Maxwell Preseason Summary: New coaches take over powerhouses

Franklin Stephens was hired at McEachern from Ware County.
Franklin Stephens was hired at McEachern from Ware County.

Credit: Phil Skinner

Credit: Phil Skinner

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 422 teams throughout the 2019 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

• In spite of new coaches, Colquitt County and Grayson both top the ratings, which are based solely on each team’s historical performance and do not take into account such personnel changes. Cartersville, Cedar Grove, and Clinch County all enter the season as the top rated teams with new coaches at the helm as well.

» New coaches by class: Class AAAAAAA | Class AAAAAA | Class AAAAA | Class AAAA | Class AAA | Class AA | Class A

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 100.00%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 0 of 0 total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within --.-- points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.24

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Colquitt County0-095.231Lee County0-085.31
2Grayson0-088.492Northside (Warner Robins)0-071.69
3Archer0-085.403Valdosta0-069.42
4Lowndes0-084.344Coffee0-065.82
5North Gwinnett0-083.005Dacula0-064.24
6Parkview0-081.576Allatoona0-063.95
7McEachern0-080.697Glynn Academy0-063.74
8Milton0-080.448Harrison0-061.69
9Tift County0-078.979Creekview0-061.04
10Walton0-077.9410Mays0-058.97
11Mill Creek0-077.8111Tucker0-056.85
12Hillgrove0-077.7812Sequoyah0-056.64
13Roswell0-072.6413Lanier0-055.56
14Norcross0-071.0714Dalton0-054.54
15Camden County0-069.6315Effingham County0-051.76
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Rome0-083.261Cartersville0-083.76
2Buford0-078.942Blessed Trinity0-082.81
3Warner Robins0-076.463Marist0-076.76
4Stockbridge0-072.324Mary Persons0-072.23
5Jones County0-066.215St. Pius X0-069.57
6Dutchtown0-065.756Troup0-066.10
7Bainbridge0-065.317Burke County0-058.75
8Ware County0-061.218Sandy Creek0-058.12
9Kell0-060.689Ridgeland0-056.96
10Carrollton0-060.3910Cairo0-056.73
11Wayne County0-060.1811Cedartown0-056.69
12Clarke Central0-052.6912Thomson0-056.64
13Veterans0-052.2513Flowery Branch0-055.29
14Griffin0-051.5714Woodward Academy0-054.06
15East Paulding0-051.5215Eastside0-053.26
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove0-076.221Heard County0-065.86
2Peach County0-072.732Callaway0-062.86
3Benedictine0-069.643Brooks County0-062.52
4Calhoun0-068.974Hapeville Charter0-062.36
5Greater Atlanta Christian0-067.115Rabun County0-061.35
6Westminster (Atlanta)0-061.136Rockmart0-061.21
7Monroe Area0-058.917Fitzgerald0-060.35
8Jefferson0-057.378Dodge County0-056.31
9Lovett0-057.189Thomasville0-055.68
10Pace Academy0-055.8710Dublin0-053.87
11Pierce County0-055.3811Washington County0-053.32
12Crisp County0-052.7912Jefferson County0-052.27
13Dawson County0-051.1713Bremen0-051.36
14Westside (Macon)0-049.8014Vidalia0-049.24
15Liberty County0-049.3215Swainsboro0-046.98
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Clinch County0-061.411Eagle's Landing Christian0-071.57
2Irwin County0-059.842Athens Academy0-054.96
3Marion County0-045.283Prince Avenue Christian0-052.49
4Mount Zion (Carroll)0-043.764Calvary Day0-045.19
5Commerce0-043.185Savannah Christian0-043.27
6Emanuel County Institute0-042.476Wesleyan0-043.16
7Pelham0-040.987Mount Paran Christian0-040.09
8Charlton County0-040.658Darlington0-038.57
9Schley County0-035.829Fellowship Christian0-035.56
10Macon County0-035.7710George Walton Academy0-035.43
