Will the NFC South finally be better in 2026?
Oddsmakers paint a picture of mediocrity in the NFC South: The Buccaneers (o/u 8.5 wins), Saints (7.5), Falcons (7.5) and Panthers (6.5) are not considered top-tier teams.
This is nothing new. Since 2022, the NFC South champion has accrued win totals of eight, nine, 10 and eight. Since the Saints and Buccaneers both qualified for the playoffs in 2020 with 12 and 11 wins, respectively, an NFC South team has reached double-digit wins only twice over the past five seasons (the Buccaneers in 2021 and 2024).
But there’s a chance this division is better than some expect in 2026. Isn’t it due? Two of its inhabitants — the Falcons and reigning champion Panthers — haven’t had winning seasons since 2017. The Saints have achieved nothing of consequence since coach Sean Payton left them. The Bucs have been steadily average to above average, but they draft and develop well (and employ the division’s best quarterback in Baker Mayfield).
This division’s stretch of mostly incompetence is hard to fathom in a league that does such an admirable job promoting parity. The NFL makes it difficult to lose over a long period (the Jets notwithstanding). It’s challenging to sustain success — so much of that depends on the quarterback and coach — but the league provides plenty of opportunity for swift turnarounds. The playoffs are largely turned over year to year. It’s one of the great appeals of America’s most popular league.
That’s why it’s a bit baffling that the Falcons, Saints and Panthers have failed to build playoff-caliber teams for so long. They had the longest playoff droughts in the NFC before the Panthers won the South last year. Carolina was an 8-9 team and had a negative point differential, so consider them an uninspiring playoff participant, although they competed well against the Rams in their elimination.
At eight straight seasons without a playoff appearance, the Falcons have the second-longest drought in the NFL (behind the Jets’ 15-year absence). The Saints are tied for the third-longest drought, having missed every season since Drew Brees’ retirement after the 2020 campaign. Eventually, one would think one of these teams would stumble into being decent enough to qualify — as Carolina did a year ago after the Buccaneers’ stunning collapse.
The arrow might be pointing up for this division. Finally, there appears to be a plan for each of the franchises. It should be an uber competitive race. Each team will feel it can win it; each team could also finish last.
New Orleans is assembling a talented offensive nucleus for coach Kellen Moore, especially if first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson can stay healthy. What’s second-year quarterback Tyler Shough’s ceiling? That will determine what this team can become, but the Saints seem to be building toward something after a nice finish to the season (winning four of five). Expect them to be a trendy pick entering the season.
The Panthers splurged in free agency, adding edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd to a defense that improved a year ago. Georgia tackle Monroe Freeling (No. 19 overall) was a good investment in the trenches. Tennessee receiver Chris Brazzell II has physical gifts to dream about, but he needs a lot of refinement.
Bryce Young’s continued development will decide what the Panthers can be. Coach Dave Canales’ offense around Young still doesn’t impose much fear, though. Their over/under number is low because they’re playing a first-place schedule that will likely have them as underdogs in more than half their games.
Despite their disastrous tumble last season, and the departures of franchise icons Lavonte David and Mike Evans, the Buccaneers still have a talented core. And they’re drawing rave reviews for their draft haul, which is nothing new for general manager Jason Licht. Miami’s wunderkind edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. slipped to No. 15 overall, a gift from the football gods after Tampa Bay had endured a tough several months.
The Bucs hired former Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to the same job, and they retooled their defense with an emphasis on edgier, more tough-minded veterans. This is still probably the most talented team in the division, though that’s more debatable than past years. There’s a chance their decline in 2025 was a sign of what’s to come, but the Bucs believe they’ll bounce back under oft-criticized coach Todd Bowles.
The Falcons will be a popular last-place pick, largely because of their unstable quarterback situation. Maybe that’s a good thing for Kevin Stefanski and company, as the franchise is retooling and expectations should be modest. The Falcons have the blue-chip talent, though, to perhaps surprise if Stefanski can maximize his quarterbacks. It’s obviously a crucial year for Michael Penix Jr., and Tua Tagovailoa is entering a prove-it season to show the league he can be a starting-caliber signal caller again.
Remember that the team retained defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who did an excellent job reviving a once-moribund unit. The Falcons will enter the season believing they have the division’s best defense and top individual talent in running back Bijan Robinson. That’s a good starting point, and one worth considering when evaluating their chances to return to the playoffs.
The Falcons had limited draft capital, so they attacked free agency with the intention of raising their floor. That’s the type of approach worth taking in a wide-open division; perhaps the Falcons would’ve had a different strategy if they were in the AFC West, for instance. But the state of the South essentially allows teams to retool their rosters while competing for a playoff berth. The franchise must also get an answer on Penix, because if he (and Tagovailoa) isn’t the solution, there’s a quarterback-rich 2027 draft class awaiting next spring.
The bottom line here: These four teams are more talented collectively than they’ve been over the past few seasons, and the NFL invites unexpected playoff contenders. Maybe this is the year this division begins to look competent again. Or, at least, the NFC South’s worst days are behind it.
About the Author
Gabriel Burns is a general assignment reporter and features writer for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. After four years on the Braves beat, he's expanded his horizons and covers all sports. You'll find him writing about MLB, NFL, NBA, college football and other Atlanta-centric happenings.
