Clubs extended a record number of qualifying offers to this year’s deep free-agent class, tethering draft-pick compensation to half of this offseason’s Top 40 Free Agents. Still, with Major League Baseball flush with revenue and teams in both large and small markets eager to improve, this winter's bidding for top available talent will be vigorous.
Here’s the list of the most eligible domestic free agents — those with six or more years of major league service time, which doesn’t include other winter prizes like power-hitting first baseman Byung-Ho Park — as ranked by expected earnings:
1. David Price, Blue Jays LHP
A durable, left-handed, Cy Young-winning ace who’s only 30 and has a history of success in the AL East? Add in his heightened strikeout rate the last two years, and Price will command Max Scherzer money— or even more than the $210 million his former Detroit Tigers teammate pulled in last January..
Possible fits: Everywhere (especially Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs)
2. Jason Heyward, Cardinals RF
The lefty bat won’t ever be a clean-up power hitter—he’s only topped 20 HRs once—but his on-base skills (.353 career OBP), speed (three seasons of 20-plus stolen bases), his consensus best right field defense (two and soon-to-be three Gold Gloves) and especially his age (26) mean Heyward will be this market’s richest free-agent position player.
Possible fits: Cardinals, Tigers, Mariners, Angels
3. Zack Greinke, Dodgers RHP
Three seasons ago, he received six years and $147 million, with a midpoint opt-out that he just exercised, and then he became an even better, even smarter pitcher: 51-15 with a 2.30 ERA as a Dodger, capped by a 19-3 record and 1.66 ERA this season. He turned 32 last month and could match or exceed his last contract.
Possible fits: Dodgers, Cubs, Giants
4. Justin Upton, Padres LF
Upton is one of the two premium righthanded power bats on the market, but he’s steadier and younger than Yoenis Cespedes. Over the last seven years, he’s averaged 30 doubles and 25 homers with a .354 on-base percentage. He’s only 28 but will surely ask for a no-trade clause after being hounded by more rumors than anyone.
Possible fits: Giants, Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels
5. Chris Davis, Orioles 1B
Davis has the most pure power of any available hitter. He’s led the majors in home runs twice in the last two seasons (53 in 2013 and 47 in 2015) but the problem was that sandwiched 2014 year, in which he batted .196 to go with 26 homers — can the signing club be sure that won’t happen again?
Possible fits: Astros, Orioles, Red Sox
6. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals RHP
He wasn’t the first overall pick that got shut down and isn’t the highest-paid right-hander in history — his rotation-mates claim those honors — but Zimmermann, 29, won’t be overlooked as a free agent, not with his 3.14 ERA, minuscule walk rate and roughly 200 innings per season.
Possible fits: Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox
7. Yoenis Cespedes, Mets OF
With the Mets, he had a 24-game stretch in which he bombed an unfathomable 15 home runs and batted .333 with a 1.275 OPS . . . before finishing the final 16 games with zero homers, a .218 average and a .606 OPS that was less than half the prior stretch. The strong-armed, 30-year-old outfielder gets hot and cold; he can mash 35 HRs but his on-base can also sink below .300.
Possible fits: White Sox, Giants, Tigers
8. Alex Gordon, Royals LF
The most overqualified No. 8 hitter in postseason history — well, since A-Rod in ’06 — Gordon is an on-base machine (.377 OBP this year) with gap power and some of the best left field defense in baseball history. He’ll be 32 by Opening Day but still will be coveted.
Possible fits: Mariners, Royals, Astros
9. Johnny Cueto, Royals RHP
In Royal blue, Cueto proved to be as mercurial a pitcher as there is, but that won’t discount his track record pitching for the Reds in a hitter-friendly ballpark. From 2011 through the ’15 trade deadline, Cueto had a 2.51 ERA in 121 starts
Possible fits: Giants, Blue Jays, Cubs
10. Jeff Samardzija, White Sox RHP
The tall right-hander picked the wrong time for a career-worst season: a 4.96 ERA while allowing the most hits, earned runs and homers in the AL. A little of that can be explained by his new home ballpark—U.S. Cellular Field—but he’s a 31-year-old workhorse who will still be handsomely paid.
Possible fits: Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants
11. Ian Desmond, Nationals SS
The Nationals’ shortstop settled down from a train-wreck first half (.211 average, .589 OPS, NL-leading 20 errors) to have a more customary post-All-Star break (.262 BA, .777 OPS, seven errors). He just turned 30 and is, by far, the best shortstop available.
Possible fits: Mets, Padres, White Sox
12. Matt Wieters, Orioles C
The two-time Gold Glove catcher has only played 101 games the last two seasons because of injury and does not rate favorably by the advanced pitch-framing metrics, but Wieters, who’ll turn 30 in May, is a switch-hitter with power who, like Desmond, will benefit from being the top free agent at his position.