11Mitchell County0-035.6911Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)0-032.76
12Manchester0-034.1812Mount Vernon Presbyterian0-031.50
13Dooly County0-033.7513Aquinas0-031.46
14Turner County0-032.2714Hebron Christian Academy0-030.86
15Trion0-031.5215Stratford Academy0-028.69

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating SchStr Rank
1 [1]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA0-095.230.0078 [48]
2 [2]Grayson8 - AAAAAAA0-088.490.00141 [48]
3 [3]Archer8 - AAAAAAA0-085.400.0011 [48]
4 [1]Lee County1 - AAAAAA0-085.310.00207 [58]
5 [4]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA0-084.340.00217 [48]
6 [1]Cartersville5 - AAAA0-083.760.0050 [54]
7 [1]Rome7 - AAAAA0-083.260.00317 [56]
8 [5]North Gwinnett6 - AAAAAAA0-083.000.00267 [48]
9 [2]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAA0-082.810.0028 [54]
10 [6]Parkview7 - AAAAAAA0-081.570.00286 [48]
11 [7]McEachern3 - AAAAAAA0-080.690.00230 [48]
12 [8]Milton5 - AAAAAAA0-080.440.00239 [48]
13 [9]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA0-078.970.00368 [48]
14 [2]Buford8 - AAAAA0-078.940.0038 [56]
15 [10]Walton4 - AAAAAAA0-077.940.00388 [48]
16 [11]Mill Creek6 - AAAAAAA0-077.810.00236 [48]
17 [12]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA0-077.780.00166 [48]
18 [3]Marist7 - AAAA0-076.760.00226 [54]
19 [3]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA0-076.460.00390 [56]
20 [1]Cedar Grove5 - AAA0-076.220.0054 [56]
21 [2]Peach County4 - AAA0-072.730.00289 [56]
22 [13]Roswell4 - AAAAAAA0-072.640.00318 [48]
23 [4]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA0-072.320.00353 [56]
24 [4]Mary Persons2 - AAAA0-072.230.00227 [54]
25 [2]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA0-071.690.00276 [58]
26 [1]Eagle's Landing Christian5 - A0-071.570.00109 [38]
27 [14]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA0-071.070.00261 [48]
28 [3]Benedictine3 - AAA0-069.640.0024 [56]
29 [15]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA0-069.630.0047 [48]
30 [5]St. Pius X8 - AAAA0-069.570.00347 [54]
31 [3]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA0-069.420.00382 [58]
32 [16]Brookwood7 - AAAAAAA0-069.310.0035 [48]
33 [4]Calhoun6 - AAA0-068.970.0042 [56]
34 [17]Westlake2 - AAAAAAA0-067.750.00400 [48]
35 [18]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA0-067.450.00224 [48]
36 [5]Greater Atlanta Christian7 - AAA0-067.110.00142 [56]
37 [5]Jones County4 - AAAAA0-066.210.00185 [56]
38 [6]Troup5 - AAAA0-066.100.00375 [54]
39 [1]Heard County5 - AA0-065.860.00160 [59]
40 [4]Coffee1 - AAAAAA0-065.820.0076 [58]
41 [19]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA0-065.810.00271 [48]
42 [6]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA0-065.750.00107 [56]
43 [20]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA0-065.410.00264 [48]
44 [7]Bainbridge1 - AAAAA0-065.310.0019 [56]
45 [21]West Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA0-064.300.00397 [48]
46 [5]Dacula8 - AAAAAA0-064.240.0090 [58]
47 [6]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA0-063.950.004 [58]
48 [7]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA0-063.740.00137 [58]
49 [22]Mountain View6 - AAAAAAA0-063.650.00254 [48]
50 [2]Callaway5 - AA0-062.860.0044 [59]
51 [3]Brooks County1 - AA0-062.520.0033 [59]
52 [4]Hapeville Charter6 - AA0-062.360.00152 [59]
53 [23]South Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA0-061.830.00336 [48]
54 [8]Harrison6 - AAAAAA0-061.690.00157 [58]
55 [1]Clinch County2 - A0-061.410.0074 [50]
56 [5]Rabun County8 - AA0-061.350.00304 [59]
