Maxwell Week 11 projections

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Oct 27

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
43.19AAAAHapeville Charter68.3%22-166Miller GroveAAAA
34.90AAAAHoward68.1%20-128West LaurensAAAA
33.87AAAMonroe73.5%28-208ColumbusAAA
27.25AAAALaGrange98.8%36-036Fayette CountyAAAA
10.55AAAAWoodland (Stockbridge)97.3%32-032Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
-13.27AAAAJohnson (Gainesville)80.4%27-1413ClarkstonAAAA
-42.59A Division IIMiller County99.9%40-040Baconton CharterA Division II
-56.82A Division IIManchester100.0%56-056Central (Talbotton)A Division II
-69.71GIAA AANotre Dame Academy94.2%21-021Cross KeysAAAAA

Oct 28

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
86.20AAAAAAThomas County Central65.1%27-216Lee CountyAAAAAA
83.28AAAAAAAColquitt County91.3%32-1022ValdostaAAAAAAA
77.25AAAAAAAWestlake60.4%26-215East CowetaAAAAAAA
75.17AAAAAAAParkview61.9%23-203BrookwoodAAAAAAA
75.05AAAAAAAMilton79.7%21-714DenmarkAAAAAAA
74.42AAAAAAALambert80.9%30-1812South ForsythAAAAAAA
72.13AAAAAAHughes92.2%37-1621South PauldingAAAAAA
71.84AAAOconee County52.7%20-182Stephens CountyAAA
69.44AAAAAAAlpharetta60.3%27-216Blessed TrinityAAAAAA
68.84AAAAAAABuford97.4%30-030Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
66.61AAAAAWarner Robins56.4%20-173Jones CountyAAAAA
64.91AAAAAAALowndes83.8%27-1215Richmond HillAAAAAAA
64.52AAAAAAAMarietta82.6%26-1016HarrisonAAAAAAA
64.39AAAAAAANewton54.5%21-201South GwinnettAAAAAAA
62.05AAAATroup89.8%32-1319Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)AAAA
61.93AAAAStockbridge57.8%23-212Pace AcademyAAAA
61.41AAAAAAAGrayson94.3%31-031ArcherAAAAAAA
61.03AAAAACartersville70.8%28-208DaltonAAAAA
60.97AAAHebron Christian59.2%25-214Hart CountyAAA
60.62AAAAAAMarist82.1%26-1214St. Pius XAAAAAA
60.12AAAAHeritage (Ringgold)72.5%28-208SonoravilleAAAA
59.57AAAAAASequoyah59.6%18-144AllatoonaAAAAAA
59.18AAFitzgerald92.4%34-1321CookAA
59.18AAADougherty52.3%22-211Carver (Columbus)AAA
59.10A Division ISwainsboro84.3%26-818Bleckley CountyA Division I
58.92AAAAAADouglas County75.0%27-1710NewnanAAAAAA
58.13AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)93.9%30-030VeteransAAAAAA
57.68AAAAAARome95.3%32-032CreekviewAAAAAA
56.87AAAAAAGainesville96.4%35-035North ForsythAAAAAA
56.37AAAAAAANorth Paulding85.2%28-1414HillgroveAAAAAAA
55.93AAAACentral (Carrollton)53.0%27-261Northwest WhitfieldAAAA
55.71AAAAAAANorcross90.4%30-921Peachtree RidgeAAAAAAA
54.23AAAThomasville81.5%24-1113Crisp CountyAAA
53.32AAAAAAPaulding County66.1%25-205AlexanderAAAAAA
53.29AAADawson County55.8%21-201Lumpkin CountyAAA
53.28AAAAAAAMill Creek99.5%44-044DaculaAAAAAAA
53.20AAAABurke County93.3%35-1421New HampsteadAAAA
52.68AAAAStephenson71.4%22-148Holy InnocentsAAAA
52.30AAAAAAAKennesaw Mountain92.3%31-724WheelerAAAAAAA
52.17AAAAACalhoun90.6%32-1220CassAAAAA
51.68AAAAAWare County97.8%35-035StatesboroAAAAA
51.51AAAAAEastside80.4%25-1312Winder-BarrowAAAAA
51.47AAAAPerry97.5%37-037SpaldingAAAA
51.46AAAAAARiver Ridge74.7%27-1710EtowahAAAAAA
51.25AAAAALoganville89.3%28-721Flowery BranchAAAAA
50.54AAPutnam County64.5%13-67LaneyAA
