High schools

Maxwell Week 2 projections

By Loren Maxwell
Aug 26, 2021

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Aug 26

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
57.63AAAAIslands62.0%20-146Windsor ForestAAA
56.97AAAAAJonesboro70.0%21-147Eagle's LandingAAAAA
50.21AAAAMonroe57.8%21-183ShawAAAA
44.52AAARinggold71.4%22-148GilmerAAA

Aug 27

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
93.29AAAAABlessed Trinity52.8%21-201MaristAAAA
91.61AAAAAWarner Robins68.9%24-186ArcherAAAAAAA
90.94AAAAAAAMill Creek61.5%21-183NorcrossAAAAAAA
90.29AAAAAAAMilton56.4%21-201North CobbAAAAAAA
88.47AAAAAAAColquitt County88.6%29-1316WestlakeAAAAAA
87.43AAAAAAAGrayson87.0%28-1315McEachernAAAAAAA
84.48AAAAACartersville79.8%26-1412West ForsythAAAAAAA
84.12AAAAACoffee67.3%22-175BainbridgeAAAA
84.00AAAAAWare County67.4%24-186Eagle's Landing ChristianA Private
82.96AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett85.6%28-1414Jones CountyAAAAA
82.45AAAPeach County59.4%21-183Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAAA
82.35AAAAAADacula65.8%27-216BrookwoodAAAAAAA
81.80A PublicIrwin County60.3%21-183FitzgeraldAA
79.91AAAAAAACamden County67.5%22-166Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
79.32AAACrisp County61.6%21-165Houston CountyAAAAAA
79.18AAAAAAATift County67.3%21-147DutchtownAAAAA
78.17AAAAAAAHillgrove74.0%28-208KellAAAAAA
78.07AAAPierce County63.6%22-193Wayne CountyAAAAA
77.26AAAAAABuford94.2%35-1223Clarke CentralAAAAA
76.75A PublicBrooks County64.7%22-184CairoAAAA
76.59AAAACedartown54.9%21-201RockmartAAA
76.44AAAAAAAParkview85.7%30-1416Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
76.19AAAAAAACollins Hill84.5%28-1315SprayberryAAAAAA
75.96AAAWestminster (Atlanta)52.4%20-200St. Pius XAAAAA
75.95AAAAAAAllatoona82.8%25-1213HughesAAAAAA
75.92AAAAAACarrollton82.6%28-1414Johns CreekAAAAAA
74.93AAAAAAAHarrison85.2%28-1315North ForsythAAAAAAA
74.74AAACedar Grove90.4%28-721TuckerAAAAAA
74.60AAAAAWoodward Academy59.3%21-201Hapeville CharterAAAA
74.47AAAAAAACherokee72.2%24-159SequoyahAAAAAA
74.21AAAGreater Atlanta Christian79.7%27-1413LovettAA
74.18AAAAAAALowndes95.2%34-727GriffinAAAAA
74.00AAAAppling County58.3%21-201Clinch CountyA Public
72.47AAAAAVeterans67.3%21-147West LaurensAAAA
71.74AACallaway79.4%28-1513TroupAAAA
71.46A PublicDublin63.4%25-205Dodge CountyAA
71.33AAAAAADouglas County62.0%21-165StockbridgeAAAAA
70.72AAAAAOla55.2%24-213North OconeeAAAA
70.15AAAAAAANorth Paulding79.5%28-1612South PauldingAAAAAA
69.55AAThomasville76.5%28-1810Thomas County CentralAAAA
69.35AAAAAEastside54.3%21-210Winder-BarrowAAAAAA
68.71AAWashington County51.4%21-210BaldwinAAAA
68.60AAAAAAAWoodstock58.5%22-202River RidgeAAAAAA
68.17AAAAFlowery Branch80.5%28-1711Dawson CountyAAA
68.10AAAWhite County56.0%24-213Hart CountyAAA
67.23AAAAStephenson61.4%20-146Southwest DeKalbAAAAA
65.97AAAAJefferson91.9%33-1320Central GwinnettAAAAAA
65.91A PrivateWesleyan70.8%22-148DecaturAAAAA
65.42AAANorth Hall52.9%21-210Stephens CountyAAA
65.08AAAOconee County92.8%28-028Cedar ShoalsAAAA
65.04AAJefferson County65.4%21-174SwainsboroAA
64.28A PublicPelham57.2%21-201Early CountyAA
64.15AAAAAAAWalton93.6%32-725PopeAAAAAA
64.02AABleckley County69.7%25-196Wilcox CountyA Public
63.51AAAAAChapel Hill51.7%21-210Central (Carrollton)AAAA
