As a general rule, I try not to project what an NFL team is going to do in the draft. Two reasons: 1) Almost any front-office source who really knows what’s going on is going to lie, an illustration of a desire for disinformation campaigns and to one day work for the NSA; 2) nobody else knows anything. But they do mock drafts that generate online traffic, which nicely positions them to later grade drafts and call every general manager an idiot (more clicks!).
That said, I'll mention one mock draft: There is a football analytics site called Pro Football Focus, which sometimes comes up with interesting data, but also is viewed with the same blind loyalty that stole lost souls in the baseball sabermetrics generation. PFF has the Falcons picking a wide receiver in the first round Thursday (TCU's Josh Doctson).
I offer no guarantees. Other than this: If the Falcons draft a wide receiver with their first pick, coach Dan Quinn, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and every staff underling should flee the scene because Flowery Branch is certain to become a patch of scorched earth.
The Falcons need defense. They need it on all three levels: front, middle, back. They need to get to the quarterback better. The need to cover better. They need to tackle better.
I think that covers it.
That Quinn and his staff elevated the Falcons to 16th overall in total defense and 19th in scoring despite mostly pedestrian talent and a dreadful pass rush (19 sacks; Denver had 52) was remarkable. But their only hope for improvement is better players, and they spent most of their money in free agency on offense (center Alex Mack and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu).
The Falcons have drafted for defense in the past. They’ve just too often drafted poorly. In the eight drafts from 2008 to 2015, the Falcons drafted 39 defensive players and, according to my calculations, hit it right on only 10 (relative to their draft position).
Those 10 (chronologically): linebacker Curtis Lofton (second round), safety Thomas DeCoud (third) and linebacker Kroy Biermann (fifth) in 2008; safety William Moore (second) and defensive tackle Vance Walker (seventh) in 2009; cornerback Desmond Trufant (first) and defensive back Kemal Ishmael (seventh) in 2013; defensive back Ricardo Allen (fifth) in 2014; linebacker Vic Beasley (first) and nose tackle Grady Jarrett (fifth) in 2015.
There are three players I would put in the maybe or incomplete category: defensive tackle Corey Peters (third) in 2010; cornerback Robert Alford (second) in 2013; cornerback Jalen Collins (second) in 2015.
Nobody else really panned out. Some were major busts. If the Falcons trade down with the intent of stockpiling picks — back to that shortly — they need to hit on their selections in the first four rounds. Those are generally the money rounds, and it’s magnified this season because they forfeited their fifth pick (“NoiseGate”).
Some of the Falcons’ early-round whiffs (complete or partial): Peria Jerry and Sean Weatherspoon in the first round; Ra’Shede Hageman in the second; Dezmen Southward, Akeem Dent, Chris Owens and Chevis Jackson in the third; Prince Shembo, Malliciah Goodman and Lawrence Sidbury in the fourth.
Only Hageman has a real chance to redeem himself, but making himself seem worthy of an early No. 2 (37th overall) seems a stretch. (Later in the round, Carolina took end Kony Ealy, who made the NFL’s All-Rookie team and has nine sacks and four forced fumbles in two seasons.)
Trading down, or even out of the first round wouldn’t be the worst decision. San Francisco’s 1986 draft is viewed as arguably the greatest in NFL history and the 49ers didn’t pick in the first. Bill Walsh twice traded No. 1 picks, continued to accumulate selections and wound up with nine picks between rounds two and six.
That draft formed the foundation of two Super Bowl champions (1988-89): defensive end Larry Roberts in the second round; fullback Tom Rathman, cornerback Tim McKyer and wide receiver John Taylor in the third; defensive end Charles Haley, tackle Steve Wallace and defensive end Kevin Fagan in the fourth round; and cornerback Don Griffin in the sixth. The nine picks gave them eight starters, three Pro Bowlers (Haley, Taylor, Wallace) and a Hall of Famer (Haley).
Dimitroff helped build a losing franchise into one that made the playoffs four times in his first five seasons. But he has taken heat for draft mistakes and said recently the criticism is "warranted."
“This is eight years in. I feel like we’ve done some really good things, and I feel like we’ve made mistakes. I’ve made mistakes. I have to be accountable for it.”
This is as much Quinn’s show now as Dimtroff’s. After an 8-8 season and three consecutive playoff absences, somebody will be held accountable if the Falcons whiff on too many picks again.
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