Maxwell Week 2 projections

ajc.com

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Sept. 10

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Prob Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
60.42AAAAmericus-Sumter0.59221 - 174HardawayAAAA
54.22AAAALaGrange0.59821 - 192Northside (Columbus)AAAAA

Sept. 11

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Prob Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
96.09AAAAAAAGrayson0.69526 - 197McEachernAAAAAAA
90.27AAAAAAAArcher0.59423 - 203Warner RobinsAAAAA
86.73AAAAAABuford0.76928 - 1711North CobbAAAAAAA
84.76AAAAAAValdosta0.68126 - 197Tift CountyAAAAAAA
83.77AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett0.92334 - 1222Jones CountyAAAAA
82.05AAAAACoffee0.52220 - 200BainbridgeAAAA
80.15AAAAACartersville0.85928 - 1018West ForsythAAAAAAA
79.92AAAAAAAParkview0.89433 - 1419Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
79.51AAAAAWare County0.61021 - 183Richmond HillAAAAAA
79.46AAAAAAAHillgrove0.67425 - 196KellAAAAAA
79.22AAAAAAACamden County0.61123 - 203Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
78.37AAAPeach County0.73625 - 1411Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAAA
77.68A PublicIrwin County0.65922 - 175FitzgeraldAA
76.41AAAPierce County0.50521 - 210Wayne CountyAAAAA
75.57AAAAAAALowndes0.97236 - 036GriffinAAAAA
75.53AAACrisp County0.66322 - 166Houston CountyAAAAAA
75.25A PublicBrooks County0.67124 - 186CairoAAAA
75.10AAAAAACarrollton0.71725 - 169NewnanAAAAAAA
74.34AACallaway0.64127 - 216TroupAAAA
73.93AARabun County0.70428 - 217Prince Avenue ChristianA Private
73.85AAAAAVeterans0.59521 - 174West LaurensAAAA
73.37AAAGreater Atlanta Christian0.77628 - 1711LovettAA
73.13AAARockmart0.54121 - 201CedartownAAAA
71.28AAAAAAAHarrison0.85830 - 1416North ForsythAAAAAAA
70.63AAABurke County0.63125 - 214Washington CountyAA
70.61AAAOconee County0.75923 - 1310Cedar ShoalsAAAA
70.58AAAAAAACherokee0.66221 - 156SequoyahAAAAAA
69.83AAAAFlowery Branch0.65922 - 175Dawson CountyAAA
69.55AAAAADutchtown0.80427 - 1413WheelerAAAAAA
69.55AAThomasville0.66526 - 206Thomas County CentralAAAA
69.44A PublicDublin0.74128 - 199Dodge CountyAA
69.28AAAAAStockbridge0.75422 - 139Douglas CountyAAAAAA
68.86AAAAAAACollins Hill0.86527 - 720SprayberryAAAAAA
68.76AAAAJefferson0.82631 - 1813Central GwinnettAAAAAA
68.11AAAANorth Oconee0.53121 - 210OlaAAAAA
67.62AAAAAAANorth Paulding0.77628 - 1711South PauldingAAAAAA
66.86AAAAAHarris County0.50721 - 210PerryAAAA
66.57AAAAAADalton0.73427 - 198RidgelandAAAA
66.05AAAAAAAllatoona0.93630 - 030DenmarkAAAAAAA
65.77AAAHart County0.50521 - 210White CountyAAA
65.76AAAAAAWinder-Barrow0.54124 - 213EastsideAAAAA
65.61AAAABenedictine0.83629 - 1415Effingham CountyAAAAAA
63.65AAAAANorthgate0.53921 - 201Locust GroveAAAAA
62.88AAAAAAAEtowah0.78827 - 1413Forsyth CentralAAAAAAA
61.64AAHeard County0.63122 - 184PepperellAA
61.43AAANorth Hall0.64624 - 204Stephens CountyAAA
61.19AAAAAHiram0.63426 - 215Paulding CountyAAAAAA
61.14AAAAAASouth Effingham0.64422 - 175MetterA Public
61.01A PublicPelham0.67424 - 186Early CountyAA
60.91A PrivateHoly Innocents0.70724 - 168Madison CountyAAAA
60.90AAAAAAASouth Gwinnett0.86728 - 1315MeadowcreekAAAAAAA
60.82AAAAAJonesboro0.54920 - 182Eagle's LandingAAAAA
60.33AAAThomson0.82227 - 1413GrovetownAAAAAA
60.31A PublicCommerce0.65925 - 205Union CountyAA
59.63AABleckley County0.66524 - 204Wilcox CountyA Public
59.08AAAAAAAWalton0.95235 - 728PopeAAAAAA
58.59A PrivateHebron Christian0.62721 - 165North Cobb ChristianA Private
58.04AAAAAAAWoodstock0.84927 - 1215River RidgeAAAAAA
57.94A PublicManchester0.57323 - 212Haralson CountyAA
57.64AAAAAAALambert0.56021 - 192LassiterAAAAAA
57.58AAAAAAHabersham Central0.67026 - 206ApalacheeAAAAA
56.85AAAAAAAEast Coweta0.94033 - 627New ManchesterAAAAA
56.67A PrivateSavannah Country Day0.54424 - 222Emanuel County InstituteA Public
56.45A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)0.53121 - 210Mount Vernon PresbyterianA Private
56.21AAAAAUnion Grove0.80128 - 1612SpaldingAAAA
55.98A PrivateWesleyan0.88928 - 820Mount de SalesA Private