63.09A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)68.3%24-195Mount Vernon PresbyterianA Private
62.65AAHeard County67.5%24-195PepperellAA
62.39AAAAAARiverwood70.2%23-158WheelerAAAAAA
61.85A PrivateNorth Cobb Christian52.9%20-200Hebron ChristianA Private
61.19AAAAAAAEast Coweta94.0%33-726New ManchesterAAAAA
61.17AANortheast66.8%23-185Central (Macon)AAA
60.45AAAAANorthgate57.5%21-201Locust GroveAAAAA
60.44AAAAAABrunswick87.9%28-1216McIntosh County AcademyA Public
60.40AAAAAHiram65.3%24-204Paulding CountyAAAAAA
60.08A PrivateGeorge Walton Academy68.0%22-166Stratford AcademyA Private
59.71AAAAHardaway60.4%21-174Sumter CountyAAA
59.52AAAAAAALambert70.1%24-177LassiterAAAAAA
59.51AAElbert County52.7%21-201Whitefield AcademyA Private
59.47AAAAAAAGainesville85.8%30-1416ChattahoocheeAAAAAA
59.20AAHaralson County64.0%22-193ManchesterA Public
59.17AABremen77.6%24-1410BowdonA Public
58.99AAAAACass61.8%21-174AdairsvilleAAA
58.97A PublicCommerce78.3%27-1512PickensAAAA
58.86AAAAAAADenmark87.7%28-919BannekerAAAAA
58.76A PublicMetter79.6%26-1412South EffinghamAAAAAA
58.70A PrivateCalvary Day72.0%24-168Bulloch AcademyGISA AAA
57.10AAAAArabia Mountain50.5%20-200M.L. KingAAAAA
56.92AAAAAAEast Paulding81.0%26-1313CampbellAAAAAAA
56.87AAAAAAAMeadowcreek54.0%22-211Heritage (Conyers)AAAAAA
56.81A PublicMitchell County64.8%27-216Worth CountyAA
56.78A PrivateSavannah Country Day51.0%21-210Emanuel County InstituteA Public
56.46GISA AAAFrederica Academy51.1%21-210Valwood SchoolGISA AAA
56.42AAAAAAHabersham Central82.1%28-1513ApalacheeAAAAA
56.39AAJeff Davis77.3%27-1710Atkinson CountyA Public
56.26AAAAAAKennesaw Mountain76.5%26-1412DiscoveryAAAAAAA
56.12AAAAAALee County99.3%40-040Maynard JacksonAAAAA
56.01AAAAAAASouth Gwinnett93.0%29-623LithoniaAAAAA
55.91GISA AAAJohn Milledge Academy95.6%35-728Brentwood SchoolGISA AA
55.58AAAAAAANewton95.4%33-627AlcovyAAAAAA
55.49AAAAAVilla Rica53.2%21-210TempleAA
55.48AAAAAWhitewater70.8%21-147Fayette CountyAAAA
54.98AAAAAAARoswell97.7%38-335CentennialAAAAAA
54.98AAAAAAEvans80.9%28-1414HephzibahAAA
54.36AAAMorgan County80.5%26-1412Putnam CountyAA
54.09A PrivateMount Paran Christian61.7%22-202Mount Pisgah ChristianA Private
53.61AAALiberty County71.4%23-158Bradwell InstituteAAAAAA
53.13AAAAAAAPebblebrook89.0%30-1317South CobbAAAAAA
52.69AAAThomson93.4%31-724GrovetownAAAAAA
52.69AAAAAUnion Grove89.1%30-1317SpaldingAAAA
52.60AAAAAWoodland (Stockbridge)72.7%24-1410LuellaAAAA
52.12AAAAAGreenbrier73.5%27-1710HarlemAAA
51.72AAAAHoward81.1%27-1413SouthwestAA
51.60AAAALaGrange76.2%26-1412McIntoshAAAAA
51.50AAAAAADalton93.5%35-1421RidgelandAAAA
51.28AAAAAStarr's Mill96.6%33-033Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
50.36A PublicTaylor County59.3%24-213Pike CountyAAA
50.01AAAMonroe Area94.4%29-029Walnut GroveAAAAA
49.74AAASalem53.8%21-210Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
49.49AAModel64.1%21-183LaFayetteAAA
48.93A PublicLanier County55.3%23-212BerrienAA
48.74AAAWest Hall50.3%23-230East HallAAAA
48.64A PublicMarion County82.3%27-1314Terrell CountyA Public
48.33AAACherokee Bluff76.3%28-1810ChestateeAAAA
48.18GISA AAATiftarea Academy81.1%27-1413Community ChristianGAPPS AA
48.06A PublicTelfair County71.3%21-147Jenkins CountyA Public
47.52AAAAAANorth Atlanta87.0%27-918MidtownAAAAA
46.98AAAAATri-Cities72.1%26-179Stone MountainAAAAA
46.36A PublicGordon Lee70.6%25-178Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
