Weekend Predictions: Falcons are home underdogs against Bears

Just when you start feeling good about things, it happens. Everybody knows it’s hard to trust the Falcons. Weekend Predictions is supposed to be more reliable.

I followed my best week picking games against the spread with my worst. I knew first losing week would happen eventually. But why did it have to be so ugly?

I have been sufficiently humbled. Now it’s back to debilitating self-doubt, as usual.

Bears (-1½) at Falcons

Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) appears to be on track to play after leaving the game near the end of last week’s loss to the Ravens. If he suits up, then it would spare everyone from watching Tua Tagovailoa try to win a game. But Penix’s return wouldn’t do anything to answer the questions that popped up about the Falcons’ defense after the late collapse against the Ravens sans Lamar Jackson.

The Falcons might have to face Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (hamstring). He’s back at practice this week after missing three games in a row. But Williams’ return wouldn’t do anything to answer the questions that popped up about the Bears’ defense after it surrendered 428 yards to the Packers sans a running game. I’m backing the Falcons.

Auburn (+21) at No. 1 Georgia

Auburn coach Alex Golesh has a lot to learn about coaching big time college football. He announced at his Monday news conference that star linebacker Xavier Atkins won’t play against Georgia. Golesh needs to study Kirby Smart, who guards player injury information like it’s his disciplinary policy for traffic violations.

The Tigers have lost nine consecutive games to Georgia and haven’t won at Georgia since 2005. That’s back when current U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville disproved the notion that it takes smarts to be a winning football coach. Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton’s superb performance against Alabama gives me confidence that he’ll handle Auburn’s good defense. The Bulldogs are my pick.

Georgia Tech (+10) at Virginia Tech

After a 4-0 start, Virginia Tech has lost two consecutive games that came down to the final play. The Hokies blew a 14-point lead at home vs. Pitt and missed a field goal at the end, then lost at Cal after going ahead with 1:15 left. This game is a chance for the Hokies to get right. It’s homecoming week and, according to 247Sports, the Hokies are set to host more than 150 recruits on campus.

Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, they may be too banged up to prevent the Hokies from putting on a show. Senior captain Kyle Efford announced this week that he’s done playing football because of injuries and leading rusher Justice Haynes is listed as doubtful to play on the injury report. The Jackets showed some character in the victory over Duke, and I think they’ll find a way to keep it close in Blacksburg. Georgia Tech is my pick.

Georgia State (+12½) at James Madison

Ex-Florida coach Billy Napier is back in the Sun Belt where he belongs. Napier won two league championships at Louisiana before going to Florida. Now, he’s led James Madison to its first 6-0 record since moving up to the FBS level for the 2022 season. Georgia State’s impressive run of scoring points ends against JMU’s defense. The Dukes are my pick.

Other college games of interest

No. 2 Notre Dame (-10½) at No. 8 BYU

Notre Dame’s strange mixture of arrogance and victimhood may be annoying, but one thing you can always say is that the Fighting Irish play a tough schedule. Well, you used to be able to say that. This is the first true test for Notre Dame this season. The Irish are very good, but I’m not buying they are 11 points better than BYU on the road. Give me the Cougars and the points.

No. 4 Ohio State (-3½) at No. 5 Indiana

Georgia’s Smart took a shot at Indiana coach Curt Cignetti’s instant success in the Big Ten: “I’m still waiting for the first ‘Curt Cignetti effect’ in the SEC. It’s tough, tough, tough sledding, week-in and week-out.” It’s kind of sad to see SEC boosters cling to the old schedule argument after three straight national titles by Big Ten teams left them with nothing else. I like the Hoosiers as home underdogs.

No. 6 Alabama (-7½) at No. 14 Tennessee

Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer’s sideline tirade at Dijon Lee Jr. for a personal foul penalty was a big moment for people who sit on their couch and say kids are too soft these days. If DeBoer’s outburst was performative, then it worked. Everyone is talking about that instead of DeBoer losing for the fourth time in his past six games against ranked opponents. Tennessee is my pick.

Florida (+11½) at No. 7 Texas

Florida may be fraudulent, but first-year coach Jon Sumrall is great at PR to appease angry fans. Sumrall took the blame for an “embarrassing” loss at Missouri two weeks ago, then defended Gators fans for booing during the lopsided defeat against South Carolina at The Swamp. “They have the right to boo,” Sumrall told media. He’s going to get a lot of practice at this. The Gators play Georgia after this game. I’ll take Texas and give the points.

Other NFL games of interest

Saints (-1½) at Giants

The Giants are 3-1-1 with first-year coach John Harbaugh. The schedule has been soft and the Commanders gifted them a tie last weekend. Counterpoint: Jameis Winston has been Harbaugh’s QB for three weeks. I’m not sure why the Saints are favored in this game. Only fools believe they are smarter than the betting markets. Of course that’s not stopping me from picking the Giants.

Panthers (-3½) at Eagles