Maxwell Week 2 summary

Buford defensive players Jake Brittle (23) and Victor Payne (30) celebrate a North Cobb fumble in the first half of Friday's game. (Daniel Varnado/Special to the AJC)
Buford defensive players Jake Brittle (23) and Victor Payne (30) celebrate a North Cobb fumble in the first half of Friday's game. (Daniel Varnado/Special to the AJC)

Credit: Daniel Varnado

Credit: Daniel Varnado

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 416 teams throughout the 2020 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

ExploreHow Top 10 teams fared in Week 2

This offseason, the Maxwell ratings underwent its most significant overall in its 35-year history. The ratings are not only more accurate, but also now offer offense and defense ratings for each team.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The ratings are scaled so that there is a 50% chance in any given year of at least one team eclipsing a rating of 100.00.

A hypothetical score at a neutral location can be calculated between two teams by adding their offensive and defensive ratings. To account for home advantage, adjust the hypothetical scores in favor of the home team by half of the home advantage.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 234 of 268 total games including 0 tie(s) (87.31%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game scores within 10.49 points and all game margins within 13.85 points.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.01

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Grayson2-0105.091Lee County1-091.25
2North Gwinnett2-0103.072Valdosta1-089.73
3Colquitt County0-0102.773Buford0-188.03
4Lowndes2-0101.954Rome1-086.66
5Parkview1-094.875Allatoona1-084.36
6Mill Creek0-091.906Dacula0-181.96
7Marietta1-089.987Carrollton0-178.77
8McEachern0-289.438Northside (Warner Robins)1-178.60
9Milton0-089.359Westlake0-076.72
10North Cobb2-088.8310Lanier1-076.49
11Archer0-285.2211Richmond Hill1-176.39
12Norcross1-083.3612Kell0-175.23
13Hillgrove0-183.0013Glynn Academy1-173.56
14Collins Hill2-082.2314Creekview1-072.86
15Walton2-081.9315Dalton1-172.59



AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Blessed Trinity0-092.461Marist1-088.17
2Cartersville2-092.452Jefferson1-078.98
3Warner Robins1-191.383Benedictine2-078.21
4Coffee2-084.334Bainbridge0-177.77
5Ware County2-081.965Hapeville Charter0-075.97
6Jones County0-280.896Stephenson0-072.30
7Veterans2-079.057Mays1-172.09
8Woodward Academy0-178.738Flowery Branch1-171.42
9Dutchtown1-177.819Cairo0-271.23
10Calhoun1-177.5110Jenkins0-070.53
11Griffin1-173.3411Carver (Columbus)1-070.20
12Wayne County1-173.2912Cedartown0-169.71
13St. Pius X1-072.9913Troup0-268.47
14Clarke Central1-072.5714West Laurens0-267.34
15Starr's Mill1-171.1515Baldwin0-065.40



AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove0-089.621Rabun County2-077.88
2Peach County0-180.582Callaway1-077.26
3Greater Atlanta Christian2-079.973Fitzgerald2-076.72
4Crisp County2-079.534Thomasville1-172.54
5Sandy Creek1-079.175Lovett0-169.51
6Oconee County2-078.706Dodge County1-167.13
7Pierce County2-076.647Pace Academy1-067.00
8Westminster (Atlanta)0-073.458Bremen2-065.47
9Rockmart1-173.289Washington County0-165.26
10Mary Persons1-071.6510Heard County2-062.91
11Burke County0-171.4311Swainsboro1-162.38
12Thomson2-069.7212Jefferson County0-161.48
13White County2-067.6413Vidalia0-061.04
14Liberty County0-064.9414Toombs County2-060.78
15Appling County0-064.8415Bleckley County1-160.10



A Public A Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Brooks County2-078.041Eagle's Landing Christian2-088.92
2Irwin County0-178.002Athens Academy1-074.79
3Clinch County1-173.533Prince Avenue Christian1-170.53
4Dublin0-172.594Wesleyan2-069.25
5Commerce2-062.755Fellowship Christian2-064.72
6Marion County0-162.256Holy Innocents0-263.98
7Metter2-061.757Savannah Christian2-063.84
8Pelham1-160.928Darlington1-061.00
9Mitchell County0-256.369Calvary Day1-158.42
10Wilcox County1-055.7810Hebron Christian0-158.14
11Manchester0-155.5511Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)1-157.61
12Emanuel County Institute0-154.5412North Cobb Christian2-056.17
13Macon County1-053.9313George Walton Academy2-055.36
14Turner County1-053.8914Aquinas2-054.04
15Lincoln County0-153.1615Christian Heritage1-153.79



