Maxwell Week 12 projections

ajc.com

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Nov 19

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
57.84AAAAAALovejoy90.3%25 - 025North AtlantaAAAAAA
49.84AAAAAM.L. King59.6%21 - 174LithoniaAAAAA
47.60AAAAHardaway81.9%28 - 1414LaGrangeAAAA
44.10AAASoutheast Bulloch63.4%21 - 165Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
41.38AAAAFlowery Branch97.0%40 - 1030East HallAAAA
39.47AAAANew Hampstead91.2%33 - 1320Johnson (Savannah)AAA
36.87AAAGreater Atlanta Christian99.3%42 - 042RedanAAA
35.89AAUnion County75.5%23 - 149GilmerAAA
34.58AAAAArabia Mountain92.2%30 - 723Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
23.79AAWashington96.3%31 - 031TowersAA
22.14A PrivateBrookstone92.4%29 - 722Heritage SchoolA Private
9.76AAAAABanneker98.8%41 - 041Forest ParkAAAAA
9.72AATherrell94.1%34 - 727McNairAA

Nov 20

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
86.40AAAAAAANorcross69.8%26 - 206ArcherAAAAAAA
86.03AAAAAAACherokee52.0%20 - 200MiltonAAAAAAA
81.63AAAAAAABrookwood53.6%28 - 271ParkviewAAAAAAA
81.62AAAAAAAEast Coweta57.5%28 - 253NewnanAAAAAAA
78.54AAAAAABuford82.9%28 - 1414DaculaAAAAAA
78.39AAAAAWarner Robins89.4%28 - 820VeteransAAAAA
77.97AAAAppling County60.8%21 - 174Pierce CountyAAA
76.36AAAAAACarrollton68.8%22 - 166Douglas CountyAAAAAA
74.55AAAAAAAWest Forsyth61.7%21 - 156DenmarkAAAAAAA
73.25AAAAAAAHillgrove59.7%21 - 201HarrisonAAAAAAA
73.18AAAAAWare County90.8%29 - 821Wayne CountyAAAAA
72.02AAAAAAASouth Gwinnett57.6%17 - 143NewtonAAAAAAA
70.67AAAAAAAGainesville54.3%21 - 201North ForsythAAAAAAA
70.46AAAAAAAWalton72.6%28 - 208MariettaAAAAAAA
69.64AAAAAJones County65.2%23 - 194DutchtownAAAAA
67.92AAAAAAAlexander74.4%25 - 1510South PauldingAAAAAA
67.80AAAAAAWestlake86.5%31 - 1417TuckerAAAAAA
67.27AAAAAAANorth Cobb94.3%35 - 827North PauldingAAAAAAA
67.19AAAAAAASouth Forsyth72.3%28 - 208Forsyth CentralAAAAAAA
66.15AAAAAACreekview76.1%21 - 714Johns CreekAAAAAA
65.56AAACedar Grove95.9%29 - 029Sandy CreekAAA
65.01AAAAASt. Pius X73.7%28 - 208DecaturAAAAA
64.91AAAAAAAMill Creek89.9%30 - 1218Peachtree RidgeAAAAAAA
64.48AAAAAAARoswell89.4%33 - 1419WoodstockAAAAAAA
63.86AAAAACreekside62.8%21 - 165Woodward AcademyAAAAA
63.82AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett94.4%32 - 626Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
63.01A PrivateNorth Cobb Christian51.0%22 - 211Christian HeritageA Private
62.93AAAAAALanier63.6%24 - 204Winder-BarrowAAAAAA
62.91AAAMonroe Area51.7%22 - 211Hart CountyAAA
62.76AAACherokee Bluff51.0%24 - 240White CountyAAA
62.13A PublicIrwin County75.5%23 - 149Turner CountyA Public
61.87AAAAPerry58.8%22 - 202BaldwinAAAA
61.62A PublicMacon County53.7%20 - 191Chattahoochee CountyA Public
