Twenty-six teams have clinched playoff berths in Class AAAAAA.
That leaves six open spots, and 10 teams contending to fill them.
Here is a breakdown of that:
- Lowndes, Tift County (1 spot open)
- Norcross, Collins Hill (1)
- Centennial, Northview, South Forsyth, West Forsyth (2)
- Douglas County, East Coweta, South Cobb (2)
Here is a region-by-region look at how the seeding might play out:
Region 1 - The Lee County-Valdosta winner will decide second and third place. That's pretty significant because it means the difference between playing at Lovejoy in the first round (the fate of the No. 3 seed) or playing at home against Rockdale County or Newton. Meanwhile, the Lowndes-Tift County game will decide the fourth and final playoff berth. Hard to believe that the Camden County-Colquitt County game is relatively meaningless, or that the 5-4, 0-4 team has won 13 straight region titles, and that the 9-0, 4-0 team hasn't won a region title since 1999. Until now.
Region 2 – Newton and Rockdale County are playing for third and fourth place. Another way to put it is to say that the loser will travel to No. 1 Colquitt County in the first round. Tucker will be the No. 1 seed, Lovejoy the No. 2.
Region 3 – The big game is East Coweta at South Cobb. If East Coweta wins, the seedings will be No. 1 Westlake, No. 2 Hughes, No. 3 East Coweta and No. 4 Douglas County. But if South Cobb wins, there could be a three-way tie for third, fourth and fifth. Here is what happens then: If East Coweta loses by seven points or less, East Coweta will be fourth. If South Cobb wins by eight points or more, South Cobb will be fourth. Douglas County will be third in both scenarios (assuming Douglas County beats Pebblebrook to ensure the three-way tie).
Region 4 – Hillgrove and McEachern play for the title on Friday. The other games don't matter. North Cobb will be the No. 3 seed. North Paulding will be the No. 4.
Region 5 – Milton will win its first region title since 1952 with a victory over Wheeler. Without upsets, the finish will be No. 1 Milton, No. 2 Etowah, No. 3 Roswell and No. 4 Cherokee. Now, let's make it fun and say that Milton loses to Wheeler and there is a three-way tie. Milton is still the No. 1 seed if Pope beats Woodstock. Yeah, the Pope-Woodstock game matters because Region 5 is using a points system whereby teams get points for every region win of their beaten region opponents. Just trust me. Etowah can't win the region. Roswell can win with a victory if both Milton and Etowah lose Friday, or if Milton loses, Etowah wins and Woodstock wins.
Region 6 – This is the only region with six teams still in the playoff hunt. The other have only four or five teams in the running. Alpharetta is the region champion. The Lambert-South Forsyth winner is the No. 2 seed. The Northview-Centennial loser is out. After that, there are too many possibilities and tiebreakers at play. According to the Maxwell Ratings, here are the odds of each team making the playoffs – Alpharetta (100), Lambert (100), South Forsyth (84.3), Northview (67.9), West Forsyth (37.6) and Centennial (10.2).
Region 7 – North Gwinnett (7-2, 5-1) will be the No. 1 seed and region champion with a victory over Mountain View (1-8, 0-6). The Peachtree Ridge-Mill Creek game will decide the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. While that means the difference in being at home or on the road in the first round, it won't affect the difficulty of the first-round opponent – Archer, Dacula or Grayson. The Norcross-Collins Hill winner will decide the No. 4 seed.
Region 8 – If Archer (6-3, 6-1) beats Brookwood (2-7, 2-5), and Dacula (8-1, 6-1) beats Parkview (4-5, 3-4), as expected, there will be a three-way tie for first among Grayson (9-1, 7-1), Dacula and Archer. Coin flips will decide how they are seeded for the state playoffs. All three would be considered region champions. Central Gwinnett (5-4, 3-4) is the No. 4 seed because Central has beaten Parkview and South Gwinnett, the teams that could wind up tied for fourth.
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