All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating Offense Defense
1 [1]Grayson4 - AAAAAAA2-0105.0938.35-11.03
2 [2]North Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA2-0103.0736.48-10.87
3 [3]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA0-0102.7735.04-12.02
4 [4]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA2-0101.9535.76-10.48
5 [5]Parkview4 - AAAAAAA1-094.8734.05-5.10
6 [1]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAAA0-092.4629.42-7.32
7 [2]Cartersville7 - AAAAA2-092.4529.84-6.89
8 [6]Mill Creek8 - AAAAAAA0-091.9029.68-6.51
9 [3]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA1-191.3829.53-6.14
10 [1]Lee County1 - AAAAAA1-091.2529.82-5.71
11 [7]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA1-089.9830.07-4.19
12 [2]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA1-089.7330.31-3.71
13 [1]Cedar Grove5 - AAA0-089.6227.52-6.38
14 [8]McEachern2 - AAAAAAA0-289.4327.95-5.77
15 [9]Milton5 - AAAAAAA0-089.3526.86-6.77
16 [1]Eagle's Landing Christian2 - A Private2-088.9228.26-4.94
17 [10]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA2-088.8328.87-4.24
18 [1]Marist6 - AAAA1-088.1727.13-5.32
19 [3]Buford8 - AAAAAA0-188.0326.88-5.44
20 [4]Rome5 - AAAAAA1-086.6628.04-2.90
21 [11]Archer7 - AAAAAAA0-285.2226.18-3.33
22 [5]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA1-084.3624.47-4.18
23 [4]Coffee1 - AAAAA2-084.3325.36-3.25
24 [12]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA1-083.3624.28-3.36
25 [13]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA0-183.0025.35-1.94
26 [14]Collins Hill8 - AAAAAAA2-082.2323.60-2.92
27 [6]Dacula8 - AAAAAA0-181.9624.32-1.93
28 [5]Ware County1 - AAAAA2-081.9625.36-0.88
29 [15]Walton3 - AAAAAAA2-081.9325.32-0.90
30 [16]Roswell5 - AAAAAAA0-081.8024.65-1.43
31 [17]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA0-180.9023.61-1.58
32 [6]Jones County4 - AAAAA0-280.8924.56-0.62
33 [2]Peach County2 - AAA0-180.5824.18-0.68
34 [3]Greater Atlanta Christian5 - AAA2-079.9722.91-1.35
35 [18]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA1-179.7623.39-0.66
36 [4]Crisp County2 - AAA2-079.5321.27-2.55
37 [5]Sandy Creek5 - AAA1-079.1723.680.23
38 [19]West Forsyth6 - AAAAAAA1-179.1221.65-1.75
39 [7]Veterans1 - AAAAA2-079.0521.87-1.47
40 [2]Jefferson8 - AAAA1-078.9822.61-0.66
41 [7]Carrollton5 - AAAAAA0-178.7723.750.69
42 [8]Woodward Academy3 - AAAAA0-178.7324.461.45
43 [6]Oconee County8 - AAA2-078.7021.39-1.59
44 [8]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA1-178.6020.75-2.13
45 [20]Harrison3 - AAAAAAA0-278.4323.010.29
46 [3]Benedictine3 - AAAA2-078.2125.202.70
47 [1]Brooks County2 - A Public2-078.0423.030.71
48 [2]Irwin County2 - A Public0-178.0021.00-1.28
49 [1]Rabun County8 - AA2-077.8823.911.74
50 [9]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA1-177.8120.36-1.74
51 [4]Bainbridge1 - AAAA0-177.7721.64-0.42
52 [10]Calhoun7 - AAAAA1-177.5121.08-0.72
53 [2]Callaway5 - AA1-077.2624.823.27
54 [21]Mountain View8 - AAAAAAA1-176.9921.770.49
55 [22]Brookwood4 - AAAAAAA1-076.9423.742.52
56 [23]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA2-076.7922.761.68
57 [9]Westlake4 - AAAAAA0-076.7222.401.39
58 [3]Fitzgerald1 - AA2-076.7222.451.45
59 [7]Pierce County1 - AAA2-076.6422.201.27
60 [10]Lanier8 - AAAAAA1-076.4921.010.24
61 [24]South Gwinnett4 - AAAAAAA2-076.4720.920.17
62 [11]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA1-176.3922.231.56
63 [25]Newton4 - AAAAAAA1-076.2622.491.95
64 [5]Hapeville Charter6 - AAAA0-075.9721.621.36
65 [12]Kell6 - AAAAAA0-175.2321.952.43
66 [26]South Forsyth6 - AAAAAAA0-075.1021.962.58
67 [2]Athens Academy8 - A Private1-074.7919.090.02
68 [27]Cherokee5 - AAAAAAA2-074.3320.221.60
69 [28]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA1-174.2722.483.93
70 [13]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA1-173.5620.602.75
71 [3]Clinch County2 - A Public1-173.5320.913.10
72 [8]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA0-073.4519.221.49
73 [11]Griffin2 - AAAAA1-173.3420.062.44
74 [12]Wayne County1 - AAAAA1-173.2919.141.56
75 [9]Rockmart6 - AAA1-173.2820.773.21
76 [13]St. Pius X5 - AAAAA1-072.9919.472.20
77 [14]Creekview7 - AAAAAA1-072.8620.603.46
78 [4]Dublin4 - A Public0-172.5920.693.81
79 [15]Dalton5 - AAAAAA1-172.5920.673.79
80 [14]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA1-072.5720.673.81
