High School Sports

Maxwell first round projections: Georgia’s top rated high school football games

Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)
Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)
By Loren Maxwell
Nov 14, 2024

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Favorite Projection Underdog
Date Game Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
Fri, Nov 1582.39AAAAAADouglas County75.7%28 - 1810Mill CreekAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1576.65AAAAAANorth Cobb81.0%35 - 2312Camden CountyAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1576.14AAAAMarist86.6%28 - 1216Warner RobinsAAAA
Fri, Nov 1575.42AAAAAAValdosta56.6%21 - 201WaltonAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1574.71AAAAAACollins Hill83.1%28 - 1414WestlakeAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1573.49AAAAAGainesville81.8%31 - 1813SequoyahAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1572.35AAAAAHouston County67.4%31 - 265Clarke CentralAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1571.90AAAACedartown66.1%26 - 206CambridgeAAAA
Fri, Nov 1570.49AAAAAANorcross65.3%24 - 195LambertAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1568.25AAAAARoswell92.1%36 - 1521River RidgeAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1568.17AAAAAABrookwood65.0%27 - 216West ForsythAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1567.88AAAAAANorth Atlanta60.8%24 - 204Peachtree RidgeAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1567.78AAAAAABuford98.7%38 - 038East CowetaAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1566.67AAAAStarr's Mill61.6%21 - 192MaysAAAA
Fri, Nov 1566.00AAAAAAHillgrove51.4%22 - 211South GwinnettAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1565.15AAAAAEast Paulding69.0%27 - 207Effingham CountyAAAAA
Sat, Nov 1664.54AAAAAANewton73.7%30 - 219McEachernAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1564.47AAAACreekside91.7%27 - 027Harris CountyAAAA
Fri, Nov 1564.01AAAAASprayberry74.4%29 - 218LanierAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1563.78AAAAKell74.9%31 - 2110HiramAAAA
Fri, Nov 1563.04AAAAACoffee92.7%26 - 026Jackson CountyAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1563.03AAAAAALowndes95.6%35 - 728North PauldingAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1562.11AAAAWare County86.7%35 - 2015TuckerAAAA
Fri, Nov 1561.68AAAABlessed Trinity95.5%32 - 032CassAAAA
Fri, Nov 1561.67AAAAPerry84.6%27 - 1215St. Pius XAAAA
Fri, Nov 1561.32AAAACartersville93.2%31 - 724Westminster (Atlanta)AAAA
Fri, Nov 1560.84AAAABenedictine86.0%34 - 1717Southwest DeKalbAAAA
Fri, Nov 1560.18AAAAALakeside (Evans)78.9%27 - 1413New ManchesterAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1558.50AAAAEast Forsyth68.9%26 - 197Jones CountyAAAA
Fri, Nov 1557.63AAAAADecatur79.9%29 - 1811DutchtownAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1557.31AAAAAANorth Gwinnett98.3%38 - 038DenmarkAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1557.30AAAAAMilton99.7%42 - 042WoodstockAAAAA
Sat, Nov 1656.98AAA PublicDouglass75.3%25 - 1411CairoAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1556.78AAAAAAColquitt County96.8%35 - 035WheelerAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1556.72AAAAARome93.4%34 - 826Glynn AcademyAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1556.53AAAAAAHarrison84.6%34 - 1915ArcherAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1555.62AAA PublicStephenson67.2%23 - 176WhitewaterAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1555.11AAAAABrunswick93.8%36 - 1422Villa RicaAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1553.74AAA PublicLaGrange76.4%28 - 1810Lumpkin CountyAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1553.53AAA PublicCherokee Bluff87.3%31 - 1417Monroe AreaAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1552.57AAAAJonesboro91.3%34 - 1321Maynard JacksonAAAA
Fri, Nov 1551.95AAA PublicOconee County88.4%27 - 621Westside (Augusta)AAA Public
