Maxwell Week 12 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Nov 03

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
55.04AAAABenedictine95.9%35-728New HampsteadAAAA
45.76AAFellowship Christian84.9%28-1315Union CountyAA
45.08AAAAStephenson79.7%28-1711Southwest DeKalbAAAA
44.71A Division IMetter83.1%17-017Screven CountyA Division I
42.36AAAAWestminster (Atlanta)87.0%28-1018Miller GroveAAAA
33.42AAAAATucker77.4%21-714Arabia MountainAAAAA
17.35AAAAAAWoodward Academy99.9%43-043Forest ParkAAAAAA
15.25AANortheast97.9%35-035RutlandAA
8.51A Division IISchley County99.4%40-040GreenvilleA Division II
5.36AAAAPace Academy99.8%42-042Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
0.61A Division IIMacon County97.3%34-034Marion CountyA Division II
-1.48A Division IIManchester99.5%40-040Taylor CountyA Division II
-21.23A Division IIGeorgia Military Prep98.0%41-635Twiggs CountyA Division II
-55.85A Division IIChattahoochee County100.0%50-050Central (Talbotton)A Division II

Nov 04

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
85.12AAAAAAALambert50.9%21-201MiltonAAAAAAA
82.53AAAAAAThomas County Central83.2%28-1414Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAAA
76.91AAAAAWare County72.2%24-1410CoffeeAAAAA
75.73AAAAAARoswell77.2%31-2110AlpharettaAAAAAA
75.32AAAAAAAGrayson83.1%28-1414ParkviewAAAAAAA
73.51AAAAAAALowndes65.4%21-147Camden CountyAAAAAAA
72.69AAAAAAAMarietta61.8%22-193North PauldingAAAAAAA
70.42AAAAAAANorcross71.0%28-217North GwinnettAAAAAAA
68.66AAAAAADouglas County55.5%28-271South PauldingAAAAAA
67.79AAAAAAAMill Creek97.2%38-632Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
67.50AAAAAAAEast Coweta75.8%29-209PebblebrookAAAAAAA
67.47AAACedar Grove94.4%34-628Carver (Atlanta)AAA
67.26AAAAAAASouth Forsyth72.8%24-1410West ForsythAAAAAAA
64.01AAAHart County50.0%21-210Monroe AreaAAA
63.85AAAAStarr's Mill61.7%21-192WhitewaterAAAA
63.80AAAATroup89.5%35-1718LaGrangeAAAA
63.25AAAAAABrunswick76.7%27-1413Effingham CountyAAAAAA
63.11AAAAAAAColquitt County98.9%41-041Richmond HillAAAAAAA
62.35AAAAAAABrookwood89.1%31-1318South GwinnettAAAAAAA
62.25AAAAAJefferson82.2%23-716EastsideAAAAA
61.68AAAAAAANewton77.7%23-1310ArcherAAAAAAA
59.59AAAAHeritage (Ringgold)64.4%30-264Central (Carrollton)AAAA
58.96A Division ISwainsboro76.8%22-139DublinA Division I
58.86AAAAAAHouston County93.5%35-1223VeteransAAAAAA
58.82AAAABainbridge86.6%28-1018CairoAAAA
58.68AAAStephens County89.3%33-1419Hebron ChristianAAA
58.20AAAAAAHughes99.1%41-041Paulding CountyAAAAAA
57.85AAAAAAAllatoona60.1%21-192River RidgeAAAAAA
56.87AAAAALithia Springs63.0%27-216MaysAAAAA
56.30AAAAAAAMcEachern81.5%27-1314HillgroveAAAAAAA
55.73AAAAAAACollins Hill89.3%26-026DaculaAAAAAAA
55.53AAAAADutchtown83.5%24-717OlaAAAAA
55.48AACook68.4%30-237Worth CountyAA
54.53AAAACedartown98.3%35-035Northwest WhitfieldAAAA
51.92AAAAHoly Innocents72.2%21-138Hapeville CharterAAAA
51.88AAAAAClarke Central75.1%27-1611Winder-BarrowAAAAA
