There will next weekend be this not-so-small matter of the Falcons getting after Tom Brady, one of the better quarterbacks in NFL history and a lock to carve you up if he has time to do it.
The question: How do the Falcons mount a big rush?
The fabulous signal-caller will play in his seventh Super Bowl on Feb. 5 in Houston, where the Falcons will be gunning for results akin to those achieved by the Giants in his fourth and fifth big games, which New England lost.
When New York upset the undefeated Patriots after the 2007 season, the Giants pressured Brady on 43 percent of his drop-backs and sacked him five times with a modest blitz package.
They sent an extra rusher or two 23 percent of the time, relying chiefly on a stout front four that included NFL single-season sack leader Michael Strahan (one sack) on one end, and Justin Tuck (seven pressures, two sacks) on the other.
In the Giants’ win over New England after the 2011 season, they dialed back on the blitzing, sending it just 12 percent of the time, yet still managed a much-more important 47 percent pressure rate. Tuck had nine pressures and two sacks.
On the Broncos’ way to last year’s Super Bowl title, they pressured Brady 49 percent of the time with four sacks, pounding him despite blitzing just 16 percent of the time in the AFC Championship game.
“Playing against any quarterback no matter what time of year it is when you can affect him with a four-man rush, it’s absolutely pivotal for your defense,” said Falcons defensive end/tackle Tyson Jackson, who sacked Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers in Sunday’s NFC Championship game win.
“You can drop more in coverage, you can disguise if you can constantly get pressure with your front four.”
There’s no debating that.
Falcons outside linebacker Vic Beasley Jr. led the NFL in regular-season sacks with 15.5, but the Falcons don’t have the pedigree of multiple fantastic pass-rushers, as the Broncos did last season.
The Falcons blitzed only 16.5 percent of the time in winning its final four regular-season games, with a 27.2 percent pressure rate, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Falcons’ strength of opponents, and improvements in the play of a young secondary up front all factored to help them succeed while calling fewer dogs.
Over the first 12 games, the Falcons blitzed 21.4 percent of the time for a pressure rate of 32.8. The blitz helped the pressure rate, but compromised coverage as opposing quarterbacks completed 67.8 percent of their passes in that time as opposed to 55.8 percent over the final four games.
“Getting pressure on Brady is important, just as important as any other quarterback,” defensive tackle Grady Jarrett said. “Definitely, having success with four guys would make it better. However you get there, you have to try to get pressure.”
The Falcons blitzed Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson a mere eight percent of the time in the divisional round of the playoffs, yet pressured him on 16 of 39 qualifying drop-backs. That was fantastic.
So why did Smith and Quinn send so much extra help after Rodgers a week later, blitzing him 33 percent of the time.
Probably because Pro Football Focus ranked Green Bay the No. 1 pass-protection unit in the NFL in the regular season, whereas Seattle’s offensive line is young and, frankly, not good.
One way or another, the Falcons had to get after Rodgers, and they did, pressuring him 41 percent of the time on the way to a 44-21 victory.
Nickel back Brian Poole blasted Rodgers twice on blitzes last week, each time expediting throws. One went incomplete and another gained nothing.
“I was excited (about the calls),” he said this week. “I was happy that coach was aggressive. Just don’t hold back. You can’t be afraid of the contact that you’re about to make. You have to arrive violently.”
If the Falcons feel compelled to blitz 33 percent of the time in the Super Bowl, that could be disaster.
Nobody in the NFL was better against the blitz this season than Brady, although the Falcons’ Matt Ryan was close. Their passer ratings against blitzes, according to Sportsradar, were 124.3 and 122.0, respectively.
Brady is a master at targeting gaps when an extra defender or two are sent up-field as opposed to dropping into coverage — as seen in the fact that he threw 14 touchdowns passes against blitzes and no interceptions.
Pressure is so critical it can’t be overstated, as seen even in two playoff games.
In the divisional round, the Texans pressured Brady 44 percent of the time, and he completed just 47 percent of his passes while throwing two interceptions after throwing just two in 12 regular-season games. New England won in part because Houston was so inept on offense.
In the AFC Championship game, the Steelers pressured Brady just 14 percent of the time, and he completed 76 percent of his passes for 384 yards and three touchdowns.
The Patriots surrendered 24 sacks in the regular season, fifth-fewest in the NFL. The Falcons’ 34 sacks tied the Patriots and Eagles for 16th-most.
The Falcons lost second-leading sacker Adrian Clayborn against Seattle, when he suffered a torn biceps muscle.
Bottom line, the Falcons want to pressure Brady, who completed 47 percent of his passes in the regular season when pressured. They’d love to do it without relying too much on blitzes.
“He’s a good quarterback; he’s got good pocket presence,” Beasley said. “I think we’re pretty good up front. We’ve got to attack him in different ways.”
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