These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
Nov 03
Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
55.04 | AAAA | Benedictine | 95.9% | 35-7 | 28 | New Hampstead | AAAA |
45.76 | AA | Fellowship Christian | 84.9% | 28-13 | 15 | Union County | AA |
45.08 | AAAA | Stephenson | 79.7% | 28-17 | 11 | Southwest DeKalb | AAAA |
44.71 | A Division I | Metter | 83.1% | 17-0 | 17 | Screven County | A Division I |
42.36 | AAAA | Westminster (Atlanta) | 87.0% | 28-10 | 18 | Miller Grove | AAAA |
33.42 | AAAAA | Tucker | 77.4% | 21-7 | 14 | Arabia Mountain | AAAAA |
17.35 | AAAAAA | Woodward Academy | 99.9% | 43-0 | 43 | Forest Park | AAAAAA |
15.25 | AA | Northeast | 97.9% | 35-0 | 35 | Rutland | AA |
8.51 | A Division II | Schley County | 99.4% | 40-0 | 40 | Greenville | A Division II |
5.36 | AAAA | Pace Academy | 99.8% | 42-0 | 42 | Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | AAAA |
0.61 | A Division II | Macon County | 97.3% | 34-0 | 34 | Marion County | A Division II |
-1.48 | A Division II | Manchester | 99.5% | 40-0 | 40 | Taylor County | A Division II |
-21.23 | A Division II | Georgia Military Prep | 98.0% | 41-6 | 35 | Twiggs County | A Division II |
-55.85 | A Division II | Chattahoochee County | 100.0% | 50-0 | 50 | Central (Talbotton) | A Division II |
Nov 04
Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
85.12 | AAAAAAA | Lambert | 50.9% | 21-20 | 1 | Milton | AAAAAAA |
82.53 | AAAAAA | Thomas County Central | 83.2% | 28-14 | 14 | Northside (Warner Robins) | AAAAAA |
76.91 | AAAAA | Ware County | 72.2% | 24-14 | 10 | Coffee | AAAAA |
75.73 | AAAAAA | Roswell | 77.2% | 31-21 | 10 | Alpharetta | AAAAAA |
75.32 | AAAAAAA | Grayson | 83.1% | 28-14 | 14 | Parkview | AAAAAAA |
73.51 | AAAAAAA | Lowndes | 65.4% | 21-14 | 7 | Camden County | AAAAAAA |
72.69 | AAAAAAA | Marietta | 61.8% | 22-19 | 3 | North Paulding | AAAAAAA |
70.42 | AAAAAAA | Norcross | 71.0% | 28-21 | 7 | North Gwinnett | AAAAAAA |
68.66 | AAAAAA | Douglas County | 55.5% | 28-27 | 1 | South Paulding | AAAAAA |
67.79 | AAAAAAA | Mill Creek | 97.2% | 38-6 | 32 | Mountain View | AAAAAAA |
67.50 | AAAAAAA | East Coweta | 75.8% | 29-20 | 9 | Pebblebrook | AAAAAAA |
67.47 | AAA | Cedar Grove | 94.4% | 34-6 | 28 | Carver (Atlanta) | AAA |
67.26 | AAAAAAA | South Forsyth | 72.8% | 24-14 | 10 | West Forsyth | AAAAAAA |
64.01 | AAA | Hart County | 50.0% | 21-21 | 0 | Monroe Area | AAA |
63.85 | AAAA | Starr's Mill | 61.7% | 21-19 | 2 | Whitewater | AAAA |
63.80 | AAAA | Troup | 89.5% | 35-17 | 18 | LaGrange | AAAA |
63.25 | AAAAAA | Brunswick | 76.7% | 27-14 | 13 | Effingham County | AAAAAA |
63.11 | AAAAAAA | Colquitt County | 98.9% | 41-0 | 41 | Richmond Hill | AAAAAAA |
62.35 | AAAAAAA | Brookwood | 89.1% | 31-13 | 18 | South Gwinnett | AAAAAAA |