51.01AAAPeach County84.9%28-1315JacksonAAA
50.67A Division IPrince Avenue Christian95.1%34-628Social CircleA Division I
50.55AAAAAARome97.3%36-036EtowahAAAAAA
50.03AAAAAAAWalton98.8%40-040WheelerAAAAAAA
49.99AAAAAAABuford99.7%42-042Central GwinnettAAAAAAA
49.93AAAAAJones County83.7%24-717Union GroveAAAAA
49.78A Division IDarlington89.0%35-1817TrionA Division I
49.54AAAMorgan County60.1%21-183HarlemAAA
49.47AAFitzgerald96.5%35-629BerrienAA
48.64GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy79.3%29-1811Tattnall SquareGIAA AAAA-AAA
48.34AAAAAAAlexander53.9%22-211East PauldingAAAAAA
47.99AAAAAGreater Atlanta Christian54.3%21-201CentennialAAAAA
46.44AAASavannah Christian79.4%29-1811Liberty CountyAAA
46.26AAAAAALee County98.7%40-040Tift CountyAAAAAA
46.15AAAAAStatesboro58.1%24-213JenkinsAAAAA
45.45AARockmart92.0%38-1721North MurrayAA
45.25A Division ILamar County76.8%28-1711Heard CountyA Division I
44.98A Division IWhitefield Academy76.3%28-199Mount Pisgah ChristianA Division I
44.94AAAAAAGlynn Academy75.3%26-1412Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
44.30AAAAAAGainesville98.7%38-038Jackson CountyAAAAAA
44.21AAPierce County92.5%33-726Tattnall CountyAA
43.90AAAABaldwin50.7%26-251GriffinAAAA
43.45AAAAAAAKennesaw Mountain97.0%41-1130CherokeeAAAAAAA
42.95AAAAAAShiloh84.9%29-1415Habersham CentralAAAAAA
42.57AAAAAAANorth Cobb99.7%42-042OsborneAAAAAAA
42.40AAAAdairsville89.9%34-1420Coahulla CreekAAA
42.28AAAAAABlessed Trinity94.6%28-028LassiterAAAAAA
41.93AAAALovett82.7%24-816Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAA
41.72AAVidalia61.0%22-202Toombs CountyAA
41.65AAAAAAAPeachtree Ridge79.1%22-1012DuluthAAAAAAA
41.24A Division ISt. Francis87.6%28-1216Mount VernonA Division I
40.95AAAWesleyan52.0%21-201PickensAAA
40.91AAAAAAEvans69.6%21-147South EffinghamAAAAAA
40.88AAAAWestside (Macon)53.6%20-182HowardAAAA
39.32AAAAAAAWestlake99.5%42-042CampbellAAAAAAA
39.28A Division IICharlton County80.3%24-1212Lanier CountyA Division II
39.17AAAAStockbridge96.8%36-630McDonoughAAAA
38.22AAALong County51.9%20-191Johnson (Savannah)AAA
38.16AAAABurke County97.8%40-040Southeast BullochAAAA
37.82AAAthens Academy89.1%30-1218East JacksonAA
37.71AAAAAAMundy's Mill82.6%26-1214MorrowAAAAAA
37.14AAAAAANorth Atlanta89.9%31-1219DunwoodyAAAAAA
35.79AAAAAASprayberry91.7%35-1421PopeAAAAAA
35.76AAAGilmer73.2%28-208White CountyAAA
35.49AAAAAAADenmark98.5%36-036Forsyth CentralAAAAAAA
35.42AAPutnam County87.8%31-1417Washington CountyAA
35.23A Division IBrooks County98.9%41-041PelhamA Division I
35.14AAAppling County96.5%33-033Brantley CountyAA
35.08AASumter County71.2%24-1410Jeff DavisAA
34.34AAAANorth Oconee99.5%38-038Cherokee BluffAAAA
34.21A Division IIBowdon95.4%35-728Mount Zion (Carroll)A Division II
33.44AAAAACreekside99.2%37-037BannekerAAAAA
33.44AAFannin County84.1%28-1414Haralson CountyAA
32.93GIAA AAAA-AAAStratford Academy81.8%28-1414First PresbyterianGIAA AAAA-AAA
32.84AAAAAANorth Forsyth94.8%33-330ApalacheeAAAAAA
