Sports

Maxwell's mid-season playoff projections: Classes AAAAAA, AAAAA, AAAA

By Todd Holcomb
Sept 30, 2014

Below are the Maxwell Ratings' mid-season projections of the playoff draw for Class AAAAAA, Class AAAAA, and Class AAAA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.

Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
1 - AAAAAA 3 927,974 584,037 0.71
7 - AAAAAA 1 293,099 132,968 6.52
8 - AAAAAA 2 257,878 112,433 7.89
4 - AAAAAA 2 290,214 109,073 8.17
5 - AAAAAA 0 117,940 30,993 31.27
3 - AAAAAA 1 60,482 17,720 55.43
2 - AAAAAA 0 42,326 11,016 89.78
6 - AAAAAA 0 10,087 1,760 567.18

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Rgn Rating Playoffs Depth Finals Champion Odds
Colquitt County 1 97.25 995,545 3.36 542,932 421,145 1.37
North Gwinnett 7 89.25 999,758 1.98 212,438 110,238 8.07
Lowndes 1 87.46 933,287 1.85 178,957 80,667 11.40
Grayson 8 88.09 996,966 1.67 158,359 77,298 11.94
McEachern 4 85.79 982,242 2.19 170,903 74,981 12.34
Camden County 1 86.97 890,390 1.77 175,965 74,406 12.44
Dacula 8 84.05 977,492 1.12 77,894 29,892 32.45
North Cobb 4 80.19 984,842 1.65 76,966 23,593 41.39
Hughes 3 79.92 994,779 1.39 53,972 16,689 58.92
Milton 5 79.78 903,061 1.39 48,777 14,843 66.37
Roswell 5 77.63 985,563 1.50 44,348 11,441 86.40
Hillgrove 4 77.49 989,609 1.32 40,962 10,360 95.53
Peachtree Ridge 7 80.26 828,559 0.68 31,243 9,429 105.06
Norcross 7 79.19 838,137 0.66 27,065 7,605 130.49
Valdosta 1 78.48 803,392 0.80 28,568 7,604 130.51
Tucker 2 78.05 999,893 0.73 26,344 7,071 140.42
Archer 8 77.57 917,313 0.58 18,969 4,850 205.19
Lovejoy 2 76.81 999,744 0.56 15,822 3,933 253.26
Collins Hill 7 77.75 672,494 0.38 11,869 3,098 321.79
Walton 5 74.82 682,471 0.77 12,427 2,654 375.79
Mill Creek 7 76.86 658,623 0.37 10,484 2,598 383.91
Alpharetta 6 72.39 999,253 0.71 9,547 1,718 581.07
Woodstock 5 71.13 868,154 0.83 7,646 1,210 825.45
East Coweta 3 71.37 956,694 0.56 6,179 1,012 987.14
Etowah 5 71.98 490,083 0.44 4,693 840 1,189.48
Central Gwinnett 8 70.87 823,940 0.23 2,398 366 2,731.24
Tift County 1 70.43 300,775 0.16 1,526 215 4,650.16
Marietta 4 67.55 673,580 0.28 1,309 135 7,406.41
Northview 6 63.24 958,676 0.28 466 40 24,999.00
Parkview 8 67.30 150,635 0.03 149 15 66,665.67
Newton 2 62.57 987,338 0.10 157 12 83,332.33
South Gwinnett 8 67.88 111,406 0.02 106 12 83,332.33
South Cobb 3 60.78 864,485 0.15 205 9 111,110.11
Newnan 3 60.90 424,609 0.07 86 7 142,856.14
Cherokee 5 62.15 66,822 0.03 49 5 199,999.00
Harrison 4 61.48 190,625 0.05 59 3 333,332.33
Westlake 3 57.03 583,280 0.06 39 3 333,332.33
West Forsyth 6 55.43 450,928 0.05 16 2 499,999.00
North Paulding 4 57.23 176,842 0.03 15 1 999,999.00
South Forsyth 6 56.96 865,271 0.13 47 - -
Lee County 1 61.92 76,611 0.02 26 - -
Lambert 6 54.05 213,127 0.02 7 - -
Centennial 6 53.77 510,984 0.05 4 - -
Rockdale County 2 52.20 815,971 0.02 3 - -
Shiloh 8 59.27 12,978 0.00 2 - -
Douglas County 3 51.50 158,474 0.01 1 - -
Brookwood 8 60.32 8,873 0.00 1 - -
Lakeside (Atlanta) 2 31.88 126,074 0.00 - - -
Alcovy 2 34.52 70,980 0.00 - - -
Campbell 3 39.53 8,973 0.00 - - -
Pebblebrook 3 42.64 8,706 0.00 - - -
Lassiter 5 60.42 3,643 0.00 - - -
Kennesaw Mountain 4 47.20 2,260 0.00 - - -
Mountain View 7 48.71 1,735 0.00 - - -
Chattahoochee 6 45.55 1,155 0.00 - - -
Duluth 7 45.96 694 0.00 - - -
Johns Creek 6 41.85 575 0.00 - - -
Berkmar 8 46.51 397 0.00 - - -
Wheeler 5 54.84 177 0.00 - - -
North Forsyth 6 37.99 30 - - - -
Pope 5 44.05 26 0.00 - - -
Habersham Central 6 24.30 1 - - - -
Osborne 4 32.73 - - - - -
Meadowcreek 7 20.11 - - - - -