62.25 | AAAAA | Jefferson | 82.2% | 23-7 | 16 | Eastside | AAAAA |
61.68 | AAAAAAA | Newton | 77.7% | 23-13 | 10 | Archer | AAAAAAA |
59.59 | AAAA | Heritage (Ringgold) | 64.4% | 30-26 | 4 | Central (Carrollton) | AAAA |
58.96 | A Division I | Swainsboro | 76.8% | 22-13 | 9 | Dublin | A Division I |
58.86 | AAAAAA | Houston County | 93.5% | 35-12 | 23 | Veterans | AAAAAA |
58.82 | AAAA | Bainbridge | 86.6% | 28-10 | 18 | Cairo | AAAA |
58.68 | AAA | Stephens County | 89.3% | 33-14 | 19 | Hebron Christian | AAA |
58.20 | AAAAAA | Hughes | 99.1% | 41-0 | 41 | Paulding County | AAAAAA |
57.85 | AAAAAA | Allatoona | 60.1% | 21-19 | 2 | River Ridge | AAAAAA |
56.87 | AAAAA | Lithia Springs | 63.0% | 27-21 | 6 | Mays | AAAAA |
56.30 | AAAAAAA | McEachern | 81.5% | 27-13 | 14 | Hillgrove | AAAAAAA |
55.73 | AAAAAAA | Collins Hill | 89.3% | 26-0 | 26 | Dacula | AAAAAAA |
55.53 | AAAAA | Dutchtown | 83.5% | 24-7 | 17 | Ola | AAAAA |
55.48 | AA | Cook | 68.4% | 30-23 | 7 | Worth County | AA |
54.53 | AAAA | Cedartown | 98.3% | 35-0 | 35 | Northwest Whitfield | AAAA |
51.92 | AAAA | Holy Innocents | 72.2% | 21-13 | 8 | Hapeville Charter | AAAA |
51.88 | AAAAA | Clarke Central | 75.1% | 27-16 | 11 | Winder-Barrow | AAAAA |
51.01 | AAA | Peach County | 84.9% | 28-13 | 15 | Jackson | AAA |
50.67 | A Division I | Prince Avenue Christian | 95.1% | 34-6 | 28 | Social Circle | A Division I |
50.55 | AAAAAA | Rome | 97.3% | 36-0 | 36 | Etowah | AAAAAA |
50.03 | AAAAAAA | Walton | 98.8% | 40-0 | 40 | Wheeler | AAAAAAA |
49.99 | AAAAAAA | Buford | 99.7% | 42-0 | 42 | Central Gwinnett | AAAAAAA |
49.93 | AAAAA | Jones County | 83.7% | 24-7 | 17 | Union Grove | AAAAA |
49.78 | A Division I | Darlington | 89.0% | 35-18 | 17 | Trion | A Division I |
49.54 | AAA | Morgan County | 60.1% | 21-18 | 3 | Harlem | AAA |
49.47 | AA | Fitzgerald | 96.5% | 35-6 | 29 | Berrien | AA |
48.64 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | John Milledge Academy | 79.3% | 29-18 | 11 | Tattnall Square | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
48.34 | AAAAAA | Alexander | 53.9% | 22-21 | 1 | East Paulding | AAAAAA |
47.99 | AAAAA | Greater Atlanta Christian | 54.3% | 21-20 | 1 | Centennial | AAAAA |
46.44 | AAA | Savannah Christian | 79.4% | 29-18 | 11 | Liberty County | AAA |
46.26 | AAAAAA | Lee County | 98.7% | 40-0 | 40 | Tift County | AAAAAA |
46.15 | AAAAA | Statesboro | 58.1% | 24-21 | 3 | Jenkins | AAAAA |
45.45 | AA | Rockmart | 92.0% | 38-17 | 21 | North Murray | AA |
45.25 | A Division I | Lamar County | 76.8% | 28-17 | 11 | Heard County | A Division I |
44.98 | A Division I | Whitefield Academy | 76.3% | 28-19 | 9 | Mount Pisgah Christian | A Division I |
44.94 | AAAAAA | Glynn Academy | 75.3% | 26-14 | 12 | Lakeside (Evans) | AAAAAA |
