Maxwell Week 5 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
Oct 1
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 48.92 | AAAA | Stephenson | 0.928 | 28 - 0 | 28 | Lithonia | AAAAA |
| 45.61 | AAAA | Carver (Columbus) | 0.926 | 33 - 7 | 26 | Shaw | AAAA |
| 43.99 | AAAA | Luella | 0.531 | 16 - 14 | 2 | Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | AAAA |
| 25.72 | AAA | Redan | 0.741 | 25 - 14 | 11 | Druid Hills | AAAA |
| 18.36 | AA | Pace Academy | 0.994 | 40 - 0 | 40 | McNair | AA |
| 13.80 | A Public | Metter | 0.996 | 42 - 0 | 42 | Portal | A Public |
Oct 2
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 89.02 | AAAAAAA | Milton | 0.537 | 19 - 17 | 2 | Cedar Grove | AAA |
| 86.31 | AAAAAAA | North Gwinnett | 0.702 | 20 - 12 | 8 | Archer | AAAAAAA |
| 83.98 | AAAAA | Cartersville | 0.669 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Cherokee | AAAAAAA |
| 80.99 | AAAAAAA | Mill Creek | 0.728 | 21 - 10 | 11 | West Forsyth | AAAAAAA |
| 80.41 | AAAAAAA | Parkview | 0.726 | 26 - 15 | 11 | Marietta | AAAAAAA |
| 80.24 | AAAAAAA | Hillgrove | 0.724 | 23 - 14 | 9 | Westlake | AAAAAA |
| 78.55 | AAAAA | Warner Robins | 0.902 | 28 - 6 | 22 | Houston County | AAAAAA |
| 78.38 | AAAAAA | Richmond Hill | 0.571 | 20 - 15 | 5 | Northside (Warner Robins) | AAAAAA |
| 77.02 | AAAAA | Ware County | 0.793 | 27 - 14 | 13 | Bainbridge | AAAA |
| 76.98 | AAAAAAA | McEachern | 0.731 | 27 - 16 | 11 | Newton | AAAAAAA |
| 76.52 | AAA | Pierce County | 0.524 | 21 - 20 | 1 | Eagle's Landing Christian | A Private |
| 75.02 | AAA | Oconee County | 0.629 | 20 - 14 | 6 | Thomasville | AA |
| 73.64 | AAAA | Benedictine | 0.641 | 22 - 18 | 4 | Wayne County | AAAAA |
| 73.52 | AAAAAAA | Brookwood | 0.864 | 34 - 15 | 19 | North Paulding | AAAAAAA |
| 73.39 | AAAAA | Coffee | 0.720 | 22 - 14 | 8 | Glynn Academy | AAAAAA |
| 73.10 | AAAAAAA | Tift County | 0.739 | 21 - 10 | 11 | Irwin County | A Public |
| 73.07 | AAAAAA | Dacula | 0.744 | 24 - 14 | 10 | Mountain View | AAAAAAA |
| 72.82 | AAA | Greater Atlanta Christian | 0.675 | 22 - 15 | 7 | Burke County | AAA |
| 72.82 | AAAAA | St. Pius X | 0.575 | 20 - 15 | 5 | Westminster (Atlanta) | AAA |
| 71.99 | AAAAAA | Carrollton | 0.785 | 28 - 14 | 14 | Dalton | AAAAAA |
| 71.23 | AAAAAA | Lovejoy | 0.653 | 20 - 14 | 6 | Griffin | AAAAA |
| 69.74 | AAAAAAA | Newnan | 0.832 | 24 - 7 | 17 | Harris County | AAAAA |
| 69.50 | AAAAA | Dutchtown | 0.620 | 21 - 15 | 6 | Ola | AAAAA |
| 68.92 | A Private | Wesleyan | 0.503 | 21 - 21 | 0 | Prince Avenue Christian | A Private |
| 68.90 | AAAAAAA | Collins Hill | 0.919 | 28 - 0 | 28 | Alpharetta | AAAAAAA |
| 68.12 | AAA | Peach County | 0.838 | 28 - 13 | 15 | Mary Persons | AAA |
| 66.18 | AAAA | Cedartown | 0.645 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Heard County | AA |
| 65.74 | AAAAAA | Douglas County | 0.813 | 27 - 12 | 15 | East Paulding | AAAAAA |