Fri, Nov 1551.91AAAAAThomas County Central99.4%43 - 043Winder-BarrowAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1551.68AAAAAWoodward Academy95.4%32 - 032LovejoyAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1551.56AAA PublicCalhoun79.5%27 - 1413SpaldingAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1550.44A Division IIIrwin County69.4%28 - 208Greene CountyA Division II
Fri, Nov 1550.39AAAAAACarrollton99.8%48 - 048DaculaAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1550.09AAA PublicWestover88.3%28 - 721LuellaAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1549.64AAAAOla83.6%22 - 715Flowery BranchAAAA
Fri, Nov 1548.89A Division I PublicFitzgerald81.0%27 - 1413Rabun CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1548.85AAA PublicBaldwin56.4%24 - 213West LaurensAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1548.60AAA PublicJenkins84.9%33 - 1815Northwest WhitfieldAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1548.49AAAAEastside98.7%41 - 041HamptonAAAA
Fri, Nov 2248.46Smaller PrivateNorth Cobb Christian52.1%21 - 210Whitefield AcademySmaller Private
Fri, Nov 1547.89AAA PublicUpson-Lee82.8%24 - 717Long CountyAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1547.73AAA PublicHarlem79.1%28 - 1711Cedar GroveAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1546.83AAAAANewnan89.9%28 - 721Tri-CitiesAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1546.29AAAAAHughes99.2%42 - 042DunwoodyAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1546.04AAAAALee County99.9%54 - 054Habersham CentralAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1545.93A Division I PublicCommerce76.5%28 - 1711BremenA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1545.63AA PublicMorgan County90.0%35 - 1619East JacksonAA Public
Fri, Nov 1545.59A Division I PublicElbert County71.2%28 - 208Gordon LeeA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1545.25AA PublicAppling County89.7%27 - 621Crisp CountyAA Public
Fri, Nov 1545.25AAA PublicSoutheast Bulloch66.4%25 - 205Heritage (Ringgold)AAA Public
Fri, Nov 1545.04AA PublicHart County80.5%28 - 1513RinggoldAA Public
Fri, Nov 1545.02AAA PublicJefferson98.0%38 - 038MonroeAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1544.66AAA PublicSandy Creek94.6%34 - 727AdairsvilleAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1544.60Smaller PrivateAquinas59.5%22 - 202Holy InnocentsSmaller Private
Fri, Nov 1544.51A Division I PublicNortheast87.6%29 - 1316SwainsboroA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1544.14AAAAAAGrayson99.6%41 - 041PebblebrookAAAAAA
Fri, Nov 1543.94AA PublicWestside (Macon)69.7%27 - 207SpencerAA Public
Fri, Nov 1543.46AAA PublicNorth Hall84.9%28 - 1315GilmerAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1542.49A Division IIClinch County77.2%29 - 209Warren CountyA Division II
Fri, Nov 1542.24AAA PublicPeach County98.1%42 - 735ChestateeAAA Public
Fri, Nov 1541.71GIAA AAAA-AAATiftarea Academy57.5%25 - 214Valwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Nov 1541.42A Division I PublicJeff Davis76.3%23 - 1310Washington CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1541.20GIAA AAAA-AAABulloch Academy61.0%20 - 155BrookstoneGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Nov 1540.80GIAA AAAA-AAAFirst Presbyterian63.7%17 - 134Bethlehem Christian AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Nov 1540.52Smaller PrivateSavannah Country Day69.0%28 - 217Mount VernonSmaller Private
Fri, Nov 1540.46AA PublicBurke County92.9%35 - 1421CookAA Public
Fri, Nov 1540.46GIAA AAAA-AAAWestfield School63.9%22 - 184Deerfield-WindsorGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Nov 1539.56A Division IILincoln County95.1%37 - 1225Charlton CountyA Division II
Fri, Nov 1538.61A Division IITelfair County54.4%21 - 210Emanuel County InstituteA Division II
Fri, Nov 1538.25AA PublicCarver (Columbus)96.0%28 - 028TherrellAA Public
Fri, Nov 1538.13AAAACentral (Carrollton)98.8%41 - 041M.L. KingAAAA
