Maxwell Week 2 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
Aug 26
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 57.63 | AAAA | Islands | 62.0% | 20-14 | 6 | Windsor Forest | AAA |
| 56.97 | AAAAA | Jonesboro | 70.0% | 21-14 | 7 | Eagle's Landing | AAAAA |
| 50.21 | AAAA | Monroe | 57.8% | 21-18 | 3 | Shaw | AAAA |
| 44.52 | AAA | Ringgold | 71.4% | 22-14 | 8 | Gilmer | AAA |
Aug 27
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 93.29 | AAAAA | Blessed Trinity | 52.8% | 21-20 | 1 | Marist | AAAA |
| 91.61 | AAAAA | Warner Robins | 68.9% | 24-18 | 6 | Archer | AAAAAAA |
| 90.94 | AAAAAAA | Mill Creek | 61.5% | 21-18 | 3 | Norcross | AAAAAAA |
| 90.29 | AAAAAAA | Milton | 56.4% | 21-20 | 1 | North Cobb | AAAAAAA |
| 88.47 | AAAAAAA | Colquitt County | 88.6% | 29-13 | 16 | Westlake | AAAAAA |
| 87.43 | AAAAAAA | Grayson | 87.0% | 28-13 | 15 | McEachern | AAAAAAA |
| 84.48 | AAAAA | Cartersville | 79.8% | 26-14 | 12 | West Forsyth | AAAAAAA |
| 84.12 | AAAAA | Coffee | 67.3% | 22-17 | 5 | Bainbridge | AAAA |
| 84.00 | AAAAA | Ware County | 67.4% | 24-18 | 6 | Eagle's Landing Christian | A Private |
| 82.96 | AAAAAAA | North Gwinnett | 85.6% | 28-14 | 14 | Jones County | AAAAA |
| 82.45 | AAA | Peach County | 59.4% | 21-18 | 3 | Northside (Warner Robins) | AAAAAA |
| 82.35 | AAAAAA | Dacula | 65.8% | 27-21 | 6 | Brookwood | AAAAAAA |
| 81.80 | A Public | Irwin County | 60.3% | 21-18 | 3 | Fitzgerald | AA |
| 79.91 | AAAAAAA | Camden County | 67.5% | 22-16 | 6 | Glynn Academy | AAAAAA |
| 79.32 | AAA | Crisp County | 61.6% | 21-16 | 5 | Houston County | AAAAAA |
| 79.18 | AAAAAAA | Tift County | 67.3% | 21-14 | 7 | Dutchtown | AAAAA |
| 78.17 | AAAAAAA | Hillgrove | 74.0% | 28-20 | 8 | Kell | AAAAAA |
| 78.07 | AAA | Pierce County | 63.6% | 22-19 | 3 | Wayne County | AAAAA |
| 77.26 | AAAAAA | Buford | 94.2% | 35-12 | 23 | Clarke Central | AAAAA |
| 76.75 | A Public | Brooks County | 64.7% | 22-18 | 4 | Cairo | AAAA |
| 76.59 | AAAA | Cedartown | 54.9% | 21-20 | 1 | Rockmart | AAA |
| 76.44 | AAAAAAA | Parkview | 85.7% | 30-14 | 16 | Mountain View | AAAAAAA |
| 76.19 | AAAAAAA | Collins Hill | 84.5% | 28-13 | 15 | Sprayberry | AAAAAA |
| 75.96 | AAA | Westminster (Atlanta) | 52.4% | 20-20 | 0 | St. Pius X | AAAAA |
| 75.95 | AAAAAA | Allatoona | 82.8% | 25-12 | 13 | Hughes | AAAAAA |
| 75.92 | AAAAAA | Carrollton | 82.6% | 28-14 | 14 | Johns Creek | AAAAAA |
| 74.93 | AAAAAAA | Harrison | 85.2% | 28-13 | 15 | North Forsyth | AAAAAAA |
| 74.74 | AAA | Cedar Grove | 90.4% | 28-7 | 21 | Tucker | AAAAAA |
| 74.60 | AAAAA | Woodward Academy | 59.3% | 21-20 | 1 | Hapeville Charter | AAAA |
| 74.47 | AAAAAAA | Cherokee | 72.2% | 24-15 | 9 | Sequoyah | AAAAAA |
| 74.21 | AAA | Greater Atlanta Christian | 79.7% | 27-14 | 13 | Lovett | AA |
