I predicted that Falcons fans who are (irrationally) angry at their team for cutting Roddy White and (rightly) fed up with the amateurish antics of its staffers could quickly begin to forgive. To wipe away the egg that has accumulated on their faces, the Falcons just needed to give their customers something good to talk about.
The Falcons certainly changed the subject by signing free agent Alex Mack to a deal that makes him the highest-paid center in the NFL. A day later the Falcons created more buzz by signing free agent wide receiver Mohamed Sanu.
Sure enough, I sensed an immediate shift in attitude among the fickle Falcons faithful. Making a big splash in free agency certainly helps the Falcons give the impression that perhaps they actually do know what are doing.
I don’t believe the Falcons signed Mack and Sanu just to distract from the bad headlines. They needed a center and signed the best one available in free agency. They needed to upgrade at wide receiver and did so by swapping White for Sanu. Both players instantly make the Falcons better.
However, I do think the Falcons need to be careful about paying free agents big bucks. They need a big talent infusion, and the most cost-effective way to do that is through the long-term process of drafting and retaining good players. Being increasingly lousy at that is the principle reason why the Falcons’ 36-12 record from 2010-12 deteriorated to 18-30 over the past three seasons.
Getting out of that hole will take some time. Thing is, the Falcons are in win-now mode because they need people to pay for seats in Fulton Taxpayer Stadium. A day after signing Mack, the Falcons sent him to a media event at the still-under-construction new stadium. They sure aren’t subtle.
That tension between needing to win now and building a roster can be a bad mix in the NFL. The Falcons can’t afford to bust their future salary cap for pricey free agents at the expense of building quality depth. Coach/quasi-GM Dan Quinn needs a lot more good players, not just one or two great ones.
The common thread among championship teams is a strong core of drafted players. Homegrown players are relatively cheap, and the good ones can be signed to team-friendly contract extensions before they can reach an overheated market. The best teams plug holes with cheaper free agents, and then maybe add a big-ticket player or two if they believe that will put them over the top.
The Falcons certainly aren’t on the cusp of contending for a Super Bowl. They have major holes to plug and not much depth. It’s risky for them to try to remedy their weaknesses with quick fixes in free agency.
The Falcons paid up for Mack and Sanu. Mack gets $20 million guaranteed and likely will get another $8 million next year. Sanu gets $14 million guaranteed. The Falcons overpaid to sign Mack because teams that sign top-tier free agents from other teams always overpay (and with mixed results). They overpaid Sanu (based on his production) because the market for wide receivers is thin.
That’s not to say the Falcons were wrong to sign Mack and Sanu; it’s just that big free-agent deals always come with risks in the general sense. There also are specific risks for the Falcons with those two players: Mack is 30 years old and coming off his worst pro season following a leg injury in 2014, and Sanu never was a full-time No. 2 receiver for the Bengals and yet now is getting No. 2 money.
With Mack there is no question the Falcons filled a position of need with the best player available by paying what it took to get him. They hope Sanu, 26, can flourish in a bigger role than he had with the Bengals. It’s reasonable for the Falcons to believe Mack can regain his pre-injury form and that Sanu can be the No. 3 offensive option they need.
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The Falcons overpaid Mack and Sanu with the expectation that’s how it will play out. Now they need to add and develop more good players to fit around Mack and the one or two other elite players on their roster. Otherwise the Falcons will fall flat next fall and their fans quickly will go back to fitting them for clown shoes.
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