32.75AAASandy Creek99.3%38-038DouglassAAA
31.93AAAAPerry99.6%42-042West LaurensAAAA
31.80AAAAAMcIntosh74.0%27-1611Harris CountyAAAAA
31.33AAAAAAMarist98.8%42-042RiverwoodAAAAAA
31.33AAARinggold91.4%33-1221Gordon LeeAAA
30.99AAAAEast Forsyth66.3%21-147North HallAAAA
30.95AAAAAALovejoy94.6%34-727JonesboroAAAAAA
30.22AACallaway98.0%32-032Landmark ChristianAA
30.22AASpencer60.4%26-215ACE CharterAA
30.14AABanks County55.5%24-222Providence ChristianAA
29.70AAAATrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)97.3%31-031Fayette CountyAAAA
29.07AAAAHampton92.0%28-028LuellaAAAA
28.89A Division IIWashington-Wilkes76.5%26-1412Greene CountyA Division II
28.75GIAA AAAA-AAASt. Anne-Pacelli93.5%34-727Westfield SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
28.68AAAAWestover75.7%21-129ShawAAAA
28.57AAAAAKell98.5%41-041ChattahoocheeAAAAA
28.36A Division IJasper County54.7%21-201Oglethorpe CountyA Division I
26.74GIAA AACentral Fellowship Christian59.6%26-215Thomas JeffersonGIAA A
26.54AAAAAANewnan97.2%36-036New ManchesterAAAAAA
25.93AAAMary Persons96.3%36-729Pike CountyAAA
25.44AAAASonoraville97.5%36-036Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
24.96AAAAWalnut Grove92.2%34-1321ChestateeAAAA
24.79AAMount Paran Christian64.5%21-174WashingtonAA
24.65A Division IITurner County53.0%27-261Atkinson CountyA Division II
24.63AAAAAGreenbrier61.9%20-146Bradwell InstituteAAAAA
24.31AAAAACambridge99.7%42-042North SpringsAAAAA
24.23GIAA AAAA-AAABrookwood School75.0%28-208Valwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
23.68A Division IDade County80.2%27-1413ArmucheeA Division I
23.23A Division IIrwin County99.9%45-045Bacon CountyA Division I
23.13GIAA AAAA-AAABrookstone89.2%30-1218Heritage (Newnan)GIAA AAAA-AAA
21.90AAAAAASt. Pius X98.2%35-035South CobbAAAAAA
21.86A Division IIEmanuel County Institute89.9%31-1219Montgomery CountyA Division II
21.38AAABremen90.9%27-027Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
21.26A Division IIWilcox County92.9%34-925Wheeler CountyA Division II
21.25A Division IISeminole County58.2%17-143Miller CountyA Division II
20.00GIAA AAAA-AAABethlehem Christian Academy77.3%27-1413George Walton AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
19.67A Division IJefferson County86.4%30-1416East LaurensA Division I
17.68AAAAADecatur96.5%40-1030M.L. KingAAAAA
17.60AAAAAMaynard Jackson97.8%33-033Tri-CitiesAAAAA
17.52A Division IPepperell94.7%31-031CoosaA Division I
17.48A Division IBryan County85.2%28-1315ClaxtonA Division I
17.33AAACalvary Day99.6%44-044BeachAAA
16.12GIAA AAAA-AAAFrederica Academy72.1%24-159St. Andrew's SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
15.99AAAAAASequoyah99.5%41-041WoodstockAAAAAA
15.43AAAAAFlowery Branch98.7%41-041Heritage (Conyers)AAAAA
13.55AAALaFayette85.1%28-1315RidgelandAAA
13.52A Division IIJenkins County96.9%35-035PortalA Division II
12.88AAAAAAAMeadowcreek99.5%42-042BerkmarAAAAAAA