57 [6]Rockmart7 - AA0-061.210.00316 [59]
58 [8]Ware County2 - AAAAA0-061.210.00389 [56]
59 [6]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA0-061.130.00401 [56]
60 [9]Creekview6 - AAAAAA0-061.040.0086 [58]
61 [9]Kell7 - AAAAA0-060.680.00189 [56]
62 [10]Carrollton7 - AAAAA0-060.390.0049 [56]
63 [7]Fitzgerald1 - AA0-060.350.00126 [59]
64 [11]Wayne County2 - AAAAA0-060.180.00395 [56]
65 [2]Irwin County2 - A0-059.840.00172 [50]
66 [10]Mays5 - AAAAAA0-058.970.00229 [58]
67 [7]Monroe Area8 - AAA0-058.910.00243 [56]
68 [7]Burke County3 - AAAA0-058.750.0039 [54]
69 [24]Etowah4 - AAAAAAA0-058.410.00120 [48]
70 [8]Sandy Creek5 - AAAA0-058.120.00321 [54]
71 [8]Jefferson8 - AAA0-057.370.00177 [56]
72 [9]Lovett5 - AAA0-057.180.00216 [56]
73 [25]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA0-057.160.00111 [48]
74 [9]Ridgeland6 - AAAA0-056.960.00309 [54]
75 [11]Tucker4 - AAAAAA0-056.850.00376 [58]
76 [10]Cairo1 - AAAA0-056.730.0041 [54]
77 [11]Cedartown5 - AAAA0-056.690.0056 [54]
78 [12]Sequoyah6 - AAAAAA0-056.640.00328 [58]
79 [12]Thomson3 - AAAA0-056.640.00367 [54]
80 [26]Newton8 - AAAAAAA0-056.570.00260 [48]
81 [8]Dodge County3 - AA0-056.310.0097 [59]
82 [10]Pace Academy5 - AAA0-055.870.00284 [56]
83 [9]Thomasville1 - AA0-055.680.00366 [59]
84 [27]Collins Hill6 - AAAAAAA0-055.590.0077 [48]
85 [13]Lanier8 - AAAAAA0-055.560.00204 [58]
86 [11]Pierce County2 - AAA0-055.380.00296 [56]
87 [28]Woodstock4 - AAAAAAA0-055.320.00416 [48]
88 [13]Flowery Branch7 - AAAA0-055.290.00127 [54]
89 [2]Athens Academy8 - A0-054.960.0013 [38]
90 [14]Dalton6 - AAAAAA0-054.540.0092 [58]
91 [29]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA0-054.140.00259 [48]
92 [14]Woodward Academy4 - AAAA0-054.060.00417 [54]
93 [10]Dublin3 - AA0-053.870.00104 [59]
94 [30]Central Gwinnett7 - AAAAAAA0-053.690.0061 [48]
95 [11]Washington County3 - AA0-053.320.00393 [59]
96 [15]Eastside4 - AAAA0-053.260.00116 [54]
97 [12]Crisp County1 - AAA0-052.790.0087 [56]
98 [12]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA0-052.690.0071 [56]
99 [3]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A0-052.490.00301 [38]
100 [12]Jefferson County4 - AA0-052.270.00178 [59]
101 [13]Veterans1 - AAAAA0-052.250.00383 [56]
102 [31]South Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA0-052.140.00337 [48]
103 [15]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA0-051.760.00117 [58]
104 [14]Griffin3 - AAAAA0-051.570.00146 [56]
105 [15]East Paulding7 - AAAAA0-051.520.00115 [56]
106 [16]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA0-051.390.00100 [58]
107 [13]Bremen5 - AA0-051.360.0032 [59]
108 [13]Dawson County7 - AAA0-051.170.0094 [56]
109 [17]Stephenson4 - AAAAAA0-050.910.00351 [58]
110 [16]Baldwin3 - AAAA0-050.640.0020 [54]
111 [17]Upson-Lee2 - AAAA0-050.610.00381 [54]
112 [18]Centennial7 - AAAAAA0-050.540.0057 [58]
113 [16]Starr's Mill3 - AAAAA0-050.440.00348 [56]
114 [17]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA0-050.360.00212 [56]
115 [32]Cherokee4 - AAAAAAA0-050.090.0068 [48]
116 [18]Pickens6 - AAAA0-050.010.00295 [54]
117 [33]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA0-049.940.00291 [48]
118 [19]Alpharetta7 - AAAAAA0-049.910.005 [58]
119 [14]Westside (Macon)4 - AAA0-049.800.00404 [56]
120 [19]West Laurens2 - AAAA0-049.730.00399 [54]
121 [20]Oconee County8 - AAAA0-049.480.00279 [54]
122 [15]Liberty County2 - AAA0-049.320.00208 [56]
123 [14]Vidalia2 - AA0-049.240.00384 [59]
124 [20]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA0-049.220.00308 [58]