61.31AAAAAAEast Paulding57.2%22 - 211DaltonAAAAAA
60.92AAAPeach County92.7%31 - 724Central (Macon)AAA
60.12AACallaway79.4%28 - 1612Heard CountyAA
59.96AAAAAAGlynn Academy83.0%27 - 1413StatesboroAAAAAA
58.71AAHaralson County70.9%24 - 177BremenAA
58.56AAARichmond Academy72.5%28 - 208Burke CountyAAA
58.40AAAAAEastside75.2%27 - 1611GreenbrierAAAAA
57.13AAAAAAAllatoona95.0%28 - 028PopeAAAAAA
57.12AAAAAAAAlpharetta92.9%28 - 028EtowahAAAAAAA
56.88AAAAAUnion Grove68.0%25 - 205Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAAA
56.43AAAAWest Laurens58.0%20 - 173Westside (Macon)AAAA
55.63AAVidalia72.9%22 - 148SwainsboroAA
55.23AAAOconee County97.2%34 - 034Franklin CountyAAA
54.92AAAAANew Manchester50.6%21 - 210Chapel HillAAAAA
54.84AAAAAHarris County78.7%23 - 1310WhitewaterAAAAA
54.51AAAACairo82.3%26 - 1313WestoverAAAA
53.95A PrivateCalvary Day59.4%24 - 213AquinasA Private
53.56AAAAAAEvans78.4%27 - 1413AlcovyAAAAAA
53.38AAAAAARiverwood70.1%28 - 208ChattahoocheeAAAAAA
53.27AAAAIslands78.2%21 - 714Windsor ForestAAA
52.90AAAAAARome96.2%31 - 031Paulding CountyAAAAAA
52.87AAADawson County68.0%28 - 217North HallAAA
52.86AAAJackson54.1%25 - 232Upson-LeeAAA
52.79A PrivateWesleyan80.3%27 - 1413Mount Vernon PresbyterianA Private
51.52A PrivateHoly Innocents57.7%21 - 183Hebron ChristianA Private
51.21AAAACedartown92.8%28 - 028Heritage (Ringgold)AAAA
51.16AAAAMarist98.3%36 - 036MaysAAAA
51.04AAAAHapeville Charter89.3%26 - 620Miller GroveAAAA
50.28AAAAJefferson98.7%35 - 035Madison CountyAAAA
49.18AAAAAAAMeadowcreek75.7%28 - 208DiscoveryAAAAAAA
49.02AAAAAOla95.1%35 - 728Locust GroveAAAAA
48.48AANortheast81.4%27 - 1413Lamar CountyAA
48.09AAAThomson92.3%34 - 1321HephzibahAAA
47.41AAAAABlessed Trinity99.4%40 - 040Woodland (Cartersville)AAAAA
47.33A PrivateSavannah Christian88.2%31 - 1417Savannah Country DayA Private
47.04AAARockmart95.7%36 - 1026RinggoldAAA
46.57GISA AAABulloch Academy59.2%24 - 213Pinewood ChristianGISA AAA
46.53AAAAAJonesboro80.9%27 - 1413Mundy's MillAAAAA
46.23A PublicCommerce90.0%31 - 1318Lincoln CountyA Public
46.17AAAARiverdale75.5%24 - 1410LuellaAAAA
45.95A PublicDublin94.9%35 - 1025Montgomery CountyA Public
45.25AASouth Atlanta70.3%21 - 147ColumbiaAA
45.11AAAAAJackson County54.6%21 - 210ApalacheeAAAAA
45.05AAAAAVilla Rica52.9%21 - 210Maynard JacksonAAAAA
44.88A PublicClinch County90.8%28 - 721Lanier CountyA Public
44.73AAAABainbridge98.2%36 - 036MonroeAAAA
44.55AAAAAStockbridge79.4%26 - 1412Eagle's LandingAAAAA
44.31AAAAALoganville89.1%26 - 620Walnut GroveAAAAA
44.26AAAAAABrunswick96.6%34 - 034Effingham CountyAAAAAA
43.99AAAMary Persons81.8%26 - 1313Americus-SumterAAA
43.72GISA AABrentwood School52.5%21 - 210Gatewood SchoolGISA AA
43.53A PublicMetter96.7%32 - 032Emanuel County InstituteA Public