44.30 | AAAAAA | Gainesville | 98.7% | 38-0 | 38 | Jackson County | AAAAAA |
44.21 | AA | Pierce County | 92.5% | 33-7 | 26 | Tattnall County | AA |
43.90 | AAAA | Baldwin | 50.7% | 26-25 | 1 | Griffin | AAAA |
43.45 | AAAAAAA | Kennesaw Mountain | 97.0% | 41-11 | 30 | Cherokee | AAAAAAA |
42.95 | AAAAAA | Shiloh | 84.9% | 29-14 | 15 | Habersham Central | AAAAAA |
42.57 | AAAAAAA | North Cobb | 99.7% | 42-0 | 42 | Osborne | AAAAAAA |
42.40 | AAA | Adairsville | 89.9% | 34-14 | 20 | Coahulla Creek | AAA |
42.28 | AAAAAA | Blessed Trinity | 94.6% | 28-0 | 28 | Lassiter | AAAAAA |
41.93 | AAAA | Lovett | 82.7% | 24-8 | 16 | Woodland (Stockbridge) | AAAA |
41.72 | AA | Vidalia | 61.0% | 22-20 | 2 | Toombs County | AA |
41.65 | AAAAAAA | Peachtree Ridge | 79.1% | 22-10 | 12 | Duluth | AAAAAAA |
41.24 | A Division I | St. Francis | 87.6% | 28-12 | 16 | Mount Vernon | A Division I |
40.95 | AAA | Wesleyan | 52.0% | 21-20 | 1 | Pickens | AAA |
40.91 | AAAAAA | Evans | 69.6% | 21-14 | 7 | South Effingham | AAAAAA |
40.88 | AAAA | Westside (Macon) | 53.6% | 20-18 | 2 | Howard | AAAA |
39.32 | AAAAAAA | Westlake | 99.5% | 42-0 | 42 | Campbell | AAAAAAA |
39.28 | A Division II | Charlton County | 80.3% | 24-12 | 12 | Lanier County | A Division II |
39.17 | AAAA | Stockbridge | 96.8% | 36-6 | 30 | McDonough | AAAA |
38.22 | AAA | Long County | 51.9% | 20-19 | 1 | Johnson (Savannah) | AAA |
38.16 | AAAA | Burke County | 97.8% | 40-0 | 40 | Southeast Bulloch | AAAA |
37.82 | AA | Athens Academy | 89.1% | 30-12 | 18 | East Jackson | AA |
37.71 | AAAAAA | Mundy's Mill | 82.6% | 26-12 | 14 | Morrow | AAAAAA |
37.14 | AAAAAA | North Atlanta | 89.9% | 31-12 | 19 | Dunwoody | AAAAAA |
35.79 | AAAAAA | Sprayberry | 91.7% | 35-14 | 21 | Pope | AAAAAA |
35.76 | AAA | Gilmer | 73.2% | 28-20 | 8 | White County | AAA |
35.49 | AAAAAAA | Denmark | 98.5% | 36-0 | 36 | Forsyth Central | AAAAAAA |
35.42 | AA | Putnam County | 87.8% | 31-14 | 17 | Washington County | AA |
35.23 | A Division I | Brooks County | 98.9% | 41-0 | 41 | Pelham | A Division I |
35.14 | AA | Appling County | 96.5% | 33-0 | 33 | Brantley County | AA |
35.08 | AA | Sumter County | 71.2% | 24-14 | 10 | Jeff Davis | AA |
34.34 | AAAA | North Oconee | 99.5% | 38-0 | 38 | Cherokee Bluff | AAAA |
34.21 | A Division II | Bowdon | 95.4% | 35-7 | 28 | Mount Zion (Carroll) | A Division II |
33.44 | AAAAA | Creekside | 99.2% | 37-0 | 37 | Banneker | AAAAA |
33.44 | AA | Fannin County | 84.1% | 28-14 | 14 | Haralson County | AA |
32.93 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Stratford Academy | 81.8% | 28-14 | 14 | First Presbyterian | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
32.84 | AAAAAA | North Forsyth | 94.8% | 33-3 | 30 | Apalachee | AAAAAA |
32.75 | AAA | Sandy Creek | 99.3% | 38-0 | 38 | Douglass | AAA |