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
3 - AAAAA 2 606,182 348,297 1.87
2 - AAAAA 2 399,628 204,670 3.89
6 - AAAAA 3 351,689 169,692 4.89
8 - AAAAA 1 215,186 110,475 8.05
5 - AAAAA 1 188,566 79,404 11.59
7 - AAAAA 1 161,328 65,925 14.17
1 - AAAAA 1 68,856 20,090 48.78
4 - AAAAA 0 8,565 1,447 690.09

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Rgn Rating Playoffs Depth Finals Champion Odds
Ware County 3 79.56 999,594 2.92 378,575 249,423 3.01
Northside (Warner Robins) 2 77.44 999,058 2.38 247,730 149,533 5.69
Creekside 6 77.16 960,689 1.94 225,060 121,622 7.22
Gainesville 8 75.83 999,710 2.11 192,019 105,777 8.45
Coffee 3 75.01 996,404 1.96 192,965 90,757 10.02
Allatoona 5 74.59 999,314 1.47 149,895 68,738 13.55
Kell 7 72.15 997,485 1.92 121,574 54,913 17.21
Jones County 2 70.91 997,004 2.05 147,631 54,579 17.32
Mays 6 71.97 900,091 1.20 86,678 35,686 27.02
Carver (Columbus) 1 67.40 997,688 1.37 54,143 16,876 58.26
Stephenson 6 66.96 927,787 1.08 38,454 12,167 81.19
Dalton 7 65.75 979,607 1.26 39,272 10,979 90.08
Glynn Academy 3 64.35 986,988 1.07 25,926 6,193 160.47
East Paulding 5 65.96 823,572 0.69 19,829 6,029 164.86
Lanier 8 62.54 998,297 1.09 21,962 4,598 216.49
South Paulding 5 64.23 875,711 0.68 13,739 3,801 262.09
Harris County 1 61.74 984,041 0.89 14,655 3,212 310.33
Brunswick 3 61.81 729,647 0.68 8,452 1,898 525.87
Stockbridge 4 60.71 695,899 0.23 3,454 684 1,460.99
New Manchester 5 59.41 655,017 0.29 3,199 529 1,889.36
Luella 4 57.27 903,728 0.41 2,534 410 2,438.02
Mundy's Mill 4 57.14 895,113 0.38 2,262 332 3,011.05
Houston County 2 57.19 610,005 0.33 2,015 314 3,183.71
Alexander 5 58.44 498,917 0.22 1,839 299 3,343.48
Evans 2 55.07 663,942 0.31 1,293 155 6,450.61
Carver (Atlanta) 6 57.87 353,291 0.13 868 148 6,755.76
Lakeside (Evans) 2 54.38 481,623 0.20 769 75 13,332.33
Salem 8 51.78 945,885 0.36 908 71 14,083.51
Southwest DeKalb 6 54.97 357,364 0.12 428 52 19,229.77
Richmond Hill 3 53.67 215,953 0.11 245 26 38,460.54
Drew 4 52.77 514,643 0.09 266 18 55,554.56
Cambridge 7 51.86 431,312 0.08 184 17 58,822.53
Flowery Branch 8 52.02 260,272 0.06 156 16 62,499.00
Warner Robins 2 51.01 248,188 0.09 190 14 71,427.57
Sequoyah 7 50.03 413,821 0.10 161 13 76,922.08
