Maxwell Week 7 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Sep 29

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
44.27AAASavannah Christian85.9%31-1417Long CountyAAA
43.11AAAALaGrange92.7%35-1322RiverdaleAAAA
18.19AAAAAArabia Mountain90.7%22-022LithoniaAAAAA
3.19AALandmark Christian95.9%28-028McNairAA
1.29AARedan95.6%26-026TowersAA
-15.36AAMount Paran Christian99.5%38-038B.E.S.T. AcademyAA
-23.00AASpencer99.7%41-041JordanAA

Sep 30

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
91.82AAAAAALee County53.8%27-261Houston CountyAAAAAA
78.25AAAAAAAWalton82.6%33-2013North PauldingAAAAAAA
74.50AAAAAARoswell70.9%24-1410Blessed TrinityAAAAAA
71.63AAAAACartersville74.2%28-1711CalhounAAAAA
71.57AAAAAAABuford91.3%26-026Collins HillAAAAAAA
70.72AAAAAAAParkview86.2%29-1316South GwinnettAAAAAAA
69.87A Division IIrwin County69.9%21-147SwainsboroA Division I
69.38AAAMonroe Area52.9%17-152Stephens CountyAAA
69.17AAAAAAAGrayson71.0%21-138NewtonAAAAAAA
68.13AAAABurke County72.0%25-1510Wayne CountyAAAA
67.90AAAPeach County63.1%28-217Carver (Atlanta)AAA
65.41AAAOconee County65.3%26-206Hebron ChristianAAA
65.32AAAAALoganville75.3%24-1410EastsideAAAAA
64.46AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett80.1%29-1712MeadowcreekAAAAAAA
64.43AAAAStarr's Mill70.2%21-147Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)AAAA
63.58AAPierce County83.4%28-1414Appling CountyAA
62.95AAAAAASouth Paulding69.6%26-188Paulding CountyAAAAAA
62.67AAAAAAABrookwood86.7%27-720ArcherAAAAAAA
62.62AAADougherty60.6%22-202Crisp CountyAAA
60.99AAAABenedictine88.4%31-1318New HampsteadAAAA
60.97A Division IPrince Avenue Christian91.9%32-725Mary PersonsAAA
60.94A Division IRabun County85.1%28-1315Fellowship ChristianAA
60.07AAAAAAAMountain View81.7%26-1016DaculaAAAAAAA
59.35AAAAAASequoyah76.4%26-1412River RidgeAAAAAA
59.13AAAAAAWoodward Academy93.4%35-1025LovejoyAAAAAA
58.55AAAAACreekside82.4%29-1415MaysAAAAA
57.97AAAACedartown97.2%35-035Central (Carrollton)AAAA
57.84AAAAAACreekview67.9%21-147EtowahAAAAAA
57.73AAAAPace Academy72.1%28-208HamptonAAAA
57.62AAAAAANorth Atlanta56.5%14-131St. Pius XAAAAAA
57.35AAAAACambridge79.0%26-1412Greater Atlanta ChristianAAAAA
56.98AAAAAFlowery Branch53.7%23-212Clarke CentralAAAAA
56.68AAAAAAEffingham County70.5%22-148Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
56.28AAAAADutchtown94.3%27-027Union GroveAAAAA
56.19AAAAAAThomas County Central98.0%38-038VeteransAAAAAA
55.56AACallaway61.9%19-145ColumbiaAA
55.53AAAAWestminster (Atlanta)70.8%21-129Holy InnocentsAAAA
55.16A Division ISt. Francis54.6%23-212BowdonA Division II
55.14AAAAAAAMill Creek99.7%48-048Central GwinnettAAAAAAA
54.87AAAAAAAlpharetta85.0%35-2015SprayberryAAAAAA
54.04AAAANorthwest Whitfield70.3%25-178SonoravilleAAAA
53.89AAAThomasville80.2%21-714MonroeAAA
53.60AAAAStephenson75.2%21-129Hapeville CharterAAAA
53.32AAAAALithia Springs54.0%28-271Villa RicaAAAAA
52.89AAAAAWarner Robins93.8%29-029OlaAAAAA
52.68AAAAAAEast Paulding51.0%27-261NewnanAAAAAA
52.41AAAAAAGainesville97.7%35-035LanierAAAAAA
51.04AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)96.5%34-034Tift CountyAAAAAA
51.01AAAAAAJonesboro53.3%21-201Mundy's MillAAAAAA
50.92AAADawson County63.2%28-235White CountyAAA
50.89AAAAAJefferson89.8%28-622Winder-BarrowAAAAA
50.78A Division IDublin53.7%17-143Charlton CountyA Division II
49.89AAAAPerry98.8%40-040Westside (Macon)AAAA
49.01AAAAAAHughes99.3%41-041AlexanderAAAAAA
48.51A Division IWhitefield Academy78.4%28-1711BrookstoneGIAA AAAA-AAA
48.50AAAAAAJackson County64.4%20-146Habersham CentralAAAAAA
48.31AAWorth County67.7%24-177Dodge CountyAA
48.28AAAAAJones County92.2%35-1322Eagle's LandingAAAAA
48.13AACook97.1%38-038Sumter CountyAA
46.81AAAAADalton74.6%28-208HiramAAAAA
46.79AAACalvary Day90.9%31-823Johnson (Savannah)AAA
