The College Football Playoff, which makes its first Atlanta stop on New Year’s Eve, took a sudden turn Saturday night. Three unbeaten teams fell in the span of four hours. They were Nos. 2, 3 and 4 in last week’s CFP rankings.
That said, two of those three could remain in the top four when fresh rankings are released Tuesday night, which would mean not much has changed. Neither has the notion that first occurred over Labor Day weekend: In this collegiate season, there’s Alabama and everyone else.
Among FBS schools, only two remain unbeaten. The Crimson Tide, as coached by Nick Saban, and Western Michigan, as coached by P.J. Fleck. The Broncos of Kalamazoo figure to make a New Year’s Six bowl, but they aren’t crashing the CFP. As for who is …
Clemson’s home loss was stunning/not stunning. You didn’t expect Pittsburgh, which entered at 2-3 in ACC play, to do the deed, but the Tigers have come so close to losing so often — we say, not for the first time, that their season has mirrored Florida State’s in 2014, when the gifted-but-distracted Seminoles were coming off a national title — that it was no great shock when it came.
Even with the loss, Clemson is nicely positioned among the one-loss gaggle. It still has a clear path to a conference title, on which the CFP committee places massive importance. (In the playoff’s two seasons, it has yet to invite a non-champ.) Its narrow victory over Louisville stands as the season’s biggest. That result figures to bar the men of Petrino from winning the ACC’s Atlantic Division, which means the Cardinals remain unlikely to crack the final four.
As sleek as Louisville has appeared, it stands to finish the regular season with one significant victory, that over three-loss Florida State. The Nov. 17 date with Houston has been devalued by the Cougars’ two losses. The Nov. 26 game with 5-5 Kentucky carries no currency. Even though the Cardinals were No. 6 in a week that saw three teams ranked above them fall, they probably won’t climb higher than No. 5.
As odd as it sounds, the Big Ten has the best chance of any conference of putting a non-champion into the playoff — and there’s a real chance that non-champ will be Ohio State, which could rise to No. 2 this week. If the Buckeyes beat 3-7 Michigan State and then Michigan, they’ll finish 11-1. That would get them in the playoff but mightn’t yield a berth in the Big Ten championship game. Having lost at Penn State, Ohio State needs the Nittany Lions to lose either to 2-8 Rutgers or nearly-as-bad Michigan State.
If Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State wins its next two, James Franklin’s team will play for the Big Ten title. Even without the Buckeyes/Wolverines, that game could become a playoff play-in — provided Wisconsin is the opponent. We around here recall that the Badgers trailed Georgia State with eight minutes remaining on Sept. 17. The committee sees Wisconsin as team with narrow losses to Ohio State and Michigan and solid victories over LSU and Nebraska. That’s why the Badgers were ranked No. 7 last week.
(Not-so-fun fact: Two coaches named Miles — LSU’s Les and Georgia State’s Trent — lost close September games to Wisconsin; both were fired before season’s end.)
Should a two-loss Wisconsin win the Big Ten, it could make the playoff alongside Ohio State and over one-loss Louisville. And over one-loss Washington, which assumes the Huskies will finish as Pac-12 champs. (And that’s a stretch. They have to play Washington State, which lost to Eastern Washington and Boise State but is unbeaten in league play.) The Pac-12 sent no team to the playoff last year; it might not again.
Oklahoma is the only Big 12 team with a chance, and not a great one. It’s clearly the best team in its conference, but its conference is tepid and — we note again — has no championship game. The Sooners’ loss to Houston has become a bad loss. Their 21-point loss at Ohio State is yet another Big Ten selling point.
With Texas A&M losing to Ole Miss and Auburn crashing at Georgia, the SEC has no hope of sending a second team to the playoff. Fine. This SEC didn’t deserve a second team. For as hard as the league’s other members keep chasing Saban, nobody is gaining on him. On the contrary, the gap between Bama and the Not-Bamas is wider than ever.
With three weekends remaining, it would be folly to write any playoff team’s name in anything but pencil — except for Alabama’s, which we can chisel in granite. As is, the most likely scenario calls for Wisconsin to slip in at No. 4 as Big Ten champ; for ACC champ Clemson to make it with room to spare at No. 3, and for non-titlist Ohio State to claim No. 2. Alabama will be No. 1 when the playoff begins, duh, and when it ends.
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