125 [21]Houston County1 - AAAAAA0-049.110.00169 [58]
126 [18]Thomas County Central1 - AAAAA0-049.010.00365 [56]
127 [34]Wheeler2 - AAAAAAA0-049.000.00405 [48]
128 [35]Lassiter4 - AAAAAAA0-048.480.00206 [48]
129 [22]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA0-048.320.00181 [58]
130 [21]Stephens County8 - AAAA0-048.230.00350 [54]
131 [22]North Oconee8 - AAAA0-048.170.00270 [54]
132 [23]Chapel Hill5 - AAAA0-048.160.0063 [54]
133 [36]Kennesaw Mountain3 - AAAAAAA0-047.910.00191 [48]
134 [23]Northgate5 - AAAAAA0-047.560.00274 [58]
135 [24]Creekside5 - AAAAAA0-047.220.0085 [58]
136 [25]Hughes5 - AAAAAA0-047.120.00171 [58]
137 [15]Swainsboro2 - AA0-046.980.00357 [59]
138 [24]Carver (Columbus)1 - AAAA0-046.210.0052 [54]
139 [37]North Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA0-045.970.00266 [48]
140 [26]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA0-045.900.0036 [58]
141 [19]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAAA0-045.560.0055 [56]
142 [27]Alexander5 - AAAAAA0-045.400.003 [58]
143 [25]Howard2 - AAAA0-045.360.00170 [54]
144 [3]Marion County4 - A0-045.280.00225 [50]
145 [4]Calvary Day3 - A0-045.190.0045 [38]
146 [16]North Hall7 - AAA0-045.130.00268 [56]
147 [38]Lambert5 - AAAAAAA0-045.100.00201 [48]
148 [17]Jenkins3 - AAA0-044.530.00179 [56]
149 [20]Banneker6 - AAAAA0-044.230.0022 [56]
150 [26]Perry2 - AAAA0-044.100.00294 [54]
151 [28]Gainesville8 - AAAAAA0-044.050.00131 [58]
152 [21]Loganville8 - AAAAA0-043.850.00213 [56]
153 [18]Jackson4 - AAA0-043.810.00174 [56]
154 [4]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A0-043.760.00252 [50]
155 [22]Harris County1 - AAAAA0-043.740.00156 [56]
156 [23]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA0-043.520.00342 [56]
157 [39]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA0-043.280.00234 [48]
158 [5]Savannah Christian3 - A0-043.270.00323 [38]
159 [5]Commerce8 - A0-043.180.0081 [50]
160 [6]Wesleyan5 - A0-043.160.00396 [38]
161 [29]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA0-042.870.00412 [58]
162 [30]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA0-042.650.0030 [58]
163 [6]Emanuel County Institute3 - A0-042.470.00119 [50]
164 [16]Elbert County8 - AA0-042.050.00118 [59]
165 [24]Villa Rica7 - AAAAA0-041.900.00385 [56]
166 [31]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA0-041.860.00149 [58]
167 [32]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA0-041.760.00215 [58]
168 [25]Carver (Atlanta)6 - AAAAA0-041.760.0051 [56]
169 [26]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA0-041.530.00415 [56]
170 [27]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA0-041.340.00108 [56]
171 [27]Spalding2 - AAAA0-041.240.00343 [54]
172 [28]West Hall7 - AAAA0-040.990.00398 [54]
173 [7]Pelham1 - A0-040.980.00292 [50]
174 [28]Hiram7 - AAAAA0-040.950.00167 [56]
175 [33]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA0-040.760.00148 [58]
176 [40]Forsyth Central5 - AAAAAAA0-040.710.00129 [48]
177 [29]White County7 - AAAA0-040.690.00407 [54]
178 [8]Charlton County2 - A0-040.650.0064 [50]
179 [41]Peachtree Ridge6 - AAAAAAA0-040.570.00290 [48]
180 [34]Evans3 - AAAAAA0-040.540.00121 [58]
181 [35]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA0-040.420.00345 [58]
182 [19]Appling County2 - AAA0-040.290.008 [56]
183 [20]Pike County4 - AAA0-040.150.00297 [56]
184 [17]Douglass6 - AA0-040.090.00101 [59]
185 [7]Mount Paran Christian6 - A0-040.090.00249 [38]
186 [29]Statesboro2 - AAAAA0-039.870.00349 [56]
187 [30]Arabia Mountain5 - AAAAA0-039.650.0010 [56]
188 [31]New Hampstead2 - AAAAA0-039.110.00257 [56]
