With the 2018 season kicking off soon, it’s time to look at each team’s over/under win total projection. Which teams will overachieve? Who will underachieve? Let’s break down the teams by division, first the AFC East. (The over/under win totals are according to OddsShark.com).
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AFC EAST
NEW YORK JETS
O/U TOTAL: 6 WINS
This isn’t a make-or-break year for Todd Bowles and Mike Maccagnan, but the Jets’ coach/general manager duo need to see some results after their contracts were extended. The Jets last year were better than their 5-11 record suggested. Take away the fourth-quarter meltdowns and they could’ve been a .500 team. The defense played well and should be a strong point again. The Jets’ success all depends on the quarterback. If Bowles goes with rookie Sam Darnold, expect some growing pains. Still, he has star potential. The Jets have some underrated receivers in Jermaine Kearse and Quincy Enunwa, as well as one with a chip on his shoulder in Terrelle Pryor, so it’s not as if Darnold has nobody around him. How the Jets manage the three-games-in-11-days scenario to start the season will be a big factor in whether they go over or under their win total. If they’re 2-1 after the Monday night opener at Detroit, the home opener against Miami and a Thursday nighter in Cleveland, expect the Jets to be in the wild-card discussion in December. Even if they finish 8-8, that’s still an easy win for the over/under.
The pick: OVER
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
O/U TOTAL: 11 WINS
As long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are in New England, it’s hard not to see the Patriots waltzing to the AFC East title. But will they win 12 games? The guess here is no, and while it’s usually a bad idea to bet against Brady and Belichick, this could be the year they don’t have it that easy. They lost offensive weapons Brandin Cooks, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola, as well as cornerback Malcolm Butler and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Getting to face the Jets, Bills and Dolphins a combined six times is a reason the Pats have the highest over/under win total of any NFL team, but their non-divisional schedule isn’t easy: Texans and Jaguars to start the season, as well as games against the Packers, Vikings and Steelers. If the Pats finished 9-7, it wouldn’t shock me. Let’s say 10-6.
The pick: UNDER
BUFFALO BILLS
O/U TOTAL: 6
The Bills overachieved last year and caught a few breaks down the stretch to end the longest playoff drought in major sports (17 seasons). It figures to be tougher this year. Whether it’s Nathan Peterman or rookie Josh Allen starting at quarterback, it’s hard to see the Bills hitting the seven-win mark. Look at the start to their season: at Baltimore, home to Chargers, at Minnesota, at Green Bay, home to Titans and at Houston. They could start 0-6.
The pick: UNDER
MIAMI DOLPHINS
O/U TOTAL: 6.5 WINS
Ryan Tannehill returns after missing last season, but it’s hard to be confident about a team that traded its best player in the offseason. With Jarvis Landry in Cleveland, Amendola will be the new slot machine in Miami, but it won’t be enough to make the Dolphins a contender. In addition to playing the Patriots twice, Miami has road games at Houston, Green Bay and Minnesota and hosts Jacksonville.
The pick: UNDER
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