Maxwell first round projections: Georgia’s top rated high school football games

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
Georgia high school football
Photos from the championship games
Milton in Fulton County to finish No. 2 in six national high school football polls
The playoffs:
- Key details for each of the championship games played Dec. 16-18
- Grayson defense lowers the boom on Carrollton to claim 6A championship
- Calhoun shuts down Jefferson in Class 3A final to win first state title since 2017
- In Class 5A final, champion Milton tested, runner-up Hughes dignified
- Hebron Christian gets redemption over Prince Avenue Christian, claims 1st state title
- Carver-Columbus too much for Burke County in 52-14 rout
- North Oconee flips the script to beat No. 1 Marist for first state title
- Big-play Polke’s TD return sends Toombs to first state title
- ‘Relentless’ Bowdon’s 27-point run against Brooks County leads to three-peat state title
Full high school football coverage
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
| Favorite | Projection | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Game Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 82.39 | AAAAAA | Douglas County | 75.7% | 28 - 18 | 10 | Mill Creek | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 76.65 | AAAAAA | North Cobb | 81.0% | 35 - 23 | 12 | Camden County | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 76.14 | AAAA | Marist | 86.6% | 28 - 12 | 16 | Warner Robins | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 75.42 | AAAAAA | Valdosta | 56.6% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Walton | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 74.71 | AAAAAA | Collins Hill | 83.1% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Westlake | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 73.49 | AAAAA | Gainesville | 81.8% | 31 - 18 | 13 | Sequoyah | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 72.35 | AAAAA | Houston County | 67.4% | 31 - 26 | 5 | Clarke Central | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 71.90 | AAAA | Cedartown | 66.1% | 26 - 20 | 6 | Cambridge | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 70.49 | AAAAAA | Norcross | 65.3% | 24 - 19 | 5 | Lambert | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 68.25 | AAAAA | Roswell | 92.1% | 36 - 15 | 21 | River Ridge | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 68.17 | AAAAAA | Brookwood | 65.0% | 27 - 21 | 6 | West Forsyth | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 67.88 | AAAAAA | North Atlanta | 60.8% | 24 - 20 | 4 | Peachtree Ridge | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 67.78 | AAAAAA | Buford | 98.7% | 38 - 0 | 38 | East Coweta | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 66.67 | AAAA | Starr's Mill | 61.6% | 21 - 19 | 2 | Mays | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 66.00 | AAAAAA | Hillgrove | 51.4% | 22 - 21 | 1 | South Gwinnett | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 65.15 | AAAAA | East Paulding | 69.0% | 27 - 20 | 7 | Effingham County | AAAAA |
| Sat, Nov 16 | 64.54 | AAAAAA | Newton | 73.7% | 30 - 21 | 9 | McEachern | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 64.47 | AAAA | Creekside | 91.7% | 27 - 0 | 27 | Harris County | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 64.01 | AAAAA | Sprayberry | 74.4% | 29 - 21 | 8 | Lanier | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 63.78 | AAAA | Kell | 74.9% | 31 - 21 | 10 | Hiram | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 63.04 | AAAAA | Coffee | 92.7% | 26 - 0 | 26 | Jackson County | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 63.03 | AAAAAA | Lowndes | 95.6% | 35 - 7 | 28 | North Paulding | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 62.11 | AAAA | Ware County | 86.7% | 35 - 20 | 15 | Tucker | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 61.68 | AAAA | Blessed Trinity | 95.5% | 32 - 0 | 32 | Cass | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 61.67 | AAAA | Perry | 84.6% | 27 - 12 | 15 | St. Pius X | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 61.32 | AAAA | Cartersville | 93.2% | 31 - 7 | 24 | Westminster (Atlanta) | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 60.84 | AAAA | Benedictine | 86.0% | 34 - 17 | 17 | Southwest DeKalb | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 60.18 | AAAAA | Lakeside (Evans) | 78.9% | 27 - 14 | 13 | New Manchester | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 58.50 | AAAA | East Forsyth | 68.9% | 26 - 19 | 7 | Jones County | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 57.63 | AAAAA | Decatur | 79.9% | 29 - 18 | 11 | Dutchtown | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 57.31 | AAAAAA | North Gwinnett | 98.3% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Denmark | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 57.30 | AAAAA | Milton | 99.7% | 42 - 0 | 42 | Woodstock | AAAAA |
| Sat, Nov 16 | 56.98 | AAA Public | Douglass | 75.3% | 25 - 14 | 11 | Cairo | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 56.78 | AAAAAA | Colquitt County | 96.8% | 35 - 0 | 35 | Wheeler | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 56.72 | AAAAA | Rome | 93.4% | 34 - 8 | 26 | Glynn Academy | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 56.53 | AAAAAA | Harrison | 84.6% | 34 - 19 | 15 | Archer | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 55.62 | AAA Public | Stephenson | 67.2% | 23 - 17 | 6 | Whitewater | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 55.11 | AAAAA | Brunswick | 93.8% | 36 - 14 | 22 | Villa Rica | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 53.74 | AAA Public | LaGrange | 76.4% | 28 - 18 | 10 | Lumpkin County | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 53.53 | AAA Public | Cherokee Bluff | 87.3% | 31 - 14 | 17 | Monroe Area | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 52.57 | AAAA | Jonesboro | 91.3% | 34 - 13 | 21 | Maynard Jackson | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 51.95 | AAA Public | Oconee County | 88.4% | 27 - 6 | 21 | Westside (Augusta) | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 51.91 | AAAAA | Thomas County Central | 99.4% | 43 - 0 | 43 | Winder-Barrow | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 51.68 | AAAAA | Woodward Academy | 95.4% | 32 - 0 | 32 | Lovejoy | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 51.56 | AAA Public | Calhoun | 79.5% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Spalding | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 50.44 | A Division II | Irwin County | 69.4% | 28 - 20 | 8 | Greene County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 50.39 | AAAAAA | Carrollton | 99.8% | 48 - 0 | 48 | Dacula | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 50.09 | AAA Public | Westover | 88.3% | 28 - 7 | 21 | Luella | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 49.64 | AAAA | Ola | 83.6% | 22 - 7 | 15 | Flowery Branch | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 48.89 | A Division I Public | Fitzgerald | 81.0% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Rabun County | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 48.85 | AAA Public | Baldwin | 56.4% | 24 - 21 | 3 | West Laurens | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 48.60 | AAA Public | Jenkins | 84.9% | 33 - 18 | 15 | Northwest Whitfield | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 48.49 | AAAA | Eastside | 98.7% | 41 - 0 | 41 | Hampton | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 22 | 48.46 | Smaller Private | North Cobb Christian | 52.1% | 21 - 21 | 0 | Whitefield Academy | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 47.89 | AAA Public | Upson-Lee | 82.8% | 24 - 7 | 17 | Long County | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 47.73 | AAA Public | Harlem | 79.1% | 28 - 17 | 11 | Cedar Grove | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 46.83 | AAAAA | Newnan | 89.9% | 28 - 7 | 21 | Tri-Cities | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 46.29 | AAAAA | Hughes | 99.2% | 42 - 0 | 42 | Dunwoody | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 46.04 | AAAAA | Lee County | 99.9% | 54 - 0 | 54 | Habersham Central | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 45.93 | A Division I Public | Commerce | 76.5% | 28 - 17 | 11 | Bremen | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 45.63 | AA Public | Morgan County | 90.0% | 35 - 16 | 19 | East Jackson | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 45.59 | A Division I Public | Elbert County | 71.2% | 28 - 20 | 8 | Gordon Lee | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 45.25 | AA Public | Appling County | 89.7% | 27 - 6 | 21 | Crisp County | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 45.25 | AAA Public | Southeast Bulloch | 66.4% | 25 - 20 | 5 | Heritage (Ringgold) | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 45.04 | AA Public | Hart County | 80.5% | 28 - 15 | 13 | Ringgold | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 45.02 | AAA Public | Jefferson | 98.0% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Monroe | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 44.66 | AAA Public | Sandy Creek | 94.6% | 34 - 7 | 27 | Adairsville | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 44.60 | Smaller Private | Aquinas | 59.5% | 22 - 20 | 2 | Holy Innocents | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 44.51 | A Division I Public | Northeast | 87.6% | 29 - 13 | 16 | Swainsboro | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 44.14 | AAAAAA | Grayson | 99.6% | 41 - 0 | 41 | Pebblebrook | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 43.94 | AA Public | Westside (Macon) | 69.7% | 27 - 20 | 7 | Spencer | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 43.46 | AAA Public | North Hall | 84.9% | 28 - 13 | 15 | Gilmer | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 42.49 | A Division II | Clinch County | 77.2% | 29 - 20 | 9 | Warren County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 42.24 | AAA Public | Peach County | 98.1% | 42 - 7 | 35 | Chestatee | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 41.71 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Tiftarea Academy | 57.5% | 25 - 21 | 4 | Valwood School | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 41.42 | A Division I Public | Jeff Davis | 76.3% | 23 - 13 | 10 | Washington County | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 41.20 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Bulloch Academy | 61.0% | 20 - 15 | 5 | Brookstone | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 40.80 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | First Presbyterian | 63.7% | 17 - 13 | 4 | Bethlehem Christian Academy | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 40.52 | Smaller Private | Savannah Country Day | 69.0% | 28 - 21 | 7 | Mount Vernon | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 40.46 | AA Public | Burke County | 92.9% | 35 - 14 | 21 | Cook | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 40.46 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Westfield School | 63.9% | 22 - 18 | 4 | Deerfield-Windsor | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 39.56 | A Division II | Lincoln County | 95.1% | 37 - 12 | 25 | Charlton County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 38.61 | A Division II | Telfair County | 54.4% | 21 - 21 | 0 | Emanuel County Institute | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 38.25 | AA Public | Carver (Columbus) | 96.0% | 28 - 0 | 28 | Therrell | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 38.13 | AAAA | Central (Carrollton) | 98.8% | 41 - 0 | 41 | M.L. King | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 38.12 | A Division I Public | Temple | 82.1% | 31 - 19 | 12 | Putnam County | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 37.91 | Smaller Private | Lovett | 91.6% | 32 - 10 | 22 | Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 37.59 | A Division I Public | ACE Charter | 59.9% | 21 - 18 | 3 | Jasper County | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 37.46 | A Division I Public | Social Circle | 66.3% | 27 - 21 | 6 | Bleckley County | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 36.76 | A Division I Public | Thomasville | 97.6% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Bacon County | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 36.39 | A Division II | Trion | 85.8% | 34 - 18 | 16 | Schley County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 36.24 | Smaller Private | Greater Atlanta Christian | 72.7% | 23 - 14 | 9 | Mount Paran Christian | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 36.15 | A Division I Public | Fannin County | 95.3% | 35 - 7 | 28 | Vidalia | A Division I Public |
| Sat, Nov 16 | 36.15 | AA Public | Laney | 57.0% | 20 - 17 | 3 | South Atlanta | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 36.10 | AA Public | Stephens County | 94.8% | 34 - 7 | 27 | North Murray | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 35.57 | A Division II | McIntosh County Academy | 53.3% | 17 - 15 | 2 | Wilcox County | A Division II |
| Sat, Nov 16 | 35.42 | AA Public | Carver (Atlanta) | 96.8% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Shaw | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 35.05 | AAAA | North Oconee | 99.9% | 45 - 0 | 45 | Eagle's Landing | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 33.79 | A Division I Public | Dodge County | 89.5% | 34 - 15 | 19 | Chattooga | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 33.32 | AA Public | Pierce County | 98.8% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Jackson | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 32.37 | A Division I Public | Toombs County | 99.5% | 43 - 0 | 43 | Southwest | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 32.17 | AA Public | Sumter County | 90.7% | 31 - 12 | 19 | Union County | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 32.15 | A Division I Public | Lamar County | 84.7% | 27 - 8 | 19 | Dade County | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 31.99 | A Division II | Brooks County | 96.6% | 33 - 0 | 33 | Washington-Wilkes | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 31.82 | Smaller Private | Darlington | 69.1% | 24 - 17 | 7 | King's Ridge Christian | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 31.65 | A Division I Public | Heard County | 95.2% | 35 - 7 | 28 | McNair | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 31.13 | A Division II | Johnson County | 56.8% | 21 - 18 | 3 | Pelham | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 31.11 | A Division II | Metter | 88.9% | 27 - 6 | 21 | Hawkinsville | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 30.83 | A Division II | Bowdon | 98.0% | 37 - 0 | 37 | Taylor County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 30.12 | AA Public | Thomson | 94.3% | 34 - 7 | 27 | Pike County | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 29.50 | AA Public | Hapeville Charter | 98.8% | 37 - 0 | 37 | Lakeview Ft. Oglethorpe | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 29.06 | A Division II | Miller County | 83.6% | 28 - 13 | 15 | Wilkinson County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 28.90 | AA Public | Callaway | 98.1% | 35 - 0 | 35 | Miller Grove | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 27.71 | A Division II | Jenkins County | 90.6% | 33 - 13 | 20 | Wheeler County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 26.63 | A Division II | Manchester | 99.2% | 41 - 0 | 41 | Marion County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 25.38 | Smaller Private | Landmark Christian | 79.6% | 31 - 20 | 11 | Providence Christian | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 23.44 | GIAA AA-A | Brentwood School | 79.6% | 28 - 16 | 12 | Southland Academy | GIAA AA-A |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 23.06 | A Division I Public | Worth County | 98.4% | 41 - 0 | 41 | Coosa | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 22.98 | AA Public | Rockmart | 98.0% | 35 - 0 | 35 | Redan | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 22.58 | AA Public | Columbia | 97.1% | 36 - 0 | 36 | Butler | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 21.46 | A Division I Public | Dublin | 99.4% | 43 - 0 | 43 | Gordon Central | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 21.04 | A Division II | Macon County | 87.6% | 28 - 10 | 18 | Greenville | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 20.82 | A Division II | Mitchell County | 91.6% | 36 - 16 | 20 | Hancock Central | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 16.40 | GIAA AA-A | Southwest Georgia Academy | 95.0% | 34 - 6 | 28 | Gatewood School | GIAA AA-A |
| Fri, Nov 22 | 14.72 | GIAA AA-A | Edmund Burke Academy | 89.6% | 28 - 7 | 21 | Robert Toombs Academy | GIAA AA-A |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 13.97 | Smaller Private | Wesleyan | 99.3% | 42 - 0 | 42 | Mount Pisgah Christian | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 15 | 9.37 | A Division II | Early County | 98.9% | 42 - 0 | 42 | Glascock County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 15 | -1.30 | GAPPS AA | Cherokee Christian | 76.2% | 28 - 17 | 11 | Creekside Christian | GAPPS AA |
| Fri, Nov 15 | -25.66 | GAPPS AA | Lanier Christian | 99.1% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Skipstone Academy | GAPPS AA |