Possible fits: Tigers, Angels, Nationals
13. Mike Leake, Giants RHP
Leake put up league-average numbers while pitching most of his six seasons in Cincinnati. Perhaps most importantly, he’ll only turn 28 on his Nov. 12 birthday and has been healthy.
Possible fits: Giants, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays
14. Ben Zobrist, Royals 2B/OF
Zobrist does almost everything: switch hits, gets on base, plays every position, racks up WAR. The one knock is that he’ll turn 35 in May, and one wonders if age will diminish his versatility.
Possible fits: Yankees, Royals, Mariners
15. Daniel Murphy, Mets 2B
This is the portion of the list where the qualifying offer starts taking an increased toll on a player’s suitors. Is Murphy — even with his playoff heroics —worth a draft pick in addition to some $40-to-60 million? He bats lefty, is a .288 career hitter and clearly seems to have found more power in his swing, which could compensate for his defensive shortcomings.
Possible fits: Angels, Mets, Yankees, Rockies
16. Yovani Gallardo, Rangers RHP
Gallardo has made 30 or more starts in seven straight seasons and his 3.42 ERA in 2015 was a career best. There’s one red flag: his strikeout rate has declined three straight years from 9.0 per nine innings to 5.9.
Possible fits: Rangers, Blue Jays, Tigers
17.Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles LHP
The league took notice of Chen’s last two seasons, in which he had a 3.44 ERA in 62 starts while pitching in homer-happy Camden Yards. His walk rate was below 2.0 per nine innings each year, and he reliably took the ball 31 times per year.
Possible fits: Tigers, Red Sox, Dodgers
18. Howie Kendrick, Dodgers 2B
Kendrick is a right-handed version of Murphy—just without the playoff boon—in that he’s basically a one-tool player, which is hitting for average. In Kendrick’s case, he’s a .293 career hitter. He’s a year older than Murphy but a slightly better fielder.
Possible fits: Angels, Yankees, White Sox
19. Dexter Fowler, Cubs CF
Fowler eclipsed 150 games and 100 runs for the first time this season, as he continues to be a dynamic leadoff hitter—.363 career OBP and an average of 42 extra-base hits per season. He rates below-average defensively, according to advanced metrics, but he’s a switch hitter coming off a career-best 17-homer season.
Possible fits: Mets, Cubs, Tigers
20. Scott Kazmir, Astros LHP
Kazmir was dominant in Oakland (2.38 ERA) and less so after his trade to Houston (4.17 ERA), where his home-run rate nearly tripled. He’s a flyball pitcher who’d do well to stay in a larger ballpark. There’s a lot of wear and tear on his 31-year-old arm, but he’s not saddled by a qualifying offer.
Possible fits: Dodgers, Blue Jays, Padres, Royals
21. Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners RHP
The nearly 35-year-old is a ground ball-inducing strike thrower who has a no-hitter and an All-Star berth on his résumé. Iwakuma’s qualifying offer makes it likely he’ll return to Seattle.
Possible fits: Mariners
22. Colby Rasmus, Astros OF
The lefty power hitter slugged a career-high 25 homers during the regular season before adding four in six postseason games. He’s probably better suited to a corner outfield spot but can man center, too, which could increase his value, although the Q.O. likely binds him to a return to Houston.
Possible fits: Astros
23. Denard Span, Nationals CF
Injuries ruined last season, but Span, who’ll turn 32 in February, is a solid leadoff hitter and centerfielder when healthy. He’s coming off core and hip surgeries, however.
Possible fits: Tigers, Mets, Mariners, Cubs
24. David Freese, Angels 3B
Freese, who turns 32 in April, will benefit from a weak third-base market in which he’s the only regular starter available. His 14 homers and .743 OPS were both a little below-average for what’s customarily a big offensive position.
Possible fits: Angels, Braves, Brewers
25. Marco Estrada, Blue Jays RHP
Estrada’s devastating changeup received plenty of exposure during his three postseason starts, in which he had a 2.33 ERA in 19 1/3 innings on the heels of a career year: 3.13 ERA in 181 innings with an AL-leading 6.7 hits allowed per nine innings. His QO may lead to a multi-year deal to remain in Toronto.
Possible fits: Blue Jays, Tigers, Giants
26. Ian Kennedy, Padres RHP
Kennedy’s career ERA (3.98) isn’t sparkling, but he misses bats—about a strikeout per inning over the last three years—with six straight 30-start seasons, which is serviceable mid-rotation fodder from the soon-to-be 31-year-old.
Possible fits: Royals, Orioles, Angels
27. Darren O’Day, Orioles RHP
It’s a deep free-agent class overall, but relief pitching is in short supply. The sidearmer O’Day, 33, is the best of the lot with a 1.92 ERA over the last four years with 68 or 69 outings per season. He dominates righties but has shown he can get lefties out at a respectable rate with a K/9 rate that surpassed 11 this season.