81 [4]Thomasville1 - AA1-172.5420.213.39
82 [6]Stephenson6 - AAAA0-072.3018.602.02
83 [7]Mays6 - AAAA1-172.0920.163.79
84 [16]Houston County1 - AAAAAA1-171.7319.603.59
85 [10]Mary Persons2 - AAA1-071.6519.843.91
86 [11]Burke County4 - AAA0-171.4321.125.41
87 [8]Flowery Branch8 - AAAA1-171.4219.734.03
88 [17]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA0-071.2920.364.78
89 [9]Cairo1 - AAAA0-271.2319.253.74
90 [15]Starr's Mill2 - AAAAA1-171.1520.044.61
91 [29]North Forsyth6 - AAAAAAA2-071.0319.424.10
92 [18]Alexander5 - AAAAAA2-070.6520.695.75
93 [10]Jenkins3 - AAAA0-070.5317.482.67
94 [3]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A Private1-170.5321.526.71
95 [30]Etowah5 - AAAAAAA0-170.5319.714.89
96 [31]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA1-070.4118.453.76
97 [19]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA2-070.3617.202.56
98 [11]Carver (Columbus)2 - AAAA1-070.2020.886.39
99 [20]Tucker4 - AAAAAA0-070.1418.353.93
100 [12]Thomson4 - AAA2-069.7218.554.55
101 [12]Cedartown7 - AAAA0-169.7117.803.81
102 [5]Lovett6 - AA0-169.5119.946.15
103 [4]Wesleyan5 - A Private2-069.2517.624.08
104 [16]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA0-268.7817.884.81
105 [13]Troup2 - AAAA0-268.4718.495.74
106 [17]Ola4 - AAAAA2-068.1819.657.19
107 [18]Harris County2 - AAAAA2-067.9318.175.96
108 [13]White County7 - AAA2-067.6419.777.85
109 [14]West Laurens4 - AAAA0-267.3416.995.37
110 [19]Creekside3 - AAAAA0-067.3017.415.83
111 [32]Gainesville6 - AAAAAAA1-067.2017.616.13
112 [6]Dodge County3 - AA1-167.1317.906.48
113 [7]Pace Academy6 - AA1-067.0015.694.40
114 [33]Alpharetta5 - AAAAAAA0-066.7315.824.80
115 [20]Union Grove4 - AAAAA2-066.6417.706.78
116 [21]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA1-165.8916.426.25
117 [22]Shiloh8 - AAAAAA0-165.6117.017.11
118 [8]Bremen5 - AA2-065.4715.325.56
119 [15]Baldwin4 - AAAA0-065.4016.977.29
120 [9]Washington County3 - AA0-165.2616.557.00
121 [16]North Oconee8 - AAAA0-265.2616.627.08
122 [23]Statesboro2 - AAAAAA0-065.1915.125.65
123 [24]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA2-065.1716.376.92
124 [34]Woodstock5 - AAAAAAA1-165.0516.306.97
125 [14]Liberty County3 - AAA0-064.9415.966.74
126 [15]Appling County1 - AAA0-064.8415.196.07
127 [21]Chapel Hill6 - AAAAA0-164.8215.456.35
128 [25]Wheeler6 - AAAAAA0-264.8116.847.74
129 [22]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA0-064.7713.994.93
130 [23]Eastside8 - AAAAA1-064.7516.827.79
131 [5]Fellowship Christian6 - A Private2-064.7218.129.12
132 [26]Sequoyah7 - AAAAAA0-264.5916.237.35
133 [17]Thomas County Central1 - AAAA0-164.2316.698.17
134 [16]Upson-Lee2 - AAA1-064.2215.957.44
135 [17]Dawson County7 - AAA0-264.0616.438.09
136 [18]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAA0-264.0313.745.43
137 [6]Holy Innocents5 - A Private0-263.9815.607.33
138 [27]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA0-263.9715.487.23
139 [7]Savannah Christian3 - A Private2-063.8415.066.94
140 [28]East Paulding5 - AAAAAA2-063.8115.117.01
141 [24]Northgate2 - AAAAA1-163.5915.447.56
142 [19]Westside (Macon)4 - AAAA0-063.4216.188.47
143 [18]Monroe Area8 - AAA1-163.3115.117.51
144 [29]Central Gwinnett8 - AAAAAA1-163.2617.299.75
145 [35]Denmark6 - AAAAAAA0-163.0115.768.47
146 [20]Perry4 - AAAA0-262.9914.937.65
147 [10]Heard County5 - AA2-062.9115.308.10
148 [5]Commerce8 - A Public2-062.7515.228.19
149 [30]Evans3 - AAAAAA2-062.4214.938.22
150 [11]Swainsboro2 - AA1-162.3813.737.06
151 [31]Riverwood7 - AAAAAA0-062.3014.147.55
152 [6]Marion County5 - A Public0-162.2516.409.87
153 [32]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA1-162.2216.239.73
154 [19]Hart County8 - AAA0-262.1015.579.19
155 [36]Peachtree Ridge8 - AAAAAAA1-062.0212.856.55
156 [33]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA2-061.9016.8410.65
157 [20]North Murray6 - AAA0-061.7614.548.50
158 [7]Metter3 - A Public2-061.7512.156.12
159 [21]Howard4 - AAAA0-061.5114.538.73
160 [25]Loganville8 - AAAAA1-061.4913.337.55
161 [26]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA2-061.4812.246.47
162 [12]Jefferson County4 - AA0-161.4815.389.62
163 [34]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA1-161.4114.979.27
164 [37]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA1-161.3013.778.19
165 [21]Jackson2 - AAA0-161.0414.018.69
166 [13]Vidalia2 - AA0-061.0412.286.96