31.93 | AAAA | Perry | 99.6% | 42-0 | 42 | West Laurens | AAAA |
31.80 | AAAAA | McIntosh | 74.0% | 27-16 | 11 | Harris County | AAAAA |
31.33 | AAAAAA | Marist | 98.8% | 42-0 | 42 | Riverwood | AAAAAA |
31.33 | AAA | Ringgold | 91.4% | 33-12 | 21 | Gordon Lee | AAA |
30.99 | AAAA | East Forsyth | 66.3% | 21-14 | 7 | North Hall | AAAA |
30.95 | AAAAAA | Lovejoy | 94.6% | 34-7 | 27 | Jonesboro | AAAAAA |
30.22 | AA | Callaway | 98.0% | 32-0 | 32 | Landmark Christian | AA |
30.22 | AA | Spencer | 60.4% | 26-21 | 5 | ACE Charter | AA |
30.14 | AA | Banks County | 55.5% | 24-22 | 2 | Providence Christian | AA |
29.70 | AAAA | Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | 97.3% | 31-0 | 31 | Fayette County | AAAA |
29.07 | AAAA | Hampton | 92.0% | 28-0 | 28 | Luella | AAAA |
28.89 | A Division II | Washington-Wilkes | 76.5% | 26-14 | 12 | Greene County | A Division II |
28.75 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | St. Anne-Pacelli | 93.5% | 34-7 | 27 | Westfield School | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
28.68 | AAAA | Westover | 75.7% | 21-12 | 9 | Shaw | AAAA |
28.57 | AAAAA | Kell | 98.5% | 41-0 | 41 | Chattahoochee | AAAAA |
28.36 | A Division I | Jasper County | 54.7% | 21-20 | 1 | Oglethorpe County | A Division I |
26.74 | GIAA AA | Central Fellowship Christian | 59.6% | 26-21 | 5 | Thomas Jefferson | GIAA A |
26.54 | AAAAAA | Newnan | 97.2% | 36-0 | 36 | New Manchester | AAAAAA |
25.93 | AAA | Mary Persons | 96.3% | 36-7 | 29 | Pike County | AAA |
25.44 | AAAA | Sonoraville | 97.5% | 36-0 | 36 | Southeast Whitfield | AAAA |
24.96 | AAAA | Walnut Grove | 92.2% | 34-13 | 21 | Chestatee | AAAA |
24.79 | AA | Mount Paran Christian | 64.5% | 21-17 | 4 | Washington | AA |
24.65 | A Division II | Turner County | 53.0% | 27-26 | 1 | Atkinson County | A Division II |
24.63 | AAAAA | Greenbrier | 61.9% | 20-14 | 6 | Bradwell Institute | AAAAA |
24.31 | AAAAA | Cambridge | 99.7% | 42-0 | 42 | North Springs | AAAAA |
24.23 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Brookwood School | 75.0% | 28-20 | 8 | Valwood School | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
23.68 | A Division I | Dade County | 80.2% | 27-14 | 13 | Armuchee | A Division I |
23.23 | A Division I | Irwin County | 99.9% | 45-0 | 45 | Bacon County | A Division I |
23.13 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Brookstone | 89.2% | 30-12 | 18 | Heritage (Newnan) | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
21.90 | AAAAAA | St. Pius X | 98.2% | 35-0 | 35 | South Cobb | AAAAAA |
21.86 | A Division II | Emanuel County Institute | 89.9% | 31-12 | 19 | Montgomery County | A Division II |
21.38 | AAA | Bremen | 90.9% | 27-0 | 27 | Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe | AAA |