Possible fits: Mets, Red Sox, Tigers
28. Brett Anderson, Dodgers LHP
The injury prone lefty made 31 starts in 2015 after making 32 combined over the previous four seasons. He'll only be 28 on Opening Day and, with the heavy sink on his fastball, he can be effective anywhere.
Possible fits: Dodgers, Blue Jays, Royals, Orioles
29. Joakim Soria, Pirates RHP
In his second full season after returning from Tommy John surgery, Soria had a 2.53 ERA and 8.5 K/9 over a combined 72 appearances with the Tigers (23 saves) and Pirates (11 holds). He’ll be 32 early next season and would be an asset in the back end of any bullpen.
Possible fits: Red Sox, Tigers, Mets
30. Gerardo Parra, Orioles OF
Parra will make a good consolation prize for a club that misses out on Heyward: he’s another left-handed bat who doubles as an exceptional fielder. Parra, who’ll be 29 in May, has a .326 career OBP and was off to a career-best start in Milwaukee last year (.328 average, .886 OPS in 100 games) before struggling after his trade to Baltimore.
Possible fits: Cardinals, Tigers, Mariners, Angels
31. John Lackey, Cardinals RHP
The veteran’s ERA (2.77) was a career-best, but like all of the Cardinals pitchers, his Fielding-Independent Pitching (3.57) indicated a strong boost from the terrific team defense. He turned 37 last month but still tallied strikeouts at rate commensurate with his career norms and will likely sign a two- or three-year deal with a contender.
Possible fits: Royals, Giants, Cubs, Dodgers
32. J.A. Happ, Pirates LHP
Happ was reinvented after joining the Pirates, pitching to a 1.85 ERA in 11 starts with more than a strikeout per inning. The previous four and a half seasons, however, were not nearly as good, so a signing team has to bank on hoping the reclaimed version of the 33-year-old shows up.
Possible fits: Pirates, Royals, Padres
33. Austin Jackson, Cubs CF
Jackson’s offensive production has slipped the past two seasons—both with a sub-.700 OPS—but he has gap power, some speed and the ability to play anywhere in the outfield. He’ll only be 29 on Opening Day.
Possible fits: Nationals, Reds, Rangers
34. Asdrubal Cabrera, Rays SS
Cabrera, who turns 30 this week, hits equally well from both sides of the plate, which is to say some pop (50 extra-base hits per year) with a .319 OBP and .421 slugging over the last five seasons — that’s more than 50 OPS points better than the average shortstop.
Possible fits: Padres, White Sox, Mets
35. Tyler Clippard, Mets RHP
The righty set-up man had largely been immune to relief pitching’s customary volatility until a poor September and October for the Mets, in which he had a 6.33 ERA over his final 22 appearances. His season strikeout rate fell from a 10.0 career K/9 to just 8.1 last season. That’s a mild concern, but he’ll only be 31 on Opening Day and will attract plenty of attention this winter.
Possible fits: Red Sox, Mets, Diamondbacks
36. Doug Fister, Nationals RHP
Th 6-8 sinkerballer went from career-best season in 2014 (16-6, 2.41 ERA) to a career-worst campaign in 2015 (5-7, 4.19) that began with an injury and ended with a bullpen demotion. Fister, who’ll be 32 before spring training, may accept a one-year contract to rebuild his value before testing the market again.
Possible fits: Pirates, Blue Jays, Astros
37. Ryan Madson, Royals RHP
After missing three full seasons with multiple elbow surgeries, Madson returned to form, throwing the same 94-mph heat with a 2.13 ERA and the first sub-1.00 WHIP of his career. He’s now 35 but will still land a multi-year deal.
Possible fits: Astros, Twins, Mariners
38. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox SS
After Chicago declined his $10-million option, Ramirez, 34, became the second-best shortstop available even though his average, on-base percentage and stolen bases have declined two straight years. He plays more than 150 games every year, usually with 30+ doubles and 10+ homers while manning a capable short.
Possible fits: Padres, Mets, Twins
39. Mike Napoli, Rangers 1B
Napoli, 34, lost his ability to hit in Boston (.207 average, .693 OPS in 329 at bats) but revived his swing after a waiver trade to the Rangers (.295, .908 in 78 ABs) and showed he could man left field in some capacity. At the very least, the righty bat can be an effective platoon against lefty pitching who could play himself into more regular playing time.
Possible fits: Rangers, Rockies, Orioles
40. Steve Pearce, Orioles 1B/LF
Among all big leaguers with at least 350 plate appearances in 2014, Pearce led the majors in his rate of slugging extra-base hits (26 doubles and 21 homers in 383 PAs) for a robust .930 OPS; that was first season batting more than 200 times. In 2015, however, his OPS fell more than 200 points as he batted just .218. He’s a capable first baseman and leftfielder and, at his best, has power from the right side.
Possible fits: Orioles, Rockies, Rangers
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