189 [32]Riverwood6 - AAAAA0-039.100.00314 [56]
190 [33]Union Grove4 - AAAAA0-039.050.00380 [56]
191 [18]Screven County4 - AA0-038.750.00326 [59]
192 [8]Darlington6 - A0-038.570.0093 [38]
193 [42]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA0-038.380.0048 [48]
194 [30]Richmond Academy3 - AAAA0-037.910.00307 [54]
195 [21]Morgan County8 - AAA0-037.700.00246 [56]
196 [31]Americus-Sumter1 - AAAA0-037.340.006 [54]
197 [36]Heritage (Conyers)3 - AAAAAA0-037.330.00164 [58]
198 [22]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA0-037.290.00339 [56]
199 [32]Columbus1 - AAAA0-036.520.0080 [54]
200 [34]Ola4 - AAAAA0-036.470.00281 [56]
201 [23]Cook1 - AAA0-036.320.0082 [56]
202 [19]Early County1 - AA0-036.260.00110 [59]
203 [20]Pepperell7 - AA0-036.240.00293 [59]
204 [33]Northside (Columbus)1 - AAAA0-036.150.00275 [54]
205 [37]Pope7 - AAAAAA0-035.980.00299 [58]
206 [21]Bleckley County3 - AA0-035.930.0027 [59]
207 [22]Union County8 - AA0-035.910.00379 [59]
208 [43]Shiloh8 - AAAAAAA0-035.890.00330 [48]
209 [9]Schley County4 - A0-035.820.00325 [50]
210 [10]Macon County4 - A0-035.770.00221 [50]
211 [11]Mitchell County1 - A0-035.690.00240 [50]
212 [34]Salem4 - AAAA0-035.650.00320 [54]
213 [35]Paulding County7 - AAAAA0-035.620.00288 [56]
214 [35]Hardaway1 - AAAA0-035.570.00154 [54]
215 [9]Fellowship Christian6 - A0-035.560.00124 [38]
216 [10]George Walton Academy8 - A0-035.430.00132 [38]
217 [36]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA0-035.390.00186 [56]
218 [23]Chattooga7 - AA0-035.320.0067 [59]
219 [36]Westover1 - AAAA0-035.300.00402 [54]
220 [38]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA0-035.040.0046 [58]
221 [39]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA0-034.850.00197 [58]
222 [37]Heritage (Ringgold)6 - AAAA0-034.760.00165 [54]
223 [38]LaGrange5 - AAAA0-034.350.00195 [54]
224 [12]Manchester4 - A0-034.180.00223 [50]
225 [39]Northwest Whitfield6 - AAAA0-034.060.00278 [54]
226 [40]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA0-034.040.00334 [58]
227 [24]Southwest3 - AA0-033.980.00341 [59]
228 [24]Hart County8 - AAA0-033.920.00158 [56]
229 [13]Dooly County4 - A0-033.750.0098 [50]
230 [37]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA0-033.560.00228 [56]
231 [41]Greenbrier3 - AAAAAA0-033.520.00143 [58]
232 [38]South Effingham2 - AAAAA0-033.360.00335 [56]
233 [25]Jeff Davis2 - AA0-033.360.00176 [59]
234 [26]Berrien1 - AA0-033.030.0026 [59]
235 [27]Toombs County2 - AA0-032.980.00369 [59]
236 [40]Central (Carrollton)5 - AAAA0-032.890.0058 [54]
237 [11]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)5 - A0-032.760.00422 [38]
238 [41]Madison County8 - AAAA0-032.650.00222 [54]
239 [14]Turner County2 - A0-032.270.00377 [50]
240 [44]Rockdale County8 - AAAAAAA0-032.270.00315 [48]
241 [42]Northview7 - AAAAAA0-031.580.00277 [58]
242 [15]Trion6 - A0-031.520.00374 [50]
243 [12]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A0-031.500.00251 [38]
244 [13]Aquinas7 - A0-031.460.009 [38]
245 [28]Northeast3 - AA0-031.460.00273 [59]
246 [25]North Murray6 - AAA0-031.380.00269 [56]
247 [39]Riverdale3 - AAAAA0-031.220.00312 [56]
248 [29]Spencer5 - AA0-031.200.00344 [59]
249 [40]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA0-030.880.00387 [56]
250 [14]Hebron Christian Academy8 - A0-030.860.00161 [38]
251 [26]Central (Macon)4 - AAA0-030.650.0059 [56]
252 [45]Duluth6 - AAAAAAA0-030.630.00105 [48]
253 [27]Ringgold6 - AAA0-030.610.00310 [56]
254 [43]Drew4 - AAAAAA0-030.420.00102 [58]
255 [41]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA0-030.260.00414 [56]
