The madness of March has run its course, and with nothing but double-digit victories for the Florida Gators.
Now comes the anvil of April. It’s a different kind of test because every team in the Final Four is tuned and toned for a championship, not just a plucky tournament run. There’s a ton of familiarity in what’s left of the original 68-team NCAA field, too, and none of it all that comforting.
Connecticut, the team that’s up next for Florida in Saturday’s national semifinals, is the last team to beat the Gators, way back on Dec. 2. Also, Wisconsin has earned a trip to the Final Four at Cowboys Stadium in North Texas, and the Badgers just happen to be the only other team that’s beaten the 36-2 Gators this year.
On top of all that, Kentucky could be turning into kryptonite for the tournament’s top overall seed. Asking Florida to beat the Wildcats for a fourth time this season would be too cruel, especially since that potential matchup is only possible in the national championship game.
All of that is concerning, but I still like the Gators’ chances of winning it all.
It’s because they didn’t flinch in the Elite Eight game against Dayton, the round where the last three Florida seasons fizzled, and because at this late stage of the tournament coach Billy Donovan is still finding new ways to mix and match his players.
When one or more of his storied seniors is struggling, or when the 3-point shots aren’t falling, Billy runs in fresh troops from the bench, and all of them with complete command of the defensive system that’s been hounding Florida opponents all season. Donovan already has two national championships, remember. He’s pretty good at this.
UConn’s Kevin Ollie, meanwhile, did a sensational job steering the Huskies through the East Region, with a win over powerful Michigan State on Sunday for emphasis, but he doesn’t bring the same guarantees as Donovan. Ollie, a longtime NBA player, is in his second year as a college head coach. He’s learning on the fly and depending more heavily on the skills of one superstar, senior point guard Shabazz Napier, to paint the Huskies with championship sparkle.
That 65-64 win over Florida in December? Oh, yeah, that was Napier, hitting the kill shot at the buzzer on a rebound that was tapped directly to him, standing alone at the free-throw line. He scored 26 points that night, including five shots from 3-point range, but even with all of that the Gators had the lead on the road in the final seconds and they limited the Huskies’ scoring to seven points below their season average.
No surprise there. Florida has held each of its NCAA tournament opponents below their scoring average, with Dayton scoring 19 fewer, UCLA 14 fewer, Pittsburgh 27 fewer and Albany 11 fewer.
The Gators are better equipped to beat the Huskies now than they were on that close early-season miss. Scottie Wilbekin, for one, was playing in just his third game back then after coming off a suspension. Also, 6-foot-10 freshman Chris Walker was still a month away from being cleared academically to play for the Gators and freshman guard Kasey Hill, an increasingly important part of the Florida offense, didn’t play at all against UConn because of an ankle injury.
Add it all up and it appears that UConn’s one-point victory over Florida will be difficult to duplicate. Take it one step further and the Huskies might actually have done the Gators a favor by knocking off Michigan State, a bullyball team that always has been a brutal matchup for Billy.
The worst of it was when Billy’s first Final Four team in 2000 reached the national championship game only to be stiff-armed 89-76 by the Spartans.
Look, then, at what already has gone Florida’s way. The Gators drew the softest region, with Kansas, Syracuse and Ohio State underperforming, and they’ve played no higher than a No. 4 seed thus far. Next comes UConn, the first No. 7 seed to reach the Final Four since 1984.
Incredibly, the Gators are on a path to win the national title without ever having to face a No. 1 seed.
If this isn’t Florida’s year, it’s going to be difficult to figure out why not.
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