21.26 | A Division II | Wilcox County | 92.9% | 34-9 | 25 | Wheeler County | A Division II |
21.25 | A Division II | Seminole County | 58.2% | 17-14 | 3 | Miller County | A Division II |
20.00 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Bethlehem Christian Academy | 77.3% | 27-14 | 13 | George Walton Academy | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
19.67 | A Division I | Jefferson County | 86.4% | 30-14 | 16 | East Laurens | A Division I |
17.68 | AAAAA | Decatur | 96.5% | 40-10 | 30 | M.L. King | AAAAA |
17.60 | AAAAA | Maynard Jackson | 97.8% | 33-0 | 33 | Tri-Cities | AAAAA |
17.52 | A Division I | Pepperell | 94.7% | 31-0 | 31 | Coosa | A Division I |
17.48 | A Division I | Bryan County | 85.2% | 28-13 | 15 | Claxton | A Division I |
17.33 | AAA | Calvary Day | 99.6% | 44-0 | 44 | Beach | AAA |
16.12 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Frederica Academy | 72.1% | 24-15 | 9 | St. Andrew's School | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
15.99 | AAAAAA | Sequoyah | 99.5% | 41-0 | 41 | Woodstock | AAAAAA |
15.43 | AAAAA | Flowery Branch | 98.7% | 41-0 | 41 | Heritage (Conyers) | AAAAA |
13.55 | AAA | LaFayette | 85.1% | 28-13 | 15 | Ridgeland | AAA |
13.52 | A Division II | Jenkins County | 96.9% | 35-0 | 35 | Portal | A Division II |
12.88 | AAAAAAA | Meadowcreek | 99.5% | 42-0 | 42 | Berkmar | AAAAAAA |
12.32 | A Division II | Aquinas | 95.7% | 37-8 | 29 | Warren County | A Division II |
12.15 | A Division II | Johnson County | 99.3% | 40-0 | 40 | Hancock Central | A Division II |
12.07 | AAAAAA | Alcovy | 92.2% | 31-7 | 24 | Rockdale County | AAAAAA |
11.93 | A Division II | Lincoln County | 97.6% | 35-0 | 35 | Towns County | A Division II |
10.74 | AAAAA | Chamblee | 98.2% | 38-0 | 38 | Lithonia | AAAAA |
10.59 | AA | Thomson | 99.8% | 40-0 | 40 | Westside (Augusta) | AA |
10.23 | AA | Southwest | 80.4% | 27-14 | 13 | Central (Macon) | AA |
10.03 | AAAAA | Warner Robins | 99.9% | 47-0 | 47 | Locust Grove | AAAAA |
10.03 | AAAA | Stone Mountain | 68.2% | 21-14 | 7 | Druid Hills | AAAA |
9.85 | AAA | Oconee County | 99.9% | 48-0 | 48 | Franklin County | AAA |
9.65 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Deerfield-Windsor | 91.2% | 32-12 | 20 | Southland Academy | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
9.32 | AA | Eagle's Landing Christian | 99.3% | 43-0 | 43 | McNair | AA |
8.78 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Pinewood Christian | 86.2% | 34-19 | 15 | Bulloch Academy | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
8.57 | AAAA | Madison County | 97.9% | 40-0 | 40 | East Hall | AAAA |
8.37 | GIAA AA | Brentwood School | 89.0% | 32-14 | 18 | Gatewood School | GIAA AA |
7.71 | GIAA AA | Briarwood Academy | 74.0% | 21-13 | 8 | Edmund Burke Academy | GIAA AA |