50.48AAAAAAACollins Hill94.0%29-029Central GwinnettAAAAAAA
50.42AAAAAAShiloh70.5%24-159LanierAAAAAA
50.02AAPierce County85.0%30-1416VidaliaAA
49.79AAAAAABrunswick93.3%35-1322EvansAAAAAA
48.80AAAAHampton68.9%21-147LovettAAAA
48.74A Division IIrwin County98.0%33-033Early CountyA Division II
48.56AARockmart91.5%35-1421Fannin CountyAA
47.70A Division IRabun County96.8%34-034CommerceA Division I
47.59AAAthens Academy75.2%27-1512Union CountyAA
47.30A Division IIClinch County50.4%20-200Charlton CountyA Division II
47.04AAAAAAWoodward Academy98.0%35-035Mundy's MillAAAAAA
46.80AAAAAVilla Rica51.8%20-191Maynard JacksonAAAAA
46.70AAAMary Persons69.0%28-217Upson-LeeAAA
46.50AAAAAAEffingham County88.7%27-621Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
45.96AADodge County69.0%28-217BerrienAA
45.11A Division ISt. Francis86.6%29-1415Mount Pisgah ChristianA Division I
44.96AAAAAAHouston County98.6%41-041Tift CountyAAAAAA
44.64AAAAAAANorth Cobb99.5%42-042CherokeeAAAAAAA
44.48AAAAAAAWalton99.1%42-042OsborneAAAAAAA
44.45AAAAMadison County64.7%28-217Walnut GroveAAAA
44.33AAAAAASprayberry77.4%27-1413LassiterAAAAAA
42.98AAAAAChamblee68.2%28-217DecaturAAAAA
42.69AAAAWestminster (Atlanta)88.5%28-820Southwest DeKalbAAAA
42.67AAAAADutchtown94.0%35-827Eagle's LandingAAAAA
42.40AAAABaldwin67.7%27-207Westside (Macon)AAAA
42.14AAAppling County94.5%29-029Tattnall CountyAA
42.01AAAAWhitewater93.6%38-1424RiverdaleAAAA
41.43AAAAAAAMeadowcreek91.0%33-1320DuluthAAAAAAA
40.53AAWorth County88.7%32-1418Sumter CountyAA
40.29A Division IWhitefield Academy83.6%28-1315Mount VernonA Division I
40.00AAACalvary Day96.0%36-729Long CountyAAA
39.48AAAAdairsville94.5%35-1223BremenAAA
39.36A Division IDade County54.1%21-210PepperellA Division I
39.13AAAAWayne County94.6%31-031Southeast BullochAAAA
38.94AAAAAAPope59.0%23-212Johns CreekAAAAAA
38.82AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett97.9%37-037DiscoveryAAAAAAA
38.73AAAAAAACarrollton99.8%44-044CampbellAAAAAAA
38.64AAAAAMays87.2%31-1417BannekerAAAAA
38.32AAAAANorthside (Columbus)88.7%35-1619McIntoshAAAAA
38.08AAAPickens66.8%24-195White CountyAAA
37.87AAAAAAGrovetown75.0%24-1410South EffinghamAAAAAA
37.44A Division IIEmanuel County Institute74.0%28-217Jenkins CountyA Division II
37.09A Division ITemple66.2%26-206Heard CountyA Division I
36.80AAAAALithia Springs93.0%28-028Chapel HillAAAAA
36.25A Division IITelfair County50.4%26-260Dooly CountyA Division II
35.62AAAACedar Shoals56.9%22-211North HallAAAA
35.10AAAJohnson (Savannah)74.3%20-713Savannah Country DayAAA
34.47AAProvidence Christian59.0%23-203East JacksonAA
34.42GIAA AAAA-AAATattnall Square80.4%33-2013First PresbyterianGIAA AAAA-AAA
34.42AAAAAAHabersham Central73.9%24-1410ApalacheeAAAAAA
34.28AAAHephzibah55.9%22-211Richmond AcademyAAA
34.22A Division ISocial Circle84.3%27-1215Oglethorpe CountyA Division I
34.13A Division IElbert County96.7%41-1328Athens ChristianA Division I
33.89AAAAAAAWest Forsyth98.0%35-035Forsyth CentralAAAAAAA
32.32A Division IIAquinas65.8%28-217Greene CountyA Division II
31.71AAAAAHiram89.5%34-1420Woodland (Cartersville)AAAAA