256 [30]Washington6 - AA0-030.090.00392 [59]
257 [44]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA0-029.550.00338 [58]
258 [45]New Manchester5 - AAAAAA0-029.540.00258 [58]
259 [42]Denmark7 - AAAA0-029.480.00421 [54]
260 [46]Mundy's Mill4 - AAAAAA0-029.060.00255 [58]
261 [47]Apalachee8 - AAAAAA0-028.990.007 [58]
262 [16]Telfair County2 - A0-028.890.00361 [50]
263 [15]Stratford Academy7 - A0-028.690.00355 [38]
264 [28]Monroe1 - AAA0-028.620.00242 [56]
265 [48]Tri-Cities5 - AAAAAA0-028.420.00373 [58]
266 [31]Hephzibah4 - AA0-028.310.00163 [59]
267 [29]Adairsville6 - AAA0-028.010.001 [56]
268 [32]Harlem4 - AA0-027.460.00155 [59]
269 [33]Metter2 - AA0-027.420.00235 [59]
270 [42]McIntosh3 - AAAAA0-027.110.00231 [56]
271 [16]North Cobb Christian6 - A0-027.080.00265 [38]
272 [43]Lithonia5 - AAAAA0-026.890.00211 [56]
273 [44]Cass7 - AAAAA0-026.780.0053 [56]
274 [34]Bacon County2 - AA0-026.680.0017 [59]
275 [45]Whitewater3 - AAAAA0-026.600.00409 [56]
276 [17]Greene County7 - A0-026.550.00144 [50]
277 [17]Holy Innocents5 - A0-026.430.00168 [38]
278 [30]Windsor Forest3 - AAA0-026.420.00413 [56]
279 [18]Tattnall Square7 - A0-026.190.00359 [38]
280 [49]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA0-025.920.0065 [58]
281 [31]Franklin County8 - AAA0-025.870.00130 [56]
282 [18]Taylor County4 - A0-025.810.00360 [50]
283 [50]North Atlanta7 - AAAAAA0-025.750.00262 [58]
284 [51]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA0-025.540.002 [58]
285 [19]Savannah Country Day3 - A0-025.200.00324 [38]
286 [32]Sonoraville6 - AAA0-025.170.00332 [56]
287 [20]Brookstone4 - A0-025.130.0034 [38]
288 [33]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA0-024.960.00199 [56]
289 [43]Hampton4 - AAAA0-024.680.00150 [54]
290 [35]Coosa7 - AA0-024.590.0083 [59]
291 [21]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A0-024.010.00250 [38]
292 [34]Tattnall County2 - AAA0-024.010.00358 [56]
293 [52]River Ridge6 - AAAAAA0-023.780.00311 [58]
294 [53]M.L. King4 - AAAAAA0-023.760.00220 [58]
295 [46]Decatur6 - AAAAA0-023.560.0095 [56]
296 [54]Morrow4 - AAAAAA0-023.560.00247 [58]
297 [35]Jackson County8 - AAA0-023.540.00175 [56]
298 [22]Whitefield Academy6 - A0-023.420.00408 [38]
299 [46]Discovery6 - AAAAAAA0-023.280.0096 [48]
300 [47]North Springs6 - AAAAA0-023.150.00272 [56]
301 [36]South Atlanta6 - AA0-022.970.00333 [59]
302 [19]Miller County1 - A0-022.600.00237 [50]
303 [20]Lincoln County7 - A0-022.590.00209 [50]
304 [44]Shaw1 - AAAA0-022.540.00329 [54]
305 [21]Montgomery County3 - A0-022.510.00244 [50]
306 [23]Mount de Sales7 - A0-022.430.00248 [38]
307 [48]Columbia5 - AAAAA0-021.940.0079 [56]
308 [36]Haralson County6 - AAA0-021.830.00153 [56]
309 [49]Fayette County3 - AAAAA0-021.800.00123 [56]
310 [22]Wilcox County2 - A0-021.790.00410 [50]
311 [50]Miller Grove5 - AAAAA0-021.620.00238 [56]
312 [45]McDonough4 - AAAA0-021.580.00162 [54]
313 [23]Chattahoochee County1 - A0-021.020.0066 [50]
314 [24]Christian Heritage6 - A0-020.980.0070 [38]
315 [24]Washington-Wilkes7 - A0-020.670.00394 [50]
316 [25]First Presbyterian7 - A0-020.570.00125 [38]
317 [37]Lamar County5 - AA0-020.370.00200 [59]
318 [38]Laney4 - AA0-020.320.00203 [59]
319 [39]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - AA0-020.280.0016 [59]
320 [55]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)4 - AAAAAA0-020.110.00253 [58]
321 [37]East Hall7 - AAA0-020.110.00112 [56]
322 [46]Cross Creek3 - AAAA0-019.940.0088 [54]
323 [25]Jenkins County3 - A0-019.850.00180 [50]
324 [51]Grady6 - AAAAA0-019.650.00140 [56]
325 [26]Riverside Military Academy8 - A0-019.490.00313 [38]