7.51 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Terrell Academy | 82.2% | 31-18 | 13 | Tiftarea Academy | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
7.49 | A Division II | Dooly County | 96.6% | 35-0 | 35 | Hawkinsville | A Division II |
3.32 | AA | Gordon Central | 68.7% | 21-14 | 7 | Murray County | AA |
3.25 | AA | Butler | 74.0% | 23-14 | 9 | Josey | AA |
3.04 | AAA | Lumpkin County | 99.5% | 41-0 | 41 | West Hall | AAA |
2.77 | AAAAA | Northgate | 99.4% | 41-0 | 41 | Drew | AAAAA |
0.88 | A Division II | Terrell County | 93.6% | 30-0 | 30 | Randolph-Clay | A Division II |
0.40 | AAA | Savannah Country Day | 98.1% | 34-0 | 34 | Groves | AAA |
-0.01 | A Division II | Wilkinson County | 92.8% | 33-7 | 26 | Glascock County | A Division II |
-1.10 | A Division I | Temple | 98.9% | 43-3 | 40 | Crawford County | A Division I |
-1.28 | AAA | Richmond Academy | 97.0% | 34-0 | 34 | Salem | AAA |
-1.36 | A Division II | Telfair County | 99.0% | 46-7 | 39 | Treutlen | A Division II |
-1.85 | GAPPS AA | Cherokee Christian | 93.7% | 36-14 | 22 | Lanier Christian | GAPPS AA |
-3.55 | GIAA AA | Piedmont Academy | 76.9% | 27-14 | 13 | Lake Oconee Academy | A Division II |
-3.68 | AA | Laney | 99.8% | 41-0 | 41 | Glenn Hills | AA |
-5.89 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Lakeview Academy | 88.9% | 29-10 | 19 | Loganville Christian | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
-6.32 | AA | Columbia | 99.8% | 40-0 | 40 | Towers | AA |
-7.80 | GIAA AA | Southwest Georgia Academy | 82.8% | 23-7 | 16 | Georgia Christian | GIAA AA |
-8.63 | AAAAA | Midtown | 91.8% | 28-6 | 22 | Johnson (Gainesville) | AAAA |
-10.16 | GAPPS AA | King's Academy | 88.9% | 27-6 | 21 | Creekside Christian | GAPPS AA |
-10.61 | AAAAAA | Lakeside (Atlanta) | 98.2% | 35-0 | 35 | Clarkston | AAAA |
-12.39 | AA | Therrell | 96.2% | 24-0 | 24 | B.E.S.T. Academy | AA |
-14.08 | AAA | Hephzibah | 99.8% | 45-0 | 45 | Cross Creek | AAA |
-20.89 | AA | Kendrick | 88.7% | 31-14 | 17 | Jordan | AA |
-24.35 | GAPPS AA | Calvary Christian | 90.7% | 35-14 | 21 | Rock Springs Christian | GAPPS AA |
-25.38 | GAPPS AA | Pinecrest Academy | 61.3% | 27-21 | 6 | Walker | AA |
-25.62 | GIAA A | Robert Toombs Academy | 98.9% | 46-7 | 39 | Memorial Day | GIAA A |
-34.71 | GIAA A | Flint River Academy | 79.8% | 23-10 | 13 | Harvester Christian | GIAA A |
-41.76 | A Division II | Mitchell County | 100.0% | 44-0 | 44 | Baconton Charter | A Division II |
-50.85 | GAPPS AA | Skipstone Academy | 100.0% | 47-0 | 47 | Community Christian | GAPPS AA |
-61.24 | GIAA A | Fullington Academy | 99.8% | 48-0 | 48 | St. Mary's Academy | GIAA AA |
-73.54 | GIAA AA | Augusta Prep | 100.0% | 55-0 | 55 | GSIC | A Division II |
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