Tri-Cities 6 52.39 210,992 0.05 106 11 90,908.09
Hiram 5 52.16 135,439 0.03 64 8 124,999.00
Clarke Central 8 50.40 311,000 0.05 91 7 142,856.14
Heritage (Conyers) 8 48.69 199,594 0.03 39 5 199,999.00
Miller Grove 6 50.91 156,957 0.03 67 4 249,999.00
Creekview 7 46.93 492,544 0.10 80 2 499,999.00
LaGrange 1 45.09 755,528 0.09 50 2 499,999.00
M. L. King 6 50.30 108,218 0.02 28 2 499,999.00
Dutchtown 4 47.59 257,681 0.02 23 2 499,999.00
Starr's Mill 4 46.39 242,240 0.03 18 1 999,999.00
Riverwood 7 48.02 117,997 0.02 17 1 999,999.00
Winder-Barrow 8 44.19 181,184 0.02 6 1 999,999.00
Forsyth Central 7 45.63 304,865 0.04 25 - -
Effingham County 3 50.44 51,234 0.02 19 - -
Sprayberry 7 45.07 159,881 0.03 11 - -
Shaw 1 39.86 322,997 0.02 7 - -
Loganville 8 45.35 100,577 0.01 5 - -
Ola 4 44.73 218,463 0.02 4 - -
Cass 7 43.30 53,364 0.00 4 - -
McIntosh 4 45.03 136,375 0.01 2 - -
Northgate 4 43.81 87,776 0.00 2 - -
Northside (Columbus) 1 35.85 835,842 0.03 1 - -
Paulding County 5 45.03 9,194 0.00 1 - -
Columbus 1 29.72 101,427 0.00 - - -
Rome 7 43.18 44,066 0.00 - - -
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 42.06 30,869 0.00 - - -
South Effingham 3 41.42 19,055 0.00 - - -
Union Grove 4 40.51 17,115 0.00 - - -
Dunwoody 6 41.81 10,986 0.00 - - -
Banneker 6 37.69 8,648 0.00 - - -
Druid Hills 6 39.49 4,977 0.00 - - -
River Ridge 7 32.64 4,277 0.00 - - -
Cedar Shoals 8 39.95 3,456 0.00 - - -
Hardaway 1 15.09 2,477 0.00 - - -
Villa Rica 5 45.19 1,516 0.00 - - -
Lithia Springs 5 36.13 1,320 0.00 - - -
Statesboro 3 41.57 1,056 0.00 - - -
Woodland (Cartersville) 7 28.73 760 0.00 - - -
Grovetown 2 36.16 152 0.00 - - -
Morrow 4 26.90 92 0.00 - - -
Bradwell Institute 3 31.01 69 0.00 - - -
Richmond Academy 2 33.92 27 0.00 - - -
Apalachee 8 30.12 25 0.00 - - -
North Springs 7 15.40 13 - - - -
North Atlanta 7 15.84 8 - - - -
Forest Park 4 19.25 6 - - - -
Greenbrier 2 22.34 1 - - - -
Chapel Hill 5 29.22 - - - - -
Cross Creek 2 21.25 - - - - -

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
8 - AAAA 1 750,458 565,504 0.77
5 - AAAA 1 700,272 298,711 2.35
4 - AAAA 1 142,040 58,850 15.99
6 - AAAA 1 224,106 50,907 18.64
7 - AAAA 0 65,694 14,460 68.16
1 - AAAA 0 74,650 8,134 121.94
2 - AAAA 0 25,020 1,854 538.37
3 - AAAA 0 17,760 1,580 631.91