46.34A PublicWarren County79.2%24-1410Westside (Augusta)AA
46.03AAAJackson90.8%28-721LaneyAA
45.69AAASoutheast Bulloch80.6%26-1412Brantley CountyAAA
45.26A PublicJohnson County78.6%27-1413East LaurensAA
44.96A PrivateDeerfield-Windsor67.8%21-147Miller CountyA Public
43.97AAAAJenkins93.1%31-724BeachAAA
43.86AAAFranklin County84.7%27-1017Banks CountyAA
43.71AAAMary Persons95.7%34-628McDonoughAAAA
43.57AAAACarver (Columbus)97.7%35-035SpencerAAAA
43.42A PrivateAthens Christian74.8%28-208St. FrancisA Private
42.93A PublicTrion70.4%24-177CoosaAA
42.53A PrivateDarlington94.2%33-726Lakeview AcademyA Private
42.04AAAANorthwest Whitfield91.8%31-922Gordon CentralAA
42.02GISA AAGatewood School94.7%30-030Edmund Burke AcademyGISA AA
41.96A PrivateChristian Heritage95.0%33-627Landmark ChristianA Private
41.73AAAANew Hampstead94.1%34-727Johnson (Savannah)AAA
41.20A PrivateTattnall Square83.3%28-1414HawkinsvilleA Public
41.06AAAAAJackson County85.5%28-1315East JacksonAAA
40.78A PrivateStrong Rock Christian64.1%24-204GreenvilleA Public
40.38A PrivateBrookstone87.1%28-1018WalkerA Private
38.41A PublicMount Zion (Carroll)85.3%28-1315Creekside ChristianGISA AAA
37.66A PrivateKing's Ridge Christian53.1%20-200Greene CountyA Public
37.21AAAAAAADunwoody78.5%26-1412North SpringsAAAAA
37.11AAACoahulla Creek63.3%22-193Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
36.82A PublicSocial Circle65.0%27-216Providence ChristianA Private
36.74A PublicB.E.S.T. Academy80.5%24-1212North ClaytonAAAA
36.29AAAAMiller Grove87.9%26-719Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAAA
35.39A PrivateLoganville Christian69.0%24-177Bethlehem Christian AcademyGISA AAA
35.35AAAAAAMorrow90.3%28-919Forest ParkAAAAA
34.45A PrivateAquinas96.0%34-034Cross CreekAAA
34.25AABacon County89.0%28-1216Long CountyAAA
33.53AAAAAChamblee82.1%27-1413Lumpkin CountyAAA
32.48AAAAAWoodland (Cartersville)93.7%28-028OsborneAAAAAA
32.45GISA AAThomas Jefferson75.9%27-1710Robert Toombs AcademyGISA AA
32.22A PublicLincoln County97.2%35-035Bryan CountyA Public
31.94A PublicTowns County65.4%21-165ArmucheeA Public
30.33A PublicMontgomery County92.6%31-823PortalA Public
30.19AAAADougherty92.2%31-823KendrickAAAA
29.77AAARedan86.5%28-1414Druid HillsAAAA
26.00AAAARutland85.9%28-1414ACE CharterA Public
25.63AAAAJordan80.1%28-1612Randolph-ClayA Public
24.47AALamar County97.0%35-332Crawford CountyA Public
23.95A PublicChattahoochee County97.9%35-035McNairAA
23.91A PublicGeorgia Military College83.6%27-1413Central (Talbotton)A Public
20.89AAAAAAABerkmar88.5%28-820ClarkstonAAAAA
20.75A PublicWilkinson County91.7%28-622Twiggs CountyA Public
15.56A PublicWheeler County93.1%34-1222Glascock CountyA Public
10.05GAPPS AACalvary Christian97.1%34-034Georgia ChristianGISA AA
6.92GAPPS AAPinecrest Academy96.2%34-034Lake Oconee AcademyA Private
6.58GISA AABriarwood Academy99.2%40-040John Hancock AcademyGISA AA
-5.44GAPPS ARock Springs Christian89.7%29-1217Harvester ChristianGAPPS A

Aug 28

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
70.46AAAAAALovejoy64.8%22-193Carver (Atlanta)AAA
68.11AARabun County83.5%28-1414Pace AcademyAA
65.37AAAAMays54.7%22-211RiverdaleAAAA
52.58A PublicMacon County79.7%27-1413Dooly CountyA Public

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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