45.67AAAAATucker72.0%28-208DecaturAAAAA
45.38AAAAAABrunswick94.0%35-728GrovetownAAAAAA
45.01AAAAAAJohns Creek58.7%20-146LassiterAAAAAA
44.90AAAASouthwest DeKalb73.9%28-1810Miller GroveAAAA
44.42AAALumpkin County84.3%26-719WesleyanAAA
43.93AAAAAAEvans74.0%22-139Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
43.87AAAASpalding88.0%35-1718GriffinAAAA
43.80AABerrien65.6%26-206Jeff DavisAA
43.74AAAAHoward58.1%20-146BaldwinAAAA
43.33AARockmart93.4%34-727ModelAA
42.85AAAAAASouth Effingham50.4%13-130Screven CountyA Division I
42.15AAAACherokee Bluff69.9%28-208Cedar ShoalsAAAA
42.11AAAAAAANorcross98.5%38-038DuluthAAAAAAA
41.79A Division IIAquinas63.5%27-216Lincoln CountyA Division II
41.72AAToombs County53.5%18-162Brantley CountyAA
41.62AAARinggold76.8%21-714BremenAAA
41.60AAAAWoodland (Stockbridge)59.1%16-142McDonoughAAAA
41.18AAAAAAMarist98.2%37-037DunwoodyAAAAAA
40.78A Division IElbert County92.8%36-1422Mount VernonA Division I
40.67AAAAAMcIntosh59.7%23-203Heard CountyA Division I
40.34AAAANorth Oconee98.6%34-034North HallAAAA
40.29A Division IIEmanuel County Institute64.1%26-206Jefferson CountyA Division I
39.37A Division IIManchester76.5%27-1413Macon CountyA Division II
39.34GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy92.2%35-1421Pinewood ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
39.26A Division ICommerce74.8%26-1412First PresbyterianGIAA AAAA-AAA
39.25A Division ITrion65.9%27-207Dade CountyA Division I
37.92GIAA AAAA-AAAStratford Academy83.0%28-1414Deerfield-WindsorGIAA AAAA-AAA
37.90A Division IPelham73.4%20-713Lanier CountyA Division II
37.39AAAALovett86.3%24-618LuellaAAAA
37.34A Division IISchley County89.4%27-027Chattahoochee CountyA Division II
37.22AALaney87.5%28-1018Washington CountyAA
37.04AAAAAAShiloh91.5%28-325ApalacheeAAAAAA
37.04AAAJackson88.6%23-023DouglassAAA
35.75A Division IMount Pisgah Christian89.6%28-721Mount Zion (Carroll)A Division II
35.65AAACarver (Columbus)94.9%35-827ColumbusAAA
35.41AABanks County70.7%20-911East JacksonAA
35.16A Division IBleckley County98.4%41-041Westfield SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
34.51A Division IIMcIntosh County Academy84.7%27-720Atkinson CountyA Division II
34.44AAAAACass88.3%27-621Woodland (Cartersville)AAAAA
34.40A Division IIMitchell County68.0%21-147Terrell CountyA Division II
33.62AAASandy Creek99.2%41-041Harris CountyAAAAA
33.27AAAMorgan County93.0%34-826Richmond AcademyAAA
33.15AAAAAAMorrow61.4%27-225AlcovyAAAAAA
32.45AAAAMadison County80.8%28-1414ChestateeAAAA
32.42AAAAATri-Cities57.2%14-86BannekerAAAAA
31.72A Division IIWashington-Wilkes74.5%24-1410Warren CountyA Division II
31.47A Division IBryan County59.1%20-155Montgomery CountyA Division II
31.41AAAAWhitewater98.6%35-035Fayette CountyAAAA
30.73A Division IIDooly County90.2%33-1320Wheeler CountyA Division II
30.46AAAAACentennial89.1%31-1219ChattahoocheeAAAAA
29.43AATattnall County74.7%23-149Windsor ForestAA
29.15AAAAdairsville98.0%42-735LaFayetteAAA
29.13AAACoahulla Creek86.9%30-1317Gordon LeeAAA
28.13AAAAAASouth Cobb53.4%21-201RiverwoodAAAAAA
27.62GIAA AAAA-AAABethlehem Christian Academy84.6%28-1216Lakeview AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
26.61AAAAAADouglas County98.8%40-040New ManchesterAAAAAA
25.93AAALakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe57.5%20-173RidgelandAAA
25.33AAAAAChamblee90.8%34-1420M.L. KingAAAAA
24.84AAAAHeritage (Ringgold)98.0%41-041Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
24.76GIAA AABrentwood School73.3%21-138Briarwood AcademyGIAA AA
23.52AAASavannah Country Day90.3%26-026BeachAAA
23.33A Division ILamar County97.8%35-035Pike CountyAAA
22.49AAAACairo98.9%38-038ShawAAAA
21.11AAAASoutheast Bulloch86.7%26-620IslandsAAAA