167 [8]Darlington7 - A Private1-061.0013.568.28
168 [8]Pelham1 - A Public1-160.9215.3910.19
169 [14]Toombs County2 - AA2-060.7814.209.13
170 [22]New Hampstead3 - AAAA0-060.6514.739.80
171 [22]Douglass5 - AAA0-060.3813.198.53
172 [23]Stephens County8 - AAA1-160.3814.179.51
173 [35]Paulding County5 - AAAAAA2-060.2314.6310.11
174 [36]Hughes4 - AAAAAA0-060.2113.418.91
175 [27]Hiram7 - AAAAA0-260.1313.098.67
176 [15]Bleckley County3 - AA1-160.1014.369.98
177 [28]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA1-159.9614.069.82
178 [37]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA1-159.9513.539.29
179 [23]Riverdale5 - AAAA1-159.7314.6010.58
180 [24]Hardaway2 - AAAA1-059.5211.968.15
181 [25]Ridgeland7 - AAAA0-259.4614.2410.49
182 [16]Early County1 - AA2-059.4211.808.09
183 [24]North Hall7 - AAA0-259.3112.769.16
184 [26]Westover1 - AAAA0-059.1413.179.74
185 [38]South Effingham2 - AAAAAA0-158.8414.7711.65
186 [38]Lambert6 - AAAAAAA2-058.7412.819.78
187 [17]Elbert County8 - AA1-058.6413.3810.46
188 [25]Carver (Atlanta)5 - AAA0-258.5612.519.67
189 [26]Americus-Sumter2 - AAA0-158.5212.509.69
190 [9]Calvary Day3 - A Private1-158.4212.7510.05
191 [39]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA0-058.3613.6010.95
192 [18]Haralson County5 - AA2-058.3313.1610.55
193 [29]Cass7 - AAAAA2-058.3110.417.82
194 [10]Hebron Christian5 - A Private0-158.1413.0010.58
195 [40]River Ridge7 - AAAAAA2-058.0811.459.09
196 [39]Forsyth Central6 - AAAAAAA0-057.7811.719.65
197 [19]Jeff Davis2 - AA2-057.6912.9410.96
198 [11]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)4 - A Private1-157.6111.729.82
199 [20]Northeast3 - AA0-057.1712.0510.59
200 [41]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA0-056.7510.949.91
201 [30]Northview5 - AAAAA0-056.6912.8311.85
202 [27]Morgan County4 - AAA0-156.4913.0112.24
203 [31]Villa Rica6 - AAAAA1-056.4511.0210.29
204 [9]Mitchell County1 - A Public0-256.3612.2711.63
205 [40]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA1-156.2613.5713.02
206 [27]Madison County8 - AAAA0-156.2010.6710.19
207 [12]North Cobb Christian7 - A Private2-056.1711.5711.11
208 [42]Pope6 - AAAAAA0-155.8611.8411.70
209 [10]Wilcox County4 - A Public1-055.7811.7111.65
210 [21]Pepperell7 - AA0-255.6211.5111.61
211 [11]Manchester5 - A Public0-155.5511.7211.89
212 [28]Pickens7 - AAAA1-155.5111.4511.65
213 [29]Heritage (Ringgold)7 - AAAA2-055.4612.1512.41
214 [13]George Walton Academy8 - A Private2-055.3610.4810.84
215 [43]Morrow4 - AAAAAA1-155.2010.9911.51
216 [30]Northwest Whitfield7 - AAAA2-055.1410.6311.20
217 [32]Banneker3 - AAAAA0-055.1410.1410.72
218 [28]Richmond Academy4 - AAA2-055.069.059.71
219 [44]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA0-154.829.2310.12
220 [22]Cook1 - AA0-154.7710.8311.78
221 [23]Southwest3 - AA0-054.6510.4511.52
222 [33]New Manchester6 - AAAAA1-154.6310.8511.94
223 [31]Central (Carrollton)7 - AAAA0-154.6210.6811.77
224 [12]Emanuel County Institute3 - A Public0-154.5413.3914.57
225 [45]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA0-254.529.6410.84
226 [34]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA0-254.5110.1411.34
227 [24]Union County8 - AA0-254.2811.5312.96
228 [35]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA2-054.2212.0413.53
229 [36]M.L. King5 - AAAAA0-054.209.7711.28
230 [46]North Atlanta4 - AAAAAA0-054.1011.0412.65
231 [14]Aquinas3 - A Private2-054.0410.4112.08
232 [32]LaGrange2 - AAAA1-154.018.6310.34
233 [25]Columbia6 - AA0-053.9910.9212.65
234 [13]Macon County5 - A Public1-053.9310.9412.72
235 [14]Turner County2 - A Public1-053.899.3311.15
236 [15]Christian Heritage7 - A Private1-153.7910.4812.40
237 [29]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA2-053.7410.2512.22
238 [37]Mundy's Mill3 - AAAAA0-153.5110.6012.81
239 [47]Centennial7 - AAAAAA0-053.2112.6415.15
240 [15]Lincoln County8 - A Public0-153.169.4311.98
241 [38]Whitewater2 - AAAAA1-152.8710.1613.01
242 [16]Whitefield Academy2 - A Private1-152.698.4311.46
243 [17]Savannah Country Day3 - A Private0-152.6910.1813.21
244 [48]Lassiter6 - AAAAAA0-252.339.3312.72
245 [16]Schley County5 - A Public1-052.299.2912.71
246 [39]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA0-152.048.6712.34
247 [18]Mount de Sales1 - A Private1-151.908.8312.65
248 [40]Apalachee8 - AAAAA0-251.889.9413.77
249 [26]Chattooga7 - AA1-151.808.6712.58