| 74.18 | AAAAAAA | Lowndes | 95.2% | 34-7 | 27 | Griffin | AAAAA |
| 74.00 | AAA | Appling County | 58.3% | 21-20 | 1 | Clinch County | A Public |
| 72.47 | AAAAA | Veterans | 67.3% | 21-14 | 7 | West Laurens | AAAA |
| 71.74 | AA | Callaway | 79.4% | 28-15 | 13 | Troup | AAAA |
| 71.46 | A Public | Dublin | 63.4% | 25-20 | 5 | Dodge County | AA |
| 71.33 | AAAAAA | Douglas County | 62.0% | 21-16 | 5 | Stockbridge | AAAAA |
| 70.72 | AAAAA | Ola | 55.2% | 24-21 | 3 | North Oconee | AAAA |
| 70.15 | AAAAAAA | North Paulding | 79.5% | 28-16 | 12 | South Paulding | AAAAAA |
| 69.55 | AA | Thomasville | 76.5% | 28-18 | 10 | Thomas County Central | AAAA |
| 69.35 | AAAAA | Eastside | 54.3% | 21-21 | 0 | Winder-Barrow | AAAAAA |
| 68.71 | AA | Washington County | 51.4% | 21-21 | 0 | Baldwin | AAAA |
| 68.60 | AAAAAAA | Woodstock | 58.5% | 22-20 | 2 | River Ridge | AAAAAA |
| 68.17 | AAAA | Flowery Branch | 80.5% | 28-17 | 11 | Dawson County | AAA |
| 68.10 | AAA | White County | 56.0% | 24-21 | 3 | Hart County | AAA |
| 67.23 | AAAA | Stephenson | 61.4% | 20-14 | 6 | Southwest DeKalb | AAAAA |
| 65.97 | AAAA | Jefferson | 91.9% | 33-13 | 20 | Central Gwinnett | AAAAAA |
| 65.91 | A Private | Wesleyan | 70.8% | 22-14 | 8 | Decatur | AAAAA |
| 65.42 | AAA | North Hall | 52.9% | 21-21 | 0 | Stephens County | AAA |
| 65.08 | AAA | Oconee County | 92.8% | 28-0 | 28 | Cedar Shoals | AAAA |
| 65.04 | AA | Jefferson County | 65.4% | 21-17 | 4 | Swainsboro | AA |
| 64.28 | A Public | Pelham | 57.2% | 21-20 | 1 | Early County | AA |
| 64.15 | AAAAAAA | Walton | 93.6% | 32-7 | 25 | Pope | AAAAAA |
| 64.02 | AA | Bleckley County | 69.7% | 25-19 | 6 | Wilcox County | A Public |
| 63.51 | AAAAA | Chapel Hill | 51.7% | 21-21 | 0 | Central (Carrollton) | AAAA |
| 63.09 | A Private | Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | 68.3% | 24-19 | 5 | Mount Vernon Presbyterian | A Private |
| 62.65 | AA | Heard County | 67.5% | 24-19 | 5 | Pepperell | AA |
| 62.39 | AAAAAA | Riverwood | 70.2% | 23-15 | 8 | Wheeler | AAAAAA |
| 61.85 | A Private | North Cobb Christian | 52.9% | 20-20 | 0 | Hebron Christian | A Private |
| 61.19 | AAAAAAA | East Coweta | 94.0% | 33-7 | 26 | New Manchester | AAAAA |
| 61.17 | AA | Northeast | 66.8% | 23-18 | 5 | Central (Macon) | AAA |
| 60.45 | AAAAA | Northgate | 57.5% | 21-20 | 1 | Locust Grove | AAAAA |
| 60.44 | AAAAAA | Brunswick | 87.9% | 28-12 | 16 | McIntosh County Academy | A Public |
| 60.40 | AAAAA | Hiram | 65.3% | 24-20 | 4 | Paulding County | AAAAAA |
| 60.08 | A Private | George Walton Academy | 68.0% | 22-16 | 6 | Stratford Academy | A Private |
| 59.71 | AAAA | Hardaway | 60.4% | 21-17 | 4 | Sumter County | AAA |
| 59.52 | AAAAAAA | Lambert | 70.1% | 24-17 | 7 | Lassiter | AAAAAA |
| 59.51 | AA | Elbert County | 52.7% | 21-20 | 1 | Whitefield Academy | A Private |
