It may seem difficult to believe, but in five weeks, someone in the NFC East will make the playoffs.
It was an inauspicious week for the division. On Thanksgiving, the Eagles were clobbered 45-14 by a three-win Lions team. The Cowboys, who seemed to be ready to make a run with the return of quarterback Tony Romo, lost him for the season with a collarbone injury.
That left the Giants with a great chance to seize control of the division, but they blew it, losing to the Redskins on Sunday.
Now the Giants and the Redskins are 5-6, with Philadelphia 4-7 and the Cowboys 3-8. Throwing out the games against each other, they are 3-3, 3-5, 2-5 and 1-6.
Still, one of these teams will win the division, and get a No. 4 seed in the playoffs. Last year, the Carolina Panthers won the NFC South at 7-8-1 and then a playoff round. Which team will get a chance to emulate them?
Giants (5-6)
Chance to make playoffs (according to the Upshot Playoff Simulator): 44 percent.
Football-Reference Simple Rating System ranking: 19th.
Remaining games: Jets (6-5), at Dolphins (4-7), Panthers (11-0), at Vikings (8-3), Eagles (4-7).
Tiebreakers: 0-1 vs. Eagles. Division record: 2-3.
The Panthers and Vikings games look out of reach for the Giants, but if they can win the other three, including Sunday’s big game against the Jets, their chance for the playoffs increases to 70 percent. The Eagles game in the finale is huge in this scenario. Should the Giants lose it, their chances fall to 8 percent.
Redskins (5-6)
Playoffs: 36 percent.
SRS Ranking: 22nd.
Games: Cowboys (3-8), at Bears (5-6), Bills (5-6), at Eagles (4-7), at Cowboys (3-8).
Tiebreakers: 1-0 vs. Eagles. Division: 2-1.
A favorable stretch run gives the Redskins, who were 4-12 last year, a puncher’s chance at the playoffs. Three wins against the five losing teams on their schedule should be enough.
Eagles (4-7)
Playoffs: 18 percent.
SRS Ranking: 24th.
Games: at Patriots (10-1), Bills (5-6), Cards (9-2), Redskins (5-6), at Giants (5-6).
Tiebreakers: 0-1 vs. Redskins and Giants; Division: 2-2.
Sam Bradford is likely to return next week, but that only upgrades the Eagles from the 40th best quarterback to the 36th. The Eagles would be favorites to make the playoffs by going 3-2, but it is hard to see them doing so after giving up 45 points back-to-back against the Buccaneers and the Lions.
Cowboys (3-8)
Playoffs: 4 percent.
SRS Ranking: 28th.
Games: at Redskins (5-6), at Packers (7-4), Jets (6-5), at Bills (5-6), Redskins (5-6).
Tiebreakers: Even head-to-head. Division: 2-2.
Amazingly, the 3-8 Cowboys can still make the playoffs. But with Matt Cassel at quarterback, it is hard to see them going 5-0 or 4-1, as they probably need to do. (The Upshot calculator does not account for Romo’s injury.)
But in a year like this one, a 7-9 Cowboys team at the top of the division might be the aptest finish of all.
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