43.49AAANorth Murray80.6%31 - 2011LaFayetteAAA
42.68A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)87.3%24 - 618PacelliA Private
42.62AAAMorgan County89.9%28 - 820HarlemAAA
42.36AAAAThomas County Central89.8%29 - 1019DoughertyAAAA
42.00AAAAAAKell97.8%39 - 633LassiterAAAAAA
41.96A PrivateMount de Sales64.5%24 - 204Tattnall SquareA Private
41.32A PrivateFirst Presbyterian79.0%27 - 1413Strong Rock ChristianA Private
41.07AAAAASouthwest DeKalb88.7%30 - 1317NorthviewAAAAA
40.81AAAANorthwest Whitfield85.5%28 - 1414PickensAAAA
40.45A PublicTelfair County56.3%20 - 173Dooly CountyA Public
40.44AAAAAABradwell Institute54.1%20 - 200South EffinghamAAAAAA
39.82AAAAAStarr's Mill98.4%35 - 035Northside (Columbus)AAAAA
39.29AAAACentral (Carrollton)91.7%34 - 1321RidgelandAAAA
39.08A PrivatePrince Avenue Christian99.2%43 - 043Athens ChristianA Private
39.00AAAAAAHeritage (Conyers)85.0%27 - 1017GrovetownAAAAAA
38.61GISA AAAJohn Milledge Academy97.9%38 - 038Westfield SchoolGISA AAA
38.56AAAAHoward86.1%28 - 1216SpaldingAAAA
38.38A PublicMcIntosh County Academy91.1%28 - 622Jenkins CountyA Public
37.60A PublicJohnson County86.6%27 - 720HawkinsvilleA Public
37.49AAAAAAATift County98.6%38 - 038SalemAAA
37.19A PublicClaxton70.4%25 - 187Screven CountyA Public
37.03AAAAATri-Cities81.6%21 - 615DrewAAAAA
36.91AAPace Academy94.6%31 - 031KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA
36.54AAWashington County94.8%33 - 627MonticelloAA
36.51AAAAAAHughes99.4%41 - 041MorrowAAAAAA
36.29AAAAAASprayberry98.1%41 - 734South CobbAAAAAA
35.87A PublicB.E.S.T. Academy62.1%22 - 202Mount Zion (Carroll)A Public
35.59AAToombs County94.6%35 - 926East LaurensAA
34.81AAAAAAADuluth92.4%31 - 724DunwoodyAAAAAAA
34.62GISA AASouthwest Georgia Academy58.9%24 - 213Terrell AcademyGISA AA
33.33AAJefferson County97.6%32 - 032LaneyAA
32.84AAACrisp County99.7%42 - 042Pike CountyAAA
32.73A PublicGordon Lee89.4%31 - 1417TrionA Public
32.65AAAACedar Shoals94.3%34 - 727ChestateeAAAA
32.49AAASonoraville78.1%26 - 1412Coahulla CreekAAA
32.42GISA AAATiftarea Academy69.7%28 - 217Valwood SchoolGISA AAA
32.03AAPepperell93.2%31 - 724CoosaAA
31.90A PrivateStratford Academy94.6%34 - 727Deerfield-WindsorA Private
31.08AADodge County98.5%40 - 040SouthwestAA
31.01AAAStephens County97.2%39 - 732East JacksonAAA
30.33GISA AAABrookwood School81.8%27 - 1413Southland AcademyGISA AAA
30.29A PublicTerrell County61.2%21 - 174Seminole CountyA Public
30.04AAAAShaw55.5%24 - 213ColumbusAAAA
30.02AAAAANorthgate95.4%35 - 827McIntoshAAAAA
29.59AAAAdairsville94.6%35 - 1223Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
28.77AAFannin County97.9%41 - 734Dade CountyAA
28.44A PrivateGeorge Walton Academy98.0%37 - 037Loganville ChristianA Private