12.32A Division IIAquinas95.7%37-829Warren CountyA Division II
12.15A Division IIJohnson County99.3%40-040Hancock CentralA Division II
12.07AAAAAAAlcovy92.2%31-724Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
11.93A Division IILincoln County97.6%35-035Towns CountyA Division II
10.74AAAAAChamblee98.2%38-038LithoniaAAAAA
10.59AAThomson99.8%40-040Westside (Augusta)AA
10.23AASouthwest80.4%27-1413Central (Macon)AA
10.03AAAAAWarner Robins99.9%47-047Locust GroveAAAAA
10.03AAAAStone Mountain68.2%21-147Druid HillsAAAA
9.85AAAOconee County99.9%48-048Franklin CountyAAA
9.65GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor91.2%32-1220Southland AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
9.32AAEagle's Landing Christian99.3%43-043McNairAA
8.78GIAA AAAA-AAAPinewood Christian86.2%34-1915Bulloch AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
8.57AAAAMadison County97.9%40-040East HallAAAA
8.37GIAA AABrentwood School89.0%32-1418Gatewood SchoolGIAA AA
7.71GIAA AABriarwood Academy74.0%21-138Edmund Burke AcademyGIAA AA
7.51GIAA AAAA-AAATerrell Academy82.2%31-1813Tiftarea AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
7.49A Division IIDooly County96.6%35-035HawkinsvilleA Division II
3.32AAGordon Central68.7%21-147Murray CountyAA
3.25AAButler74.0%23-149JoseyAA
3.04AAALumpkin County99.5%41-041West HallAAA
2.77AAAAANorthgate99.4%41-041DrewAAAAA
0.88A Division IITerrell County93.6%30-030Randolph-ClayA Division II
0.40AAASavannah Country Day98.1%34-034GrovesAAA
-0.01A Division IIWilkinson County92.8%33-726Glascock CountyA Division II
-1.10A Division ITemple98.9%43-340Crawford CountyA Division I
-1.28AAARichmond Academy97.0%34-034SalemAAA
-1.36A Division IITelfair County99.0%46-739TreutlenA Division II
-1.85GAPPS AACherokee Christian93.7%36-1422Lanier ChristianGAPPS AA
-3.55GIAA AAPiedmont Academy76.9%27-1413Lake Oconee AcademyA Division II
-3.68AALaney99.8%41-041Glenn HillsAA
-5.89GIAA AAAA-AAALakeview Academy88.9%29-1019Loganville ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
-6.32AAColumbia99.8%40-040TowersAA
-7.80GIAA AASouthwest Georgia Academy82.8%23-716Georgia ChristianGIAA AA
-8.63AAAAAMidtown91.8%28-622Johnson (Gainesville)AAAA
-10.16GAPPS AAKing's Academy88.9%27-621Creekside ChristianGAPPS AA
-10.61AAAAAALakeside (Atlanta)98.2%35-035ClarkstonAAAA
-12.39AATherrell96.2%24-024B.E.S.T. AcademyAA
-14.08AAAHephzibah99.8%45-045Cross CreekAAA
-20.89AAKendrick88.7%31-1417JordanAA
-24.35GAPPS AACalvary Christian90.7%35-1421Rock Springs ChristianGAPPS AA
-25.38GAPPS AAPinecrest Academy61.3%27-216WalkerAA
-25.62GIAA ARobert Toombs Academy98.9%46-739Memorial DayGIAA A
-34.71GIAA AFlint River Academy79.8%23-1013Harvester ChristianGIAA A
-41.76A Division IIMitchell County100.0%44-044Baconton CharterA Division II
-50.85GAPPS AASkipstone Academy100.0%47-047Community ChristianGAPPS AA
-61.24GIAA AFullington Academy99.8%48-048St. Mary's AcademyGIAA AA
-73.54GIAA AAAugusta Prep100.0%55-055GSICA Division II