326 [47]Luella4 - AAAA0-019.460.00218 [54]
327 [56]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAA0-019.400.00106 [58]
328 [48]Chestatee7 - AAAA0-018.980.0069 [54]
329 [40]Butler4 - AA0-018.940.0040 [59]
330 [26]Claxton3 - A0-018.830.0073 [50]
331 [38]Beach3 - AAA0-018.480.0023 [56]
332 [39]Brantley County2 - AAA0-017.580.0031 [56]
333 [49]Southeast Whitfield6 - AAAA0-017.490.00340 [54]
334 [27]Atkinson County2 - A0-017.370.0015 [50]
335 [40]Worth County1 - AAA0-017.090.00418 [56]
336 [47]Lakeside (Atlanta)7 - AAAAAAA0-016.530.00196 [48]
337 [41]Glenn Hills4 - AA0-016.260.00136 [59]
338 [42]Banks County8 - AA0-016.090.0021 [59]
339 [27]Strong Rock Christian5 - A0-015.450.00356 [38]
340 [50]Dougherty1 - AAAA0-015.190.0099 [54]
341 [28]Johnson County3 - A0-014.700.00184 [50]
342 [29]Hancock Central7 - A0-014.670.00151 [50]
343 [52]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA0-014.590.00182 [56]
344 [51]North Clayton4 - AAAA0-014.530.00263 [54]
345 [28]Pinecrest Academy6 - A0-014.520.00298 [38]
346 [43]Monticello8 - AA0-014.280.00245 [59]
347 [30]McIntosh County Academy3 - A0-014.140.00232 [50]
348 [57]Forest Park4 - AAAAAA0-014.140.00128 [58]
349 [29]St. Francis6 - A0-014.010.00346 [38]
350 [41]Islands3 - AAA0-013.950.00173 [56]
351 [30]Athens Christian8 - A0-013.280.0014 [38]
352 [31]Seminole County1 - A0-013.160.00327 [50]
353 [52]LaFayette6 - AAAA0-013.140.00194 [54]
354 [42]Fannin County7 - AAA0-012.540.00122 [56]
355 [44]Therrell6 - AA0-012.490.00364 [59]
356 [32]Bowdon6 - A0-012.440.0029 [50]
357 [43]Lumpkin County7 - AAA0-09.610.00219 [56]
358 [33]Gordon Lee6 - A0-09.270.00139 [50]
359 [45]Bryan County2 - AA0-09.060.0037 [59]
360 [46]Model7 - AA0-08.870.00241 [59]
361 [53]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA0-08.640.00210 [56]
362 [47]Temple5 - AA0-08.100.00362 [59]
363 [31]Walker6 - A0-07.870.00386 [38]
364 [48]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA0-07.650.00193 [59]
365 [49]Putnam County8 - AA0-07.430.00303 [59]
366 [34]Towns County8 - A0-07.320.00371 [50]
367 [50]Jordan5 - AA0-07.090.00187 [59]
368 [44]Redan5 - AAA0-06.770.00306 [56]
369 [51]East Laurens3 - AA0-06.420.00114 [59]
370 [35]Hawkinsville4 - A0-06.220.00159 [50]
371 [36]Terrell County1 - A0-05.880.00363 [50]
372 [52]McNair6 - AA0-05.770.00233 [59]
373 [37]Warren County7 - A0-05.080.00391 [50]
374 [38]Wilkinson County7 - A0-04.510.00411 [50]
375 [32]Landmark Christian5 - A0-04.300.00202 [38]
376 [53]Dade County7 - AA0-03.200.0091 [59]
377 [33]Our Lady of Mercy5 - A0-03.140.00283 [38]
378 [54]Gordon Central7 - AA0-02.820.00138 [59]
379 [34]Lakeview Academy8 - A0-02.360.00198 [38]
380 [55]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA0-02.180.00403 [59]
381 [45]Long County2 - AAA0-02.130.00214 [56]
382 [35]Providence Christian8 - A0-01.670.00302 [38]
383 [36]King's Ridge Christian6 - A0-01.380.00192 [38]
384 [46]Savannah3 - AAA0-01.200.00322 [56]
385 [47]Kendrick4 - AAA0-01.020.00190 [56]
386 [56]Social Circle8 - AA0-01.000.00331 [59]
387 [39]Portal3 - A0-00.830.00300 [50]
388 [57]Armuchee7 - AA0-00.070.0012 [59]
389 [40]Lanier County2 - A0-0-0.010.00205 [50]
390 [48]Murray County6 - AAA0-0-0.470.00256 [56]
391 [48]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA0-0-0.800.0025 [48]
392 [53]Druid Hills4 - AAAA0-0-1.080.00103 [54]
393 [54]Chamblee5 - AAAAA0-0-1.730.0062 [56]
394 [41]Calhoun County1 - A0-0-1.790.0043 [50]
395 [49]Towers5 - AAA0-0-2.010.00370 [56]
396 [58]Josey4 - AA0-0-2.050.00188 [59]
397 [50]Stone Mountain5 - AAA0-0-2.410.00354 [56]
