | 2,678 | 372.41 |
| Early County | 1-AA | 5-2-1 | 43.33 | 251,619 | 71,556 | 11,406 | 2,086 | 478.39 |
| Pace Academy | 6-AA | 5-2 | 42.80 | 189,857 | 74,465 | 9,473 | 1,608 | 620.89 |
| Lovett | 6-AA | 4-4 | 40.73 | 202,369 | 93,196 | 13,474 | 1,584 | 630.31 |
| Screven County | 3-AA | 7-1 | 37.23 | 132,770 | 55,695 | 6,614 | 586 | 1,705.48 |
| Dublin | 3-AA | 6-2 | 38.09 | 63,855 | 23,906 | 4,093 | 422 | 2,368.67 |
| Union County | 8-AA | 7-1 | 32.56 | 183,487 | 50,767 | 3,887 | 222 | 4,503.50 |
| Model | 7-AA | 7-1 | 37.09 | 79,302 | 18,226 | 1,459 | 178 | 5,616.98 |
Class A-Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch County | 2-A | 6-1 | 47.47 | 906,775 | 664,024 | 455,764 | 291,712 | 2.43 |
| Turner County | 2-A | 6-1 | 44.93 | 898,616 | 641,677 | 373,967 | 208,001 | 3.81 |
| Marion County | 4-A | 6-1 | 41.77 | 910,181 | 592,792 | 341,324 | 151,613 | 5.60 |
| Charlton County | 2-A | 5-1 | 42.79 | 876,047 | 564,079 | 289,507 | 141,834 | 6.05 |
| Irwin County | 2-A | 4-2-1 | 42.60 | 786,582 | 413,073 | 212,725 | 105,763 | 8.46 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 3-Div B-A | 6-1 | 37.11 | 763,764 | 367,379 | 129,027 | 45,221 | 21.11 |
| Lincoln County | 7-Div B-A | 7-0 | 37.44 | 532,952 | 243,698 | 88,372 | 31,283 | 30.97 |
| Commerce | 8-A | 4-3 | 34.48 | 539,190 | 164,763 | 56,492 | 15,946 | 61.71 |
| Trion | 6-Div A-A | 5-2 | 29.26 | 336,188 | 90,288 | 17,762 | 3,547 | 280.93 |
| Wilkinson County | 7-Div A-A | 5-2 | 27.33 | 240,803 | 62,039 | 10,840 | 1,862 | 536.06 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 6-Div A-A | 6-2 | 25.95 | 225,214 | 63,227 | 9,562 | 1,455 | 686.29 |
| Telfair County | 2-A | 4-3 | 26.09 | 221,297 | 44,254 | 7,122 | 1,093 | 913.91 |
| Dooly County | 4-A | 4-3 | 22.31 | 141,750 | 25,780 | 2,998 | 357 | 2,800.12 |
| Mitchell County | 1-A | 3-4 | 15.37 | 286,022 | 30,602 | 2,123 | 113 | 8,848.56 |
Class A-Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Avenue Christian | 8-A | 8-0 | 59.67 | 982,258 | 897,130 | 710,314 | 573,594 | 0.74 |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 5-A | 4-3 | 53.15 | 908,530 | 737,235 | 324,171 | 192,905 | 4.18 |
| Mount Paran Christian | 6-Div A-A | 7-0 | 49.25 | 875,381 | 592,854 | 350,287 | 125,815 | 6.95 |
| Aquinas | 7-Div B-A | 6-1 | 42.78 | 764,143 | 414,670 | 188,900 | 41,557 | 23.06 |
| Savannah Christian | 3-Div A-A | 6-1 | 40.52 | 769,183 | 384,770 | 174,601 | 31,308 | 30.94 |
| Landmark Christian | 5-A | 5-2 | 37.31 | 679,379 | 248,992 | 75,077 | 11,384 | 86.84 |
| Calvary Day | 3-Div A-A | 6-1 | 37.80 | 665,116 | 225,875 | 70,890 | 10,941 | 90.40 |
| Athens Academy | 8-A | 6-1 | 36.16 | 508,324 | 99,860 | 28,269 | 4,481 | 222.16 |
| Pinecrest Academy | 6-Div B-A | 6-1 | 33.42 | 559,023 | 146,851 | 40,496 | 4,373 | 227.68 |
| Stratford Academy | 7-Div A-A | 5-2 | 33.20 | 412,489 | 114,368 | 21,362 | 2,639 | 377.93 |
| Christian Heritage | 6-Div A-A | 4-4 | 28.77 | 178,310 | 38,246 | 4,440 | 408 | 2,449.98 |
| Brookstone | 4-A | 4-3 | 25.79 | 273,675 | 42,532 | 5,481 | 317 | 3,153.57 |
| Pacelli | 4-A | 5-2 | 23.57 | 239,130 | 28,351 | 2,862 | 143 | 6,992.01 |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | 6-Div B-A | 3-4 | 25.19 | 85,986 | 18,107 | 2,229 | 114 | 8,770.93 |