| 59.47 | AAAAAAA | Gainesville | 85.8% | 30-14 | 16 | Chattahoochee | AAAAAA |
| 59.20 | AA | Haralson County | 64.0% | 22-19 | 3 | Manchester | A Public |
| 59.17 | AA | Bremen | 77.6% | 24-14 | 10 | Bowdon | A Public |
| 58.99 | AAAAA | Cass | 61.8% | 21-17 | 4 | Adairsville | AAA |
| 58.97 | A Public | Commerce | 78.3% | 27-15 | 12 | Pickens | AAAA |
| 58.86 | AAAAAAA | Denmark | 87.7% | 28-9 | 19 | Banneker | AAAAA |
| 58.76 | A Public | Metter | 79.6% | 26-14 | 12 | South Effingham | AAAAAA |
| 58.70 | A Private | Calvary Day | 72.0% | 24-16 | 8 | Bulloch Academy | GISA AAA |
| 57.10 | AAAA | Arabia Mountain | 50.5% | 20-20 | 0 | M.L. King | AAAAA |
| 56.92 | AAAAAA | East Paulding | 81.0% | 26-13 | 13 | Campbell | AAAAAAA |
| 56.87 | AAAAAAA | Meadowcreek | 54.0% | 22-21 | 1 | Heritage (Conyers) | AAAAAA |
| 56.81 | A Public | Mitchell County | 64.8% | 27-21 | 6 | Worth County | AA |
| 56.78 | A Private | Savannah Country Day | 51.0% | 21-21 | 0 | Emanuel County Institute | A Public |
| 56.46 | GISA AAA | Frederica Academy | 51.1% | 21-21 | 0 | Valwood School | GISA AAA |
| 56.42 | AAAAAA | Habersham Central | 82.1% | 28-15 | 13 | Apalachee | AAAAA |
| 56.39 | AA | Jeff Davis | 77.3% | 27-17 | 10 | Atkinson County | A Public |
| 56.26 | AAAAAA | Kennesaw Mountain | 76.5% | 26-14 | 12 | Discovery | AAAAAAA |
| 56.12 | AAAAAA | Lee County | 99.3% | 40-0 | 40 | Maynard Jackson | AAAAA |
| 56.01 | AAAAAAA | South Gwinnett | 93.0% | 29-6 | 23 | Lithonia | AAAAA |
| 55.91 | GISA AAA | John Milledge Academy | 95.6% | 35-7 | 28 | Brentwood School | GISA AA |
| 55.58 | AAAAAAA | Newton | 95.4% | 33-6 | 27 | Alcovy | AAAAAA |
| 55.49 | AAAAA | Villa Rica | 53.2% | 21-21 | 0 | Temple | AA |
| 55.48 | AAAAA | Whitewater | 70.8% | 21-14 | 7 | Fayette County | AAAA |
| 54.98 | AAAAAAA | Roswell | 97.7% | 38-3 | 35 | Centennial | AAAAAA |
| 54.98 | AAAAAA | Evans | 80.9% | 28-14 | 14 | Hephzibah | AAA |
| 54.36 | AAA | Morgan County | 80.5% | 26-14 | 12 | Putnam County | AA |
| 54.09 | A Private | Mount Paran Christian | 61.7% | 22-20 | 2 | Mount Pisgah Christian | A Private |
| 53.61 | AAA | Liberty County | 71.4% | 23-15 | 8 | Bradwell Institute | AAAAAA |
| 53.13 | AAAAAAA | Pebblebrook | 89.0% | 30-13 | 17 | South Cobb | AAAAAA |
| 52.69 | AAA | Thomson | 93.4% | 31-7 | 24 | Grovetown | AAAAAA |
| 52.69 | AAAAA | Union Grove | 89.1% | 30-13 | 17 | Spalding | AAAA |
| 52.60 | AAAAA | Woodland (Stockbridge) | 72.7% | 24-14 | 10 | Luella | AAAA |
| 52.12 | AAAAA | Greenbrier | 73.5% | 27-17 | 10 | Harlem | AAA |
| 51.72 | AAAA | Howard | 81.1% | 27-14 | 13 | Southwest | AA |
| 51.60 | AAAA | LaGrange | 76.2% | 26-14 | 12 | McIntosh | AAAAA |
| 51.50 | AAAAAA | Dalton | 93.5% | 35-14 | 21 | Ridgeland | AAAA |