31.65AAAABainbridge99.3%41-041HardawayAAAA
31.55AAACoahulla Creek77.2%28-1612LaFayetteAAA
31.45AAAAMcDonough72.2%24-1410LuellaAAAA
31.25AAAAAAEast Paulding87.6%28-721New ManchesterAAAAAA
30.77A Division IIChristian Heritage85.1%27-918Mount Zion (Carroll)A Division II
30.67AAFellowship Christian97.2%35-035Banks CountyAA
30.37AAAAAGreater Atlanta Christian91.4%30-723ChattahoocheeAAAAA
29.72AAAAAADunwoody77.6%28-199RiverwoodAAAAAA
29.58AAAAAAJonesboro72.9%28-217AlcovyAAAAAA
29.36AAAAACoffee99.5%41-041GreenbrierAAAAA
28.16A Division IILanier County64.2%20-146Atkinson CountyA Division II
27.87AAAPeach County98.7%40-040Pike CountyAAA
25.82AAAAEast Forsyth86.2%28-1216ChestateeAAAA
25.78A Division IPrince Avenue Christian99.7%42-042Jasper CountyA Division I
25.34AAAACedartown100.0%48-048Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
25.02AAAAAKell98.9%38-038North SpringsAAAAA
24.12A Division IBrooks County99.6%43-043Bacon CountyA Division I
23.93AAARinggold95.4%34-034Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
23.65AAAAAJenkins93.7%34-925Bradwell InstituteAAAAA
22.98GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor65.3%27-216Valwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
22.77AAToombs County88.3%28-1018Windsor ForestAA
22.26A Division ITrion96.9%35-035ArmucheeA Division I
21.94AAAAAANorth Atlanta97.9%38-038South CobbAAAAAA
20.53A Division IITerrell County70.3%27-207Seminole CountyA Division II
20.42AAACE Charter75.1%31-2110SouthwestAA
20.41GIAA AAAA-AAASt. Anne-Pacelli97.2%33-033Heritage (Newnan)GIAA AAAA-AAA
20.37AAAAAArabia Mountain80.4%26-1313M.L. KingAAAAA
19.88AAAAACreekside99.8%41-041Tri-CitiesAAAAA
19.62A Division IDublin98.7%38-038East LaurensA Division I
19.29GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy99.2%40-040Mount de SalesGIAA AAAA-AAA
19.25GIAA AAAA-AAABrookwood School80.0%26-1313Terrell AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
18.27A Division IIWashington-Wilkes90.5%28-622Towns CountyA Division II
17.91GIAA AAAA-AAAPinewood Christian82.6%31-1813Frederica AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
17.35AAAAAALovejoy98.4%37-037Forest ParkAAAAAA
16.77AAAAAJefferson99.8%45-045Heritage (Conyers)AAAAA
16.67AAALiberty County97.3%38-632BeachAAA
16.10A Division IILincoln County96.0%35-629Warren CountyA Division II
16.08A Division IIHancock Central51.1%15-141Wilkinson CountyA Division II
15.39GIAA AAAA-AAALakeview Academy57.4%23-212George Walton AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
14.90A Division ICoosa81.8%28-1414ChattoogaA Division I
14.38A Division IScreven County96.4%27-027ClaxtonA Division I
14.01AALandmark Christian87.9%27-720RedanAA
13.93GIAA AThomas Jefferson87.8%34-1717Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA A
13.55A Division IIMcIntosh County Academy97.9%34-034PortalA Division II
13.44GIAA AAAA-AAABrookstone96.3%37-730Strong Rock ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
13.41AAAAAALakeside (Atlanta)77.4%24-1410Druid HillsAAAA
13.33A Division IIChattahoochee County83.2%26-1016GreenvilleA Division II
13.06AAAGordon Lee91.8%32-1022RidgelandAAA