21.00GIAA AAAA-AAATattnall Square93.6%35-1223Frederica AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
20.90GIAA AACentral Fellowship Christian83.2%32-1814Gatewood SchoolGIAA AA
20.89AAAAAARome99.8%44-044WoodstockAAAAAA
20.49AATherrell70.3%17-710WashingtonAA
19.73A Division IDarlington99.6%43-043CoosaA Division I
19.29AAAAAARockdale County57.8%21-174Forest ParkAAAAAA
19.21GIAA AAAA-AAATerrell Academy77.5%23-1211Southland AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
18.61A Division IArmuchee52.4%17-161ChattoogaA Division I
18.15GIAA ARobert Toombs Academy66.0%30-246St. Andrew's SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
16.82A Division IBacon County89.2%28-622East LaurensA Division I
16.76A Division IIHancock Central54.1%22-211Glascock CountyA Division II
16.70AAAAEast Forsyth95.5%28-028East HallAAAA
16.12AAAAStockbridge99.6%38-038Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
15.97AAAAAAADiscovery96.2%31-031BerkmarAAAAAAA
15.75AANortheast99.5%42-042Central (Macon)AA
15.47GIAA AAAA-AAAHeritage (Newnan)96.7%38-632King's Ridge ChristianA Division I
14.83AARutland79.1%37-2710SouthwestAA
14.69A Division ITemple96.0%36-729MidtownAAAAA
14.58AAAHart County99.6%42-042Franklin CountyAAA
13.80GIAA AAAA-AAAValwood School91.5%36-1521Tiftarea AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
13.48A Division IIJohnson County98.7%34-034Georgia Military PrepA Division II
13.08AAPutnam County98.9%34-034Westside (Augusta)AA
12.95A Division IIGreene County92.0%34-1024Towns CountyA Division II
12.65AAAGilmer98.0%37-037West HallAAA
12.60GIAA AThomas Jefferson96.2%35-035Augusta PrepGIAA AA
11.50A Division IITaylor County62.8%21-156GreenvilleA Division II
10.38A Division IITelfair County97.6%40-238HawkinsvilleA Division II
9.15AAAAANorth Springs95.4%28-028NorthviewAAAAA
7.84AAThomson99.8%44-044JoseyAA
7.34AANorth Murray98.5%38-038Murray CountyAA
7.00A Division IIWilcox County98.6%41-041TreutlenA Division II
6.34AAHaralson County98.2%38-038Gordon CentralAA
5.78AAAHephzibah96.4%35-035SalemAAA
5.38AAACE Charter93.7%41-1724KendrickAA
5.04GIAA AFullington Academy57.3%31-283Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA AA
4.27AAButler94.3%31-031Glenn HillsAA
1.19AAALiberty County99.3%42-042GrovesAAA
1.12GAPPS AACherokee Christian97.4%34-034Lake Oconee AcademyA Division II
0.36AAAAAALakeside (Atlanta)95.0%30-030Johnson (Gainesville)AAAA
-1.49GIAA AAGeorgia Christian69.9%26-188Pataula CharterA Division II
-2.82AAAATroup100.0%55-055North ClaytonAAAA
-3.85A Division IAthens Christian98.3%39-039Loganville ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
-5.34AAAHarlem99.9%42-042Cross CreekAAA
-6.01A Division IIMiller County94.9%35-728Randolph-ClayA Division II
-6.41AAAADruid Hills86.5%38-2117Riverside Military AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
-9.35GIAA AAEdmund Burke Academy98.0%35-035Memorial DayGIAA A
-14.83GAPPS AARock Springs Christian55.0%14-122Creekside ChristianGAPPS AA
-15.21GAPPS AACalvary Christian98.9%35-035Community ChristianGAPPS AA
-15.51GAPPS AAKing's Academy96.7%39-732WalkerAA
-17.78A Division IIWilkinson County99.6%42-042Twiggs CountyA Division II
-18.98GAPPS AASkipstone Academy99.3%36-036Flint River AcademyGIAA A
-22.55GAPPS AALanier Christian98.7%42-042Notre Dame AcademyGIAA AA
-25.43GIAA AHarvester Christian81.4%23-716Grace ChristianGIAA A
-34.28A Division IISeminole County99.8%42-042Baconton CharterA Division II
-48.04A Division IIMarion County99.6%35-035Central (Talbotton)A Division II
-54.09A Division IIPortal100.0%49-049GSICA Division II

Oct 01

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
39.35AAAAAMaynard Jackson54.0%18-162Chapel HillAAAAA
-2.21AASouth Atlanta99.9%48-048KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA