Six mid-major bubble teams that could bust brackets in March

The life of a mid-major is not easy.

Wichita State, Valparaiso and Stony Brook all won their regular season conference titles during the weekend. And yet, they'll likely be playing in the NIT unless they win their league tournament. Saint Mary's, a No. 12 seed in the latest bracketology projection, is well-positioned to win the West Coast Conference after sweeping Gonzaga for the first time since 1995. But if the Gaels don't win the WCC tournament, they likely won't go dancing thanks to a non-conference strength of schedule that ranked No. 222.

Monmouth is the only mid-major team poised to secure an at-large bid should it not win its conference tournament, and even the Hawks' chances are murky. One bad loss could plop them on the wrong side of the bubble.

If these teams win their conference tournaments, however, they'll be extremely dangerous in the NCAA tournament. With less than three weeks until Selection Sunday, here's a look at six bubble teams capable of playing Cinderella in 2016.

Records through Monday.

Valparaiso

Bryce Drew's Crusaders (24-5, 14-2) are the Horizon League regular-season champs but they'll have their work cut out for them to get an NCAA bid. In the way will be Wright State, which beat them twice during the season, and Oakland, featuring explosive scorer Kay Felder. Should Valparaiso get in, it's as dangerous as any team to go on a story book March run. Junior 6-9 forward Alec Peters (17.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg) provides a versatile inside presence that could pose problems for power conference foes.

► Projected NCAA seed (with auto-bid): No. 12.

Saint Mary's

It's a bizarre notion that both Gonzaga and Wichita State, the two powerhouse mid-majors over the last four years, could miss the NCAA tournament. But the possibility is there. Blame the Gaels (22-4, 13-3) for likely ruining any chance for the 'Zags (outside a league championship) — beating Gonzaga twice, with the latest on the Bulldogs' home floor. This is a balanced offense, with six players averaging 9.0 points a game or more. Emmett Naar (13.4 ppg, 6.1 apg), a 6-1 sophomore guard, could become a March star.

► Projected NCAA seed (with auto-bid): No. 12.

Monmouth

The Hawks (23-6, 15-3) already feel like a Cinderella team, in large part because of an entertaining band of bench players that has drawn wide attention this season. But Monmouth can't afford any more slip-ups if it wants to be in the field. The Hawks lost at home to Iona by 16 points last week, and similar outcomes could prove costly. Monmouth has great overall profile because it has beaten UCLA, Notre Dame, Southern California and Georgetown. A proven giant killer will be hard for the committee to omit should Monmouth's credentials hold firm.

► Projected NCAA seed (with auto-bid): No. 11.

Chattanooga

The Mocs' 15-point home loss to UNC-Greensboro on Saturday all but kills their at-large chances. It also hinders momentum. But if Chattanooga (24-5, 13-3) gets in the field, the ingredients for upsets are there. The Mocs beat Georgia, Illinois and Dayton in the non-conference slate and are clearly the best team in the Southern when they're playing up to their potential. This is a deep, veteran team — with coach Matt McCall's top nine scorers all being upperclassmen.

► Projected NCAA seed (with auto-bid): No. 13.

Arkansas-Little Rock

The Trojans (24-3, 14-2) have a strong RPI of 43, posting wins against Tulsa and San Diego State. They're the best team in the Sun Belt and, barring an upset in the conference tournament, they'll be tourney-bound. Little Rock is exceptional at limiting its opponents, leading the nation in scoring defense (allowing 58.4 points a game). That's a great strength to have, but the offensive firepower isn't exactly there; the Trojans conversely rank 241st in scoring offense (70.4 ppg). Senior guard Josh Hagins (12.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.6 apg) always gives this team a chance to win.

► Projected NCAA seed (with auto-bid): No. 12.

Stony Brook

The Seawolves (23-5, 14-1) have never been to the NCAA tournament, but this is coach Steve Pikiell's year to get Stony Brook its elusive bid. The veteran team looks far superior to its America East foes. Senior forward Jameel Warney (18.9 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 3.1 bpg) is one of, if not the best, players in mid-major basketball.