| 51.28 | AAAAA | Starr's Mill | 96.6% | 33-0 | 33 | Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | AAAA |
| 50.36 | A Public | Taylor County | 59.3% | 24-21 | 3 | Pike County | AAA |
| 50.01 | AAA | Monroe Area | 94.4% | 29-0 | 29 | Walnut Grove | AAAAA |
| 49.74 | AAA | Salem | 53.8% | 21-21 | 0 | Rockdale County | AAAAAA |
| 49.49 | AA | Model | 64.1% | 21-18 | 3 | LaFayette | AAA |
| 48.93 | A Public | Lanier County | 55.3% | 23-21 | 2 | Berrien | AA |
| 48.74 | AAA | West Hall | 50.3% | 23-23 | 0 | East Hall | AAAA |
| 48.64 | A Public | Marion County | 82.3% | 27-13 | 14 | Terrell County | A Public |
| 48.33 | AAA | Cherokee Bluff | 76.3% | 28-18 | 10 | Chestatee | AAAA |
| 48.18 | GISA AAA | Tiftarea Academy | 81.1% | 27-14 | 13 | Community Christian | GAPPS AA |
| 48.06 | A Public | Telfair County | 71.3% | 21-14 | 7 | Jenkins County | A Public |
| 47.52 | AAAAAA | North Atlanta | 87.0% | 27-9 | 18 | Midtown | AAAAA |
| 46.98 | AAAAA | Tri-Cities | 72.1% | 26-17 | 9 | Stone Mountain | AAAAA |
| 46.36 | A Public | Gordon Lee | 70.6% | 25-17 | 8 | Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe | AAA |
| 46.34 | A Public | Warren County | 79.2% | 24-14 | 10 | Westside (Augusta) | AA |
| 46.03 | AAA | Jackson | 90.8% | 28-7 | 21 | Laney | AA |
| 45.69 | AAA | Southeast Bulloch | 80.6% | 26-14 | 12 | Brantley County | AAA |
| 45.26 | A Public | Johnson County | 78.6% | 27-14 | 13 | East Laurens | AA |
| 44.96 | A Private | Deerfield-Windsor | 67.8% | 21-14 | 7 | Miller County | A Public |
| 43.97 | AAAA | Jenkins | 93.1% | 31-7 | 24 | Beach | AAA |
| 43.86 | AAA | Franklin County | 84.7% | 27-10 | 17 | Banks County | AA |
| 43.71 | AAA | Mary Persons | 95.7% | 34-6 | 28 | McDonough | AAAA |
| 43.57 | AAAA | Carver (Columbus) | 97.7% | 35-0 | 35 | Spencer | AAAA |
| 43.42 | A Private | Athens Christian | 74.8% | 28-20 | 8 | St. Francis | A Private |
| 42.93 | A Public | Trion | 70.4% | 24-17 | 7 | Coosa | AA |
| 42.53 | A Private | Darlington | 94.2% | 33-7 | 26 | Lakeview Academy | A Private |
| 42.04 | AAAA | Northwest Whitfield | 91.8% | 31-9 | 22 | Gordon Central | AA |
| 42.02 | GISA AA | Gatewood School | 94.7% | 30-0 | 30 | Edmund Burke Academy | GISA AA |
| 41.96 | A Private | Christian Heritage | 95.0% | 33-6 | 27 | Landmark Christian | A Private |
| 41.73 | AAAA | New Hampstead | 94.1% | 34-7 | 27 | Johnson (Savannah) | AAA |
| 41.20 | A Private | Tattnall Square | 83.3% | 28-14 | 14 | Hawkinsville | A Public |
| 41.06 | AAAAA | Jackson County | 85.5% | 28-13 | 15 | East Jackson | AAA |
| 40.78 | A Private | Strong Rock Christian | 64.1% | 24-20 | 4 | Greenville | A Public |
| 40.38 | A Private | Brookstone | 87.1% | 28-10 | 18 | Walker | A Private |
| 38.41 | A Public | Mount Zion (Carroll) | 85.3% | 28-13 | 15 | Creekside Christian | GISA AAA |