28.28AAElbert County92.4%28 - 622Banks CountyAA
28.14AAAAMount Zion (Jonesboro)80.0%23 - 1211McDonoughAAAA
27.77AAAAAChamblee89.4%29 - 1217BerkmarAAAAAAA
27.32AAPutnam County96.7%33 - 033ButlerAA
26.85A PrivateEagle's Landing Christian99.5%42 - 042Landmark ChristianA Private
26.50AAWestside (Augusta)85.1%24 - 717Oglethorpe CountyAA
25.30A PublicMarion County95.7%35 - 728GreenvilleA Public
24.08A PrivateLakeview Academy79.0%29 - 1910Providence ChristianA Private
21.32A PublicWilcox County99.2%41 - 041TreutlenA Public
20.90A PublicWarren County91.8%28 - 622Wilkinson CountyA Public
19.80A PrivateMount Paran Christian94.9%28 - 028WalkerA Private
19.78AAAAStephenson99.6%39 - 039Druid HillsAAAA
19.51AAATattnall County77.2%27 - 1413Long CountyAAA
19.36A PublicWashington-Wilkes99.1%38 - 038Towns CountyA Public
18.99AAAAAStone Mountain86.7%30 - 1416Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAAA
17.84A PublicBowdon97.7%35 - 035ArmucheeA Public
17.79AAAAJenkins98.5%37 - 037SavannahAAA
16.76AAAAHampton86.7%27 - 918North ClaytonAAAA
16.04AAAAAAKennesaw Mountain99.2%40 - 040OsborneAAAAAA
16.01GISA AABriarwood Academy83.9%27 - 1215Edmund Burke AcademyGISA AA
15.55A PublicMiller County94.0%31 - 625Randolph-ClayA Public
14.15AAAAALithia Springs98.9%41 - 041North SpringsAAAAA
13.46A PrivateMount Pisgah Christian98.7%42 - 636St. FrancisA Private
12.61A PublicGeorgia Military College76.1%27 - 1611ACE CharterA Public
11.40GISA AAACreekside Christian93.8%35 - 1322Bethlehem Christian AcademyGISA AAA
10.59A PublicSocial Circle94.4%35 - 1025Greene CountyA Public
9.37A PublicPortal74.0%28 - 208Bryan CountyA Public
8.41AAABeach89.3%27 - 720GrovesAAA
6.88AAAAAClarke Central100.0%49 - 049Johnson (Gainesville)AAAAA
4.32GISA AAAFrederica Academy99.2%41 - 041Trinity Christian (Dublin)GISA AAA
3.25AAJosey82.7%28 - 1513Glenn HillsAA
2.87A PublicBaconton Charter53.2%17 - 161Pataula CharterA Public
-1.60A PublicSchley County99.6%41 - 041Central (Talbotton)A Public
-3.47AAAWest Hall99.3%40 - 040Lumpkin CountyAAA
-4.73A PublicHancock Central99.8%45 - 045Crawford CountyA Public
-9.19GISA AAThomas Jefferson98.1%34 - 034Augusta PrepGISA AA
-17.58GISA AAMemorial Day96.3%43 - 2023Robert Toombs AcademyGISA AA

Nov 21

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
66.15AAAAAARiver Ridge80.0%28 - 1612CambridgeAAAAAA
64.39AAAAAAAMcEachern82.4%28 - 1414PebblebrookAAAAAAA
62.76AAAAAAShiloh55.2%21 - 210Habersham CentralAAAAAA
52.77AAAACarver (Columbus)88.3%31 - 1417TroupAAAA
46.10A PublicAtkinson County67.5%27 - 216Charlton CountyA Public
42.07AAAAAASequoyah92.9%32 - 725CentennialAAAAAA
35.98AAModel78.9%24 - 1311Gordon CentralAA

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