Let’s put aside sober deliberation for a moment.
Instead, take hold of the questionable possibility that Georgia Tech, with back-to-back wins over Florida State and then-No. 19 Notre Dame, has finally harnessed its considerable potential and is ready to string some wins together.
If that were the case, could the Yellow Jackets still earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament? Or do their hopes rest solely on the rather remote chance of winning at least four games in four days to win the ACC tournament and claim the conference’s automatic berth?
Bracketologists believe it’s possible that the Jackets (15-12, 5-9 ACC) could still scramble into the field of 68. The next step is a Tuesday night matchup against Clemson at McCamish Pavilion, almost certainly a must win.
It would appear that it will require the Jackets to win their remaining regular-season games — Clemson Tuesday, at Boston College Saturday, at Louisville March 1 and Pittsburgh March 5 — and then advance in the ACC tournament in Washington just to have a chance. That's the analysis of Warren Nolan of warrennolan.com, a website that tracks RPI, and CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm.
“I think they have to beat Louisville on the road and win the other three regular-season games to even be discussed,” Nolan wrote in an email.
The website teamrankings.com, which runs thousands of computer simulations of the season daily, assigns Tech a 4.2 percent probability of making it into the tournament, including a 3.5 percent chance of earning an at-large bid. The site further gives Tech a 4.8 percent chance of making it into the tournament with 19 wins, a 25.4 percent chance at 20 wins, a 63.6 percent chance at 21 wins and a 96.4 percent chance at 22 wins. A 23rd win would probably mean Tech swept its final four games and won the ACC tournament.
If Tech were to win the last four regular-season games, the Jackets would be 19-12 overall and 9-9 in the ACC. They would likely escape the opening round of the ACC tournament and then play a second-round game against perhaps Notre Dame, Clemson or Pittsburgh. A win there would earn Tech a spot in the quarterfinals against perhaps Miami or Virginia.
In this scenario, a quarterfinal victory would be win No. 21 and its hypothetical resume would include wins over probable RPI top-50 teams Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame, VCU, Pittsburgh (all in the regular season) and two more teams possibly in the RPI top 50.
“One tourney win would be cutting it close, but two wins would really give them a shot as one of the last eight teams in,” Nolan wrote.
Taken individually, a win over a team such as Virginia (which Tech beat at home) or Louisville (which the Jackets led by eight points with 13:43 remaining in January before losing by four) does not seem so outlandish. But ending the regular season with six wins in a row in the hypercompetitive ACC , to say nothing of winning two more in the ACC tournament, is a much taller task. This season and last, only Virginia, North Carolina and Duke have managed to win six league games in a row. Tech hasn’t done it since 1996.
“The odds of them winning those four (regular-season games), or even three of the four, are probably pretty slim,” said Palm, the CBS bracketologist.
Clemson has won 12 of the past 13 against Tech, including a 66-52 decision Feb. 13, but the Jackets have consistently played the Tigers close and appear grimly determined to settle the score. Boston College is unquestionably the worst team in the ACC. No. 11 Louisville will be formidable; teamrankings.com gave Tech a 9.8 percent chance of winning. The Cardinals, who will sit out the postseason as a self-imposed penalty for a tawdry recruiting scandal, will be playing their final home game of the season. Pittsburgh appears tournament-bound and has won all three games against Tech since joining the ACC, but all have been decided by single digits.
It’s a long shot.
“We’ve got to win, but right now, we’re just trying to go 1-0,” forward Quinton Stephens said. “That’s our thing right now.”
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