| 37.66 | A Private | King's Ridge Christian | 53.1% | 20-20 | 0 | Greene County | A Public |
| 37.21 | AAAAAAA | Dunwoody | 78.5% | 26-14 | 12 | North Springs | AAAAA |
| 37.11 | AAA | Coahulla Creek | 63.3% | 22-19 | 3 | Southeast Whitfield | AAAA |
| 36.82 | A Public | Social Circle | 65.0% | 27-21 | 6 | Providence Christian | A Private |
| 36.74 | A Public | B.E.S.T. Academy | 80.5% | 24-12 | 12 | North Clayton | AAAA |
| 36.29 | AAAA | Miller Grove | 87.9% | 26-7 | 19 | Lakeside (Atlanta) | AAAAAA |
| 35.39 | A Private | Loganville Christian | 69.0% | 24-17 | 7 | Bethlehem Christian Academy | GISA AAA |
| 35.35 | AAAAAA | Morrow | 90.3% | 28-9 | 19 | Forest Park | AAAAA |
| 34.45 | A Private | Aquinas | 96.0% | 34-0 | 34 | Cross Creek | AAA |
| 34.25 | AA | Bacon County | 89.0% | 28-12 | 16 | Long County | AAA |
| 33.53 | AAAAA | Chamblee | 82.1% | 27-14 | 13 | Lumpkin County | AAA |
| 32.48 | AAAAA | Woodland (Cartersville) | 93.7% | 28-0 | 28 | Osborne | AAAAAA |
| 32.45 | GISA AA | Thomas Jefferson | 75.9% | 27-17 | 10 | Robert Toombs Academy | GISA AA |
| 32.22 | A Public | Lincoln County | 97.2% | 35-0 | 35 | Bryan County | A Public |
| 31.94 | A Public | Towns County | 65.4% | 21-16 | 5 | Armuchee | A Public |
| 30.33 | A Public | Montgomery County | 92.6% | 31-8 | 23 | Portal | A Public |
| 30.19 | AAAA | Dougherty | 92.2% | 31-8 | 23 | Kendrick | AAAA |
| 29.77 | AAA | Redan | 86.5% | 28-14 | 14 | Druid Hills | AAAA |
| 26.00 | AAAA | Rutland | 85.9% | 28-14 | 14 | ACE Charter | A Public |
| 25.63 | AAAA | Jordan | 80.1% | 28-16 | 12 | Randolph-Clay | A Public |
| 24.47 | AA | Lamar County | 97.0% | 35-3 | 32 | Crawford County | A Public |
| 23.95 | A Public | Chattahoochee County | 97.9% | 35-0 | 35 | McNair | AA |
| 23.91 | A Public | Georgia Military College | 83.6% | 27-14 | 13 | Central (Talbotton) | A Public |
| 20.89 | AAAAAAA | Berkmar | 88.5% | 28-8 | 20 | Clarkston | AAAAA |
| 20.75 | A Public | Wilkinson County | 91.7% | 28-6 | 22 | Twiggs County | A Public |
| 15.56 | A Public | Wheeler County | 93.1% | 34-12 | 22 | Glascock County | A Public |
| 10.05 | GAPPS AA | Calvary Christian | 97.1% | 34-0 | 34 | Georgia Christian | GISA AA |
| 6.92 | GAPPS AA | Pinecrest Academy | 96.2% | 34-0 | 34 | Lake Oconee Academy | A Private |
| 6.58 | GISA AA | Briarwood Academy | 99.2% | 40-0 | 40 | John Hancock Academy | GISA AA |
| -5.44 | GAPPS A | Rock Springs Christian | 89.7% | 29-12 | 17 | Harvester Christian | GAPPS A |
Aug 28
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 70.46 | AAAAAA | Lovejoy | 64.8% | 22-19 | 3 | Carver (Atlanta) | AAA |
| 68.11 | AA | Rabun County | 83.5% | 28-14 | 14 | Pace Academy | AA |
| 65.37 | AAAA | Mays | 54.7% | 22-21 | 1 | Riverdale | AAAA |
| 52.58 | A Public | Macon County | 79.7% | 27-14 | 13 | Dooly County | A Public |