| 65.55 | AAAAAAA | South Gwinnett | 0.828 | 23 - 6 | 17 | Shiloh | AAAAAA |
| 65.45 | AAAA | Jefferson | 0.913 | 32 - 7 | 25 | Hart County | AAA |
| 65.39 | AAAAA | Jones County | 0.801 | 28 - 14 | 14 | Union Grove | AAAAA |
| 65.32 | AAAAAAA | East Coweta | 0.793 | 28 - 14 | 14 | Northgate | AAAAA |
| 65.03 | AAAAAAA | Gainesville | 0.641 | 22 - 17 | 5 | Forsyth Central | AAAAAAA |
| 65.02 | AAAAA | Calhoun | 0.886 | 28 - 6 | 22 | Woodstock | AAAAAAA |
| 64.54 | AAAAAAA | South Forsyth | 0.813 | 28 - 14 | 14 | Lambert | AAAAAAA |
| 64.45 | AAAAAA | Tucker | 0.651 | 20 - 14 | 6 | Southwest DeKalb | AAAAA |
| 64.23 | A Private | Fellowship Christian | 0.529 | 22 - 21 | 1 | North Cobb Christian | A Private |
| 63.36 | AAA | Appling County | 0.640 | 20 - 14 | 6 | Statesboro | AAAAAA |
| 62.72 | AAAAA | Veterans | 0.932 | 28 - 0 | 28 | Perry | AAAA |
| 62.65 | AAAAAA | Valdosta | 0.977 | 38 - 0 | 38 | Thomas County Central | AAAA |
| 62.54 | AAAAAA | Rome | 0.896 | 30 - 7 | 23 | South Paulding | AAAAAA |
| 62.30 | AAAAAA | Johns Creek | 0.720 | 25 - 14 | 11 | Sequoyah | AAAAAA |
| 61.86 | AAAA | Cairo | 0.630 | 23 - 19 | 4 | Pelham | A Public |
| 61.84 | A Public | Dublin | 0.798 | 26 - 12 | 14 | Swainsboro | AA |
| 60.83 | AAA | Stephens County | 0.651 | 24 - 20 | 4 | Habersham Central | AAAAAA |
| 60.71 | AAAAAAA | North Cobb | 0.966 | 35 - 0 | 35 | Etowah | AAAAAAA |
| 60.01 | AA | Washington County | 0.553 | 21 - 20 | 1 | Evans | AAAAAA |
| 59.81 | AAAAAA | Creekview | 0.822 | 22 - 7 | 15 | Cambridge | AAAAAA |
| 59.79 | AAAAA | Stockbridge | 0.795 | 27 - 14 | 13 | Locust Grove | AAAAA |
| 59.63 | AAAAAAA | North Forsyth | 0.913 | 28 - 0 | 28 | Denmark | AAAAAAA |
| 58.54 | AAAA | Cedar Shoals | 0.598 | 20 - 14 | 6 | Winder-Barrow | AAAAAA |
| 57.79 | AAAAA | Greenbrier | 0.504 | 17 - 17 | 0 | Loganville | AAAAA |
| 57.78 | AAA | Liberty County | 0.736 | 24 - 14 | 10 | Bradwell Institute | AAAAAA |
| 57.20 | AA | Early County | 0.534 | 19 - 17 | 2 | Westover | AAAA |
| 57.19 | AAAAAA | Alexander | 0.838 | 28 - 14 | 14 | Paulding County | AAAAAA |
| 56.69 | AAAAAAA | Pebblebrook | 0.654 | 23 - 18 | 5 | Riverdale | AAAA |
| 56.24 | AAA | Richmond Academy | 0.510 | 14 - 14 | 0 | Vidalia | AA |
| 56.13 | A Public | Brooks County | 0.918 | 32 - 7 | 25 | Mitchell County | A Public |
| 55.44 | A Private | Darlington | 0.611 | 21 - 17 | 4 | Heritage (Ringgold) | AAAA |
| 55.44 | AAAAA | Jonesboro | 0.640 | 20 - 13 | 7 | Banneker | AAAAA |
| 55.06 | AAA | Monroe Area | 0.676 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Madison County | AAAA |
| 54.75 | AAAAAA | Riverwood | 0.774 | 28 - 16 | 12 | Centennial | AAAAAA |
| 54.67 | AAAA | Howard | 0.700 | 24 - 14 | 10 | Effingham County | AAAAAA |
| 54.61 | A Private | Hebron Christian | 0.689 | 21 - 14 | 7 | George Walton Academy | A Private |
| 53.74 | AAAAAA | Hughes | 0.861 | 26 - 6 | 20 | M.L. King | AAAAA |
| 53.39 | AA | Pepperell | 0.659 | 20 - 13 | 7 | Temple | AA |
| 53.34 | AAAAAA | River Ridge | 0.795 | 28 - 14 | 14 | Chattahoochee | AAAAAA |
| 53.11 | AAAA | Westside (Macon) | 0.613 | 21 - 16 | 5 | Southwest | AA |
| 52.72 | AAA | Morgan County | 0.514 | 14 - 14 | 0 | Lakeside (Evans) | AAAAAA |
| 52.64 | AAAA | Flowery Branch | 0.906 | 32 - 7 | 25 | Hiram | AAAAA |
| 52.51 | AAAAA | Woodland (Stockbridge) | 0.568 | 21 - 19 | 2 | Eagle's Landing | AAAAA |
| 51.97 | AAA | Rockmart | 0.919 | 32 - 7 | 25 | Sonoraville | AAA |
| 51.81 | AAAAA | Woodward Academy | 0.903 | 31 - 7 | 24 | Mundy's Mill | AAAAA |
| 51.50 | AAA | Americus-Sumter | 0.639 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Central (Macon) | AAA |
| 50.74 | AAAA | Jenkins | 0.898 | 28 - 6 | 22 | Islands | AAAA |
| 49.65 | AA | Elbert County | 0.622 | 21 - 16 | 5 | Washington-Wilkes | A Public |
| 49.61 | A Public | Marion County | 0.728 | 24 - 14 | 10 | Schley County | A Public |
| 49.59 | AAAA | Central (Carrollton) | 0.668 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Villa Rica | AAAAA |
| 49.50 | AAA | Upson-Lee | 0.811 | 27 - 13 | 14 | Pike County | AAA |
| 49.49 | AA | Union County | 0.595 | 20 - 15 | 5 | Pickens | AAAA |
| 49.02 | A Private | Calvary Day | 0.681 | 21 - 14 | 7 | First Presbyterian | A Private |
| 48.99 | AAAAA | Clarke Central | 0.907 | 31 - 7 | 24 | Apalachee | AAAAA |
| 48.89 | AA | Northeast | 0.648 | 22 - 17 | 5 | Monroe | AAAA |
| 48.49 | AAAAA | Cass | 0.883 | 26 - 0 | 26 | Ridgeland | AAAA |
| 48.27 | AAAAA | Decatur | 0.505 | 17 - 17 | 0 | Arabia Mountain | AAAA |
| 48.08 | AA | Lovett | 0.923 | 28 - 0 | 28 | South Atlanta | AA |
| 48.07 | A Public | Emanuel County Institute | 0.664 | 26 - 20 | 6 | Screven County | A Public |
| 47.81 | AAAA | New Hampstead | 0.805 | 26 - 12 | 14 | Windsor Forest | AAA |
| 47.61 | A Private | Tattnall Square | 0.556 | 20 - 17 | 3 | Savannah Country Day | A Private |
| 47.04 | AAAAAAA | Meadowcreek | 0.768 | 29 - 19 | 10 | Duluth | AAAAAAA |
| 46.90 | A Public | Manchester | 0.695 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Chattahoochee County | A Public |
| 46.81 | AAAAAAA | Roswell | 0.984 | 38 - 0 | 38 | Campbell | AAAAAAA |
| 46.72 | AA | Bremen | 0.816 | 25 - 8 | 17 | Maynard Jackson | AAAAA |
| 45.88 | GISA AAA | John Milledge Academy | 0.878 | 28 - 7 | 21 | Bulloch Academy | GISA AAA |
| 45.39 | A Private | Stratford Academy | 0.542 | 14 - 14 | 0 | Mount Paran Christian | A Private |
| 45.34 | A Private | Mount Vernon Presbyterian | 0.700 | 24 - 14 | 10 | Athens Christian | A Private |
| 45.32 | AAA | Southeast Bulloch | 0.593 | 18 - 14 | 4 | Grovetown | AAAAAA |
| 43.99 | A Private | Aquinas | 0.803 | 28 - 14 | 14 | Strong Rock Christian | A Private |
| 43.92 | A Public | Lincoln County | 0.683 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Harlem | AAA |
| 43.88 | A Public | Turner County | 0.787 | 23 - 8 | 15 | Dougherty | AAAA |
| 43.57 | AAAAAAA | Norcross | 0.996 | 42 - 0 | 42 | Dunwoody | AAAAAAA |
| 43.55 | AAAAA | Creekside | 0.939 | 31 - 0 | 31 | Drew | AAAAA |
| 43.38 | A Public | Wilcox County | 0.824 | 27 - 10 | 17 | Telfair County | A Public |
| 42.67 | A Public | Charlton County | 0.516 | 21 - 21 | 0 | Tiftarea Academy | GISA AAA |
| 42.01 | AAAAA | Jackson County | 0.692 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Walnut Grove | AAAAA |
| 42.00 | AAAA | Fayette County | 0.645 | 19 - 13 | 6 | Hampton | AAAA |
| 40.60 | AA | Columbia | 0.809 | 27 - 13 | 14 | Therrell | AA |
| 40.47 | AAAAA | Northview | 0.814 | 28 - 14 | 14 | Grady | AAAAA |
| 39.88 | A Public | Montgomery County | 0.525 | 20 - 20 | 0 | Hawkinsville | A Public |
| 39.78 | AAAAAA | Lee County | 0.995 | 42 - 0 | 42 | Lithia Springs | AAAAA |
| 38.94 | AAA | North Hall | 0.857 | 28 - 12 | 16 | Chestatee | AAAA |
| 38.87 | AA | Bacon County | 0.660 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Tattnall County | AAA |
| 38.18 | AAAAA | Chapel Hill | 0.920 | 27 - 0 | 27 | Miller Grove | AAAA |
| 37.04 | AA | Toombs County | 0.934 | 34 - 7 | 27 | Berrien | AA |
| 36.91 | GISA AAA | Pinewood Christian | 0.529 | 21 - 21 | 0 | Valwood School | GISA AAA |
| 35.84 | A Private | Savannah Christian | 0.931 | 30 - 0 | 30 | Deerfield-Windsor | A Private |
| 35.42 | A Public | Gordon Lee | 0.748 | 24 - 14 | 10 | Gordon Central | AA |
| 35.35 | AAA | North Murray | 0.930 | 31 - 0 | 31 | Coahulla Creek | AAA |
| 34.69 | AAA | Ringgold | 0.819 | 27 - 13 | 14 | Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe | AAA |
| 34.61 | AAAA | East Hall | 0.780 | 28 - 17 | 11 | East Jackson | AAA |
| 34.51 | AAAAA | Stone Mountain | 0.532 | 21 - 21 | 0 | North Springs | AAAAA |
| 34.27 | A Public | Claxton | 0.801 | 21 - 6 | 15 | Jenkins County | A Public |
| 34.25 | AA | Putnam County | 0.858 | 22 - 0 | 22 | Westside (Augusta) | AA |
| 33.75 | AAA | LaFayette | 0.694 | 27 - 20 | 7 | Murray County | AAA |
| 33.50 | GISA AA | Brentwood School | 0.598 | 21 - 18 | 3 | Thomas Jefferson | GISA AA |
| 33.33 | AA | Jefferson County | 0.959 | 33 - 0 | 33 | Butler | AA |
| 33.17 | AA | Fannin County | 0.880 | 28 - 7 | 21 | Banks County | AA |
| 32.17 | AAAA | Columbus | 0.720 | 27 - 17 | 10 | Jordan | AAAA |
| 31.98 | AAAAAAA | Discovery | 0.857 | 24 - 3 | 21 | Berkmar | AAAAAAA |
| 31.83 | AAA | Cherokee Bluff | 0.870 | 28 - 7 | 21 | Lakeside (Atlanta) | AAAAAA |
| 31.38 | A Public | Taylor County | 0.879 | 31 - 12 | 19 | Greenville | A Public |
| 30.78 | A Public | Mount Zion (Carroll) | 0.802 | 28 - 14 | 14 | Dade County | AA |
| 30.31 | AA | Washington | 0.850 | 26 - 7 | 19 | KIPP Atlanta Collegiate | AA |
| 30.21 | GISA AAA | Frederica Academy | 0.806 | 22 - 7 | 15 | Brantley County | AAA |
| 30.09 | AA | Laney | 0.666 | 18 - 10 | 8 | Glenn Hills | AA |
| 28.53 | A Private | Lakeview Academy | 0.761 | 24 - 14 | 10 | Towns County | A Public |