250 [33]Islands3 - AAAA0-051.7410.0714.05
251 [19]Brookstone4 - A Private2-051.559.0013.16
252 [49]Kennesaw Mountain6 - AAAAAA0-251.549.2413.41
253 [41]Discovery7 - AAAAAAA1-151.416.8611.17
254 [20]Mount Paran Christian7 - A Private0-251.248.1812.65
255 [41]Decatur5 - AAAAA0-051.228.3512.84
256 [30]Sonoraville6 - AAA1-051.169.5214.07
257 [34]Arabia Mountain6 - AAAA0-051.128.3812.97
258 [42]Greenbrier8 - AAAAA1-051.057.6012.27
259 [21]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A Private0-250.7710.9715.92
260 [31]Adairsville6 - AAA1-150.678.6413.68
261 [32]Central (Macon)2 - AAA0-050.658.8413.91
262 [35]Spalding4 - AAAA0-250.619.3314.43
263 [33]Franklin County8 - AAA2-050.187.8513.39
264 [17]Charlton County2 - A Public1-050.188.7314.27
265 [43]Lithonia5 - AAAAA0-050.178.1713.71
266 [50]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA0-049.9811.1216.85
267 [36]Monroe1 - AAAA0-049.858.8314.69
268 [27]Lamar County3 - AA2-049.688.4114.45
269 [18]Dooly County4 - A Public0-049.689.0715.11
270 [28]Fannin County7 - AA1-049.448.3714.65
271 [37]Shaw2 - AAAA0-149.306.8713.29
272 [22]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A Private1-149.239.6316.12
273 [44]Northside (Columbus)2 - AAAAA1-149.0110.3017.01
274 [29]Temple5 - AA2-049.017.2113.91
275 [19]Screven County3 - A Public0-248.869.1916.04
276 [51]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA0-148.559.3716.54
277 [30]Washington6 - AA1-048.506.7413.95
278 [38]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)5 - AAAA0-248.495.8313.05
279 [34]Windsor Forest3 - AAA0-048.316.5413.94
280 [23]Stratford Academy1 - A Private0-148.245.7613.24
281 [20]Johnson County4 - A Public1-048.167.5715.12
282 [45]Jackson County8 - AAAAA1-047.875.9213.76
283 [21]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A Public1-047.855.7313.59
284 [52]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA0-247.766.2814.23
285 [42]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA0-247.677.3515.39
286 [31]South Atlanta6 - AA0-147.626.2314.33
287 [32]Worth County1 - AA1-147.578.9017.04
288 [35]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA2-047.406.5614.87
289 [36]Pike County2 - AAA0-147.346.8615.24
290 [39]Luella5 - AAAA1-147.175.6214.17
291 [22]Chattahoochee County5 - A Public2-047.115.7414.34
292 [23]McIntosh County Academy3 - A Public0-247.085.5814.21
293 [40]Hampton5 - AAAA1-146.915.4814.29
294 [24]Athens Christian8 - A Private2-046.816.9615.86
295 [41]Fayette County5 - AAAA1-146.774.7313.68
296 [37]Beach3 - AAA0-046.668.6317.68
297 [25]Tattnall Square1 - A Private1-046.627.4416.54
298 [43]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAAA0-046.496.6215.85
299 [24]Bowdon6 - A Public0-246.245.5215.00
300 [46]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA2-046.025.5015.20
301 [25]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - A Public1-046.027.0216.72
302 [26]Washington-Wilkes8 - A Public0-046.016.0815.78
303 [38]Hephzibah4 - AAA0-145.946.3216.09
304 [39]Harlem4 - AAA0-245.737.7117.70
305 [26]First Presbyterian1 - A Private1-045.727.2417.24
306 [47]Grady6 - AAAAA0-145.386.7217.05
307 [27]Trion6 - A Public0-145.375.5615.91
308 [42]East Hall8 - AAAA1-045.379.7620.11
309 [28]Lanier County2 - A Public2-045.346.9017.27
310 [44]Duluth7 - AAAAAAA0-045.147.5218.10
311 [48]Drew3 - AAAAA0-145.087.5118.15
312 [29]Telfair County4 - A Public1-144.916.3917.19
313 [49]Tri-Cities3 - AAAAA0-044.896.7317.56
314 [30]Claxton3 - A Public1-044.745.7716.75
315 [31]Atkinson County2 - A Public1-144.566.8718.03
316 [50]McIntosh2 - AAAAA0-244.276.3217.77
317 [43]Spencer2 - AAAA0-244.263.3214.78
318 [32]Warren County7 - A Public2-044.136.0817.66
319 [33]Gordon Lee6 - A Public2-044.135.5817.16
320 [33]Model7 - AA1-143.732.9714.96
321 [34]Taylor County5 - A Public1-043.485.9818.21
322 [44]Dougherty1 - AAAA0-043.213.6516.15
323 [35]Montgomery County4 - A Public1-043.016.2919.00
324 [27]Strong Rock Christian1 - A Private2-042.915.0117.82
325 [45]Chestatee8 - AAAA0-142.878.0620.91
326 [40]West Hall7 - AAA0-242.795.3218.24
327 [41]Ringgold6 - AAA0-142.764.3417.30
328 [34]Berrien1 - AA1-142.446.2619.54
329 [35]Putnam County4 - AA1-041.884.1718.01
330 [28]Pacelli4 - A Private2-041.764.1718.12
331 [51]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA0-241.684.0018.04
332 [46]Columbus2 - AAAA0-241.494.7819.01
333 [29]St. Francis6 - A Private0-241.075.3620.00
334 [36]Hancock Central7 - A Public0-040.983.2618.00
335 [47]McDonough5 - AAAA0-240.724.0619.05
336 [42]Brantley County1 - AAA0-240.663.6818.74
337 [43]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA0-240.553.0518.22
338 [52]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA0-240.553.4418.61
339 [36]Therrell6 - AA1-040.253.6419.11
340 [37]Monticello3 - AA0-140.153.9619.53
341 [44]LaFayette6 - AAA0-140.145.3220.90
342 [48]Miller Grove6 - AAAA0-039.840.1616.04
343 [53]North Springs6 - AAAAA0-039.794.8720.79
344 [38]Bacon County2 - AA1-139.792.9318.85
345 [39]Coosa7 - AA1-038.803.7720.69
346 [54]Stone Mountain5 - AAAAA0-038.663.1420.19
347 [45]Tattnall County1 - AAA0-238.061.6819.34
348 [40]Laney4 - AA0-037.690.4718.49
349 [37]Terrell County1 - A Public0-037.441.8020.07
350 [30]Walker7 - A Private0-236.820.7219.62
351 [46]Murray County6 - AAA1-036.812.0320.94
352 [41]Butler4 - AA1-036.501.1820.39
353 [47]Redan5 - AAA0-036.493.0822.30
354 [42]Banks County8 - AA0-236.351.4220.79
355 [43]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA1-136.33-0.2219.16
356 [31]Heritage School4 - A Private0-236.333.3622.74
357 [32]Deerfield-Windsor1 - A Private1-136.09-0.0419.59
358 [48]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA1-135.350.6821.05
359 [49]Gilmer7 - AAA0-135.20-0.8119.70
360 [38]Jenkins County3 - A Public0-234.84-0.8120.07
361 [39]Wilkinson County7 - A Public0-034.47-0.0121.24
362 [55]Forest Park3 - AAAAA0-234.45-0.0121.26
363 [50]Lumpkin County7 - AAA0-134.351.2422.61
364 [33]Lakeview Academy6 - A Private0-134.211.1522.65
365 [40]Greene County8 - A Public0-134.183.5125.04
366 [44]Gordon Central7 - AA0-233.70-1.5820.44
367 [56]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA0-133.661.5923.64
368 [53]Lakeside (Atlanta)4 - AAAAAA0-033.590.1022.23
369 [45]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA0-033.58-1.5120.62
370 [41]Seminole County1 - A Public0-133.58-0.6821.46
371 [45]East Laurens2 - AA0-133.583.4025.53
372 [34]Landmark Christian2 - A Private0-233.22-0.6221.88
373 [49]Rutland4 - AAAA0-032.750.2323.20
374 [42]Greenville5 - A Public1-132.731.3624.35
375 [51]Cross Creek4 - AAA0-232.72-1.4521.55
376 [52]East Jackson8 - AAA0-032.670.3523.39
377 [50]North Clayton5 - AAAA0-232.44-5.0718.21
378 [43]Wheeler County4 - A Public2-032.06-0.1723.48
379 [46]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA0-031.77-1.5622.39
380 [44]Hawkinsville4 - A Public0-131.72-0.8023.20
381 [45]Miller County1 - A Public0-230.90-2.1822.64
382 [47]Dade County7 - AA0-130.46-0.5824.67
383 [57]Chamblee5 - AAAAA0-030.04-1.1824.50
384 [53]Savannah3 - AAA0-029.99-2.5323.19
385 [54]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA0-029.63-1.5524.54
386 [51]Jordan2 - AAAA0-129.50-0.9225.29
387 [48]Glenn Hills4 - AA0-228.95-2.9723.80
388 [52]Kendrick2 - AAAA0-128.52-2.1025.09
389 [46]Treutlen4 - A Public0-128.06-2.1125.54
390 [49]Towers6 - AA0-027.64-3.7224.36
391 [53]Druid Hills6 - AAAA0-027.27-3.2525.19
392 [54]Southeast Whitfield7 - AAAA0-226.76-1.8827.08
393 [35]King's Ridge Christian6 - A Private0-025.38-4.7225.61
394 [55]Long County1 - AAA0-224.99-2.7527.98
395 [47]Social Circle8 - A Public1-124.65-2.0029.06
396 [48]Georgia Military College7 - A Public1-124.37-5.1626.18
397 [49]Portal3 - A Public0-124.24-3.6927.78
398 [50]Armuchee6 - A Public1-024.07-5.6126.04
399 [54]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-123.99-4.2727.46
400 [36]Loganville Christian8 - A Private1-022.78-6.1326.80
401 [51]Bryan County3 - A Public0-122.73-5.2527.74
402 [50]McNair6 - AA0-022.54-5.3127.87
403 [52]Towns County8 - A Public1-120.12-7.6527.95
404 [51]Oglethorpe County4 - AA0-019.37-7.7728.58
405 [52]Josey4 - AA0-019.24-5.8730.61
406 [53]Crawford County7 - A Public0-218.30-5.4831.94
407 [56]Groves3 - AAA0-017.65-8.4429.62
408 [37]Providence Christian5 - A Private0-216.60-8.6930.43
409 [54]Baconton Charter1 - A Public1-013.51-9.7132.49
410 [55]ACE Charter7 - A Public †0-111.78-9.1434.80
411 [56]Randolph-Clay1 - A Public0-09.54-11.1435.03
412 [57]Central (Talbotton)5 - A Public0-26.92-13.2135.59
413 [58]Glascock County7 - A Public †1-10.42-18.4136.89
414 [59]Pataula Charter1 - A Public †0-2-3.18-20.8938.00
415 [58]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA †0-0-29.71-32.2153.22
416 [60]GSIC7 - A Public †0-2-46.14-32.2669.60



† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating,” which is the mode of the Extreme Value Type I Distribution (i.e., the Gumbel minimum distribution) applied to the ratings. This calculation favors regions with large numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Teams Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA496.8491.35
24 - AAAAAAA592.3185.93
38 - AAAAAAA590.1683.24
41 - AAAAAA486.9582.83
53 - AAAAAAA685.5082.74
61 - AAAAA585.1082.00
77 - AAAAA679.9571.15
85 - AAAAAAA679.1974.63
98 - AAAAAA776.5771.24
102 - AAAAAAA576.0969.12
115 - AAA775.9268.24
125 - AAAAAA875.1270.66
136 - AAAAAAA771.3467.43
144 - AAAAA871.2166.37
156 - AAAA770.7060.97
163 - AAAA470.5165.28
172 - A Private370.1658.27
182 - AAA870.0764.19
192 - AAAAAA768.9865.45
202 - A Public767.7760.50
215 - AA567.5462.60
227 - AAAAAAA766.9657.35
231 - AAAA666.7860.91
248 - AAAA766.7760.59
256 - AAAAAA965.7857.85
262 - AAAAA765.5060.31
274 - AAAAAA765.2959.30
281 - AA665.2458.91
297 - AAAAAA865.1561.13
308 - AAA664.6857.89
318 - AA464.2256.79
328 - A Private563.0054.05
334 - AAAA762.4257.72
343 - AAAAA861.9155.07
353 - AA760.3856.31
364 - AAA760.3453.87
375 - A Private559.8251.75
383 - A Private459.5357.25
398 - AAAAA859.1553.12
407 - AAAA759.1053.81
411 - AAA558.6949.04
422 - AA657.8452.54
433 - AAAAAA457.6454.88
442 - AAAA956.7649.48
457 - AAA756.5850.11
467 - A Private555.4651.80
476 - AAAAA754.8550.52
485 - AAAAA854.7152.34
496 - AAA954.5148.05
506 - AA953.3745.42
514 - A Public952.0345.11
525 - A Public851.3444.28
534 - A Private450.9946.81
545 - AAAA750.2246.03
556 - A Private549.9142.92
563 - AAA749.1241.56
573 - A Public848.9442.35
588 - A Public647.8840.15
597 - AA747.8043.36
601 - A Private647.7645.24
616 - A Public645.5642.28
624 - AA842.0035.18
631 - A Public740.3834.61
647 - A Public527.8832.45