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Rgn Rating Playoffs Depth Finals Champion Odds
Buford 8 95.14 1,000,000 4.06 736,021 564,767 0.77
Sandy Creek 5 87.82 999,130 3.65 644,960 293,340 2.41
Griffin 4 80.66 999,547 2.16 139,801 58,792 16.01
Marist 6 77.45 999,849 2.28 211,518 50,042 18.98
Cartersville 7 70.56 999,505 2.20 62,257 14,365 68.61
Thomas County Central 1 67.96 948,548 1.48 50,952 6,149 161.63
Woodward Academy 5 66.11 831,004 0.94 27,744 3,121 319.41
Cairo 1 64.14 881,181 1.04 19,820 1,807 552.40
Mary Persons 2 62.52 993,145 1.18 23,056 1,781 560.48
Burke County 3 62.52 999,895 1.31 13,968 1,481 674.22
Whitewater 5 63.46 800,147 0.75 16,189 1,404 711.25
North Oconee 8 59.33 979,703 1.05 12,832 701 1,425.53
Carrollton 5 61.78 683,197 0.50 7,373 602 1,660.13
St. Pius X 6 60.59 987,128 0.63 7,387 571 1,750.31
Columbia 6 58.28 921,168 0.43 4,455 275 3,635.36
Troup 5 58.44 610,514 0.34 3,998 243 4,114.23
Bainbridge 1 55.26 691,041 0.58 2,594 142 7,041.25
Gilmer 7 53.01 907,642 0.50 2,194 67 14,924.37
Wayne County 3 51.86 999,258 0.74 2,341 59 16,948.15
West Laurens 2 52.24 883,638 0.46 1,339 52 19,229.77
Eastside 4 51.97 921,741 0.57 1,776 47 21,275.60
Thomson 3 50.92 993,555 0.58 1,438 40 24,999.00
Stephens County 8 51.20 898,474 0.49 1,429 36 27,776.78
Westover 1 51.66 600,954 0.39 769 22 45,453.55
Ridgeland 7 49.31 934,176 0.34 664 21 47,618.05
Upson-Lee 2 50.04 907,979 0.38 458 19 52,630.58
Grady 6 50.56 660,042 0.10 498 17 58,822.53
Monroe 1 49.87 478,069 0.22 479 14 71,427.57
Eagle's Landing 4 49.69 542,614 0.21 282 8 124,999.00
Northwest Whitfield 7 48.38 815,693 0.31 549 6 166,665.67
Jonesboro 4 47.06 443,692 0.15 128 3 333,332.33
Arabia Mountain 6 49.64 413,110 0.05 248 2 499,999.00
Baldwin 2 46.44 502,609 0.13 137 1 999,999.00
Pickens 7 45.10 265,755 0.03 30 1 999,999.00
Perry 2 42.18 328,238 0.06 19 1 999,999.00
Fayette County 5 44.07 76,008 0.01 8 1 999,999.00
White County 8 46.18 547,309 0.17 165 - -
Locust Grove 4 41.95 515,949 0.14 50 - -
Worth County 1 43.80 218,443 0.07 28 - -
Liberty County 3 38.24 957,889 0.07 13 - -
Veterans 2 41.41 304,579 0.06 10 - -
Americus-Sumter 1 40.00 133,066 0.03 7 - -
Madison County 8 39.28 311,031 0.04 5 - -
Chestatee 8 37.44 146,017 0.01 3 - -
North Hall 8 40.00 109,869 0.01 3 - -
Spalding 4 38.28 280,977 0.04 2 - -
Henry County 4 36.05 188,232 0.03 1 - -
Howard 2 34.87 79,812 0.01 1 - -
Crisp County 1 36.89 46,735 0.01 1 - -
Riverdale 4 32.42 85,137 0.01 - - -
Southeast Whitfield 7 29.30 71,413 0.00 - - -
Windsor Forest 3 4.96 49,403 0.00 - - -
Walnut Grove 4 32.46 19,655 0.00 - - -
Chamblee 6 36.69 12,388 0.00 - - -
Monroe Area 8 32.39 7,597 0.00 - - -
Lithonia 6 38.34 5,692 0.00 - - -
LaFayette 7 21.10 3,889 0.00 - - -
Pike County 4 23.82 2,290 0.00 - - -
Heritage (Ringgold) 7 21.90 1,927 0.00 - - -
Dougherty 1 21.89 1,545 0.00 - - -
Stone Mountain 6 23.65 615 0.00 - - -
Albany 1 17.80 418 0.00 - - -
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 17.48 158 0.00 - - -
Redan 6 15.96 8 - - - -
Hampton 4 8.41 8 - - - -
Johnson (Gainesville) 8 16.28 - - - - -
New Hampstead 3 -5.63 - - - - -
Cross Keys 6 -27.35 - - - - -

About the Author

Todd Holcomb

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