Fri, Nov 1538.12A Division I PublicTemple82.1%31 - 1912Putnam CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1537.91Smaller PrivateLovett91.6%32 - 1022Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)Smaller Private
Fri, Nov 1537.59A Division I PublicACE Charter59.9%21 - 183Jasper CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1537.46A Division I PublicSocial Circle66.3%27 - 216Bleckley CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1536.76A Division I PublicThomasville97.6%38 - 038Bacon CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1536.39A Division IITrion85.8%34 - 1816Schley CountyA Division II
Fri, Nov 1536.24Smaller PrivateGreater Atlanta Christian72.7%23 - 149Mount Paran ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Nov 1536.15A Division I PublicFannin County95.3%35 - 728VidaliaA Division I Public
Sat, Nov 1636.15AA PublicLaney57.0%20 - 173South AtlantaAA Public
Fri, Nov 1536.10AA PublicStephens County94.8%34 - 727North MurrayAA Public
Fri, Nov 1535.57A Division IIMcIntosh County Academy53.3%17 - 152Wilcox CountyA Division II
Sat, Nov 1635.42AA PublicCarver (Atlanta)96.8%34 - 034ShawAA Public
Fri, Nov 1535.05AAAANorth Oconee99.9%45 - 045Eagle's LandingAAAA
Fri, Nov 1533.79A Division I PublicDodge County89.5%34 - 1519ChattoogaA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1533.32AA PublicPierce County98.8%34 - 034JacksonAA Public
Fri, Nov 1532.37A Division I PublicToombs County99.5%43 - 043SouthwestA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1532.17AA PublicSumter County90.7%31 - 1219Union CountyAA Public
Fri, Nov 1532.15A Division I PublicLamar County84.7%27 - 819Dade CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1531.99A Division IIBrooks County96.6%33 - 033Washington-WilkesA Division II
Fri, Nov 1531.82Smaller PrivateDarlington69.1%24 - 177King's Ridge ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Nov 1531.65A Division I PublicHeard County95.2%35 - 728McNairA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1531.13A Division IIJohnson County56.8%21 - 183PelhamA Division II
Fri, Nov 1531.11A Division IIMetter88.9%27 - 621HawkinsvilleA Division II
Fri, Nov 1530.83A Division IIBowdon98.0%37 - 037Taylor CountyA Division II
Fri, Nov 1530.12AA PublicThomson94.3%34 - 727Pike CountyAA Public
Fri, Nov 1529.50AA PublicHapeville Charter98.8%37 - 037Lakeview Ft. OglethorpeAA Public
Fri, Nov 1529.06A Division IIMiller County83.6%28 - 1315Wilkinson CountyA Division II
Fri, Nov 1528.90AA PublicCallaway98.1%35 - 035Miller GroveAA Public
Fri, Nov 1527.71A Division IIJenkins County90.6%33 - 1320Wheeler CountyA Division II
Fri, Nov 1526.63A Division IIManchester99.2%41 - 041Marion CountyA Division II
Fri, Nov 1525.38Smaller PrivateLandmark Christian79.6%31 - 2011Providence ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Nov 1523.44GIAA AA-ABrentwood School79.6%28 - 1612Southland AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Nov 1523.06A Division I PublicWorth County98.4%41 - 041CoosaA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1522.98AA PublicRockmart98.0%35 - 035RedanAA Public
Fri, Nov 1522.58AA PublicColumbia97.1%36 - 036ButlerAA Public
Fri, Nov 1521.46A Division I PublicDublin99.4%43 - 043Gordon CentralA Division I Public
Fri, Nov 1521.04A Division IIMacon County87.6%28 - 1018GreenvilleA Division II
Fri, Nov 1520.82A Division IIMitchell County91.6%36 - 1620Hancock CentralA Division II
Fri, Nov 1516.40GIAA AA-ASouthwest Georgia Academy95.0%34 - 628Gatewood SchoolGIAA AA-A
Fri, Nov 2214.72GIAA AA-AEdmund Burke Academy89.6%28 - 721Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Nov 1513.97Smaller PrivateWesleyan99.3%42 - 042Mount Pisgah ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Nov 159.37A Division IIEarly County98.9%42 - 042Glascock CountyA Division II
Fri, Nov 15-1.30GAPPS AACherokee Christian76.2%28 - 1711Creekside ChristianGAPPS AA
Fri, Nov 15-25.66GAPPS AALanier Christian99.1%38 - 038Skipstone AcademyGAPPS AA

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Loren Maxwell

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