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Prob Likelihood
09/04Clinch CountyMacon County19 - 2119.6090.3%0.261
09/04Telfair CountyWheeler County19 - 2612.8581.1%0.297
09/11Morgan CountyPutnam County2 - 514.6184.0%0.319
09/04Dawson CountyCass7 - 235.7565.8%0.375
09/04West LaurensBleckley County19 - 277.2469.5%0.387
09/11DublinDodge County20 - 335.4665.0%0.392
09/11Mitchell CountyWorth County30 - 348.7873.1%0.397
09/11TrionCoosa45 - 516.5767.8%0.413
09/11WoodstockRiver Ridge17 - 226.9768.8%0.415
09/05Dodge CountyToombs County20 - 266.3567.3%0.417
09/11Central (Carrollton)Temple7 - 145.6165.4%0.422
09/11PickensChattooga14 - 283.7160.4%0.425
09/04Camden CountyRichmond Hill11 - 283.3759.5%0.425
09/03Sandy CreekNorthgate28 - 2415.5885.4%0.430
09/03DaculaBrookwood34 - 405.0363.9%0.437

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Prob
102.3411/06Colquitt CountyLowndes - 0.8352.4%
97.3010/30GraysonParkview - 10.2376.2%
97.1809/18North GwinnettParkview - 8.2071.7%
94.3510/16North GwinnettMill Creek - 11.1778.1%
94.3110/09GraysonMill Creek - 13.1981.7%
93.7009/25LowndesLee County - 10.7077.1%
92.4610/30Blessed TrinityCartersville - 0.0150.0%
92.1710/09LowndesValdosta - 12.2280.0%
92.1509/25Colquitt CountyValdosta - 13.0481.5%
91.8209/03North GwinnettMcEachern35 - 713.6482.5%
91.7610/02ParkviewMarietta - 4.8863.5%
91.6909/11GraysonMcEachern55 - 2115.6685.6%
91.3210/09Warner RobinsLee County - 0.1350.4%
91.1910/09North GwinnettNorth Cobb - 14.2483.4%
90.4809/04Warner RobinsValdosta25 - 281.6554.7%

About the Author