| 28.35 | A Private | Heritage School | 0.628 | 21 - 15 | 6 | King's Ridge Christian | A Private |
| 28.05 | AAA | Beach | 0.876 | 28 - 7 | 21 | Savannah | AAA |
| 27.89 | AAAAA | Woodland (Cartersville) | 0.925 | 30 - 0 | 30 | Chamblee | AAAAA |
| 27.35 | A Public | Johnson County | 0.891 | 26 - 0 | 26 | Treutlen | A Public |
| 26.36 | A Public | Wilkinson County | 0.714 | 21 - 14 | 7 | Creekside Christian | GISA AAA |
| 26.25 | AAAA | Troup | 0.984 | 35 - 0 | 35 | Spencer | AAAA |
| 25.75 | AAAA | McDonough | 0.793 | 21 - 7 | 14 | North Clayton | AAAA |
| 25.34 | AAAAA | Tri-Cities | 0.922 | 30 - 0 | 30 | Forest Park | AAAAA |
| 24.58 | AAAA | LaGrange | 0.958 | 34 - 0 | 34 | Kendrick | AAAA |
| 24.53 | AA | Monticello | 0.740 | 28 - 18 | 10 | Greene County | A Public |
| 24.39 | GISA AAA | Brookwood School | 0.730 | 26 - 15 | 11 | Briarwood Academy | GISA AA |
| 23.66 | GISA AAA | Southland Academy | 0.572 | 17 - 14 | 3 | Westfield School | GISA AAA |
| 23.31 | AAAAA | Eastside | 0.987 | 40 - 0 | 40 | Johnson (Gainesville) | AAAAA |
| 23.26 | A Private | Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | 0.981 | 35 - 0 | 35 | Landmark Christian | A Private |
| 23.08 | AA | Jeff Davis | 0.973 | 35 - 0 | 35 | Long County | AAA |
| 20.74 | A Public | Terrell County | 0.851 | 28 - 13 | 15 | Crawford County | A Public |
| 20.55 | A Private | Holy Innocents | 0.989 | 38 - 0 | 38 | Loganville Christian | A Private |
| 20.05 | A Public | Armuchee | 0.703 | 23 - 14 | 9 | Southeast Whitfield | AAAA |
| 19.78 | AA | Oglethorpe County | 0.546 | 20 - 17 | 3 | Social Circle | A Public |
| 17.84 | GISA AA | Southwest Georgia Academy | 0.778 | 27 - 14 | 13 | Bethlehem Christian Academy | GISA AAA |
| 15.96 | AAA | Johnson (Savannah) | 0.797 | 24 - 12 | 12 | Groves | AAA |
| 15.69 | A Private | St. Francis | 0.928 | 34 - 7 | 27 | Lumpkin County | AAA |
| 15.30 | GISA AA | Piedmont Academy | 0.849 | 28 - 10 | 18 | Robert Toombs Academy | GISA AA |
| 13.65 | A Public | McIntosh County Academy | 0.979 | 35 - 0 | 35 | Bryan County | A Public |
| 12.97 | A Private | Athens Academy | 0.999 | 44 - 0 | 44 | Providence Christian | A Private |
| 10.05 | A Public | Lanier County | 0.985 | 37 - 0 | 37 | Baconton Charter | A Public |
| 10.04 | AAAA | Rutland | 0.925 | 28 - 0 | 28 | ACE Charter | A Public |
| 9.95 | AA | Cook | 0.996 | 43 - 0 | 43 | Randolph-Clay | A Public |
| 9.17 | A Public | Hancock Central | 0.971 | 34 - 0 | 34 | Georgia Military College | A Public |
| 8.80 | A Public | Warren County | 0.971 | 33 - 0 | 33 | Glascock County | A Public |
| -5.96 | A Public | Macon County | 0.999 | 46 - 0 | 46 | Central (Talbotton) | A Public |
| -41.90 | GISA AA | Edmund Burke Academy | 0.999 | 44 - 0 | 44 | GSIC | A Public |
Oct 3
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 53.51 | AA | Dodge County | 0.821 | 27 - 12 | 15 | Whitefield Academy | A Private |
| 19.65 | AAA | Hephzibah | 0.944 | 34 - 0 | 34 | Josey | AA |