13.01AAAABenedictine100.0%47-047IslandsAAAA
11.95AAModel98.3%35-035Gordon CentralAA
11.47AAButler61.4%14-77Westside (Augusta)AA
11.45AAAAAMidtown61.5%21-156Stone MountainAAAA
10.20AAAAACentennial98.8%35-035NorthviewAAAAA
9.85AACallaway99.8%44-044McNairAA
9.59AAAAATucker98.0%35-035LithoniaAAAAA
9.41AAAANorth Oconee100.0%48-048East HallAAAA
8.77AAAMonroe Area99.9%48-048Franklin CountyAAA
8.20A Division IIWilcox County98.0%40-040HawkinsvilleA Division II
7.86AAAAAOla99.6%42-042Locust GroveAAAAA
7.64AAAAAAABerkmar71.1%21-138SeckingerAAAA
7.45AAAWesleyan98.8%35-035West HallAAA
6.89AASpencer95.5%32-032Central (Macon)AA
6.65GIAA AAAA-AAASt. Andrew's School82.8%28-1414Bulloch AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
6.17GIAA AAAugusta Prep58.4%20-173Edmund Burke AcademyGIAA AA
5.02AAWashington County97.1%38-632JoseyAA
4.63GIAA AAAA-AAATiftarea Academy70.8%31-238Southland AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
1.30GIAA AAGatewood School82.2%34-2113Piedmont AcademyGIAA AA
-0.02AAThomson99.9%48-048Glenn HillsAA
-0.13A Division IIMitchell County97.5%28-028Randolph-ClayA Division II
-0.18AAASavannah Christian99.8%44-044GrovesAAA
-0.30AAHaralson County98.3%33-033Murray CountyAA
-0.48GIAA AABrentwood School94.8%35-728Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA AA
-0.71AAAAAHarris County97.9%35-035DrewAAAAA
-1.35A Division IISchley County99.8%41-041Marion CountyA Division II
-1.45AARutland83.7%28-1414KendrickAA
-1.52AAAAStarr's Mill100.0%47-047North ClaytonAAAA
-1.61A Division IIMacon County97.9%35-035Taylor CountyA Division II
-3.09A Division IIWheeler County95.4%36-828TreutlenA Division II
-3.87AAAHarlem99.8%42-042SalemAAA
-4.09A Division ILamar County99.9%50-050Crawford CountyA Division I
-7.17AAEagle's Landing Christian99.9%44-044TowersAA
-8.79GAPPS AASkipstone Academy93.5%31-625Creekside ChristianGAPPS AA
-10.78GAPPS AAKing's Academy87.6%28-820King's Ridge ChristianA Division I
-11.05AAAMorgan County99.9%48-048Cross CreekAAA
-12.29GIAA AAAA-AAALoganville Christian60.1%25-214Riverside Military AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
-15.07AANorth Cobb Christian99.9%42-042B.E.S.T. AcademyAA
-21.42GAPPS AACherokee Christian99.2%42-042Pinecrest AcademyGAPPS AA
-23.21A Division IBryan County99.8%45-045SavannahA Division I
-24.39A Division IIJohnson County100.0%55-055Twiggs CountyA Division II
-26.93GIAA AASouthwest Georgia Academy96.6%35-035Memorial DayGIAA A
-27.54GAPPS AALanier Christian95.9%39-1227WalkerAA
-28.06AANortheast100.0%51-051JordanAA
-33.89GIAA AFullington Academy95.2%35-728Grace ChristianGIAA A
-35.37GIAA AACentral Fellowship Christian99.9%49-049Harvester ChristianGIAA A
-43.91GAPPS AARock Springs Christian86.6%25-619Community ChristianGAPPS AA
-61.65GIAA AFlint River Academy98.5%39-039St. Mary's AcademyGIAA AA

Oct 29

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
24.23AASouth Atlanta99.1%40-040WashingtonAA
18.61AAMount Paran Christian70.2%23-158TherrellAA
9.63AAAAAAMorrow96.0%34-034Rockdale CountyAAAAAA

Nov 01

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
66.65AAAABurke County71.6%23-149Wayne CountyAAAA