Jim Valvano coined the phrase “survive and advance” in 1983, and his North Carolina State Wolfpack spent the month of March – and the first weekend of April – writing the textbook on how to do both. But lost in the sweet memory of that famous championship run was that State, while an underdog, was never quite a Cinderella. Indeed, it entered the Big Dance as the ACC tournament champ.
On Friday, the Mercer Bears got Valvano’s formula right. They upset snooty Duke in the most stunning moment of what has become an eventful tournament. Survive? Yep. Advance? Absolutely. But the history of March Madness teaches us that, for No. 14 seeds, survival has a short shelf-life and advancement to the Sweet Sixteen almost never happens.
Of the 140 14th seeds in NCAA annals, only two – that’s 1.4 percent – lived to see a regional semifinal. The first came in 1986, when Cleveland State and Mouse McFadden shocked Indiana and Bobby Knight and the world and beat St. Joseph’s in Round 1. The Vikings would lose in the Sweet Sixteen to Navy and David Robinson, barely.
The second happened in 1997, when Tennessee-Chattanooga upset third-seeded Georgia – it was Tubby Smith’s last game as the Bulldogs’ coach – and then Illinois, which was coached by Lon Kruger. The Mocs lost to Providence in rudimentary fashion in the round 16, and that remains the last appearance by a No. 14 seed in the tournament’s second week.
That was the history the Bears were bucking. They’d grabbed the nation’s attention by felling Duke, but could they hold it the way Florida Gulf Coast, like Mercer an unheralded Atlantic Sun titlist, had done in storming past Georgetown and San Diego State last year?
Here for Mercer was the unkindest cut: Even as a No. 11 seed forced to play in the First Four, Tennessee was a much worse matchup than third-seeded Duke. The Blue Devils weren’t very big and didn’t defend much at all; the Volunteers are and do. Tennessee entered Sunday’s game having won seven of eight, the only loss coming against No. 1 Florida in the SEC tournament semis on a day the Big Orange led by 10.
More than a few courtside observers were surprised that the Vols didn’t tame the raging Gators nine days ago. Tennessee is among the nation’s most talented teams, and in February it finally began to play to its gifts. (It served a bit of notice Dec. 30 by beating Virginia, which would win the ACC.) Not many teams have three better players than Jarnell Stokes, Jordan McRae and Jeronne Maymon, and a fourth J-named Vol – wing Josh Richardson – has become the breakout star of the NCAA.
After doing nearly everything right against Duke, the Bears weren’t allowed to do much of anything Sunday. Tennessee scored the first eight points, led by 15 at halftime and by 20 at the end. The Vols snatched almost every rebound, defended without fouling and shot the ball better than their reputation would suggest. “If they shoot it,” former Auburn coach Sonny Smith had said of the Vols last week, “they can beat anybody.”
On this night they rendered Mercer a different sort of one-and-done. The Bears didn’t collapse in a heap – they’re too skilled and too seasoned for that – but neither did they have a real chance of winning. For the clever team from Macon, it was simply a game too far.
Don’t look now, but all three teams the nation’s best football conference dispatched to this tournament are still standing. The SEC ended the regular season as the seventh-ranked league according to RPI, but it’s 7-0 in the Big Dance having won over teams from the higher-ranked ACC, Big Ten, Atlantic 10 and Big 12. On Sunday the SEC authored one of the strangest upsets ever – Kentucky, which has won more games than any program, edged Wichita State, which hadn’t lost since April 2013.
We ask: Can it really be a shock when Kentucky – especially this Kentucky, which was ranked No. 1 in preseason – beats Wichita State? Via both seedings and odds, this game was. The Wildcats now head to Indianapolis, where they’ll meet their rival Louisville, which is also the reigning national champ. The winner of that game could well see Tennessee in the Midwest Regional final.
Kansas is gone. Syracuse is gone. Duke is gone. North Carolina is gone. Even Wichita State is gone. After a longer stay than expected, Mercer is gone, too. But the unloved SEC is unbeaten, and it would be no real surprise if either Kentucky or Tennessee, teams that finally have gotten it together, joins Florida in the Final Four.
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