55.11A PrivateSavannah Christian0.79328 - 1513Screven CountyA Public
54.62AAAAPickens0.73826 - 1610ChattoogaAA
54.37AAAAAALee County0.99040 - 040Maynard JacksonAAAAA
54.19AAAAACass0.63521 - 147AdairsvilleAAA
53.50AAAAAAKennesaw Mountain0.62421 - 156DiscoveryAAAAAAA
53.27A PrivateGeorge Walton Academy0.63821 - 147Stratford AcademyA Private
53.17AAAAAAAPebblebrook0.82328 - 1414South CobbAAAAAA
52.89AAAAAAEast Paulding0.86528 - 1315CampbellAAAAAAA
52.58AAAAAStarr's Mill0.93331 - 724Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
51.72AAAAAWhitewater0.62621 - 174Fayette CountyAAAA
51.12AAAAAWoodland (Stockbridge)0.70223 - 158LuellaAAAA
51.06AAAAAGreenbrier0.55321 - 201HarlemAAA
50.54AABremen0.90727 - 027BowdonA Public
50.48AAJeff Davis0.75627 - 1611Atkinson CountyA Public
50.47AAAAAABrunswick0.91931 - 724McIntosh County AcademyA Public
50.44AAAAAAEvans0.86328 - 1315HephzibahAAA
50.35AAAAAAANewton0.96635 - 035AlcovyAAAAAA
50.29A PrivateMount Paran Christian0.73927 - 1710Mount Pisgah ChristianA Private
49.81AAAAShaw0.66021 - 147Chattahoochee CountyA Public
49.22AAAACentral (Carrollton)0.81928 - 1414TempleAA
49.00AAASoutheast Bulloch0.68924 - 177Brantley CountyAAA
48.99AAAACarver (Columbus)0.93933 - 726SpencerAAAA
48.90AAAAAMcIntosh0.53521 - 201HamptonAAAA
48.60AAAPike County0.55621 - 201Taylor CountyA Public
48.45A PublicMitchell County0.87531 - 1417Worth CountyAA
48.37AAAAHeritage (Ringgold)0.79228 - 1513RinggoldAAA
47.06AAAMonroe Area0.91930 - 723Walnut GroveAAAAA
46.45AAAWest Hall0.60527 - 225East HallAAAA
46.41AAAAChestatee0.70227 - 207Cherokee BluffAAA
46.09A PrivateSt. Francis0.63325 - 214Athens ChristianA Private
44.94AAAMary Persons0.96937 - 631McDonoughAAAA
44.82AAModel0.52321 - 201LaFayetteAAA
44.67AAToombs County0.89728 - 721Tattnall CountyAAA
44.39AAALakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe0.66221 - 165Gordon LeeA Public
44.32AAAMorgan County0.89531 - 1219Putnam CountyAA
44.10AAAAAAAlexander0.96637 - 631Lithia SpringsAAAAA
44.04A PublicTelfair County0.65221 - 156Jenkins CountyA Public
44.02A PrivateBrookstone0.79327 - 1413WalkerA Private
43.89AABerrien0.75928 - 208Lanier CountyA Public
43.21AAAFranklin County0.76724 - 1410Banks CountyAA
42.00A PublicTrion0.76727 - 1413CoosaAA
41.32AAFannin County0.81527 - 1314GilmerAAA
41.20A PublicWarren County0.71824 - 159Westside (Augusta)AA
41.19A PrivateChristian Heritage0.87328 - 1018Landmark ChristianA Private
40.86A PrivateAquinas0.86928 - 820Cross CreekAAA
40.49AAAAColumbus0.78727 - 1413PacelliA Private
40.42A PrivateEagle's Landing Christian0.99745 - 045Heritage SchoolA Private
39.19A PrivateStrong Rock Christian0.63822 - 184GreenvilleA Public
38.97A PublicJohnson County0.84131 - 1615East LaurensAA
38.46AAAAAAMorrow0.91928 - 622Forest ParkAAAAA
37.90AAAANorthwest Whitfield0.92330 - 624Gordon CentralAA
37.68A PrivateDarlington0.96135 - 035Lakeview AcademyA Private
37.30AAARichmond Academy0.90928 - 622Glenn HillsAA
36.86A PrivateTattnall Square0.84928 - 1414HawkinsvilleA Public
36.75A PublicMiller County0.55220 - 173Deerfield-WindsorA Private
34.83AAWashington0.88028 - 919KendrickAAAA
34.66AABacon County0.78327 - 1413Long CountyAAA
34.20AAAASoutheast Whitfield0.63122 - 193Coahulla CreekAAA
31.12A PublicMontgomery County0.86731 - 1417PortalA Public
28.27AAAAAWoodland (Cartersville)0.93331 - 625OsborneAAAAAA
25.00A PublicSocial Circle0.55421 - 201Providence ChristianA Private
24.26AALamar County0.96336 - 630Crawford CountyA Public
20.87A PublicGeorgia Military College0.59321 - 192Central (Talbotton)A Public
10.81A PublicWheeler County0.91632 - 1022Glascock CountyA Public
-8.18A PublicBaconton Charter0.97135 - 035Pataula CharterA Public

Sept. 12

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Prob Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
63.66AAAAMays0.81628 - 1414RiverdaleAAAA
62.46AAAAAALovejoy0.62923 - 203Carver (Atlanta)AAA
57.30AAElbert County0.66022 - 175Whitefield AcademyA Private
39.97A PublicB.E.S.T. Academy0.76221 - 138North ClaytonAAAA

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