With the season at its midpoint, Georgia and Georgia Tech have already ladled out a full autumn’s worth of consternation. The Bulldogs notched two of their biggest victories under Mark Richt but, after an egregious loss to Missouri, are no longer leading the SEC East. Tech has lost three in a row for the third time — and the second time in two years — under Paul Johnson.
Neither team has been as good as I expected – I’d guessed Georgia would be 5-1 with a loss at Clemson, Tech 4-2 with losses at Miami and BYU – and recent results haven’t left me brimming with confidence. Georgia loses by 15 points at home to Missouri? Tech loses by 18 points after trailing by 25 at unranked BYU? When does college basketball start?
But let’s not despair just yet. As we assess and project, we find that all is not lost for either school. Really! Truly!
Why Georgia is 4-2 and not 6-0: Because its defense stinks. The many injuries to the offense haven't helped, but the cold truth is that every opponent except North Texas has managed at least 30 points. We can ascribe some of this to youth – the Bulldogs returned only two defensive starters – but not, if we're to believe the recruiting rankings, to an absence of talent. This defense looks poorly coached. Too many receivers are left uncovered. Too many tackles are missed. (Not to make everything in college football about Alabama, but when if ever do you see a Bama man not wrap up?)
Who's to blame? Todd Grantham, the cocksure coordinator hired at high cost to replace the unloved Willie Martinez in 2010, was the toast of Athens when his 2011 defense was ranked fifth nationally. Alas, nothing since has been very good. A unit staffed by NFL'ers-to-be ranked only 32nd nationally last season, and this year's D is tied for 65th.
Why Tech is 3-3 and not 6-0: Because its offense stinks, and no, that's not a misprint. For the first time since Paul Johnson's first season here, the Jackets are statistically better on D than O. Yes, the defense collapsed at Miami, allowing the Hurricanes to average 10.4 yards per play, but Ted Roof's men kept Tech afloat against Virginia Tech and BYU. Even after Tech won at Duke on Sept. 14, Johnson was grousing that the Jackets weren't very good at running the option. He wasn't lying. Tech ranks 60th in the nation in total offense, 26th in total defense. In five previous seasons under Johnson, it has ranked 50th, 26th, 36th, 18th and 35th in yards gained.
Who's to blame? Given that he invented this offense and calls every play, who else but Johnson? And what's his Plan B? He's not going to switch to a pro-style offense. He can't go hire a new offensive coordinator because he is the offensive coordinator. And if Johnson's stylized offense doesn't get going, what reason is there to keep a man whose team is 24-22 since 2009 as head coach?
What might still go wrong for Georgia: The defense gets no better and Todd Gurley doesn't return to health and the offense cracks under the strain of having to score 40 points a game and the Bulldogs lose to Florida and Auburn to finish third in the SEC East.
What might still go wrong for Tech: The offense continues to flail and Johnson is forced to bench quarterback Vad Lee and the Jackets lose three of the final six games to finish 6-6 but not postseason-eligible (seeing as how two of the victories were against Elon and Alabama A&M) and miss a bowl trip for the first time since 1996.
What's more likely to happen for Georgia: The defense stiffens, if only a bit, and Gurley returns and makes like Knowshon if not quite Herschel and the Bulldogs win out to claim the East for a third consecutive season.
What's more likely to happen for Tech: The Jackets respond to this three-game losing streak – and to Johnson's gentle imprecations to do better — by beating Syracuse, Virginia and Pittsburgh before losing to Clemson and Georgia.
Georgia's postseason destination: After going 10-2 and then losing to Alabama in the SEC title tilt, the Bulldogs will make their fourth Capital One Bowl appearance (and second in succession) under Mark Richt.
Tech's postseason destination: After finishing 7-5, the Jackets will make their first appearance in the Music City Bowl.
What will happen with Todd Grantham after the season: Taking a hint, he'll leave for one of those NFL jobs he apparently covets.
What will happen with Paul Johnson after the season: Nothing. With his $7.9 million buyout, Tech can't afford to fire him.
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