398 [51]Rutland4 - AAA0-0-2.420.00319 [56]
399 [42]Greenville4 - A0-0-2.810.00145 [50]
400 [52]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA0-0-3.550.00183 [56]
401 [53]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA0-0-5.580.0075 [56]
402 [43]Treutlen3 - A0-0-5.600.00372 [50]
403 [58]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-0-5.910.00282 [58]
404 [54]Groves3 - AAA0-0-7.420.00147 [56]
405 [37]Georgia Military College7 - A0-0-7.700.00133 [38]
406 [55]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA0-0-7.950.00420 [56]
407 [56]East Jackson8 - AAA0-0-8.210.00113 [56]
408 [38]Pacelli4 - A0-0-8.940.00285 [38]
409 [54]Gilmer6 - AAAA0-0-11.360.00134 [54]
410 [44]Baconton Charter1 - A0-0-12.730.0018 [50]
411 [45]Wheeler County3 - A0-0-13.720.00406 [50]
412 [46]Crawford County4 - A0-0-13.770.0084 [50]
413 [59]Oglethorpe County8 - AA0-0-17.770.00280 [59]
414 [47]Stewart County1 - A0-0-21.200.00352 [50]
415 [48]Twiggs County7 - A0-0-22.740.00378 [50]
416 [55]Clarkston5 - AAAAA†0-0-23.480.0072 [56]
417 [49]Central (Talbotton)4 - A0-0-23.880.0060 [50]
418 [50]Randolph-Clay1 - A0-0-30.280.00305 [50]
419 [1]ACE Charter7 - A†0-0-39.660.00419 [3]
420 [2]Glascock County7 - A†0-0-47.840.00135 [3]
421 [3]Pataula Charter1 - A†0-0-50.980.00287 [3]
422 [56]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA†0-0-73.280.0089 [56]
† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating,” which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA91.8581.97
28 - AAAAAAA83.0656.46
31 - AAAAAA80.8868.54
43 - AAAAAAA80.5567.94
56 - AAAAAAA77.5153.61
67 - AAAAAAA75.7552.52
77 - AAAA75.5247.29
84 - AAAAAAA74.5959.94
95 - AAAA74.3353.82
105 - AAAAAAA72.8855.58
117 - AAAAA71.4846.46
121 - AAAAA70.7856.74
134 - AAAAA69.7950.93
145 - AAA68.4742.25
158 - AAAAA66.7043.71
166 - AAAAAA66.0447.11
172 - AAAAAAA65.0852.68
182 - AAAA64.4149.58
198 - AAAA62.7749.22
201 - AA62.6750.12
215 - AA61.5134.34
222 - AAAAAA60.9950.41
234 - AAA60.8435.81
248 - AAAAAA60.1546.08
252 - AAAAA59.8146.34
265 - AAAAAA58.7943.05
273 - AAAA58.7546.18
287 - AAA56.9926.52
292 - A56.7032.14
303 - AA56.6640.11
315 - A56.3926.81
328 - AAA55.1534.06
333 - AAA54.5120.12
341 - AAAA52.6035.80
356 - AAA52.5224.33
367 - AAAAAA52.4935.68
374 - AAAAAA51.9531.31
388 - A51.3825.48
 8-Div A - A51.8432.99
 8-Div B - A36.4420.14
396 - AAAA51.0529.26
402 - AAA51.0332.09
414 - AAAA50.1026.87
423 - AAAAA50.0534.31
436 - AA49.2723.13
448 - AA49.2118.59
457 - AA48.1419.37
462 - AA47.8932.55
471 - AAA46.1633.31
483 - AAAAAA45.9035.51
496 - AAAAA45.2229.46
506 - A44.9122.85
 6-Div A - A41.6826.27
 6-Div B - A37.2019.84
513 - A44.0319.25
 3-Div A - A42.1324.32
 3-Div B - A33.3413.87
524 - AA43.8222.19
534 - A43.4118.94
 4-Div B - A38.2623.66
 4-Div A - A37.7611.59
545 - AAAAA39.5026.21
557 - A35.2416.80
 7-Div B - A30.7117.09
 7-Div A - A29.1616.43
561 - A34.748.27

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.3209/27Colquitt CountyGrayson-7.9768.9%
87.5511/01Colquitt CountyLowndes-9.6572.4%
86.8610/18GraysonArcher-1.8554.6%
85.6408/24Colquitt CountyNorth Gwinnett-12.2377.3%
82.5609/06LowndesParkview-4.0159.9%
81.5009/27ArcherBuford-5.2362.8%
81.2310/18LowndesTift County-4.1360.2%
81.0009/27MiltonParkview-0.1150.3%
80.6109/13ArcherMill Creek-6.3665.4%
80.6010/25Colquitt CountyTift County-17.5085.2%
80.0110/11North GwinnettMill Creek-3.9659.8%
79.9009/20ParkviewTift County-3.8459.5%
79.6308/23MiltonBuford-1.5053.7%
79.5009/20North GwinnettWalton-6.3065.2%
79.2111/01Blessed TrinityMarist-4.8261.8%

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